some advanced stats through 19 games

[Knicks411]

The bigger issue is what happened to our other 1.7 wins? Can Buss, BJ and the walkons really be responsible for 1.7 wins?

I don't know if the basketball win shares works like baseball; in baseball Bill James has it set up so the number of win shares equals the number of wins divided by 3. I don't know if you have exactly as many win shares as wins in hoops.

 

[jordoo]

I don't know if the basketball win shares works like baseball; in baseball Bill James has it set up so the number of win shares equals the number of wins divided by 3. I don't know if you have exactly as many win shares as wins in hoops.

I was just being silly

 

[Knicks411]

Theoretically though; it should add up to your # of wins

 

[OttoinGrotto]

If rak is able to give us a modicum of value in the post offensively -- a couple buckets a game, then I'd agree. But baye is by far the more consistent on the other end and bailed us out defensively many times this year. I'm really pleased with rak's improvement but I would say he has no more than a slight edge on baye so far this season. I'm just not sure there is a metric for intangibles, high are a HUGE part of basketball, IMO

So... I love Baye, but I disagree with this. Rak's a much better player. I don't even think it's close. People always talk about Baye providing this intangible benefit to the team, and that's cool, I don't doubt he contributes that way I just think he's a fairly unproductive player. Aside from blocks and the occasional offensive board, his other stats more or less occur on accident. Rak on the other hand actually does things that show up on the stat sheet. Baye has a glow on him thanks in large part to our tourney run last season.

Now, all that said, I believe that JB trusts Keita more in a lot of cases, and I also believe that Keita never developed quite the way he could have due to his hand injuries.

 

[reedny]

Well it's pretty tough to compare two guys when one guy has played 92% of our minutes and the other guy has played 32% of our minutes. From a purely statistical standpoint, Gbinije has a higher EFG, higher true shooting, higher assist rate, lower turnover rate, comparable block rate, and higher steal rate. Their usage rates aren't in the same universe though.

All that being said, I don't think anyone would expect Gbinije to be able to put up the same kind of numbers in CJ's minutes/role.

Not to mention that CJ's featured on every opposing team's defensive scouting report.

 

[reedny]

So... I love Baye, but I disagree with this. Rak's a much better player. I don't even think it's close. People always talk about Baye providing this intangible benefit to the team, and that's cool, I don't doubt he contributes that way I just think he's a fairly unproductive player. Aside from blocks and the occasional offensive board, his other stats more or less occur on accident. Rak on the other hand actually does things that show up on the stat sheet. Baye has a glow on him thanks in large part to our tourney run last season.

Now, all that said, I believe that JB trusts Keita more in a lot of cases, and I also believe that Keita never developed quite the way he could have due to his hand injuries.

I think you're right on talent. But Baye doesn't disappear (defensively) for long stretches.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think you're right on talent. But Baye doesn't disappear (defensively) for long stretches.

I think Baye occasionally disappears on defense for long stretches. Also, if you count defensive rebounding as part of defense (which I think makes sense), Baye definitely disappears for long stretches at a time.

 

[JOC44]

Rak on the other hand actually does things that show up on the stat sheet. Baye has a glow on him thanks in large part to our tourney run last season.

There's no stat to measure the foul line jumper that never happens because BMK steps out to prevent it. Or the three from the corner that never gets taken because BMK closes out.

That observation isn't anti-Rak. He's the better center against teams that pound it down low and lack a guy who can make the foul line jumper.

 

[JOC44]

I think Baye occasionally disappears on defense for long stretches. Also, if you count defensive rebounding as part of defense (which I think makes sense), Baye definitely disappears for long stretches at a time.

Baye is usually in poor defensive rebounding position because his role in the zone is to push out on the foul line shooter. Our zone is designed for the forwards to swoop in for the boards with help from our guards. As I said a week or so ago, any SU center who gets eight boards in a game should get a medal.

