Notre Dame...

[KaiserUEO]

Plausible arguments could be made for OSU, TCU and Baylor. Definitely not cut and dried. And many factors went into the decision not just the fact that the B-12 did not have a conference champ. That's a convenient excuse. Where I disagree with you is that the two B-12 teams are a pathetic duo. Baylor is favored over Michigan State and TCU is favored over Mississippi in their respective bowl games. Both would be favored over OSU in a bowl game. That is a fact.

honestly i could care less who is favored over whom, its irrelevant.

if you dont see how having a champ game was the elephant in the room when deciding the F4, then theres no hope for you.

granted the size of the elephant could change every year, but make no mistake...its there. and betting your chances year in and year out on making the F4 hoping the elephant is small when you are great, not good...and you dont have a 'champ game' to stamp your entry pass...is a lousy way to bet.

sorry that me calling them a pathetic duo as a way to make a point...made you lose yours...and this debate.

as you were.

 

[AZOrange]

then tell the committee to go themselves and let vegas run the show. i never said they couldnt hold their own, i said that based on COMMON SENSE, they were not going to get in...once the P5 confs that had a champ game had their chalk win. if baylor played tcu again last sat...1 of them was getting left out. if 1 of them played someone else...and lost, that team was out...and quite possibly the other non playing team as well. the P5 are competing for 4 spots. capeche??

If the playoff stays at 4 I don't see how ND stays independent. They're literally on the outside looking in every year.

I suspect at some point the playoff goes to 8...

 

[Alsacs]

BPO
The committee said this year that being undefeated doesn't make you #1. Florida State was rated 3rd by the CFB committee when they played Notre Dame, Florida, Oklahoma State, and NINE ACC teams. However, because the eye test told them FSU could have lost they shouldn't be #1.

If Notre Dame is 11-1 and has a bunch of barely wins and the fact conference championships are part of the criteria the committee has in its own mission statement the Irish would be likely be on the outside looking unless they had a bunch of impressive wins. Notre Dame will need to be 12-0 to make the CFB playoffs for sure. The Big Ten conference SUCKS they beat nobody of consequence in the non-conference outside of Indiana beating Mizzou. Their conference champ lost at home to the 10th best ACC team, but because they beat Wisconsin on a neutral field were rewarded over two teams at 11-1 who didn't play a 13th game. Thus, ND has to realize if they are 11-1 and don't play on championship weekend they can get passed.

 

[sabach]

BPO
The committee said this year that being undefeated doesn't make you #1. Florida State was rated 3rd by the CFB committee when they played Notre Dame, Florida, Oklahoma State, and NINE ACC teams. However, because the eye test told them FSU could have lost they shouldn't be #1.

If Notre Dame is 11-1 and has a bunch of barely wins and the fact conference championships are part of the criteria the committee has in its own mission statement the Irish would be likely be on the outside looking unless they had a bunch of impressive wins. Notre Dame will need to be 12-0 to make the CFB playoffs for sure. The Big Ten conference SUCKS they beat nobody of consequence in the non-conference outside of Indiana beating Mizzou. Their conference champ lost at home to the 10th best ACC team, but because they beat Wisconsin on a neutral field were rewarded over two teams at 11-1 who didn't play a 13th game. Thus, ND has to realize if they are 11-1 and don't play on championship weekend they can get passed.

I think Notre Dame is aware of the following:
1) They will be in the CFB playoffs if they are 12-0
2) They will likely be in the CFB playoffs if they are 11-1 (as long as 2 of the P5 champions have 2 or more losses, which is what is usually the case)
3) They will likely not be in the CFB playoffs if they are 11-1 and at least four P5 champions have one or less losses) which is the case this year.
Given all of this, there is no way ND gives up independence. If (1) above changes, they will join a conference. If (2) above changes, they may consider joining a conference, but will likely not do so.

