Ohio coach Frank Solich retires

[TheCusian]

Doesn’t mean there wasn’t initial distrust. Coaches did a good job of regaining their trust and belief in them. Especially after the season.

Fair enough. I trust your intel over mine, for sure.

 

[zjscuse]

This kinda bums me out I really want to be tested first game to either feel good with what we have or be humbled and make adjustments

 

[TexanMark]

I'm sort of close to the same number, Mark. I think we can hold them to the teens but I think (first game and all) that we will be a bit rusty getting the offense back to firing on all (or at least a few more) cylinders. I'm going to be optimistic and say 24-15.

I will say that it offends me as an SU fan that we even have to worry about this OOC slate, but as long as we can get through it that's all that matters.

The thing I will be looking for is how heavily Dino goes to the running game. We should have a good stable of RBs, and an improved OL. I expect Dino to try clearing the cobwebs and re-establishing better offensive balance right out of the gate.

If Dino doesn't go 3-1 at better...the ACC schedule will eat him up. The only exception is 2-2 and the team gels late to get 5 or 6 regular season wins.

On your point running the ball...we should absolutely be able to run on them. I suspect Dino is going to lean to run this game especially if weather conditions aren't perfect.

 

[TheCusian]

I don't think we are really that far apart. We just have different ideas of what constitutes "success" at the P5 level in a position where Dino has made between $10M and $20M and achieved a .400 winning percentage. It's not the Missouri Valley conference nor the MAC. Dino himself set the expectation of "consistently good instead of occasionally great" and I believe it is fair to hold him to that, both based on his five year tenure as well as going forward.

When all is said and done, it is the offseason and as such all we have to occupy us right now is babbling about past stuff like this. It's not like SU is going to lose the hardcore folks like us, so we might as well yak about Dino, OL's, QB's,WRs, etc. until we have something more concrete to discuss.

Agreed. I think we need to update our idea of success to include the available data is all. We have a lot more info aggregated and it's pretty easy to get. I think straight W/L is an old and overly simple way to look at it.

And I want to win! I just know that if we use a simple metric to fire a guy and replace him with a guy who is similar we might get the same results. If we look at it and are sure that Dino can't do it, we have to get a new guy. I'm just not sure, yet.

 

[TheCusian]

If Dino doesn't go 3-1 at better...the ACC schedule will eat him up. The only exception is 2-2 and the team gels late to get 5 or 6 regular season wins.

Agreed. I can see a bad start/late surge if he waits to pull the trigger on Shrader and he comes on late and plays well.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Ok lol.

SRS takes into account point differential, ie how you performed vs the tougher schedule.

Marrone's 2nd season SOS was the weakest since 1954.

Not totally negated. Point stands - using w/l record without SOS is a lame and inferior way to quantify head coaches

and yet Wins/Losses is what puts coaches in the HOF.

not hugs, kisses and filmed locker room post game speeches after a rare victory.

i get what you are trying to say, but it doesnt work here.

if we are a mediocre team, then beating the other mediocre peer teams to go to a crappy bowl makes for a great season.

if we are a mediocre team, but beat one of the best teams in the country...yet lose to our mediocre peers and one of the worst teams...that makes for a very poor season.

its pretty simple stuff my friend.

 

[Scooch]

Agreed. I think we need to update our idea of success to include the available data is all. We have a lot more info aggregated and it's pretty easy to get. I think straight W/L is an old and overly simple way to look at it.

And I want to win! I just know that if we use a simple metric to fire a guy and replace him with a guy who is similar we might get the same results. If we look at it and are sure that Dino can't do it, we have to get a new guy. I'm just not sure, yet.

It's not like the board is full of people holding pitchforks and torches, coming to get Dino like he's the Beast in a Disney movie. It is remarkable how much support he still has after going 6-17 the past 2 seasons.

I'm down with looking at data, placing W/L records in context, and all of that. But if the idea is that it'd be just swell if we win, say, 4 games in 2021, but man did we throw a scare into Wake and NC State... I mean, there's no data that can justify that.

 

[SuFTW]

If you look at that chart and that's your takeaway, re-read the thing.

