NBA Thread 2022-23 Season

[OttoinGrotto]

It's a bold strategy, Cotton.

 

[MikeSU02]

So what do you guys think is more likely for the Heat next year?

a) this playoff run is a sign that they are a legitimate title contender next year with Herro and finish towards the top of the East

b) this was a flukey one-off, and the Celtics/Bucks/Sixers will regain control, and the Heat will be more of a mid 40s wins, first/second round caliber team at best.

They don’t have the top end talent to be a real title contender.

But nothing is fluky. Spo is the best coach in the league.

Would guess a 2-5 seed pending health.

 

[MikeSU02]

I can't take credit for this because I saw it on twitter, but in the decade Adam Silver has been commissioner 7 different teams have won a title.

In the 30 years Stern was Commissioner 8 teams won the title.

We really are in the era of parity in the NBA.

There was way less player movement.

Silver isn’t that different.

2014: Spurs (last title in dynasty) w/ Kawhi
2015: Dubs first w/ Steph
2016: LeBron (his own category), would have been dubs without Draymond’s idiocy.
2017: Dubs w/ KD
2018: Dubs w/ KD
2019: Raps (due to KD’s injury or would have been Dubs) w/ Kawhi
2020: LeBron

Changing of the guard sort of
2021: Giannis (going to finish top 20 of all time)
2022: Dubs w/ Steph
2023: Jokic (going to finish top 20 of all time)

I don’t think there is any more parity. I just think players move. So maybe there is parity team-wise, but the rule of law in the NBA is the top players win. Has been. Still is.

Bucks and Nugs will be the favorites next year.

 

[Knicks411]

I think Philly would be better without Harden. I know Harden is one of the great individual offensive talents in the history of the sport, but I hate the way his style of play results in everyone essentially standing still watching him.

Harden has really dialed back the isolation play since he left Houston. The pick and roll stuff with Embiid was really hard to defend. I think he is definitely diminished as a player, but he's still good and I don't see how they can replace what he gives them if he leaves.

For whatever its worth, here are some lineup combos did for Philly this season

Harden/Embiid/Maxey together: 1443 possessions, 123.1 offensive rating (97th percentile), 112.1 defensive rating (79th), 97th percentile in net rating
Harden/Embiid with Maxey off: 1493 possessions, 121.6 offense (94th percentile), 114.2 defense (60th), 90th in net rating
Embiid/maxey with Harden off: 930 possessions, 122.6 offense (97th), 110.6 (88th), 98th net rating.

So the main takeaway: Embiid is really good. Him with either one of those guys was killer.

The last two combos i was curious about
Harden on/Embiid off: 1277 possessions, 117.1 offense (73rd), 116.8 defense (33rd), 53rd net.
Maxey on/Embiid off: 1615 possessions, 116.5 offense (67th), 119.8 defense (15th), 31st net.

So it does appear Harden did a better job holding down the fort when Embiid wasnt on. (I wont bore everyone with more numbers, but that remains the case if you filter it out for Harden on vs Maxey and Embiid off and Maxey on and Harden/Embiid off)

 

[Knicks411]

Definitely B if they don’t make a significant upgrade. At least relative to Boston/Milwaukee. Philly is vulnerable though.

Would Bradley Beal count?

 

[Melancer46]

Yeah, if Miami flips Lowry, Oladipo, and picks/Nikola Jovic for Beal I would say that suffices as a significant upgrade. Curious to see if Washington would demand Herro vs. Lowry's expiring but Miami feels like easily the best fit financially, team-building, and asset wise for a Beal trade.

I saw Shams saying to keep an eye on the Bucks for Beal too which is pretty much horrifying to me given what we'd have to give up to make it work financially.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah, if Miami flips Lowry, Oladipo, and picks/Nikola Jovic for Beal I would say that suffices as a significant upgrade. Curious to see if Washington would demand Herro vs. Lowry's expiring but Miami feels like easily the best fit financially, team-building, and asset wise for a Beal trade.

I saw Shams saying to keep an eye on the Bucks for Beal too which is pretty much horrifying to me given what we'd have to give up to make it work financially.

I wonder if Miami would be better off including Herro in that deal anyway. He's signed for 4 more seasons, Lowry just for the one. For the 24-25 season, Herro/Butler/Bam/Beal combine to make $160 million, that cap will probably be in the 160 range, first apron 190 ish, second apron like 215. Duncan Robinson is also under contract for that season, not sure if you can get off him. Herro is solid but i dont think he's anything special and you're probably better off removing his salary from the books and working around Butler/Bam/Beal.

