Syracuse's gaudy transistion offense numbers were built up against a bunch of teams that were loose with the ball. 31 of our 35 opponents rank 70th or lower in offensive turnover percentage. The ones who valued the ball were Florida, ranked 16th in TO%, who played us within 4 point on our home floor; 11th ranked Cincy who played us twice and beat us once; and #9 Notre Dame. SU's only two losses came vs. teams highly ranked at valuing the ball.
Wisconsin is ranked #2.
Upon further review . . .
Florida is a very interesting case. The Gators are ranked #3 nationally in offensive efficiency this year with an OE of 121.3. As noted about, they are 16th in turnover percentage and handed the ball over just 10.7 times per game, when you leave the SU game out of the equation.
Against the Syracuse defense, however, they turned the ball over 20 times - twice their season average. They hit their threes - 9 for 26 for a reasonable 35% (on the season they averaged about 25 threes per game and hit them for 38%) and they also shot a sizzling 17/31 on their two pointers. But despite all that, their OE for the game was just 104.4, well off their season average, and they lost the game. So what happened? Several things that bode well for the Orange vs. Wisconsin:
First, the turnovers. Despite usually being very good with the ball, they turned it over at nearly twice their season rate to the Orange. The SU perimeter defenders collectively had 9 steals (and Fab had one more in the middle), which is almost as many turnovers alone as Florida averaged. As has been noted by many a coach, Syracuse is an easy team to prepare for because you know what is coming, but a difficult team to play because you cannot duplicate their length and quickness. Bo Ryan, good as he is, does not have the familiarity that Mike Brey and Mick Cronin have with Syracuse and his charges have never seen anything like what SU can do when it bears down defensively.
Second, they did not work the offensive glass. They got 10 offensive boards vs. SU's 23 defensive boards. Wisconsin often concedes rebounds to the defense in order to get back and defend against the break. That could be a big mistake. If SU turns them over - and it doesn't have to be 20 times to make a difference in a low scoring game - then they will need those elongated possessions.
Finally, Florida got killed at the free throw line. They couldn't draw fouls passing around the SU zone and only went to the line 11 times,making 7. Syracuse meanwhile was 17/21 from the stripe. Triche nearly outscored them all by himself, using his big frame to go inside vs. the smaller Florida guards and get layups and draw fouls. He went 9/9 from the free throw line in his only 20 pt. game of the season. Wisconsin's guards are bigger than Florida's, but not as big as SU's, and I think the Orange will try to keep pressure on them by taking them side over and over again. Either make them work so hard on defense that their offense suffers, or hang fouls on them, or both. The Badgers typically don't give a lot of fouls - they are ranked 40th in the nation in free throw attempts given per field goal attempt . . . but Florida is even better, ranked 39th, and the Orange still made a living at the line.