How you play in losses can tell a better story that winning vs FCS teams, agreed?

You are trying to obfuscate things. 4-8 is still 4-8. Winning is what matters. Marrone’s job was to win in the Big East. Babers’ job is to win in the ACC. The 2017 4-8 may be better than other 4-8s and hinted at what was to come in 2018, but better than 8-5? Nah.
Put together a consecutive string of 2017 equivalent 4-8s and what do you get?
Fired and a discontented fan base.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

If Dino doesn't go 3-1 at better...the ACC schedule will eat him up. The only exception is 2-2 and the team gels late to get 5 or 6 regular season wins.

On your point running the ball...we should absolutely be able to run on them. I suspect Dino is going to lean to run this game especially if weather conditions aren't perfect.

Totally agree.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I thought Dick's post was one of the most reasonable made on this forum in weeks. This back-and-forth pitting "reasons" vs. "excuses" seems like an unnecessary exercise in semantics parsing to me.

Ultimately, the beauty of sports is that wins and losses are defined. Once enough sample is built up, one can make a fairly informed assessment of performance. We can litigate 2019 and 2020 all we want, but in late November 2021 we're going to have something resembling a verdict. Dino will either right this ship, or he won't. I suspect there will be the same "reasons" vs "excuses" debate going on then as there is now. But we will have six seasons of sample to make a determination, and at that point, the two are really one and the same.

One other thing we need to be conscious of - it only gets harder to recruit if Dino doesn't win enough this season to take the heat completely off. To me that means bowl + we roll into next season expected to make a bowl again.

Short of that it's likely we dig a deeper hole the longer we wait to make a change. It's the brutal reality of where we stand right now.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

One other thing we need to be conscious of - it only gets harder to recruit if Dino doesn't win enough this season to take the heat completely off. To me that means bowl + we roll into next season expected to make a bowl again.

Short of that it's likely we dig a deeper hole the longer we wait to make a change. It's the brutal reality of where we stand right now.

Totally agree. Once the stench of bottom-feeder gets associated with your program, it is hard to get it off. Recruiting gets much harder and the whole thing becomes self-perpetuating. Not saying we are there currently but we are close enough that Dino needs to remove any trace of heat with a solid year.

I have said this before , but as a "vintage" alumnus/lifelong fan (which sounds better than "old") I sometimes repeat myself:

Wildhack has specific metrics for Dino and I bet they are very high level. As a retired executive with significant commercial responsibility, mine were always high level and specific. There was room for gray area and rationalization, but not a lot and not something to fall back on year after year. The management team that reported to me was treated much the same.

Wildhack is not going to go down with a ship that he didn't hire. He also is not going to spend one second lacking confidence in his ability to replace someone whom he feels is under-performing with someone who can do a better job.

Putting all that aside as hopefully something that we won't even need to address, we all like Dino. He is a likable guy. I am neutral on everything related to his aggregate performance to date. The 10-win season bought a significant Get Out of Jail Free card, but one with an expiration date. I'm not off the Dino bandwagon, but I am hanging over the side. I want him to succeed though and can't wait for what hopefully will be a turnaround season.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Totally agree. Once the stench of bottom-feeder gets associated with your program, it is hard to get it off. Recruiting gets much harder and the whole thing becomes self-perpetuating. Not saying we are there currently but we are close enough that Dino needs to remove any trace of heat with a solid year.

I have said this before , but as a "vintage" alumnus/lifelong fan (which sounds better than "old") I sometimes repeat myself:

Wildhack has specific metrics for Dino and I bet they are very high level. As a retired executive with significant commercial responsibility, mine were always high level and specific. There was room for gray area and rationalization, but not a lot and not something to fall back on year after year. The management team that reported to me was treated much the same.

Wildhack is not going to go down with a ship that he didn't hire. He also is not going to spend one second lacking confidence in his ability to replace someone whom he feels is under-performing with someone who can do a better job.

Putting all that aside as hopefully something that we won't even need to address, we all like Dino. He is a likable guy. I am neutral on everything related to his aggregate performance to date. The 10-win season bought a significant Get Out of Jail Free card, but one with an expiration date. I'm not off the Dino bandwagon, but I am hanging over the side. I want him to succeed though and can't wait for what hopefully will be a turnaround season.