What would a Bucks deal look like? Not sure how they could get to Beal's number without Jrue? But if Wash is rebuilding not sure they would really want him. What firsts can they even trade? I think just 2029.

 

[Melancer46]

I wonder if Miami would be better off including Herro in that deal anyway. He's signed for 4 more seasons, Lowry just for the one. For the 24-25 season, Herro/Butler/Bam/Beal combine to make $160 million, that cap will probably be in the 160 range, first apron 190 ish, second apron like 215. Duncan Robinson is also under contract for that season, not sure if you can get off him. Herro is solid but i dont think he's anything special and you're probably better off removing his salary from the books and working around Butler/Bam/Beal.

What would a Bucks deal look like? Not sure how they could get to Beal's number without Jrue? But if Wash is rebuilding not sure they would really want him. What firsts can they even trade? I think just 2029.

Yeah, agreed that there's a chance Miami would prefer to include Herro anyways. And I think there's a chance Washington would prefer Lowry's expiring too.

Re: Bucks, one message board guy said he thinks it's financially possible to trade literally everything outside of Giannis/Jrue/Middleton (including a Brook sign-and-trade), but realistically, it would cost us Jrue or Middleton.

The buzz in Milwaukee is that Middleton is planning to decline his player option and re-sign to stay long term for like 4 years, $120 million. I think if we assume Milwaukee is serious about Beal though, a Jrue/Beal/Giannis trio makes more sense than a Beal/Middleton/Giannis trio. In either event, I assume Washington would want no part of Middleton or Jrue as they rebuild so it would have to be a three-team trade.

I could see a teams like Portland, Phoenix, and Houston being interested in Jrue or Middleton (maybe not Phoenix for Middleton). Portland and Houston could theoretically offer a path to a top 3 pick that Washington is reportedly trying to acquire.

I'm sure more pieces would be involved, but the basic framework on a couple ideas would be:
Milwaukee: Beal
Houston: Jrue or Middleton + one of Grayson/Connaughton/Portis
Washington: Could be anything with Houston's cap space...Jalen Green, Sengun, Tari Eason, #4 pick, etc.

or

Milwaukee: Beal
Portland: Jrue or Middleton + one of Grayson/Connaughton/Portis
Washington: Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, picks, OR possibly something like Shaedon Sharpe and Nassir Little in lieu of Nurkic + picks

or

Milwaukee: Beal
Phoenix: Jrue + one of Grayson/Connaughton/Portis
Washington: Ayton + filler

Particularly with Portland and Houston seemingly trying to go win-now, I think there's an actual chance that Milwaukee can top Miami's offer if they choose to do so. It would just be a little more complicated/I'm not sure I personally agree with Milwaukee doing it.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah, agreed that there's a chance Miami would prefer to include Herro anyways. And I think there's a chance Washington would prefer Lowry's expiring too.

Re: Bucks, one message board guy said he thinks it's financially possible to trade literally everything outside of Giannis/Jrue/Middleton (including a Brook sign-and-trade), but realistically, it would cost us Jrue or Middleton.

The buzz in Milwaukee is that Middleton is planning to decline his player option and re-sign to stay long term for like 4 years, $120 million. I think if we assume Milwaukee is serious about Beal though, a Jrue/Beal/Giannis trio makes more sense than a Beal/Middleton/Giannis trio. In either event, I assume Washington would want no part of Middleton or Jrue as they rebuild so it would have to be a three-team trade.

I could see a teams like Portland, Phoenix, and Houston being interested in Jrue or Middleton (maybe not Phoenix for Middleton). Portland and Houston could theoretically offer a path to a top 3 pick that Washington is reportedly trying to acquire.

I'm sure more pieces would be involved, but the basic framework on a couple ideas would be:
Milwaukee: Beal
Houston: Jrue or Middleton + one of Grayson/Connaughton/Portis
Washington: Could be anything with Houston's cap space...Jalen Green, Sengun, Tari Eason, #4 pick, etc.

or

Milwaukee: Beal
Portland: Jrue or Middleton + one of Grayson/Connaughton/Portis
Washington: Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, picks, OR possibly something like Shaedon Sharpe and Nassir Little in lieu of Nurkic + picks

or

Milwaukee: Beal
Phoenix: Jrue + one of Grayson/Connaughton/Portis
Washington: Ayton + filler

Particularly with Portland and Houston seemingly trying to go win-now, I think there's an actual chance that Milwaukee can top Miami's offer if they choose to do so. It would just be a little more complicated/I'm not sure I personally agree with Milwaukee doing it.

