Some general musings/thoughts on the schedule

[JeremyCuse]

With the season fast approaching thought I would give a few thoughts about this years schedule and what we maybe looking at record wise. Will hold off from posting about players or positions until we get closer to the season. Hard to believe its a little more then a month away.

Sat Feb. 10 -- Binghamton, 1 p.m.
Sat Feb. 17 -- Albany, 2 p.m.
Sat Feb. 24 -- Army, 2 p.m.
Sun March 4 -- at Virginia, 3 p.m.
Sat March 10 -- Johns Hopkins, 1 p.m.
Sun March 18 -- at Rutgers, 1 p.m.
Sat March 24 -- at Duke, 1:30 p.m.
Sat March 31 -- Notre Dame, 5 p.m.
Tues April 3 -- Hobart, 7 p.m.
Tues April 10 -- at Cornell, 7 p.m.
Sat April 14 -- North Carolina, 5 p.m.
Sat April 21 -- Navy, 2 p.m.
Fri April 27 -- ACC Semifinals at Virginia, 1 p.m./3:30 p.m.
Sun April 29 -- ACC Finals at Virginia, 12 p.m.
Sat May 5 -- Colgate, 2 p.m

My first thoughts when this broke a few months ago (officially announced recently) was that SU had toughened up the schedule a year to early. I understand that there was some trepidation based on SU getting shafted with the 8 seed two years ago but I think we may have jumped the gun a little bit for a few reasons.
1. Some teams that have been down a bit the last few years look poised to make jumps back into releveancy - Cornell/UVA
2. While SU never truly rebuilds they lost a lot on offense and this type of schedule is more geared for a Sr laden team a la Rice and Galasso's SR year when SU played a similar type of a schedule.

Obviously the schedule is what it is this year so what can we expect?
I forsee a few things and I am hoping for a couple more

1. I think Albany fans are going to get there W this year and they may get it in blowout fashion. It stings me to say this but Albany will be way ahead of SU at the beginning of the year on offense and at the X. I think we match up with them decently on defense with Mellen able to cover Fields and Bomberry being extremely familiar with Nanticoke but I think Albany might do to us what Ben Williams did them to 3 out of the last 4 games and just dominate possession and I don't think the D will be ready to hold up to that kind of onslaught nor do I expect this offense to be able to hang in a shootout with what will be a mostly senior laden Albany offense save for a few players. Albany's two best poles are also Seniors. Id feel better if we were playing Albany later in the year once this offense finds its footing and Marr inevitabley wears Ierlan down from the grind of 30+ draws a game but we don't have that luxury.

2. A key stretch of the schedule is the back end -
April 3 -- Hobart, 7 p.m.
Tues April 10 -- at Cornell, 7 p.m.
Sat April 14 -- North Carolina, 5 p.m.
Sat April 21 -- Navy, 2 p.m.
SU to me needs to at minimum be 3-1 here especially if they struggle with that brutal mid stretch of UVA, Hopkins, Rutty, Duke, ND. Cornell will be much improved and UNC is always a PIA but 3 of the 4 are at home and only the UNC game has less then 7 days rest. That Navy game is a trap game in my opinion, they will be improved with Rees back from his injury but theres no telling what type of team might come in that far into the season. If there struggling like last year that game becomes a no win situation. UNC lost a decent amount to graduation including Kelly, Goldstock, and there best SDDMs, they have a lot ? like we do.

3. This schedule with St. Johns or Siena on it would be better. I don't mind replacing one of them but I think replacing both was a mistake. You need a few baked in wins to every schedule and we took 2 (mostly gimmies) away. Would hate to have the #1 SOS but find ourselves in the same spot as UNC last year struggling to be eligible because we weren't .500.

4. Must win games - If this team is going to make it to the NCAA tourney to me these game are must wins on the schedule - Bingo, Army, Hobart, Navy, Colgate, Hopkins. I put Hopkins here not because I consider them less then teh Dukes Albanys etc but because they are a home game and have some big ? as well. Also SU has really played them well the last few years despite blowing that big lead a few years ago. Army's D should be very good as usual (shocking I know) but I think there offense is going to struggle especially early as they lost there best O player to graduation. I know they always give us fits but we need to find a way to win that game. Bingo and Hobart will both be decent teams especially Hobart but again we need to win. Colgate is rebuilding, no reason this game should be close. Navy your guess is as good as mine, good faceoff guy and Rees is back but other then that its a crapshoot.

