Onside kick

[longislandcuse]

There wasn't much time left. Two or three first downs and the game would have been over.

There was 5+ minutes left plus we had two timeouts. You don't onside kick when your defense has played well and you're afraid of them getting THREE first downs, presumably all on 3rd downs since your premise is them running the clock out.

 

[cuseguy]

There wasn't much time left. Two or three first downs and the game would have been over.

There was 5 minutes left. Geez.

 

[Chip]

Yeah they might've ran the ball a bunch

Wait

Everything is below 50% a that point, but throw me in the camp of kicking off, riding the momentum, and seeing if they panic.

Onside kick is essentially do or die. And most times, it’s die.

 

[Chris02M]

Really? They go much more conservative at their 25. Football 101.

they ran the same plays they were running all night

 

[cuseguy]

they ran the same plays they were running all night

It changes when you’re up 2 with 5 minutes left at your 25.

 

[Chip]

they ran the same plays they were running all night

So just kick the oblong ball and hope it bounces right.

Maybe my 8 year old son is right, this sport I seem to love is really dumb.

 

[longislandcuse]

It changes when you’re up 2 with 5 minutes left at your 25.

Apparently we have a bunch of cool customers here. Nobody understands the concept of game pressure.

 

[Millhouse]

I'd put it at about a 65% chance we win if we kick off and put them at the 25.

I think we had a good chance to force a punt. (Execution is much more difficult at your 25 under pressure than at your 43) I think we had a great chance to score when we got the ball back.

You are crazy

 

[cuseguy]

Apparently we have a bunch of cool customers here. Nobody understands the concept of game pressure.

Double like.

 

[Millhouse]

Really? They go much more conservative at their 25. Football 101.

Again,I must have missed the razzle dazzle. THEY WERE CONSERVATIVE AT THE FIFTY

 

[cuseguy]

You are crazy

We may be crazy, but you’re nuts. 5 minutes. Onside kicks are rarely successful. You’re defense has played pretty well. There’s time. Give it a shot.

 

[Bayside44]

You are crazy

65% is nuts, we still don't have the ball.

 

[cuseguy]

Again,I must have missed the razzle dazzle. THEY WERE CONSERVATIVE AT THE FIFTY

Defenses give a different look at the 50 than the 25.

 

[longislandcuse]

65% is nuts, we still don't have the ball.

Oh, that's just me personally based on how confident I was until the onside kick. Clearly unbiased analytics wouldn't be that high of a probability but I'd still have to imagine theyre higher than throwing an onside kick into the mix.

 

[Bayside44]

Oh, that's just me personally based on how confident I was until the onside kick. Clearly unbiased analytics wouldn't be that high of a probability but I'd still have to imagine than higher than throwing an onside kick into the mix.

I would've kicked deep but I'm not on that sideline knowing whats going one.

 

[Chip]

I would've kicked deep but I'm not on that sideline knowing whats going one.

Nothing different than any other coach with 5 minutes left and 2 timeouts. That’s the analysis.

We probably lose anyway, but I swear if they ran out the clock the last thing I would have said was why didn’t we onside kick with 5 minutes left.

 

[rrlbees]

Babers being roasted throughout the cfb world with onside decision and the 8+8=16.

that cfb world probably thinks you go for 2 in the 1st quarter.

 

[iommi]

I felt we should've gone for two. Babers probably looked at his card and saw you kick the extra point in the 3rd Quarter but it was the very end of the quarter and should've been treated as the 4th. You go for 2 in the 4th.

The onside kick was one of the dumbest coaching decisions I've ever seen. Killed our momentum and was not worth the risk. You're down two. Kick off. That was a bonehead move. Period.

I'm not second guessing. I said this on Twitter when it happened. Bad job by Dino.

 

[kcsu]

And you think the probability of turning them over is higher than success on an on sides kick?

Its actually 8 x

 

[jtorange]

What makes it even more baffling is that I wouldn't even call it an onsides attempt. It was more of a pooch kick. It was too far for any of our players to have a legit chance & it didn't even seem like the entire coverage unit knew they were kicking short. Bizarre.

AGREE. Mike L. 0f 1260 sports pointed out that it was a pooch. So ... best guess is it was a POORLY EXECUTED POOCH. Designed to go OVER the front lines of LSU into NO MAN'S LAND in front and to the side of the ONE man who was back to return. GREAT PLAY if execute properly. It was not kicked FAR ENOUGH. SU HAS A CHANCE TO RECOVER if the defense fumbles around trying to pick it up AND/OR if ball takes crazy bounces. Also if recovered by LSU they still have a long field. THOUGHTS?

 

[Cuseregular]

AGREE. Mike L. 0f 1260 sports pointed out that it was a pooch. So ... best guess is it was a POORLY EXECUTED POOCH. Designed to go OVER the front lines of LSU into NO MAN'S LAND in front and to the side of the ONE man who was back to return. GREAT PLAY if execute properly. It was not kicked FAR ENOUGH. SU HAS A CHANCE TO RECOVER if the defense fumbles around trying to pick it up AND/OR if ball takes crazy bounces. Also if recovered by LSU they still have a long field. THOUGHTS?

My thought is our kicker stinks

 

[JoeSU]

What were the odds of us making a defensive stop and driving the ball down the field close enough to Kick a FG?


That's also way less than 50%

Maybe, but the announcers kept mentioning Dino's overall game strategy was to wear their thin defense down and be within striking distance in the 4th qtr. In that sense, we had them right where we wanted them, and after scoring, momentum as clearly on our side. Having LSU start on their own 25 would have allow the defense to gamble more with blitz packages, knowing that 1 big play wouldn't place LSU in FG range.
I would also say that the chance of success with an onsides kick is WAY under 50% when the other team is expecting it and has 8-9 "hands" guys lined up front.

 

[DPCuse]

As great as our D was, we still could have stopped them and didn't. In addition, their D was absolutely gassed. If we recover that kick there was no way they were going to stop us and Dino knew it. He went for the kill. I'm ok with that gamble.

 

[Millhouse]

Defenses give a different look at the 50 than the 25.

Why in the world would we give a different look at the fifty than the 25?

There are so many crazy assumptions here

 

[Millhouse]

Maybe, but the announcers kept mentioning Dino's overall game strategy was to wear their thin defense down and be within striking distance in the 4th qtr. In that sense, we had them right where we wanted them, and after scoring, momentum as clearly on our side. Having LSU start on their own 25 would have allow the defense to gamble more with blitz packages, knowing that 1 big play wouldn't place LSU in FG range.
I would also say that the chance of success with an onsides kick is WAY under 50% when the other team is expecting it has 8-9 "hands" guys lined up front.

College kickers suck. And we could've gotten a TD if they missed the FG. Remember, everyone is saying we had sooooo much time.

One big play after kicking them deep puts them in the type of field position that makes it soooo hard to defend. Only chip can have it both ways.