Saint Dougie...

[CousCuse]

I don't really care. Even the Jaguars didn't complain about the refs. Get over it.

I still haven't gotten over the tuck fumble in the Patriots first ill gotten AFC championship. They sure know how to connive.

 

[Millhouse]

That was a smart play. I'd guess McDaniel said we're running outside, hold as much as you can, and Belichick agreed. Odds are they won't call it at this point in the game if it's not a takedown and odds are that we'll still win even if they do call it. (Jags still having to get a TD down the length of the field with about 1:40 and no timeouts).

Always play the odds.

there are so many situations where teams should commit penalties. i just read an article where a lot of their analytics are focused on referee tendencies. they don't think it's cheating if they don't call it

it kills me that refs aren't smart enough to see what the incentives are. they don't care about 5 yards there.

buddy ryan polish defense is always funny to think about. (if it's 1st down at the 1 and there's not much time left, just put 14 guys out there and tackle everyone, who cares, just waste enough time to only give them one play)

 

[Alsacs]

Marrone validated himself yesterday.
He prepared his team well enough to win.
Their QB was good the first 3 quarters but didn’t execute in the 4th.

Play calling wasn’t the problem in the 4th the QB missed a TD to Fournette and just lost it.

Their D is really good and will be better. They could use more WRs and I would replace Bortles with Cousins. The game is different if it’s in Jacksonville. Thus while Bortles was good yesterday for them to get HFA they need more consistency at QB.

 

[orangenirvana]

Marrone validated himself yesterday.
He prepared his team well enough to win.
Their QB was good the first 3 quarters but didn’t execute in the 4th.

Play calling wasn’t the problem in the 4th the QB missed a TD to Fournette and just lost it.

Their D is really good and will be better. They could use more WRs and I would replace Bortles with Cousins. The game is different if it’s in Jacksonville. Thus while Bortles was good yesterday for them to get HFA they need more consistency at QB.

Sad read for the Marrone fans...


The Jaguars were up 20-10 in the 4th quarter. I'm going to showcase every single snap they took when the clock was moving, highlighting time left on play clock + play call itself. This will seem like Groundhog Day, but that's not until Feb 2nd.

[following a 1&10 run for 3 yds]
13:04 - 2&7 - <snapped w 13 seconds on play clock> - pass lands incomplete at NE 45 (20 yds downfield)

[following a 1&10 run for 1 yd]
7:59 - 2&9 - <snapped w 8 seconds on play clock> - pass complete for 20 yds

[following a 1st down w a moving clock]
7:18 - 1&10 - <snapped w 9 seconds on play clock> - 1 yd run

[following a 1&10 run for 1 yd]
6:41 - 2&9 - <snapped w 9 seconds on play clock> - pass lands incomplete at NE 27 (35 yds downfield)

[following a 1&10 run for -1 yd]
5:20 - 2&11 - <snapped w 13 seconds on play clock> - pass tipped at JAX 26 (17 yds downfield)

Every. Single. First. Down. Was. A. Run. From. Shotgun. You think the Patriots didn't figure that out? Look at the totals on those four 1st & 10 runs as the quarter progressed:
2 yds
1 yd
1 yd
-1 yd

Every. Single. Second. Down. Was. A. Long. Pass. Downfield. These are all 2nd and long situations with a 4Q lead. Goals are either: bleed clock or set up 3rd and manageable. Instead, look at the distance of these passes:
20 yds
20 yds
35 yds
17 yds

So now on 3rd and long, with a stopped clock, what do the Jaguars do? 100% pass, only 1 was complete. The punt following that pass was snapped w 6 seconds on play clock. The others were punted w stopped clock. No passes resulted in 1st down. *3 punts in 4Q with a lead*

The Jaguars had 6 snaps in the 4th quarter, with a moving clock & a lead (if you include the 1 punt). They NEVER ran the play clock to even 5 seconds, let alone inside 5 seconds. 4 of the 6 snaps were with 9-13 seconds on the play clock.

We've got it all here. Poor situational awareness (clock management). Highly predictable play calling. Inferior play calling. The Jags can say they were "playing to win" with the 2nd down deep shots on 100% of 2nd downs, but that is not how you "really" win in this situation.