5. Need to steal one or two - The toughest games to me in no particular order are Albany, Duke, ND, Rutty, UVA, UNC/Hopkins. I already touched on Hopkins and to a lesser extent UNC so between Albany, Duke, ND, Rutty and UVA I think SU needs to find 2 wins, 1 at bare minimum. ALbany and Duke to me will be extremely difficult games so to me the best shots are ND and UVA. Rutgers will be a very tough game and to be honest one I probably wouldn't have scheduled this year. There attack will be very potent especially if Charlambides is back at 100% from his injury (unclear at this point). They have a lot of seniors on that team as well so they will have the experience factor to go with a couple of young hot shot O players. They have been hit hard with the injury bug the last few years so theres no telling what they may look like when we play them if that trend holds. They can also get out of sorts as they like to play a run and gun style thats UVA light ( see the Hopkins game last year). For me the game to circle is ND. SU has always played them well under Dekso save for that blowout a few years ago and I think SU matches up very well with them. Can't say I feel the same about UVA. There is so much young offensive talent down there its a bit scary. They lost a sneaky amount to graduation and have some big Defensive question marks but I think there headed in the right direction with all that O talent.

 

[ctlax]

Wow, tell us what you really think. Great synopsis!

 

[sholokov2]

With the season fast approaching thought I would give a few thoughts about this years schedule and what we maybe looking at record wise. Will hold off from posting about players or positions until we get closer to the season. Hard to believe its a little more then a month away.

Sat Feb. 10 -- Binghamton, 1 p.m.
Sat Feb. 17 -- Albany, 2 p.m.
Sat Feb. 24 -- Army, 2 p.m.
Sun March 4 -- at Virginia, 3 p.m.
Sat March 10 -- Johns Hopkins, 1 p.m.
Sun March 18 -- at Rutgers, 1 p.m.
Sat March 24 -- at Duke, 1:30 p.m.
Sat March 31 -- Notre Dame, 5 p.m.
Tues April 3 -- Hobart, 7 p.m.
Tues April 10 -- at Cornell, 7 p.m.
Sat April 14 -- North Carolina, 5 p.m.
Sat April 21 -- Navy, 2 p.m.
Fri April 27 -- ACC Semifinals at Virginia, 1 p.m./3:30 p.m.
Sun April 29 -- ACC Finals at Virginia, 12 p.m.
Sat May 5 -- Colgate, 2 p.m

My first thoughts when this broke a few months ago (officially announced recently) was that SU had toughened up the schedule a year to early. I understand that there was some trepidation based on SU getting shafted with the 8 seed two years ago but I think we may have jumped the gun a little bit for a few reasons.
1. Some teams that have been down a bit the last few years look poised to make jumps back into releveancy - Cornell/UVA
2. While SU never truly rebuilds they lost a lot on offense and this type of schedule is more geared for a Sr laden team a la Rice and Galasso's SR year when SU played a similar type of a schedule.

Obviously the schedule is what it is this year so what can we expect?
I forsee a few things and I am hoping for a couple more

1. I think Albany fans are going to get there W this year and they may get it in blowout fashion. It stings me to say this but Albany will be way ahead of SU at the beginning of the year on offense and at the X. I think we match up with them decently on defense with Mellen able to cover Fields and Bomberry being extremely familiar with Nanticoke but I think Albany might do to us what Ben Williams did them to 3 out of the last 4 games and just dominate possession and I don't think the D will be ready to hold up to that kind of onslaught nor do I expect this offense to be able to hang in a shootout with what will be a mostly senior laden Albany offense save for a few players. Albany's two best poles are also Seniors. Id feel better if we were playing Albany later in the year once this offense finds its footing and Marr inevitabley wears Ierlan down from the grind of 30+ draws a game but we don't have that luxury.