I guess another possibility would be a Middleton opt in and include him in the deal.

But like you said, if Wash is trading Beal then they're rebuilding so I dont see what interest they would have in Brook or Middleton or whoever the Bucks would move. Those 3 team deals are definitely worth thinking about. It's a lot of moving parts but it does give the Bucks some outs to getting something the Wiz would be interested in acquiring.

Miami can load up on draft picks, if that is what the Wiz are interested in. They owe a 25 pick to OKC (lotto protected, then unprotected in 26). So they could trade 23/28/30, or if they could negotiate with OKC to remove the protections from the 25 pick, could trade 23/26/28/30.

Obviously I guess the most important question is does Beal have a preference, and if he does, would he veto a trade if it isnt to his favored destination .

 

[Newhouser]

why anyone would give Middleton 30 plus million per is what separates the wheat from the chaff in the league. Neither he nor Beal provide value on the court equal to what they make.

How about Perk on ESPN - Beal for Jaylen Brown? ON what planet does that work?

 

[MikeSU02]

 

[MikeSU02]

why anyone would give Middleton 30 plus million per is what separates the wheat from the chaff in the league. Neither he nor Beal provide value on the court equal to what they make.

How about Perk on ESPN - Beal for Jaylen Brown? ON what planet does that work?

Tatum's buddies with Beal from way back. Not saying how it should work / why it should work.

 

[Melancer46]

why anyone would give Middleton 30 plus million per is what separates the wheat from the chaff in the league. Neither he nor Beal provide value on the court equal to what they make.

How about Perk on ESPN - Beal for Jaylen Brown? ON what planet does that work?

Middleton at $30 mil would maybe be a bargain, at least in the short-term. In the short-term, that would tie him for the 41st highest paid player in the league (and he'd likely continue to go down in future years as other player's salaries increase). Guys currently making $28-35 million per year include, starting at $35 mil and working down:

• Michael Porter
• Shai
• Ben Simmons
• James Harden
• Pascal Siakam
• Jrue
• McCollum
• Ayton
• Bam
• Tatum
• Donovan Mitchell
• De'Aaron Fox
• Jordan Poole
• Jamal Murray
• Porzingis
• Karl-Anthony Towns
• Ingram
• Booker
• Herro
• Gordon Hayward
• Chris Paul
• Julius Randle
• Kyle Lowry

How many of those guys are even better than Middleton right now? I've bolded the ones that I think are better. Jamal Murray, Jrue, and Bam are more debatable.

Point being, $30 million isn't what you think it is, or Middleton isn't who you think he is.

 

[Melancer46]

Tatum's buddies with Beal from way back. Not saying how it should work / why it should work.

I would also add that I think Boston could really use Beal's playmaking skills. Having said that, Jaylen is younger and almost certainly carries more trade value right now than Beal does, though if Jaylen gets the supermax he may immediately be a worse contract than Beal.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Lol this dude sucks

 

[Melancer46]

Is there any reason we should take that twitter account seriously?

 

[Knicks411]

Middleton at $30 mil would maybe be a bargain, at least in the short-term. In the short-term, that would tie him for the 41st highest paid player in the league (and he'd likely continue to go down in future years as other player's salaries increase). Guys currently making $28-35 million per year include, starting at $35 mil and working down:

• Michael Porter
• Shai
• Ben Simmons
• James Harden
• Pascal Siakam
• Jrue
• McCollum
• Ayton
• Bam
• Tatum
• Donovan Mitchell
• De'Aaron Fox
• Jordan Poole
• Jamal Murray
• Porzingis
• Karl-Anthony Towns
• Ingram
• Booker
• Herro
• Gordon Hayward
• Chris Paul
• Julius Randle
• Kyle Lowry

How many of those guys are even better than Middleton right now? I've bolded the ones that I think are better. Jamal Murray, Jrue, and Bam are more debatable.

Point being, $30 million isn't what you think it is, or Middleton isn't who you think he is.

Sounds like me trying to tell people the Julius Randle contract just isn't a bad one at all. (Also I think Randle is pretty clearly better than Middleton now. You could convince me Middleton is possibly a better fit for the Bucks, but just overall Randle seems a step above. I would also take all 3 of the guys you mentioned as well. I could be debiting Middleton too much for the injury stuff, but he dealt with the knee injury last year, had surgery after the season, and is over 30. So I am bearish on him)

Crazy to say, but $30 million just isn't a lot of money now. The cap next year is going to be $134 million, $30 million is 22% of the cap. Plus you're probably going to see 9-10% increases in each of the next few seasons.