 

[CorduroyG]

So... I love Baye, but I disagree with this. Rak's a much better player. I don't even think it's close. People always talk about Baye providing this intangible benefit to the team, and that's cool, I don't doubt he contributes that way I just think he's a fairly unproductive player. Aside from blocks and the occasional offensive board, his other stats more or less occur on accident. Rak on the other hand actually does things that show up on the stat sheet. Baye has a glow on him thanks in large part to our tourney run last season.

Now, all that said, I believe that JB trusts Keita more in a lot of cases, and I also believe that Keita never developed quite the way he could have due to his hand injuries.

i agree 100%, rak is better than keita. and hes turning into a real weapon in the post even though we dont get it to him enough, whereas baye isnt even an option in the post.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

There's no stat to measure the foul line jumper that never happens because BMK steps out to prevent it. Or the three from the corner that never gets taken because BMK closes out.

I agree. But how many other players are viewed as highly as Baye is by our fanbase whose best attributes are things like preventing foul line jumpers and closing out on threes well from the center position?

Look, I really like Baye. I think he's extremely valuable and a very good back up center at our level. I've talked about that for a long time here. But I also think it's really weird how comfortable our fans are putting forward unmeasurables as the best arguments for why Baye is a good player.

 

[skurey]

Yes, I get the idea of statistics. But not all stats are equally valuable or illuminating. If you're trying to compare WHiP or OPS to BABIP in baseball, for example, the prior two are much more telling than the latter. Stats rarely tell the whole story and some stats are far more valuable than others

Right. Not sure what this discussion is about then. Advanced stats are clearly more valuable than the regular basketball stats. Obviously context is needed and people shouldn't be throwing out numbers without knowing what they mean.

 

[skurey]

I agree. But how many other players are viewed as highly as Baye is by our fanbase whose best attributes are things like preventing foul line jumpers and closing out on threes well from the center position?

Look, I really like Baye. I think he's extremely valuable and a very good back up center at our level. I've talked about that for a long time here. But I also think it's really weird how comfortable our fans are putting forward unmeasurables as the best arguments for why Baye is a good player.

Lot of it comes down to "trust JB" which has been the focus of many forum wars over the years.

 

[reedny]

I think Baye occasionally disappears on defense for long stretches. Also, if you count defensive rebounding as part of defense (which I think makes sense), Baye definitely disappears for long stretches at a time.

Well this comes down to opinion, but comparing the 2 players, I think it's pretty clear that Rak has more talent and, at least defensively, Baye is more consistent. That's how it appears to me, although Rak is improving and is, overall, a more productive player. Baye has pretty much no offense. But he usually hustles and moves his feet well on D.

In fact, I think Baye's D, with some help from Rak here and there, was instrumental in getting us to the FF last year.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

I agree. But how many other players are viewed as highly as Baye is by our fanbase whose best attributes are things like preventing foul line jumpers and closing out on threes well from the center position?

Look, I really like Baye. I think he's extremely valuable and a very good back up center at our level. I've talked about that for a long time here. But I also think it's really weird how comfortable our fans are putting forward unmeasurables as the best arguments for why Baye is a good player.

Thank you for taking this position. Of course we all know how I feel, but I'm glad you are saying it so I don't have to get called out for being a BMK hater again.

And why isn't it talked about that when Baye closes out on the three balls from the corner, it seems to lead to an easy bucket inside for the other team because he ends up soooo far out of position? He does seem to contest the foul line jumpers a bit better, but he has yet (as far as I've seen) blocked a single three taken from either corner, yet he goes for the block every time. And ends up nearly off the court; instead of just contesting the shot and getting back inside. And here's the other thing on the defensive end. When Rak is in a crowd and goes up for the board, 9 times out of 10 it seems like he's coming down with the ball. With Baye, it's more like 5 times out of 10. And I have no actual stats or data to back that up.

 

[JOC44]

But I also think it's really weird how comfortable our fans are putting forward unmeasurables as the best arguments for why Baye is a good player.

