Per ESPN

[two3zone]

The line is absurd.
Houston should be favored they earned it but 6 is a lot of points.

We have played well and the players on our team have played 2 complete good games. We beat WVU they didn’t give us that game.
Houston is a great team but they aren’t peaking right now.

I would have this game Houston -1.5.

Rutgers was 7 point underdogs.

If we have 2 players on offense that are on I think we win.

Houston needs Grimes and their offensive rebounding.
Grimes would have to copy #22 from WVU and their second chance points to beat us.

The line really has nothing to do with the game, all Vegas is doing is trying to get money on Houston so they don’t lose their shirt if Cuse wins.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We have covered 7 straight games.

 

[supp]

jncuse broke it down.
Vegas uses the Ken Pomeroy information in making the lines.
Pomroy has Houston as a 7 point favorite.

Vegas opened it at Houston -6.5.
It’s down to 6.

If it's only moved half a point, can the betting really be so heavy on SU?

 

[Alsacs]

If it's only moved half a point, can the betting really be so heavy on SU?

I don’t think the lines move much till late. Also the volume of the bets may not matter if there are smaller bets.

I don’t like how most of the gamblers I have seen like Cuse points and under.

That is a jinx. The O/U is 140.

 

[CorduroyG]

60% of the time - it works every time.

90% of the game is mental. the other half is physical.

 

[Arangeman]

jncuse broke it down.
Vegas uses the Ken Pomeroy information in making the lines.
Pomroy has Houston as a 7 point favorite.

Vegas opened it at Houston -6.5.
It’s down to 6.

It’s 6.5 across the board. VI has it opening at 6.

 

[orangeinnyc]

The fact that Vegas made the line this big is concerning

Vegas is almost ALWAYS on the money with their lines. Def a bit concerning IMo

 

[CousCuse]

View attachment 198807

He have his jersey over his head and be in a world of pain.

 

[CousCuse]

Do you have any idea how many spectators are even in allowed in games.

3-5 points just spew more made up crap.

We played in front of no fans at home and had our best home record since 2012.
Good point though.

Would have been undefeated at home if there were fans at the Pitt game. Maybe more than 5, the crowd at Hinkle really got Buckets in overdrive against the Aztecs. So I will conjecture 9 based on that empiricle evidence.

 

[721Comstock]

Vegas is almost ALWAYS on the money with their lines. Def a bit concerning IMo

Except for all of the times they are not.

Like our last 2 NCAA games, for instance.
We were 'dogs in both.

 

[UpstateSM]

Not so worried about their rebounding stats against AAC teams. That number is made of smoke.

Their offensive rebounding % was higher against Rutgers than their season average. Not made of smoke.

 

[Fly Rodder]

We want Lunardi and Seth Davis to pick against us. They are mushes.

Davis picked SU today in his Athletic S16 breakdown.

 

[721Comstock]

Davis picked SU today in his Athletic S16 breakdown.

FFFFFF!!!! WE'RE DOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!

 

[CuseBBall]

It’s 6.5 across the board. VI has it opening at 6.

If the line opened at 6 and is now up to 6.5 everywhere, and 74% of the bets are coming in on Cuse it likely means all the big bets (“sharps”) are coming in on Houston

 

[orangeinnyc]

Except for all of the times they are not.

Like our last 2 NCAA games, for instance.
We were 'dogs in both.

The majority of the time their lines are scary accurate, I know my best friend/old Roomate is in that business. Don’t shoot the messenger, just saying it’s a bit concerning if that’s what Vegas thinks.

 

[Orangemen]

If the line is based on a season long system, it’s going to under rate us. We’re a better team than a month or two months ago.

 

[CousCuse]

The majority of the time their lines are scary accurate, I know my best friend/old Roomate is in that business. Don’t shoot the messenger, just saying it’s a bit concerning if that’s what Vegas thinks.

SU were big dogs in the first 2 games.

 

[orangeinnyc]

SU were big dogs in the first 2 games.

Which makes this even more surprising. You’d think Vegas learned from their earlier mistakes

 

[Orangemen]

The majority of the time their lines are scary accurate, I know my best friend/old Roomate is in that business. Don’t shoot the messenger, just saying it’s a bit concerning if that’s what Vegas thinks.

We don’t need them to be wrong the majority of the time. To win this game they only need to be wrong once.

 

[orangeinnyc]

We don’t need them to be wrong the majority of the time. To win this game they only need to be wrong once.

That’s a whole different subject! But you are correct. Danny beat Kevin down Cherry Hill one time and that’s all that mattered!!!

 

[Alsacs]

Davis picked SU today in his Athletic S16 breakdown.

Damn it. Need the guy to pick Houston on TV.

 

[Alsacs]

I'm not basing the point advantage on any gambling strategy. I'm giving the Orange points based on: 3 points for having home floor crowd at Hinkle, 3 points for them defeating SDSU in a tourney game there and 3 points for that is the exact location that the legend of Buddy Buckets went viral. See all nice and logical.

Good job good effort.

 

[UpstateSM]

The best sports bettors in the world are lucky to hit 60% of their plays consistently

 

[Alsacs]

The best sports bettors in the world are lucky to hit 60% of their plays consistently

Exactly if I am 50-55% I am ecstatic.
Nobody is consistently better than 60%.

 

[721Comstock]

Which makes this even more surprising. You’d think Vegas learned from their earlier mistakes

What earlier mistakes??

Vegas' sole objective is to try to balance the action on both sides of the betting line.
Period. Full stop.

The lines rise and fall until some semblance of that balance is achieved.

Houston has been Top 25 all season, 2 seed, won a lot of games.
(most of which against the crap AAC, but whatever)

OF COURSE they are going to be favored.

Could they beat us by 7 or more?
Absolutely.
Will they?
That's why they play the games.


I'll refer back to my post from another thread, so you can see the actual stats for the NCAA teams IN MARCH.

Houston is 4th overall.
We're 3rd O, 5th D.

BUT - the biggest difference is, the quality (or lack therof, for the Cougars) that those stats were compiled against.

Houston Pregame Analysis

I have not seen Houston play this year except the Rutgers game. They're certainly physical, but not intimidating in size. They should've lost to Rutgers, if not for Rutgers well... being Rutgers (choke job). If we can penetrate and Quincy brings his A game, I think we can beat this team. We...

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