I think this is a healthy way to think about it.

 

[orangepassion]

One other thing we need to be conscious of - it only gets harder to recruit if Dino doesn't win enough this season to take the heat completely off. To me that means bowl + we roll into next season expected to make a bowl again.

Short of that it's likely we dig a deeper hole the longer we wait to make a change. It's the brutal reality of where we stand right now.

This is an important factor that is often ignored. The hotter a college HC's seat, the harder it is for him to recruit and easier for rival staffs to negative recruit against him. The longer they bring in weak classes because of that, the harder it is for the next coach to succeed, thereby making the position less desirable to the next coach.
In my mind, 6 wins/bowl-Dino is very safe. 5 wins is a gray area where other factors come in- how's the program trending at the end of the season, how's the recruiting looking etc. Not sure how you can bring him back and expect him to recruit anybody with another season with 4 or less wins. Like others, would love to see Dino succeed-He seems like a fantastic human being.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

This is an important factor that is often ignored. The hotter a college HC's seat, the harder it is for him to recruit and easier for rival staffs to negative recruit. The longer they bring in weak classes because of that, the harder it is for the next coach to succeed thereby making the position less desirable.
In my mind, 6 wins/bowl-Dino is very safe. 5 wins is a gray area where other factors come in, how's the program trending at the end of the season, how's the recruiting looking etc. Not sure how you can bring him back and expect him to recruit anybody with another 4 or below win season. Like others, would love to see Dino succeed-He seems like a fantastic human being.

I'm willing to say 6 wins is a hard cutoff.

I will accept a 5-7 regular season where in a fluke that record qualifies us for a bowl and we win it. An unusual path to 6, but I'll allow it.

 

[TheCusian]

You are trying to obfuscate things. 4-8 is still 4-8. Winning is what matters. Marrone’s job was to win in the Big East. Babers’ job is to win in the ACC. The 2017 4-8 may be better than other 4-8s and hinted at what was to come in 2018, but better than 8-5? Nah.
Put together a consecutive string of 2017 equivalent 4-8s and what do you get?
Fired and a discontented fan base.

Believe what you want, but if Bowling Green goes undefeated they are not making it to the playoffs due to schedule strength. The biggest fallacy we P5 fans believe is that our SoS is about the same year to year. It's really not.

I get it - every year some SEC team fires a decent competent coach chasing wins when they play a top 20 schedule instead of addressing the things that make them mediocre.

 

[TheCusian]

Totally agree. Once the stench of bottom-feeder gets associated with your program, it is hard to get it off. Recruiting gets much harder and the whole thing becomes self-perpetuating. Not saying we are there currently but we are close enough that Dino needs to remove any trace of heat with a solid year.

I have said this before , but as a "vintage" alumnus/lifelong fan (which sounds better than "old") I sometimes repeat myself:

Wildhack has specific metrics for Dino and I bet they are very high level. As a retired executive with significant commercial responsibility, mine were always high level and specific. There was room for gray area and rationalization, but not a lot and not something to fall back on year after year. The management team that reported to me was treated much the same.

Wildhack is not going to go down with a ship that he didn't hire. He also is not going to spend one second lacking confidence in his ability to replace someone whom he feels is under-performing with someone who can do a better job.

Putting all that aside as hopefully something that we won't even need to address, we all like Dino. He is a likable guy. I am neutral on everything related to his aggregate performance to date. The 10-win season bought a significant Get Out of Jail Free card, but one with an expiration date. I'm not off the Dino bandwagon, but I am hanging over the side. I want him to succeed though and can't wait for what hopefully will be a turnaround season.

This I agree with 100%.

 

[SuFTW]

Believe what you want, but if Bowling Green goes undefeated they are not making it to the playoffs due to schedule strength. The biggest fallacy we P5 fans believe is that our SoS is about the same year to year. It's really not.

I get it - every year some SEC team fires a decent competent coach chasing wins when they play a top 20 schedule instead of addressing the things that make them mediocre.