Each summer I write a Football Preview book. Spend 5+ months on it, uncovering every angle/element I can. Last year's is here: https://www.amazon.com/Warren-Sharps-2017-Football-Preview/dp/1547048905 …
If you bought the book last summer, flip to the final page in the Jaguars chapter.

In that final page, I predicted (using analytics at Sharp Football Stats) that the Jaguars defense would face the 3rd easiest schedule of offenses. As it turned out, they actually did face the 3rd easiest schedule, via 2017 Strength of Schedule (DEF) …

I forecast that the Jags defense should give the team the chance to win a lot of games. But I highlighted one thing in particular. "2nd half play calling when leading" and concerns I had about what I saw from Nathaniel Hackett in 2016.

I'm attaching that last page of the Jaguars chapter. Literally the last 4 paragraphs in this chapter are dedicated to the play calling issues. Start here: "The play calling was beyond bad in terms of predictability and likely cost the Jaguars several wins"

In the end, the issues with predictable 2nd half play calling when leading bit the Jaguars. The play calling in this final game to GET the lead was outstanding. Aggressive & creative. The play calling in the 4Q to HOLD the lead was the exact opposite.

The Jaguars were a better team in 2017 than I anticipated before the year. Blake Bortles played better than expected. The team WELL exceeded expectations. They held a 20-10 fourth quarter lead, on the road, with the ball against THE DYNASTY w/ a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.

Last July, after the 2017 Football Preview was released, I wrote the following article: "Predictable Offense & Prevent Defense: No Team Blows Second Half Leads Like the Jaguars"

That article showcased not just the offensive issues when playing with a second half lead, but the defensive issues as well. See the below graphic as an example of their 2016 problems.

I concluded that article with the attached quote, citing "predictable formations and play calls offensively, and utterly painful prevent pass defense" in the second half, when leading, could prevent the Jags from winning a Div Champ (wrong) Conf Champ & Lombardi.

The other element to this was the BIG story before the game. The one I wrote this entire (attached) article about. Trailing the entire 2nd half + NO GRONK, the Patriots had to use 11 personnel to come back, which is THE massive strength of the Jags DEF.

Warren Sharp on Twitter

The Patriots had to play the game the way the Jaguars wanted them to play it: with 3 wides. And yet Jacksonville's defense still couldn't get it done and the Jaguars offensive play calling/game management fell apart.

All in all, a GREAT season for the Jaguars. I'm sure I'll have plenty more advice for the team in the 2018 Football Preview book, due out this summer. Hopefully they address the issues. But to come so close this season and to fall just short, I'm sure, is utterly heartbreaking.

Additionally, I read a quote after the game that said "a lot of Jags defenders" were upset that the team moved away from man-to-man and played more zone coverage in the 2nd half. This is EXACTLY what I was getting at in 2016 with the "prevent defense" article/graphics.

While I take an analytical, measured approach...to repeat the same tactical coaching mistakes from 2016 is MIND NUMBING. It's AGGRAVATING as a neutral analyst. These should have been brought to their attention (I tried) & fixed. I would be MAD as hell if I were a fan. No excuses.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Sad read for the Marrone fans...


The Jaguars were up 20-10 in the 4th quarter. I'm going to showcase every single snap they took when the clock was moving, highlighting time left on play clock + play call itself. This will seem like Groundhog Day, but that's not until Feb 2nd.

[following a 1&10 run for 3 yds]
13:04 - 2&7 - <snapped w 13 seconds on play clock> - pass lands incomplete at NE 45 (20 yds downfield)

[following a 1&10 run for 1 yd]
7:59 - 2&9 - <snapped w 8 seconds on play clock> - pass complete for 20 yds

[following a 1st down w a moving clock]
7:18 - 1&10 - <snapped w 9 seconds on play clock> - 1 yd run

[following a 1&10 run for 1 yd]
6:41 - 2&9 - <snapped w 9 seconds on play clock> - pass lands incomplete at NE 27 (35 yds downfield)

[following a 1&10 run for -1 yd]
5:20 - 2&11 - <snapped w 13 seconds on play clock> - pass tipped at JAX 26 (17 yds downfield)