 

[MikeSU02]

Is there any reason we should take that twitter account seriously?

Fair. Prob not. Probably extrapolating on the rumors that are already reported.

 

[OrangeDW]

I just don’t know how you invest anything in a guy like that at this point?

Is there any precedent for a guy who was hurt like 75% of the games for 4 seasons, suddenly getting and staying consistently healthy and playing like a stud?

 

[Melancer46]

Sounds like me trying to tell people the Julius Randle contract just isn't a bad one at all. (Also I think Randle is pretty clearly better than Middleton now. You could convince me Middleton is possibly a better fit for the Bucks, but just overall Randle seems a step above. I would also take all 3 of the guys you mentioned as well. I could be debiting Middleton too much for the injury stuff, but he dealt with the knee injury last year, had surgery after the season, and is over 30. So I am bearish on him)

Crazy to say, but $30 million just isn't a lot of money now. The cap next year is going to be $134 million, $30 million is 22% of the cap. Plus you're probably going to see 9-10% increases in each of the next few seasons.

I definitely should have included Randle in the debatable category but after the way Randle has looked in the playoffs his last two appearances, I would definitely lean towards Middleton. Agree though that Randle's contract isn't bad either.

My hotter take...I don't think Jordan Poole's contract is bad and I think Golden State should be much more interested in moving Klay and Draymond rather than Poole.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I just don’t know how you invest anything in a guy like that at this point?

Is there any precedent for a guy who was hurt like 75% of the games for 4 seasons, suddenly getting and staying consistently healthy and playing like a stud?

Embiid is probably the closest.

 

[Knicks411]

I definitely should have included Randle in the debatable category but after the way Randle has looked in the playoffs his last two appearances, I would definitely lean towards Middleton. Agree though that Randle's contract isn't bad either.

My hotter take...I don't think Jordan Poole's contract is bad and I think Golden State should be much more interested in moving Klay and Draymond rather than Poole.

I do think that is a hot take. I am pretty out on Poole.

 

[Day2]

Tatum's buddies with Beal from way back. Not saying how it should work / why it should work.

They went to the same HS. David Lee went there as well.

 

[Melancer46]

I do think that is a hot take. I am pretty out on Poole.

My argument is probably more that I'm kinda out on Draymond/Klay at their likely cost points at this stage of their careers, but additionally:

• I think Golden State desperately needs the shot-creation abilities that Poole provides moreso than Klay's shooting or Draymond's defense/non-existent offense
• Poole has averaged around 25/5/4 in games where Steph is out the last two years (and pretty close to those numbers per 36 minutes in general) on good scoring efficiency and the Warriors have actually won those minutes without Steph.

Poole is IMO a fairly obvious case for a guy that could be an all-star in waiting. Maybe he'll always be a guy that straight up doesn't care at all about defense but I think there's probably like a 70-80% chance that if you give him a role as the #1 or #2 guy on offense, he's at least a Zach Lavine level player, who is similarly flawed but has been an all-star two of the last three seasons.

 

[Knicks411]

My argument is probably more that I'm kinda out on Draymond/Klay at their likely cost points at this stage of their careers, but additionally:

• I think Golden State desperately needs the shot-creation abilities that Poole provides moreso than Klay's shooting or Draymond's defense/non-existent offense
• Poole has averaged around 25/5/4 in games where Steph is out the last two years (and pretty close to those numbers per 36 minutes in general) on good scoring efficiency and the Warriors have actually won those minutes without Steph.

Poole is IMO a fairly obvious case for a guy that could be an all-star in waiting. Maybe he'll always be a guy that straight up doesn't care at all about defense but I think there's probably like a 70-80% chance that if you give him a role as the #1 or #2 guy on offense, he's at least a Zach Lavine level player, who is similarly flawed but has been an all-star two of the last three seasons.

It's funny you mention Lavine because one of the Knicks guys I follow recently made a case for the Knicks getting Lavine and he kinda turned me around on Lavine a little.

It's probably hard to parse things out with guys on the Warriors because Steph is the center of everything they do. Poole has solid efficiency (it was really good in 22 but much worse this season and 21) but he does turn it over a fair amount, and more specific to the Warriors, as long as they are trying to win with Steph I still think Draymond and Klay are better fits for that roster. Though maybe could sell me on Poole>Klay.