It's because the best things he does are, in fact, unmeasurable.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

It's because the best things he does are, in fact, unmeasurable.

And so, I would posit, if the best things a player does are unmeasurable, they are not as good as a player that does measurable things better.

 

[orangefan13]

CJ, for all he does well, is not a tremendous passer. We have fared much better against zone this season with Grant manning the foul line ... we really struggled at times last year with CJ at the foul line against zone defense. I would imagine his assist/TO ratio is not very good this year or last.

I have ben watching and Fair rarely has a open man in a scoring position to pass to even when hes doubled this year its strange. Wish he had a isolation spot on the floor where he could find a open Ennis or Cooney more often with Grant as plan B. The majority of his turnovers have come off a high dribble on the perimeter and posting up. When he keeps the ball low hes ok, but you can't do that from further out as much. His Jabstep is really beginning to mature its his special move so far this year. Fair has the ability to take over this team and be real emotional on offense, he did that well in a few of the first 10 games, but haven't seen much of that the last 10 maybe none of them. I expect that to change as the year goes on though. He is playing 40 minutes a game and knows it.

There's no stat to measure the foul line jumper that never happens because BMK steps out to prevent it. Or the three from the corner that never gets taken because BMK closes out.

That observation isn't anti-Rak. He's the better center against teams that pound it down low and lack a guy who can make the foul line jumper.

Agree, rewatched the @miami game and Baye was a huge reason we won down the stretch, Miami went inside and Baye closed out on his man every play. He extends alittle further out gets lower down in a defensive stance,and forces you to drive on him uncomfortably better then Rak. If we had Rak in at the end of the miami game, good chance it would have been a closer game at the end.

Without Baye and with a healthy Dajuan and Rak this year whats our record instead? I wouldn't be suprised if it had 2-3 losses.

 

[Knicks411]

And so, I would posit, if the best things a player does are unmeasurable, they are not as good as a player that does measurable things better.

I agree, it just seems on some level, like a self fulfilling prophecy. If you can't measure what someone does well, then you can make him as good as you want in those things to make up for the fact that he doesn't match up in other categories.

 

[SWC75]

I think it does confirm what I see with my eyes. My eyes tell me that Cooney's performance has been in decline, and this shows it - Cooney was the leader in every category at the end of the pre-conference season. My eyes tell me that Tyler Ennis is far and away the most important player on the team, despite his somewhat pedestrian numbers in the old-fashioned stats, and this confirms it. My eyes tell me that CJ, despite his good numbers in the old-fashioned stats, has not really made the leap as the featured offensive player, and advanced stats demonstrate that he has gone from a high efficiency, moderate volume player last year to a high volume, moderate efficiency player this year.

if you really want to know what each one signifies, it isn't that difficult to google their definitions.

Same conclusions I came to with my "Net Points".

 

[moqui]

Same conclusions I came to with my "Net Points".

so, it's not that you are opposed to advanced stats, it's just that you don't want the competition for your counting & summing, Model T version of them

 

[two3zone]

Without Baye and with a healthy Dajuan and Rak this year whats our record instead? I wouldn't be suprised if it had 2-3 losses.

This is up there with the Theus > MCW comment for me.

 

[SWC75]

so, it's not that you are opposed to advanced stats, it's just that you don't want the competition for your counting & summing, Model T version of them

Right. If my model T arrives at the same destination, why use up so much gas?

 

[LennX6]

I guess it depends on how you define "advanced." I'm skeptcial of the value of these types of stats in free-flowing sports like basketball and soccer. That Gbinije comes out ahead of Fair in three of four categories doesn't comport with what I am seeing with my eyes.

Can I borrow this for the book I am writing? How data has destroyed the world.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Same conclusions I came to with my "Net Points".

Well the advantage of something like Win Shares, WS/40, is that it puts it in context of wins. Net Points treats all actions equally, where a rebound might not be equal to an assist.