Every. Single. First. Down. Was. A. Run. From. Shotgun. You think the Patriots didn't figure that out? Look at the totals on those four 1st & 10 runs as the quarter progressed:
2 yds
1 yd
1 yd
-1 yd

Every. Single. Second. Down. Was. A. Long. Pass. Downfield. These are all 2nd and long situations with a 4Q lead. Goals are either: bleed clock or set up 3rd and manageable. Instead, look at the distance of these passes:
20 yds
20 yds
35 yds
17 yds

So now on 3rd and long, with a stopped clock, what do the Jaguars do? 100% pass, only 1 was complete. The punt following that pass was snapped w 6 seconds on play clock. The others were punted w stopped clock. No passes resulted in 1st down. *3 punts in 4Q with a lead*

The Jaguars had 6 snaps in the 4th quarter, with a moving clock & a lead (if you include the 1 punt). They NEVER ran the play clock to even 5 seconds, let alone inside 5 seconds. 4 of the 6 snaps were with 9-13 seconds on the play clock.

We've got it all here. Poor situational awareness (clock management). Highly predictable play calling. Inferior play calling. The Jags can say they were "playing to win" with the 2nd down deep shots on 100% of 2nd downs, but that is not how you "really" win in this situation.

Each summer I write a Football Preview book. Spend 5+ months on it, uncovering every angle/element I can. Last year's is here: https://www.amazon.com/Warren-Sharps-2017-Football-Preview/dp/1547048905 …
If you bought the book last summer, flip to the final page in the Jaguars chapter.

In that final page, I predicted (using analytics at Sharp Football Stats) that the Jaguars defense would face the 3rd easiest schedule of offenses. As it turned out, they actually did face the 3rd easiest schedule, via 2017 Strength of Schedule (DEF) …
View attachment 120321

I forecast that the Jags defense should give the team the chance to win a lot of games. But I highlighted one thing in particular. "2nd half play calling when leading" and concerns I had about what I saw from Nathaniel Hackett in 2016.

I'm attaching that last page of the Jaguars chapter. Literally the last 4 paragraphs in this chapter are dedicated to the play calling issues. Start here: "The play calling was beyond bad in terms of predictability and likely cost the Jaguars several wins"
View attachment 120322

In the end, the issues with predictable 2nd half play calling when leading bit the Jaguars. The play calling in this final game to GET the lead was outstanding. Aggressive & creative. The play calling in the 4Q to HOLD the lead was the exact opposite.

The Jaguars were a better team in 2017 than I anticipated before the year. Blake Bortles played better than expected. The team WELL exceeded expectations. They held a 20-10 fourth quarter lead, on the road, with the ball against THE DYNASTY w/ a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.

Last July, after the 2017 Football Preview was released, I wrote the following article: "Predictable Offense & Prevent Defense: No Team Blows Second Half Leads Like the Jaguars"

That article showcased not just the offensive issues when playing with a second half lead, but the defensive issues as well. See the below graphic as an example of their 2016 problems.
View attachment 120323


I concluded that article with the attached quote, citing "predictable formations and play calls offensively, and utterly painful prevent pass defense" in the second half, when leading, could prevent the Jags from winning a Div Champ (wrong) Conf Champ & Lombardi.

View attachment 120324

The other element to this was the BIG story before the game. The one I wrote this entire (attached) article about. Trailing the entire 2nd half + NO GRONK, the Patriots had to use 11 personnel to come back, which is THE massive strength of the Jags DEF.

Warren Sharp on Twitter

The Patriots had to play the game the way the Jaguars wanted them to play it: with 3 wides. And yet Jacksonville's defense still couldn't get it done and the Jaguars offensive play calling/game management fell apart.

All in all, a GREAT season for the Jaguars. I'm sure I'll have plenty more advice for the team in the 2018 Football Preview book, due out this summer. Hopefully they address the issues. But to come so close this season and to fall just short, I'm sure, is utterly heartbreaking.

Additionally, I read a quote after the game that said "a lot of Jags defenders" were upset that the team moved away from man-to-man and played more zone coverage in the 2nd half. This is EXACTLY what I was getting at in 2016 with the "prevent defense" article/graphics.

While I take an analytical, measured approach...to repeat the same tactical coaching mistakes from 2016 is MIND NUMBING. It's AGGRAVATING as a neutral analyst. These should have been brought to their attention (I tried) & fixed. I would be MAD as hell if I were a fan. No excuses.

