Scouting Wisconsin - A couple of scary stats

[SmilinBob]

All this paralysis by analysis still gets trumped by one thing: Wisconsin doesn't play zone.

Far and away SU's worst performances all year came against zones. Our team is far too talented to be contained M2M.

Hopefully you're right. Ryans a good coach and if his team falls behind it's possible they might zone SU, he has almost a week to see if it works because they have to practice the zone to simulate how to attack it.

 

[CorduroyG]

Hopefully you're right. Ryans a good coach and if his team falls behind it's possible they might zone SU, he has almost a week to see if it works because they have to practice the zone to simulate how to attack it.

pretty sure a wisconsin fan here yesterday said wisconsin has never played zone under bo ryan, i seriously doubt he'll whip it out in a sweet 16 game.

 

[Orangezoo]

I have watched about 9 wisconsin games this year and noticed a couple of things from a matchup perspective that I believe we are built to exploit.

The first is that they do not have a true bread and butter low post threat. They have some guys who can make a move but not really seal their man and back a guy down to then allow for an easy kickout. The movement of the zone will make any baskets around the rim very difficult and will eliminate the need to suck in the zone at all.

The second thing I noticed is that they really rely on ball movement off screens to get their shooters in the flow of the game. The only guy who creates his own shot well is Taylor. And as good as he is he can get overzealous and throw up a lot of poor shots. Against the zone he will not have a lot of opportunities to use the dribble to get himself a shot. The flip side is if he can penetrate the zone.. that will cause some trouble. We will have to expect he will get himself into the lane or try to often. This is where the turnover statistics become important. If Evans does not hurt us from the FT line.. wisconsin will be forced to use Taylor to penetrate. Otherwise they will throw up 50 contested 3's all game. If Taylor penetrates, scoop/dion will have more opportunities to strip the ball than wisconsin is used to giving up since they play on the perimeter so much.

The third thing is watch how they get back on d. Off of misses they collapse their d into the paint. On misses our guys leak out to the wings. If wisconsin does not crash the offensive boards, the outlet pass will be their for scoop/dion. Attack from the wings will give our guys a better angle to the basket while trying to push the tempo. It will also force wisky to react quickly to shooters as our break spaces the floor.


The final thing I noticed in games this year and especially against Vandy.. is they do at times struggle to react quickly to the PNR. They do a great job getting to shooters but are vulnerable on the pick n roll. The lack of footspeed along with our guys athleticism may give us an opportunity to run a decent halfcourt set with Rak/CJ/James off the PNR. Now I noticed this more in their losses than in their wins so its not consistant. They gave UNC some trouble.. but UNC's athleticism did bother the badgers and I hope we can do the same.

I think these 4 items will even up some of the percentages and help reduce the effect of the charges that wisky takes. I am by no means saying this wins us the game.. just saying while its a tough matchup against a big physical well coached squad, I think we will be problematic for them just as much. The most important part of this game is the first five minutes. If we make a quick run.. they are in for a long night.. if they go up early getting hot from 28 ft.. visa versa.

With the game in Boston, our advantage in depth/athleticism and with the zone, I think we win a tight game with a couple of key runs when the badgers hit a dry spell. Either way it will be a war.. and possibly even more so than the next game if we make it there.

 

[Marsh01]

I have watched about 9 wisconsin games this year and noticed a couple of things from a matchup perspective that I believe we are built to exploit.

The first is that they do not have a true bread and butter low post threat. They have some guys who can make a move but not really seal their man and back a guy down to then allow for an easy kickout. The movement of the zone will make any baskets around the rim very difficult and will eliminate the need to suck in the zone at all.

The second thing I noticed is that they really rely on ball movement off screens to get their shooters in the flow of the game. The only guy who creates his own shot well is Taylor. And as good as he is he can get overzealous and throw up a lot of poor shots. Against the zone he will not have a lot of opportunities to use the dribble to get himself a shot. The flip side is if he can penetrate the zone.. that will cause some trouble. We will have to expect he will get himself into the lane or try to often. This is where the turnover statistics become important. If Evans does not hurt us from the FT line.. wisconsin will be forced to use Taylor to penetrate. Otherwise they will throw up 50 contested 3's all game. If Taylor penetrates, scoop/dion will have more opportunities to strip the ball than wisconsin is used to giving up since they play on the perimeter so much.

The third thing is watch how they get back on d. Off of misses they collapse their d into the paint. On misses our guys leak out to the wings. If wisconsin does not crash the offensive boards, the outlet pass will be their for scoop/dion. Attack from the wings will give our guys a better angle to the basket while trying to push the tempo. It will also force wisky to react quickly to shooters as our break spaces the floor.


The final thing I noticed in games this year and especially against Vandy.. is they do at times struggle to react quickly to the PNR. They do a great job getting to shooters but are vulnerable on the pick n roll. The lack of footspeed along with our guys athleticism may give us an opportunity to run a decent halfcourt set with Rak/CJ/James off the PNR. Now I noticed this more in their losses than in their wins so its not consistant. They gave UNC some trouble.. but UNC's athleticism did bother the badgers and I hope we can do the same.