 

[TheCusian]

I think Notre Dame is aware of the following: 1) They will be in the CFB playoffs if they are 12-0 2) They will likely be in the CFB playoffs if they are 11-1 (as long as 2 of the P5 champions have 2 or more losses, which is what is usually the case) 3) They will likely not be in the CFB playoffs if they are 11-1 and at least four P5 champions have one or less losses) which is the case this year. Given all of this, there is no way ND gives up independence. If (1) above changes, they will join a conference. If (2) above changes, they may consider joining a conference, but will likely not do so.

You keep leaving out the second SEC team in your calculations. The way the committee respects the SEC, it's not hard to envision the SEC title game runner up with 2 losses making it in above an 11-1 ND team (playing one less game vs a quality team).

Bottom line is: if I were a ND fan, I'd hate my odds for making the 4 team playoff ever. I'd push as hard as I could for an 8 team model... Or join the ACC.

 

[KaiserUEO]

You keep leaving out the second SEC team in your calculations. The way the committee respects the SEC, it's not hard to envision the SEC title game runner up with 2 losses making it in above an 11-1 ND team (playing one less game vs a quality team).

Bottom line is: if I were a ND fan, I'd hate my odds for making the 4 team playoff ever. I'd push as hard as I could for an 8 team model... Or join the ACC.

and remember, 6 or 7 of nds wins will be against the ACC & navy...wha, whaaa, whaaaa...boink.

need a 13th game to get over the hump...

 

[longtimefan]

You keep leaving out the second SEC team in your calculations. The way the committee respects the SEC, it's not hard to envision the SEC title game runner up with 2 losses making it in above an 11-1 ND team (playing one less game vs a quality team).

Bottom line is: if I were a ND fan, I'd hate my odds for making the 4 team playoff ever. I'd push as hard as I could for an 8 team model... Or join the ACC.

Re: the SEC--

What if Alabama 11-1, LSU 12-0. Then LSU gets upset by a 2-loss Georgia in the SEC championship. 11-1 ND could easily be pushed aside. Of course, so could 11-1 FSU/OSU. And this is not a far-fetched scenario.

Which leads me to believe there will be pressure to go to 8 teams sooner rather than later.

 

[sabach]

You keep leaving out the second SEC team in your calculations. The way the committee respects the SEC, it's not hard to envision the SEC title game runner up with 2 losses making it in above an 11-1 ND team (playing one less game vs a quality team).

Bottom line is: if I were a ND fan, I'd hate my odds for making the 4 team playoff ever. I'd push as hard as I could for an 8 team model... Or join the ACC.

I think ND will take its chances on an 11-1 ND team making it over a 2 loss SEC team that is not a conference champion and lost it's last game of the season the day before the playoff teams are announced. This would certainly not be enough of a potential gamble for ND to give up its independence and join the ACC for FB. Of course, an 8 team playoff would help ND as it would also help those second place SEC teams with 2 losses.

 

[Alsacs]

I assume realistic ND fans realize they will need to be 12-0 to make the CFB playoffs. Unless they go 11-1 and they have beaten the ACC and Pac-12 champions which realistically every year they could do now.

The committee following criteria must be considered from its protocol.

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

Number 1 is huge and while number 2 is typically strong from ND if they aren't beating conference champions or winning games by huge margins I find it hard for them to make the CFB unless they are undefeated.

 

[sabach]

Re: the SEC--

What if Alabama 11-1, LSU 12-0. Then LSU gets upset by a 2-loss Georgia in the SEC championship. 11-1 ND could easily be pushed aside. Of course, so could 11-1 FSU/OSU. And this is not a far-fetched scenario.

Which leads me to believe there will be pressure to go to 8 teams sooner rather than later.

That is a scenario that could happen and in that case an 11-1 Alabama team would probably be ranked higher than an 11-1 Irish team given Alabama's SOS in the SEC. But if that were the case, there would be many more complainers than just ND. If the SEC gets 2 teams into the playoffs, then at a minimum, two P5 conferences will be out. Yes, the push for 8 will happen and when it does ND's need for joining a conference will be even less likely.