Yep. Marrone blew it. Like I said when he was HC here at SU, M- he is a GREAT HC. However gameday is a different story.

 

[Alsacs]

Yep. Marrone blew it. Like I said when he was HC here at SU, M- he is a GREAT HC. However gameday is a different story.

He made a mistake at the end of the first half.
He game planned well.
Bortles in the 4th and not stoping the 3rd and 18’are why they lost.

Marrone isn’t Coughlin but he proved yesterday he is good.
That roster is the fastest in the NFL.

 

[GoSU96]

Yep. Marrone blew it. Like I said when he was HC here at SU, M- he is a GREAT HC. However gameday is a different story.

They hadn't given up a double digit lead all year. They were playing to their formula. Not getting off the field on 3rd and 18 was much more important than 4th quarter play calling.

You don't take a team from 3-13 to 12-7 and suck on gameday.

 

[SkyTopBus44]

Never realized that Middle Tennessee's former Coach Boots Donnelly was Marrone's father in law. Shafer there now...what a small world

 

[xc84]

They hadn't given up a double digit lead all year. They were playing to their formula. Not getting off the field on 3rd and 18 was much more important than 4th quarter play calling.

You don't take a team from 3-13 to 12-7 and suck on gameday.

Exactly. It's easy to second guess now but it's true, that's how they go there to begin with. And they came within 4 points and a couple of minutes from the Super Bowl against a heavy favorite with the best QB in the league. By no measure did they suck yesterday.

 

[orangenirvana]

Exactly. It's easy to second guess now but it's true, that's how they go there to begin with. And they came within 4 points and a couple of minutes from the Super Bowl against a heavy favorite with the best QB in the league. By no measure did they suck yesterday.

The players certainly did not suck. They deserved to win.

 

[xc84]

The players certainly did not suck. They deserved to win.

While I wish they won...they were outperformed in the 4th.

 

[Pyle]

Sad read for the Marrone fans...


The Jaguars were up 20-10 in the 4th quarter. I'm going to showcase every single snap they took when the clock was moving, highlighting time left on play clock + play call itself. This will seem like Groundhog Day, but that's not until Feb 2nd.

[following a 1&10 run for 3 yds]
13:04 - 2&7 - <snapped w 13 seconds on play clock> - pass lands incomplete at NE 45 (20 yds downfield)

[following a 1&10 run for 1 yd]
7:59 - 2&9 - <snapped w 8 seconds on play clock> - pass complete for 20 yds

[following a 1st down w a moving clock]
7:18 - 1&10 - <snapped w 9 seconds on play clock> - 1 yd run

[following a 1&10 run for 1 yd]
6:41 - 2&9 - <snapped w 9 seconds on play clock> - pass lands incomplete at NE 27 (35 yds downfield)

[following a 1&10 run for -1 yd]
5:20 - 2&11 - <snapped w 13 seconds on play clock> - pass tipped at JAX 26 (17 yds downfield)

Every. Single. First. Down. Was. A. Run. From. Shotgun. You think the Patriots didn't figure that out? Look at the totals on those four 1st & 10 runs as the quarter progressed:
2 yds
1 yd
1 yd
-1 yd

Every. Single. Second. Down. Was. A. Long. Pass. Downfield. These are all 2nd and long situations with a 4Q lead. Goals are either: bleed clock or set up 3rd and manageable. Instead, look at the distance of these passes:
20 yds
20 yds
35 yds
17 yds

So now on 3rd and long, with a stopped clock, what do the Jaguars do? 100% pass, only 1 was complete. The punt following that pass was snapped w 6 seconds on play clock. The others were punted w stopped clock. No passes resulted in 1st down. *3 punts in 4Q with a lead*

The Jaguars had 6 snaps in the 4th quarter, with a moving clock & a lead (if you include the 1 punt). They NEVER ran the play clock to even 5 seconds, let alone inside 5 seconds. 4 of the 6 snaps were with 9-13 seconds on the play clock.

We've got it all here. Poor situational awareness (clock management). Highly predictable play calling. Inferior play calling. The Jags can say they were "playing to win" with the 2nd down deep shots on 100% of 2nd downs, but that is not how you "really" win in this situation.