Why are you talking about Bowling Green and playoffs? They are not a P5.
Obviously strength of schedule has relevance in some circumstances but not in how you are trying to apply it to our current situation.

 

[TheCusian]

Why are you talking about Bowling Green and playoffs? They are not a P5.
Obviously strength of schedule has relevance in some circumstances but not in how you are trying to apply it to our current situation.

You're right there ... just a little further

Why didn't we want to stay in the BE at the time of Marrone's 8 win season?

I think not enough emphasis is being put on who we played and how good they were when we played them. Let's get at it from another angle:

You're Wake Forest... who'd you rather see on your schedule, 2018 Syracuse or 2019 Syracuse?

 

[Scooch]

The biggest fallacy we P5 fans believe is that our SoS is about the same year to year. It's really not.

FWIW, our SOS in 2018 was 57th. In 2019 it was 73rd. Makes our 5 win season all the more damning.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

It's not like the board is full of people holding pitchforks and torches, coming to get Dino like he's the Beast in a Disney movie. It is remarkable how much support he still has after going 6-17 the past 2 seasons.

I'm down with looking at data, placing W/L records in context, and all of that. But if the idea is that it'd be just swell if we win, say, 4 games in 2021, but man did we throw a scare into Wake and NC State... I mean, there's no data that can justify that.

It is kinda odd when you think about it. Most people will want Dino back if we go 5-7 this year. Even throwing away 2020 his record would be 28-33, but no pitchforks.

 

[SuFTW]

You're right there ... just a little further

Why didn't we want to stay in the BE at the time of Marrone's 8 win season?

I think not enough emphasis is being put on who we played and how good they were when we played them. Let's get at it from another angle:

You're Wake Forest... who'd you rather see on your schedule, 2018 Syracuse or 2019 Syracuse?

Nah, you are using strength of schedule as a denial mechanism. Just accept where we are, you will probably feel better and be able to run faster and jump higher.
Trying to put some great weight on comparing 3 years ago to 10 years ago is just a dodge to what has actually happened the last 2 years.

We left the Big East primarily for more conference money and stability, not so we could be happy with 4-8.

If you are Wake Forest you should be planning to win against Syracuse regardless of the year to year variation in how good we are. And that’s a one game anectdote involving your asterisk team, not relevant to your claim 4-8 is better than 8-5.

You are wasting your time trying to snow me, I am not the one you need to convince. You should be trying to convince Wildhack that even though our record the last 5 years is 24 and 36 it’s really equivalent to 27 and 23 (throw out last year and substitute 8-5 for 4-8).

 

[orangepassion]

It is kinda odd when you think about it. Most people will want Dino back if we go 5-7 this year. Even throwing away 2020 his record would be 28-33, but no pitchforks.

What's odder is that those same people laughed at Addazio when he was at BC for being .500

 

[Scooch]

It is kinda odd when you think about it. Most people will want Dino back if we go 5-7 this year. Even throwing away 2020 his record would be 28-33, but no pitchforks.

He's a very likable guy, and I think most people are really pulling for him.

I love him being the face of SU football, he's everything someone could want in a head coach*.

*Save for the 6-17 record over the past 2 years.

**edit**
Looking back, Robinson was a bumbling clown, and there was word from day #1 that he was a terrible administrator of the program. Marrone had the results (mostly) but got really ornery starting in 2011, and the circumstances of his leaving were certainly divisive. Shafer was likable and I actually think people generally wanted him to have success, until late in year 3 when it became apparent that the program was trending unmistakably down. He didn't have the 10-3 type season to buoy faith.

 

[IthacaMatt]

It is kinda odd when you think about it. Most people will want Dino back if we go 5-7 this year. Even throwing away 2020 his record would be 28-33, but no pitchforks.

Well, anyone saying that is not that suggesting we'd be satisfied being a "near .500" program.

But realistically, after a 1 win season, that's about as much as we should hope for - stabilizing the boat and being competitive in the ACC again.

But the year after, he has to make a bowl, and frankly 8 wins needs to be the target going forward.

 

[Bulldog04]

Will there be enough tape on them?