 

[sabach]

I assume realistic ND fans realize they will need to be 12-0 to make the CFB playoffs. Unless they go 11-1 and they have beaten the ACC and Pac-12 champions which realistically every year they could do now.

The committee following criteria must be considered from its protocol.

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

Number 1 is huge and while number 2 is typically strong from ND if they aren't beating conference champions or winning games by huge margins I find it hard for them to make the CFB unless they are undefeated.

I think you are right. The only way to guarantee making it into the playoff is for ND to go 12-0. If they go 11-1, they run the risk of being left out if there are enough conference champions with only one loss or less or other non champions who have one or two losses but a better resume than ND.

That being said, the Notre Dame AD has made it clear that so long as the Irish have access to the playoff (and 12-0 is access), they will not give up independence just to get a more realistic shot at access. More than likely the playoff is expanded to eight and then ND's access is increased automatically.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Re: the SEC--

What if Alabama 11-1, LSU 12-0. Then LSU gets upset by a 2-loss Georgia in the SEC championship. 11-1 ND could easily be pushed aside. Of course, so could 11-1 FSU/OSU. And this is not a far-fetched scenario.

Which leads me to believe there will be pressure to go to 8 teams sooner rather than later.

this was a nice shot across the F4 bow in year 1 for sure.

everybody shouldve got the message...well, im sure the b1g didnt. those 'rs probably think all is right in the world and dont realize how close they were to being left out.

got to figure:

- the bevo will be on board with 8 now.
- the ACC already is
- the SEC will be, because they got to be thinking 3 or 4 of theirs could get in (bastards)
- the PAC will be because those pot smoking surfers will just go with the flow
- the G5 will be because otherwise theyre NEVER getting in
- same reason why nd would be for it, now they can stay indy

so that leaves the b1g. who can play the academic card all they want till the 11th hour when they 'begrudingly' agree to go to 8

imo: a few more messages need to be sent before the groundswell really becomes too much.

 

[sabach]

this was a nice shot across the F4 bow in year 1 for sure.

everybody shouldve got the message...well, im sure the b1g didnt. those 'rs probably think all is right in the world and dont realize how close they were to being left out.

got to figure:

- the bevo will be on board with 8 now.
- the ACC already is
- the SEC will be, because they got to be thinking 3 or 4 of theirs could get in (bastards)
- the PAC will be because those pot smoking surfers will just go with the flow
- the G5 will be because otherwise theyre NEVER getting in
- same reason why nd would be for it, now they can stay indy

so that leaves the b1g. who can play the academic card all they want till the 11th hour when they 'begrudingly' agree to go to 8

imo: a few more messages need to be sent before the groundswell really becomes too much.

Exactly right Kaiser. The idea that we can have a four team playoff with five conferences was dumb to begin with. No matter what, one conference was going to be left out. Bevo is upset now, but had Baylor or TCU made it, the B1G would be upset.

 

[TheCusian]

I think you are right. The only way to guarantee making it into the playoff is for ND to go 12-0. If they go 11-1, they run the risk of being left out if there are enough conference champions with only one loss or less or other non champions who have one or two losses but a better resume than ND. That being said, the Notre Dame AD has made it clear that so long as the Irish have access to the playoff (and 12-0 is access), they will not give up independence just to get a more realistic shot at access. More than likely the playoff is expanded to eight and then ND's access is increased automatically.

Which is accepting not giving yourself a chance at the playoffs for tradition. Which is silly.

 

[Scooch]

Please mark me down as not giving a crap what Notre Dame does.

 

[sabach]

Which is accepting not giving yourself a chance at the playoffs for tradition. Which is silly.

They have a near guarantee if they go 12-0 and a chance if they go 11-1. That's enough of a chance at the playoffs so that ND will remain independent.

 

[longtimefan]

They have a near guarantee if they go 12-0 and a chance if they go 11-1. That's enough of a chance at the playoffs so that ND will remain independent.

Unless the Domers go on a streak of 8-9 win seasons (or, heaven forbid, 7 like this season).

 

[omniorange]

Unless the Domers go on a streak of 8-9 win seasons (or, heaven forbid, 7 like this season).

