Oshae Staying in the 2019 NBA Draft

[dasher]

You're completely omitting Guerrier, who has appears to have a better all around game than Brissett and is likely going to eat into his minutes next year. He's already stronger, and he gets to the basket better. He goes through people at the rim instead of trying to slip around them to score.

Guerrier, as the Mr. Inside; Eli Hughes as Mr. Outside; Marek as the Glue Guy and Braswell as the spare minutes guy who can hit a 3 and has some athleticism - the Development Guy.

We have 3 centers not counting Marek, although they are all either pencil thin or coming off injury. If Brissett is back, I think his minutes are going to shrink. Can we get him to stop taking bad threes? He is our best returning rebounder, no question. We really need that, but the rest of his game is not as good as some of the other guys at that position.

I would caution against saying that QG can do all of those things against D-1 talent. He may be able to. I hope he can. But OB has played against the best of the best. QG hasn't.

 

[Brooky03]

No, I think that if he comes back, he needs to show that he has better judgment on when to shoot, and he has to finish much better at the rim.

I meant for his NBA career. Bumping his 2 point shooting to 55% and just not shooting 3s would be the best thing he could do for the team. At his stature, that's not going to move the NBA draft needle, though. If he comes back, he's going to shoot 3s. He's trying to get a good paying job.

 

[RF2044]

I meant for his NBA career. Bumping his 2 point shooting to 55% and just not shooting 3s would be the best thing he could do for the team. At his stature, that's not going to move the NBA draft needle, though. If he comes back, he's going to shoot 3s. He's trying to get a good paying job.

I'm not comparing them talent-wise, but I think his best bet is actually to come back and do his best to emulate John Wallace. I.E., be the focal point, improve his shooting efficiency while demonstrating that he can be a more selective, higher percentage three point shooter as a supplemental component to his overall game.

If he comes in trying to do a Glen Rice impersonation, his limitations will only be exposed even more.

What he needs to do is show that he's got the tools, and hint at the versatility to convince some team to draft him on upside. There are lots of juniors / seniors who get drafted every year, but they have to convince NBA GMs that they have the tool set to translate into 3 and D. He's a good enough athlete; he needs his game to come up to the level of his athleticism, and to show enough shooting potential to suggest that he can be developed into a rotation player.

 

[Melancer46]

we cannot have two of three frontcourt players not providing scoring and rebounding numbers. the only way we can live w marek getting big pf minutes is if we get a big positive surprise at center.

It really boils down to if the coaching staff can get through to Dolezaj about his aggressiveness. He's a much more talented offensive player than Oshae right now. I think we're probably screwed at C no matter how things shake out this year, but if Dolezaj is playing PF, it's because Sidibe came back healthy IMO; I don't see the other two Cs being ready to play right away at all. Sidibe has always been a good rebounder, even while he's played hurt. I think Dolezaj's offense and defense is more valuable than Brissett's rebounding personally.

Either way, Dolezaj is likely going to be on the floor a lot next year if this team is going to have any success. He's either going to play C out of necessity or we'll get lucky at C and Dolezaj can play PF more.

 

[Melancer46]

I would caution against saying that QG can do all of those things against D-1 talent. He may be able to. I hope he can. But OB has played against the best of the best. QG hasn't.

It kinda works both ways though. Brissett (to this point; again, maybe he improves this offseason after not improving this past offseason...improvement with young athletes isn't a linear thing) has shown that he can't score efficiently against D-1 talent; QG hasn't had the opportunity to fail yet.

 

[jgeorge322]

You're completely omitting Guerrier, who has appears to have a better all around game than Brissett and is likely going to eat into his minutes next year. He's already stronger, and he gets to the basket better. He goes through people at the rim instead of trying to slip around them to score.

Guerrier, as the Mr. Inside; Eli Hughes as Mr. Outside; Marek as the Glue Guy and Braswell as the spare minutes guy who can hit a 3 and has some athleticism - the Development Guy.