I think these 4 items will even up some of the percentages and help reduce the effect of the charges that wisky takes. I am by no means saying this wins us the game.. just saying while its a tough matchup against a big physical well coached squad, I think we will be problematic for them just as much. The most important part of this game is the first five minutes. If we make a quick run.. they are in for a long night.. if they go up early getting hot from 28 ft.. visa versa.

With the game in Boston, our advantage in depth/athleticism and with the zone, I think we win a tight game with a couple of key runs when the badgers hit a dry spell. Either way it will be a war.. and possibly even more so than the next game if we make it there.

Great take.

 

[FornerlyBIS]

This is a pretty good discussion (I'm a badger fan and a devotee of shetownbucky's pre-game analyses that this was taken from). Another regular poster on the badger sites (named "turomon") invented a stat called the "opportunity index". The OI is simply offensive rebounding margin + turnover margin. The idea is that if you get more offensive rebounds, that's like having extra possessions, and fewer turnovers is like saving your possessions. So, if you have 2 more offensive rebounds and 3 fewer turnovers than your opponent, you were +5 for OI, meaning 5 more opportunities to score than your opponent.

So, the posters here are rightly hypothesizing that if they can't force turnovers, they could make up for that with better defensive rebounding.

Different teams use different tactics to succeed in OI -- Syr focuses on causing more turnovers. Wisconsin focuses both on not turning it over and defensive rebounding. MSU focuses on offensive rebounding.

 

[SmilinBob]

pretty sure a wisconsin fan here yesterday said wisconsin has never played zone under bo ryan, i seriously doubt he'll whip it out in a sweet 16 game.

You're probably right but they will be practicing it during practice so you never know. Hey, if I am getting my butt kicked you have to try something new to try to change things especially if you think it has a chance to work. He's an old dog like Boeheim and it is hard to teach those guys new tricks and here's hoping we are scoring and far enough ahead that Bo tries it!

 

[SmilinBob]

Holy cow, all the different scenarios that could happen in this game makes it one hell of a fight coming up on us. What is going to work, what adjustments will be made and how will the players react to the other team...who can do their strengths and who could show up and have the game of their lives. One thing to think about, if Wisconsin has faced all man it's possible they have a heck of a shooter they haven't used that much off due to his lack of foot speed, sometimes against our zone that guy stands out.

 

[AlaskaSU]

We absolutely have to taken press Wisconsin. The goal wouldn't be to turn them over, but rather speed them up. They'll be very systematic in their halfcourt and if we can take off 5 seconds or so of that while pressing them it's worth it.

If you think about it, trading rebounding for transition points might not be awful for us. Wiscy getting 20 ORebs could lead to 20 extra shots for them, hardly doubt we'd get anywhere close to 20 shots in transition all year in a single game. If them going one and done most possessions equals us not running all game, might not be a terrible trade.

the 35 sec clock does not start until they cross half court, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[FornerlyBIS]

You're probably right but they will be practicing it during practice so you never know. Hey, if I am getting my butt kicked you have to try something new to try to change things especially if you think it has a chance to work. He's an old dog like Boeheim and it is hard to teach those guys new tricks and here's hoping we are scoring and far enough ahead that Bo tries it!

Bo's been at Wisconsin for over a decade now and they haven't played one second of zone. There is a lot of switching and help defense within Bo's system, but NEVER a zone.

 

[jncuse]

the 35 sec clock does not start until they cross half court, if I'm not mistaken.

You are mistaken.

 

[FornerlyBIS]

Holy cow, all the different scenarios that could happen in this game makes it one hell of a fight coming up on us. What is going to work, what adjustments will be made and how will the players react to the other team...who can do their strengths and who could show up and have the game of their lives. One thing to think about, if Wisconsin has faced all man it's possible they have a heck of a shooter they haven't used that much off due to his lack of foot speed, sometimes against our zone that guy stands out.

This describes Ben Brust -- he plays quite a bit, so he's not a secret, but he's our bomber that needs some room to get his shot off -- he will shoot from very deep. He's streaky -- many, many games he's been invisible, but he also had 7 3's against UNLV earlier in the year. He was pretty good in ABQ.

 

[SmilinBob]

Bo's been at Wisconsin for over a decade now and they haven't played one second of zone. There is a lot of switching and help defense within Bo's system, but NEVER a zone.

I know that you know better since you've watched them but it could be a pseudo match up man. Again, I'm just thinking outside the box here and I'm sure Wisconsin will stick with their man d they always use. I'm just hoping that we're far enough ahead that Ryan will get desperate enough to try!

 

[Knicks411]

This doesn't really fit here, but here a theory I was thinking about recently on ways to milk the clock even more. (I don't like it, but there are some coaches who do).

Anyway, when the other team makes a basket and the clock continues to run (so anytime other than the last minute or two of the second half), take your time getting to the ball to inbound it, and then take 4 of the seconds you have to inbound the ball. You can basically turn the 35 second clock to a 40 second clock, if you really wanted to limit possessions.

 

[Van111]

Warning: For those posters who only like reading bubble gum and cotton candy posts--with never a hint of the remote possibility that Syracuse could lose a game--please stop reading and move on...