2. A key stretch of the schedule is the back end -
April 3 -- Hobart, 7 p.m.
Tues April 10 -- at Cornell, 7 p.m.
Sat April 14 -- North Carolina, 5 p.m.
Sat April 21 -- Navy, 2 p.m.
SU to me needs to at minimum be 3-1 here especially if they struggle with that brutal mid stretch of UVA, Hopkins, Rutty, Duke, ND. Cornell will be much improved and UNC is always a PIA but 3 of the 4 are at home and only the UNC game has less then 7 days rest. That Navy game is a trap game in my opinion, they will be improved with Rees back from his injury but theres no telling what type of team might come in that far into the season. If there struggling like last year that game becomes a no win situation. UNC lost a decent amount to graduation including Kelly, Goldstock, and there best SDDMs, they have a lot ? like we do.

3. This schedule with St. Johns or Siena on it would be better. I don't mind replacing one of them but I think replacing both was a mistake. You need a few baked in wins to every schedule and we took 2 (mostly gimmies) away. Would hate to have the #1 SOS but find ourselves in the same spot as UNC last year struggling to be eligible because we weren't .500.

4. Must win games - If this team is going to make it to the NCAA tourney to me these game are must wins on the schedule - Bingo, Army, Hobart, Navy, Colgate, Hopkins. I put Hopkins here not because I consider them less then teh Dukes Albanys etc but because they are a home game and have some big ? as well. Also SU has really played them well the last few years despite blowing that big lead a few years ago. Army's D should be very good as usual (shocking I know) but I think there offense is going to struggle especially early as they lost there best O player to graduation. I know they always give us fits but we need to find a way to win that game. Bingo and Hobart will both be decent teams especially Hobart but again we need to win. Colgate is rebuilding, no reason this game should be close. Navy your guess is as good as mine, good faceoff guy and Rees is back but other then that its a crapshoot.

5. Need to steal one or two - The toughest games to me in no particular order are Albany, Duke, ND, Rutty, UVA, UNC/Hopkins. I already touched on Hopkins and to a lesser extent UNC so between Albany, Duke, ND, Rutty and UVA I think SU needs to find 2 wins, 1 at bare minimum. ALbany and Duke to me will be extremely difficult games so to me the best shots are ND and UVA. Rutgers will be a very tough game and to be honest one I probably wouldn't have scheduled this year. There attack will be very potent especially if Charlambides is back at 100% from his injury (unclear at this point). They have a lot of seniors on that team as well so they will have the experience factor to go with a couple of young hot shot O players. They have been hit hard with the injury bug the last few years so theres no telling what they may look like when we play them if that trend holds. They can also get out of sorts as they like to play a run and gun style thats UVA light ( see the Hopkins game last year). For me the game to circle is ND. SU has always played them well under Dekso save for that blowout a few years ago and I think SU matches up very well with them. Can't say I feel the same about UVA. There is so much young offensive talent down there its a bit scary. They lost a sneaky amount to graduation and have some big Defensive question marks but I think there headed in the right direction with all that O talent.

I am terrible at handicapping one game, let alone all 13. I think anyone can beat SU this year with the possible exception of Colgate. For example, take a look at Bingo's roster. It's full of LI guys who have played for very sound LI teams. They know how to play against the best competition. My primary disagreement is with your lament for the loss of cupcakes at the beginning of the year. I know Jack Emmer, former Army coach, very well. He was certain that playing SU after they demolished two or three cupcakes was a big advantage for Army in that they were not ready to handle the intensity of the Army team, the maturity, the toughness, and roughness of the Army guys. After watching SU against Army all these years, I believe he is right. I have pushed for tougher games in the beginning of the year to better prepare the team for really good teams. I'll take a loss in game one or two if it sets SU up for better results later. Even with a bunch of young guys playing significant minutes. For the last few years, the shibboleths about player confidence varying from play to play, quarter to quarter, game to game etc. have driven me bats. Losing a game, being outplayed are experiences having only complex and doubtful effects on player confidence. Stop with this stuff. There are many psychological factors involved in player performance.