Let's say 8 instead of 9. Except for 2012 and 2013 with 12 and 9 wins since 2007 - 3, 7, 6, 8, 8, 12, 9, and this year either 7 or 8.

All the 5 consecutive years of low win totals combined with the changing college landscape did was have them give up full independence for semi-independence.

Will likely need another change in the landscape coupled with another 5 consecutive low win totals leading into that change to have them seriously consider giving up semi-independence, IF even then.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[Cuseregular]

I said that would put them in a competitive disadvantage. Ergo 11-1 ND < 12-1 team with a CCG win no matter the conference. Therefore ND needs to get into a CCG because a 12-1 CCG ND has better chance against a 12-1 CCG from another conference. Which is saying that their fan following is irrelevant...which again was your stated position that their fan following was going to be a factor. again, not rocket science.

you had me at ergo.....

 

[sabach]

Let's say 8 instead of 9. Except for 2012 and 2013 with 12 and 9 wins since 2007 - 3, 7, 6, 8, 8, 12, 9, and this year either 7 or 8.

All the 5 consecutive years of low win totals combined with the changing college landscape did was have them give up full independence for semi-independence.

Will likely need another change in the landscape coupled with another 5 consecutive low win totals leading into that change to have them seriously consider giving up semi-independence, IF even then.

Cheers,
Neil

The only thing that will make ND give up independence is if the committee says that only conference champions can make the playoff. That is not happening any time soon. The Notre Dame AD was the driving force behind the playoff and he made sure that this was the case for now. If that changes, then ND will consider joining a conference.

 

[TheCusian]

The only thing that will make ND give up independence is if the committee says that only conference champions can make the playoff. That is not happening any time soon. The Notre Dame AD was the driving force behind the playoff and he made sure that this was the case for now. If that changes, then ND will consider joining a conference.

I don't believe this for a minute. Too much money involved in the playoffs that ND has an unfair shot at.

 

[omniorange]

The only thing that will make ND give up independence is if the committee says that only conference champions can make the playoff. That is not happening any time soon. The Notre Dame AD was the driving force behind the playoff and he made sure that this was the case for now. If that changes, then ND will consider joining a conference.

Agreed that a conference champions only playoff model would likely force ND to join a conference fully, but not sure it needs be a mandated one. First step, as I see it, is to get the Big 12 to twelve and have their championship game. Second step is then the committee consistently chooses 4 of the 5 conference champions for the CFP unless a 12-0 ND is in the mix and 2 of the conference champions are not at least 12-1. That could effectively be the same as a mandated conference champions only model. But we are a long way from that yet.

However, let's end one myth right here and now. When a conference schedules 5 of your 12 games each and every year and you need to get said conference's permission to only play 4 one year and 6 the next due to previously scheduled games and the conference basically says who your opponents will be from that conference over each three period, you are no longer truly independent, you are now at best semi-independent or 5/8ths ACC affiliated. Presently SU gets to schedule 4 of our 12 games, do we proclaim ourselves to be 1/3 indy?

This isn't our grandfather's version of being indy, whether that be ND independence or the old Eastern style independence. I think it best we stop calling them independent since it is what the Irish administration and Irish fans want - for no one to look behind the curtain on their "independence" and see it for the illusion it truly is now.

In other words, ND has already taken a huge half step toward conference affiliation that the purists simply do not want to acknowledge while they parade around in their independence clothing. I'd like to say to the emperor you are 5/8ths naked and the awkward parts are showing.

Having said all of that, like I have written in this thread and others, the Irish are not going to panic over one's year results. Will the landscape change over the next 10 years again to make them join a conference fully for football? Only time will tell.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[sabach]

Agreed that a conference champions only playoff model would likely force ND to join a conference fully, but not sure it needs be a mandated one. First step, as I see it, is to get the Big 12 to twelve and have their championship game. Second step is then the committee consistently chooses 4 of the 5 conference champions for the CFP unless a 12-0 ND is in the mix and 2 of the conference champions are not at least 12-1. That could effectively be the same as a mandated conference champions only model. But we are a long way from that yet.