I stole the following from the Wiscy forum...



I noticed in the Vanderbilt game that they simply do not allow transition points. And those stats above are quite impressive. Very disciplined team. The bright side to that is, they sacrifice offensive rebounding in order to stop transition.

Which means if Syracuse wants to score in transition, they'll have to turn the Badgers over. Except...



Ugh.

So scoring will likely be an issue unless SU is able to be productive in the halfcourt. That means SU will have to limit turnovers and hit the very few open shot opportunities they'll have. This will also be a great time to have Fair get out of his slump, as we need that extra penetrator and scorer. I think Fair is one of the better matchups SU will have when they have the ball. The Badgers' power forward (Bruesewicz) is only 6-6 and not overly athletic. If Fair can hit the mid-range jumper, that should allow him the ability to beat him off the dribble, which should in turn free up some guys.

Wisconsin's man D is suffocating. I'm not sure how well Scoop matches up with Taylor's strength and athleticism. Gasser will likely frustrate Triche and Waiters. I think the key to scoring will be how Joseph does against Evans, and how well Fair / Dirty do against Bruesewicz.

I don't know how well Wisconsin does against the full-court press. Might be a good idea to find out. They aren't an extremely deep team, maybe we can wear them down.

It's going to be a low-scoring game, no question about it. The good news is - we seem to thrive on that and have grinded out wins all season. But have we played a team this season as good as Wisconsin?

Wisconsin lives and dies with the three pointer. They hit 10 3 pointers in the last game, thats the good news, but they shot 33. That won't do it aginst SU. On the other hand, SU has to be more consistent. They can't get into these long dry spells without hitting baskets because being 10 down to Wisconsin is like being down 15 or more against another opponent. They also are going to have to keep Trish, Waiters and Scoop from running out otherwise long rebounds will go all too often to Wisconsin.

Key to Syracuse win is outside shooting early, which will open holes on the inside, and go for transition if you have Wisconsin down by 10 or more, as their gurads will cheat up looking for secind chance opportunities, then you can run on them. Wisconsin went 3-7 against ranked apponents this year. You have to be patient against them, as they will not run away with it, they average 59.3 points a game against ranked opponents. I like SU's chances in a low scorer.

 

[armory]

the 35 sec clock does not start until they cross half court, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[FornerlyBIS]

Wisconsin went 3-7 against ranked apponents this year.

5 of those 7 losses were to MSU, OSU, and UNC -- was there anyone of this level on the Syracuse schedule?

 

[djcon57]

5 of those 7 losses were to MSU, OSU, and UNC -- was there anyone of this level on the Syracuse schedule?

Nope.

But didn't lose to anyone the level of Iowa twice either...kinda evens out.

 

[Orangezoo]

patience is key. if we try to get it all in one posession like we did against butler we are in trouble. we cannot dig ourselves into an early hole. when we have kept from getting into an early hole we have not faired well against disciplined teams.

 

[SWC75]

Extend the zone to guard the three point shooters.

Send the guard to the boards rather than having them "leak out".

Pass the ball back and forth to get the defense moving before driving to the basket.

 

[SmilinBob]

The Big 10 had a heck of a year and is still having one.

Nope.

But didn't lose to anyone the level of Iowa twice either...kinda evens out.

Or Marquette.

 

[MCuse44]

The key is scoring. I think Wisconsin was something like 5-8 when their opponent scores more then 59 points.

What makes me nervous. Our last game we shot lights out. 50% from field, 67% from 3 and 80% from FT. How often does that happen.

 

[Van111]

The key is scoring. I think Wisconsin was something like 5-8 when their opponent scores more then 59 points.

What makes me nervous. Our last game we shot lights out. 50% from field, 67% from 3 and 80% from FT. How often does that happen.

We have really good shooters on this team that quite frankly have been in prolonged funks. Scoop is well...Scoop. Times you want to kill him for his poor play and then he has a game like the last. But Fair is a good shooter in a funk, Trish as well. KJ really hasn't been the step up guy we were hoping for. Christmas only does high percentage shots, namely dunks and garbage time, and Waiters is another good shooter. If Trish and Fair get their shooting back, and with Sutherland coming off the bench, KJ starts playing like we all know he can, this team can easily beat any team out there.

 

[TinyManInside]

My key for this game is jump on Wisconsin early. Bury them right out the gate so that they don't have the opportunity to drag that game out into a painful possession game/rock fight.

Another key going forward is for KJ to start hitting some threes. We don't need him to go crazy, but a couple of game at a reasonable percentage will open things up for the offense.

 

[djcon57]

My key for this game is jump on Wisconsin early. Bury them right out the gate so that they don't have the opportunity to drag that game out into a painful possession game/rock fight.

Another key going forward is for KJ to start hitting some threes. We don't need him to go crazy, but a couple of game at a reasonable percentage will open things up for the offense.

Yep, one thing I really noticed in both game wasn't just that KJ was missing 3s. He was missing WIDE OPEN 3s.

 

[Van111]

Yep, one thing I really noticed in both game wasn't just that KJ was missing 3s. He was missing WIDE OPEN 3s.

you start by hitting some 2's and getting your confidence back.