 

[JeremyCuse]

I am terrible at handicapping one game, let alone all 13. I think anyone can beat SU this year with the possible exception of Colgate. For example, take a look at Bingo's roster. It's full of LI guys who have played for very sound LI teams. They know how to play against the best competition. My primary disagreement is with your lament for the loss of cupcakes at the beginning of the year. I know Jack Emmer, former Army coach, very well. He was certain that playing SU after they demolished two or three cupcakes was a big advantage for Army in that they were not ready to handle the intensity of the Army team, the maturity, the toughness, and roughness of the Army guys. After watching SU against Army all these years, I believe he is right. I have pushed for tougher games in the beginning of the year to better prepare the team for really good teams. I'll take a loss in game one or two if it sets SU up for better results later. Even with a bunch of young guys playing significant minutes. For the last few years, the shibboleths about player confidence varying from play to play, quarter to quarter, game to game etc. have driven me bats. Losing a game, being outplayed are experiences having only complex and doubtful effects on player confidence. Stop with this stuff. There are many psychological factors involved in player performance.

Good post, a few thoughts: I certainly don't think Bingo is a cupcake by any stretch but they lost a ton to graduation including Moore who was really the entire focal point of there offense. I think they may have lost there goalie as well. This should be a game that maybe plays out like the Hofstra scrimmage very close low scoring first half with SU breaking away in the second. If this is a close game late or god forbid we lost, that would be a horrific sign.

I think your point about Army and toughness is valid but not both of those games that we switched were right in the beginning. The St. Johns game has been played somewhere around the 4th-6th game of the year and definitely after Army. I think Army gives SU fits because there a very good defensive team that is usually solid at the X and in Goal and knows how to gameplan for SU. They also rarely beat themselves so it ends up being a close game more times then not. SU has had a lot of success late in the season there first 3/4 years in the ACC as save for last year we were in the ACC title game every year and usually made a nice run. Problem has been letdowns post ACC tournament. A tougher up front schedule will definitely help against the Dukes, NDs, and UNCs of the world but you also need to have a few easier games to get W's and get some different guys PT and build up that record/resume. I do agree about your last point with player confidence and many factors coming into play.

 

[Orangtiz]

I like our odds vs Scooby this year actually. I think we matchup nicely with them if Varello and the rest of the Sandbox keep the the face-off X close meaning Irelan only wins roughly 55% I think they can pull off the upset. I think that this year's defense might be better than last years, so long as the shorties are solid. Mellen will obviously check Fields and I think he will do a solid job. On the other side Bomberry (who is a STUD) will have to check Nanticoke, but I bet he has guarded him before as both are from Six Nations I believe.

On offense Syracuse will have a game under their belt to figure things out somewhat, get comfortable and some confidence. Albany's Goalie Colarusso graduated last year too. Cuse always does well on offense vs Albany and can usually get what they want.

Of course this is all contingent on the face-off X battle staying close.

 

[sholokov2]

Good post, a few thoughts: I certainly don't think Bingo is a cupcake by any stretch but they lost a ton to graduation including Moore who was really the entire focal point of there offense. I think they may have lost there goalie as well. This should be a game that maybe plays out like the Hofstra scrimmage very close low scoring first half with SU breaking away in the second. If this is a close game late or god forbid we lost, that would be a horrific sign.

I think your point about Army and toughness is valid but not both of those games that we switched were right in the beginning. The St. Johns game has been played somewhere around the 4th-6th game of the year and definitely after Army. I think Army gives SU fits because there a very good defensive team that is usually solid at the X and in Goal and knows how to gameplan for SU. They also rarely beat themselves so it ends up being a close game more times then not. SU has had a lot of success late in the season there first 3/4 years in the ACC as save for last year we were in the ACC title game every year and usually made a nice run. Problem has been letdowns post ACC tournament. A tougher up front schedule will definitely help against the Dukes, NDs, and UNCs of the world but you also need to have a few easier games to get W's and get some different guys PT and build up that record/resume. I do agree about your last point with player confidence and many factors coming into play.

good points!

 

[laxsummit]

I enjoyed reading all the posts above. There are advantages and disadvantages to a tough schedule. Team will be better off for the experience in long run but it could be very difficult and wearing in the shorter run. I personally like a challenging SOS but also think every team in every sport needs the occasional game that allows them to breathe some rather than an extended stretch that does not. As such, wish the stretch of games vs Hobart, Cornell, UNC and Navy had been broken up and sprinkled about with Army later. Wouldn't have changed the SOS but perhaps allowed better balance. First eight games of season on a relative parallel would be tough for any highly ranked team in any sport