We have 3 centers not counting Marek, although they are all either pencil thin or coming off injury. If Brissett is back, I think his minutes are going to shrink. Can we get him to stop taking bad threes? He is our best returning rebounder, no question. We really need that, but the rest of his game is not as good as some of the other guys at that position.

I have to agree that this post is very speculative although we all hope youre right. Even if true, however, the team is better with both players.

 

[chugg21]

we cannot have two of three frontcourt players not providing scoring and rebounding numbers. the only way we can live w marek getting big pf minutes is if we get a big positive surprise at center.

It depends if scoring is all that you care about or if creating offense matters as well. Marek creates for others significantly more than Oshae does. Marek scoring 10 pts with 4 assists may produce more pts than Oshae scoring 15 with 2. Marek was #2 among players that got regular mins in Asts per 40 and I think that will rise with there likely being a significant rise in ball movement next year.

PS: Sidibe's per 40 fouls is incredible.

 

[billsin01]

Eli is more athletic than Oshae and shoots 3's well. Oshae is 2 inches taller and they're the same age. Eli's handle is limited but better than Oshae's.

It's height and rebounding (Oshae) vs. athleticism and shooting (Eli). The NBA has been favoring Eli type players moreso than Brissett types.

Brissett needs to come back and show he can hit 3's (without killing the team).

The thing is, he's already done the above -- 38% for the entire ACC sked in 17-18 -- but obvoiusly really struggled shooting the ball for whatever reason this season. To me, much of this debate centers on Oshae's inefficiency around the rim for two years (though it actually improved by the numbers last year from 'atrocious' to 'not terrible, but not real good either.'

The Hughes take is interesting to me. I really saw him as a player who showed nice offensive potential but was really inconsistent on both ends of the floor and demonstrated nice but not elite athleticism. For example, he played really well through the non-conference slate (struggled shooting against eastern wash but grabbed 7 boards and had three steals, bit of a no-show against cornell, but otherwise played well) and played well through the first four conference games.

but after that point, he was held to single-figures scoring 7 times in our last 16 games and even when he played OK in some of those other games, there were some notable holes (needed his offense vs. FSU but he grabbed 2 rebounds in 37 minutes in that game; played well against Baylor but had just three boards).

But to me the biggest issue is this: Dude grabbed 5 or more boards four times in our last 16 games.

So, the argument to me is that we really need both of these guys doing what they do well and we need Guerrier to come in and add something as well. There is no way we can rebound with our roster if we don't have brissett fighting off two guys for boards most of the time, and we are going to struggle to score if we don't have Hughes stretching the floor. We really need both players.

The question is how well each player can address the obvious weaknesses in their games. I personally thought Brissett was fine on defense and is a really good rebounder (he's already top 40 and there are only five guys ahead of him who've played fewer than 100 games and the last one of those guys who played here was Rudy Hackett, who graduated in '75, obviously a completely different era). The shot is a little funky and he struggled with it this year, but I think he's capable of making that shot so it doesn't worry me that much (especially in a scenario with at least three or four other shooters on the roster). He just needs to improve the footwork and style with which he attacks in the paint. I actually think he got better here, but he needs to continue to improve.

Hughes, IMO, needs to round out his overall game. In the pre-conference sked he did a nice job of still being a big factor offensively even if he wasn't knocking down three or four (or more) 3s. That was exceptionally rare in conference (at Wake was the only time he put up 15+ points while knocking down fewer than 3 threes). He had a bunch of games where he was basically zero help on the boards. He was OK defensively and was good for a highlight defensive play throughout the year, but he also was late on those slides when he needed to cover the middle of the floor quite often. He also was really limited in terms of passing (no doubt in part due to our lack of movement as a whole offensively). With his shooting, if he can pump and draw and man then dish, or curl hard off a screen and make a play going to the basket, he should be able to be a kid who averages closer to 3 assists a game.