Each summer I write a Football Preview book. Spend 5+ months on it, uncovering every angle/element I can. Last year's is here: https://www.amazon.com/Warren-Sharps-2017-Football-Preview/dp/1547048905 …
If you bought the book last summer, flip to the final page in the Jaguars chapter.

In that final page, I predicted (using analytics at Sharp Football Stats) that the Jaguars defense would face the 3rd easiest schedule of offenses. As it turned out, they actually did face the 3rd easiest schedule, via 2017 Strength of Schedule (DEF) …
View attachment 120321

I forecast that the Jags defense should give the team the chance to win a lot of games. But I highlighted one thing in particular. "2nd half play calling when leading" and concerns I had about what I saw from Nathaniel Hackett in 2016.

I'm attaching that last page of the Jaguars chapter. Literally the last 4 paragraphs in this chapter are dedicated to the play calling issues. Start here: "The play calling was beyond bad in terms of predictability and likely cost the Jaguars several wins"
View attachment 120322

In the end, the issues with predictable 2nd half play calling when leading bit the Jaguars. The play calling in this final game to GET the lead was outstanding. Aggressive & creative. The play calling in the 4Q to HOLD the lead was the exact opposite.

The Jaguars were a better team in 2017 than I anticipated before the year. Blake Bortles played better than expected. The team WELL exceeded expectations. They held a 20-10 fourth quarter lead, on the road, with the ball against THE DYNASTY w/ a trip to the Super Bowl at stake.

Last July, after the 2017 Football Preview was released, I wrote the following article: "Predictable Offense & Prevent Defense: No Team Blows Second Half Leads Like the Jaguars"

That article showcased not just the offensive issues when playing with a second half lead, but the defensive issues as well. See the below graphic as an example of their 2016 problems.
View attachment 120323


I concluded that article with the attached quote, citing "predictable formations and play calls offensively, and utterly painful prevent pass defense" in the second half, when leading, could prevent the Jags from winning a Div Champ (wrong) Conf Champ & Lombardi.

View attachment 120324

The other element to this was the BIG story before the game. The one I wrote this entire (attached) article about. Trailing the entire 2nd half + NO GRONK, the Patriots had to use 11 personnel to come back, which is THE massive strength of the Jags DEF.

Warren Sharp on Twitter

The Patriots had to play the game the way the Jaguars wanted them to play it: with 3 wides. And yet Jacksonville's defense still couldn't get it done and the Jaguars offensive play calling/game management fell apart.

All in all, a GREAT season for the Jaguars. I'm sure I'll have plenty more advice for the team in the 2018 Football Preview book, due out this summer. Hopefully they address the issues. But to come so close this season and to fall just short, I'm sure, is utterly heartbreaking.

Additionally, I read a quote after the game that said "a lot of Jags defenders" were upset that the team moved away from man-to-man and played more zone coverage in the 2nd half. This is EXACTLY what I was getting at in 2016 with the "prevent defense" article/graphics.

While I take an analytical, measured approach...to repeat the same tactical coaching mistakes from 2016 is MIND NUMBING. It's AGGRAVATING as a neutral analyst. These should have been brought to their attention (I tried) & fixed. I would be MAD as hell if I were a fan. No excuses.

While this is a very interesting diatribe, it fails to also include the systematic ability of Tom Brady and the Patriots to seemingly come from behind to win the big game against anybody. This article makes it sound like it's all Jax/Marrone's fault. Their is magic in that Brady helmet. At the end of the game, when they were talking about how they did it again, they weren't referring to the Jags choking, they were referring to Bradichick pulling out another one.

 

[orangenirvana]

While this is a very interesting diatribe, it fails to also include the systematic ability of Tom Brady and the Patriots to seemingly come from behind to win the big game against anybody. This article makes it sound like it's all Jax/Marrone's fault. Their is magic in that Brady helmet. At the end of the game, when they were talking about how they did it again, they weren't referring to the Jags choking, they were referring to Bradichick pulling out another one.

You're making excuses. The win was there for the taking and Marrone choked.

 

[xc84]

You're making excuses. The win was there for the taking and Marrone choked.