However, let's end one myth right here and now. When a conference schedules 5 of your 12 games each and every year and you need to get said conference's permission to only play 4 one year and 6 the next due to previously scheduled games and the conference basically says who your opponents will be from that conference over each three period, you are no longer truly independent, you are now at best semi-independent or 5/8ths ACC affiliated. Presently SU gets to schedule 4 of our 12 games, do we proclaim ourselves to be 1/3 indy?

This isn't our grandfather's version of being indy, whether that be ND independence or the old Eastern style independence. I think it best we stop calling them independent since it is what the Irish administration and Irish fans want - for no one to look behind the curtain on their "independence" and see it for the illusion it truly is now.

In other words, ND has already taken a huge half step toward conference affiliation that the purists simply do not want to acknowledge while they parade around in their independence clothing. I'd like to say to the emperor you are 5/8ths naked and the awkward parts are showing.

Having said all of that, like I have written in this thread and others, the Irish are not going to panic over one's year results. Will the landscape change over the next 10 years again to make them join a conference fully for football? Only time will tell.

Cheers,
Neil

You are correct in saying that ND'S independence is not your grandfather's independence but the ACC is not your grandfather's ACC either. One of ND'S big issues with being independent is being able to play a national and not regional schedule. Playing ACC schools allows games in the Northeast against traditional rivals BC and Pitt and even SU. It also allows games in Florida and the South and even Kentucky. They then have 7 games to go to Texas, California and the Midwest and still keep Navy. Yes this is semi independence and when I talk about independence for ND I should as other ND fans should be mindful of the correct points you make in this post.

 

[omniorange]

You are correct in saying that ND'S independence is not your grandfather's independence but the ACC is not your grandfather's ACC either. One of ND'S big issues with being independent is being able to play a national and not regional schedule. Playing ACC schools allows games in the Northeast against traditional rivals BC and Pitt and even SU. It also allows games in Florida and the South and even Kentucky. They then have 7 games to go to Texas, California and the Midwest and still keep Navy. Yes this is semi independence and when I talk about independence for ND I should as other ND fans should be mindful of the correct points you make in this post.

Thank you for acknowledging my point about the Irish not being truly independent.

As for the ACC, it is what it probably always should have been since the 80s - an East Coast conference (since they were never going to be the conference of the South over the SEC). Too bad two key pieces are missing in PSU and Maryland.

In regards to the bolded part, they have addressed this already, imho, with the pseudo conference they have created of 5 ACC opponents which gives them appearances up and down the East Coast, their 2 West Coast opponents USC and Stanford, their playing home games in the Midwest and playing Navy who can take them all of the country (including the state of Texas if need be). Heck, weren't they the opponent recently when the Irish played in Dublin, Ireland? Joining the BiG might regionalize them more so than the ACC, but joining a conference fully doesn't negate a national schedule.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[sabach]

Thank you for acknowledging my point about the Irish not being truly independent.

As for the ACC, it is what it probably always should have been since the 80s - an East Coast conference (since they were never going to be the conference of the South over the SEC). Too bad two key pieces are missing in PSU and Maryland.

In regards to the bolded part, they have addressed this already, imho, with the pseudo conference they have created of 5 ACC opponents which gives them appearances up and down the East Coast, their 2 West Coast opponents USC and Stanford, their playing home games in the Midwest and playing Navy who can take them all of the country (including the state of Texas if need be). Heck, weren't they the opponent recently when the Irish played in Dublin, Ireland? Joining the BiG might regionalize them more so than the ACC, but joining a conference fully doesn't negate a national schedule.

Cheers,
Neil

Actually, the Irish were the away team when they last played Navy in Dublin. An 8 team conference schedule with the ACC would only allow one wild card for ND each year if they were to keep Navy and Stan/USC. Semi independence allows a national schedule but IMO the ACC is the one conference that gives ND the best shot at what it wants if ghey had to join a conference.