Bottom line for me, though, is we need both of these guys and anyone who thinks Brissett leaving doesn't create a massive void in our ability to at least be mediocre on the defensive glass either knows something about Guerrier that I don't (a distinct possibility) or they are dreaming (also a distinct possibility).

 

[billsin01]

It kinda works both ways though. Brissett (to this point; again, maybe he improves this offseason after not improving this past offseason...improvement with young athletes isn't a linear thing) has shown that he can't score efficiently against D-1 talent; QG hasn't had the opportunity to fail yet.

Think this is a bit unfair to Oshae who actually improved his shooting on twos from .366 to .445. It's not incredible improvement but if he can do something similar again and get to around 50% inside and then improve his 3-point shooting (which he's clearly capable of doing -- he did it as a freshman), he could easily have the type of year we thought he might have this season.

 

[billsin01]

It depends if scoring is all that you care about or if creating offense matters as well. Marek creates for others significantly more than Oshae does. Marek scoring 10 pts with 4 assists may produce more pts than Oshae scoring 15 with 2. Marek was #2 among players that got regular mins in Asts per 40 and I think that will rise with there likely being a significant rise in ball movement next year.

PS: Sidibe's per 40 fouls is incredible.

I don't disagree with this but all of this is predicated on having an offense that features more ball-movement. I would have to think Oshae would benefit from that as well. Obviously Marek is a good piece with his passing ability but ideally we would see guys like Hughes/Brissett, etc. benefit from that improvement as well.

 

[pfister1]

Yup. They also understand next year is an NBA audition - no different than Tyus this year.

He’d get more latitude.

Wasn’t the first 2/3 of this year an NBA audition also, not sure I want more of that if it’s going to cause us to fail to reach the teams ceiling.

 

[Melancer46]

Think this is a bit unfair to Oshae who actually improved his shooting on twos from .366 to .445. It's not incredible improvement but if he can do something similar again and get to around 50% inside and then improve his 3-point shooting (which he's clearly capable of doing -- he did it as a freshman), he could easily have the type of year we thought he might have this season.

All that improvement got him up to being merely below average at the rim and pathetic from mid-range on top of being bad from the 3 point line and foul line. He’s literally a poor scorer at every area of the court and is more likely to turn it over than to assist someone.

 

[tbonezone]

beck at 83 all-time oshae at 90.

link:Syracuse Orange Career Leaders In Assists

1.56 vs 1.34 per game split. gotta factor in OB's edge in minutes mind you. 1770 / 2532.

(list shows frank howard at #10. 3.32 per.)

 

[billsin01]

All that improvement got him up to being merely below average at the rim and pathetic from mid-range on top of being bad from the 3 point line and foul line. He’s literally a poor scorer at every area of the court and is more likely to turn it over than to assist someone.

I don't really disagree, I was merely pointing out that he actually improved inside the arc. Nowhere near as much as we would like, but it wasn't like he regressed in that area or was as bad as he was as a frosh. So I think we can reasonably expect improvement. You're also leaving out the areas where Brissett has proven to be an asset: he's the best rebounder we have by miles (he averaged close to as many boards as Hughes and Dolezaj combined) and he's a solid defensive player. He's also shown the ability to hit the three (he was truly outstanding in ACC play in 17-18) and get to the line and make those shots (79% on 6 FTs per game).

So I'd argue all we really, truly know is that OB had a disappointing year but has some discernable skills and a chance to improve and that QG is a solid recruit who should be able to contribute immediately.

But if I was predicting what would happen if QG comes in and is an immediate impact type of kid next season, I would expect that the majority of his minutes would come with Brissett on the floor and Hughes on the bench as opposed to at the expense of Brissett's minutes. Not saying it couldn't happen, but that would be the most likely scenario, IMO. We simply can't live without Brissett's size and rebounding unless QG somehow is a beast as a frosh, which is unlikely.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Eli is the better offensive player and has a skill set the NBA can use. He's slightly undersized for SF and needs to come up with a better handle, but he shoots well and has plenty of athleticism. You usually get two SFs or a SG playing SF with a traditional SF playing "PF". IF (IF, IF, IF) Guerrier is good, the team would be more than fine playing him and Eli together.