Who was on the field when the Patriots took the lead?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

You're making excuses. The win was there for the taking and Marrone choked.

I wouldn't call it choking. The article shows that they became predictable, the Pats saw through it, and the Jags didn't have enough of a lead for the amount of time remaining on the clock to hold it off.

Jags may have had a different result had they simply run the play clock down between snaps, and/or stopping the clock with an incomplete pass only on first downs.

 

[bnoro]

The Pats won that game, the Jaguars didn't lose it. No one is better in the NFL at making adjustments than Bill and his staff.

 

[Scooch]

The Pats won that game, the Jaguars didn't lose it. No one is better in the NFL at making adjustments than Bill and his staff.

Dude, the Cheatriots won because they paid off the refs. Everyone knows this, stop playing coy.

 

[Millhouse]

While this is a very interesting diatribe, it fails to also include the systematic ability of Tom Brady and the Patriots to seemingly come from behind to win the big game against anybody. This article makes it sound like it's all Jax/Marrone's fault. Their is magic in that Brady helmet. At the end of the game, when they were talking about how they did it again, they weren't referring to the Jags choking, they were referring to Bradichick pulling out another one.

I'm not a big fan of warren sharp but everyone but the jags coaches knew they needed to score more.

they split the baby too much. punt too fast to get the ball back then kneel on it (the debacle earlier this year hurt them twice). sit on the lead but snap the ball too quickly

 

[kirbivore]

Loved the Jags offensive game plan in the 1st half but they went predictable in the second half. Dougie should have never taken his foot off the gas. Everyone knew NE was going to win once the Jags went conservative.

Enough of the Bortles isn't serviceable crap. He played well enough to win the game.

Dougie coached scared

 

[orangenirvana]

I wouldn't call it choking. The article shows that they became predictable, the Pats saw through it, and the Jags didn't have enough of a lead for the amount of time remaining on the clock to hold it off.

Jags may have had a different result had they simply run the play clock down between snaps, and/or stopping the clock with an incomplete pass only on first downs.

Marrone coached scared and made multiple game management mistakes. I consider that choking but it could just be Marrone being Marrone.

From taking a knee with two timeouts and a minute left in the 2nd quarter, to castrating Hackett and his working game plan at halftime, to becoming criminally predictable on offense in the 4th quarter, to neutering the most talented defense in the NFL by forcing them to play a soft prevent/zone D, to not letting the clock wind down to the 2-minute warning - handing Brady an extra timeout. It was really, really bad.

People like to throw their hands up and say "Well, what can ya do? It's Brady and Belichick!" Marrone had a talent-laden roster at his disposal more than capable of beating Brady. You don't beat Bradichick by playing the ole Play Not To Lose game.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I consider that choking but it could just be Marrone being Marrone.

Bingo.

 

[CousCuse]

Trolls are gonna troll.

 

[xc84]

Marrone coached scared and made multiple game management mistakes. I consider that choking but it could just be Marrone being Marrone.

From taking a knee with two timeouts and a minute left in the 2nd quarter, to castrating Hackett and his working game plan at halftime, to becoming criminally predictable on offense in the 4th quarter, to neutering the most talented defense in the NFL by forcing them to play a soft prevent/zone D, to not letting the clock wind down to the 2-minute warning - handing Brady an extra timeout. It was really, really bad.

People like to throw their hands up and say "Well, what can ya do? It's Brady and Belichick!" Marrone had a talent-laden roster at his disposal more than capable of beating Brady. You don't beat Bradichick by playing the ole Play Not To Lose game.

You cant just pretend that Brady, Belichick and the rest of the Patriots and the Jags defense don't matter.

When the Jags win you say Marrone had nothing to do with it. When they lose you say it's all his fault.

 

[orangenirvana]

You cant just pretend that Brady, Belichick and the rest of the Patriots and the Jags defense don't matter.

When the Jags win you say Marrone had nothing to do with it. When they lose you say it's all his fault.

And you can't pretend that game management gaffes don't matter when up by 10 points with 13 minutes to go and the ball.

I never say Marrone has "nothing to do with it". He's the head coach, he does good things. He's just not the saint that he and his followers portray him to be.

 

[Cusefan0307]

He coached meathead football in the fourth quarter.