Yes, I agree. If Hughes wants to have a shot at the pros, he has to dribble and drive better.

He has to present a threat to get to the rim if someone presses up on his 3 point shot.

If he could drive as well as Tyus, he could make the end of the first round.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Eli is more athletic than Oshae and shoots 3's well. Oshae is 2 inches taller and they're the same age. Eli's handle is limited but better than Oshae's.

It's height and rebounding (Oshae) vs. athleticism and shooting (Eli). The NBA has been favoring Eli type players moreso than Brissett types.

Brissett needs to come back and show he can hit 3's (without killing the team).

Eli is not quite at the level of Wes Johnson, but he gets more than his share of weak side blocked shots. He has good springs.

 

[Dinkyspond]

He is. He's the last person on the team I'd be concerned with dragging down our APR.

Your APR goes down if a player doesn't complete the semester. It would be the same if the player flunked out and was ruled academically ineligible. OB could have 4.0 but if he withdrew or got an incomplete for the semester we would take an APR hit.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Wasn’t the first 2/3 of this year an NBA audition also, not sure I want more of that if it’s going to cause us to fail to reach the teams ceiling.

Precisely. I've seen enough, thanks.

 

[IthacaMatt]

It kinda works both ways though. Brissett (to this point; again, maybe he improves this offseason after not improving this past offseason...improvement with young athletes isn't a linear thing) has shown that he can't score efficiently against D-1 talent; QG hasn't had the opportunity to fail yet.

Yes, but Guerrier already was 10 pounds heavier as a HS senior than Brissett was as a college sophomore. When you look at Guerrier, his arms are more developed. You watch his tape and he powers through people when he drives to the rim, not unlike C.J. Fair going to the rim along the baseline. That's what I see in his game.

I remember that Boeheim was shocked when Melo showed up on campus at 210 and finished the season at 220, after being 190 as a HS senior. That's why Melo dominated. He was physically more mature, and he had mad skills.

I'm not saying that Guerrier is Melo, but he can do all the things C.J. Fair did as about a sophomore. I think if you give him 25 minutes a game, you will get more than you will from Brissett next year.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

You're completely omitting Guerrier, who has appears to have a better all around game than Brissett and is likely going to eat into his minutes next year. He's already stronger, and he gets to the basket better. He goes through people at the rim instead of trying to slip around them to score.

Guerrier, as the Mr. Inside; Eli Hughes as Mr. Outside; Marek as the Glue Guy and Braswell as the spare minutes guy who can hit a 3 and has some athleticism - the Development Guy.

We have 3 centers not counting Marek, although they are all either pencil thin or coming off injury. If Brissett is back, I think his minutes are going to shrink. Can we get him to stop taking bad threes? He is our best returning rebounder, no question. We really need that, but the rest of his game is not as good as some of the other guys at that position.

Man we sure love players who haven’t played a minute for us and hate those who have on this forum. I like the team a lot better with both on it. I think Mareks getting most of his minutes at center this year that position scares me.

And when your center is that thin you want the 4 to by physically developed like Oshae is.

 

[Sherman20]

The thing is, he's already done the above -- 38% for the entire ACC sked in 17-18 -- but obvoiusly really struggled shooting the ball for whatever reason this season. To me, much of this debate centers on Oshae's inefficiency around the rim for two years (though it actually improved by the numbers last year from 'atrocious' to 'not terrible, but not real good either.'

The Hughes take is interesting to me. I really saw him as a player who showed nice offensive potential but was really inconsistent on both ends of the floor and demonstrated nice but not elite athleticism. For example, he played really well through the non-conference slate (struggled shooting against eastern wash but grabbed 7 boards and had three steals, bit of a no-show against cornell, but otherwise played well) and played well through the first four conference games.

but after that point, he was held to single-figures scoring 7 times in our last 16 games and even when he played OK in some of those other games, there were some notable holes (needed his offense vs. FSU but he grabbed 2 rebounds in 37 minutes in that game; played well against Baylor but had just three boards).

But to me the biggest issue is this: Dude grabbed 5 or more boards four times in our last 16 games.

So, the argument to me is that we really need both of these guys doing what they do well and we need Guerrier to come in and add something as well. There is no way we can rebound with our roster if we don't have brissett fighting off two guys for boards most of the time, and we are going to struggle to score if we don't have Hughes stretching the floor. We really need both players.

The question is how well each player can address the obvious weaknesses in their games. I personally thought Brissett was fine on defense and is a really good rebounder (he's already top 40 and there are only five guys ahead of him who've played fewer than 100 games and the last one of those guys who played here was Rudy Hackett, who graduated in '75, obviously a completely different era). The shot is a little funky and he struggled with it this year, but I think he's capable of making that shot so it doesn't worry me that much (especially in a scenario with at least three or four other shooters on the roster). He just needs to improve the footwork and style with which he attacks in the paint. I actually think he got better here, but he needs to continue to improve.

Hughes, IMO, needs to round out his overall game. In the pre-conference sked he did a nice job of still being a big factor offensively even if he wasn't knocking down three or four (or more) 3s. That was exceptionally rare in conference (at Wake was the only time he put up 15+ points while knocking down fewer than 3 threes). He had a bunch of games where he was basically zero help on the boards. He was OK defensively and was good for a highlight defensive play throughout the year, but he also was late on those slides when he needed to cover the middle of the floor quite often. He also was really limited in terms of passing (no doubt in part due to our lack of movement as a whole offensively). With his shooting, if he can pump and draw and man then dish, or curl hard off a screen and make a play going to the basket, he should be able to be a kid who averages closer to 3 assists a game.

Bottom line for me, though, is we need both of these guys and anyone who thinks Brissett leaving doesn't create a massive void in our ability to at least be mediocre on the defensive glass either knows something about Guerrier that I don't (a distinct possibility) or they are dreaming (also a distinct possibility).

Great post.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Man we sure love players who haven’t played a minute for us and hate those who have on this forum. I like the team a lot better with both on it. I think Mareks getting most of his minutes at center this year that position scares me.

And when your center is that thin you want the 4 to by physically developed like Oshae is.

I trust my eyes. Guerrier is very good.
I repeat - he is already bigger and stronger as a HS senior than Brissett was as a college sophomore.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I have to agree that this post is very speculative although we all hope youre right. Even if true, however, the team is better with both players.

Thanks, but not everyone can play. There are only 200 minutes to go around.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

I trust my eyes. Guerrier is very good.
I repeat - he is already bigger and stronger as a HS senior than Brissett was as a college sophomore.

He hasn’t played a minute for us. What was everyone saying about Carey last summer and after the first handful of games? Oshae is a good player who’s shown many hints of being able to put it all together. Plays pretty good D, passes pretty well, rebounds.

Yes he’s frustrating just when he started finishing through contact around the rim regularly he went from an 80% free throw shooter to worse than Shaq. But I still want the guy on my team. We could have a top 10 player in the country if he puts it together.

And assuming your right about Guerrier I want him in a lesser role I am sooooooo sick and tired of decent freshmen getting NBA chatter ever since it started with Ennis it’s happened with friggen everyone and gone straight to their heads. Every 1 and done since Melo we’ve had might have gone first round but their NBA careers have been embarrassingly short and bad and they were good players that might have stuck if they entered pro ball older and more developed. The 1 and dones weren’t on a different level to Dion or Jeremy who came back and have had solid careers.

 

[rrlbees]

I trust my eyes. Guerrier is very good.
I repeat - he is already bigger and stronger as a HS senior than Brissett was as a college sophomore.

watching their mixtapes, they're twins. all dunks and 3's. they both had the same success in Canada too.