Another season in the books and plenty of time to digest what will happen next season, but figured it's worth taking a minute to put together a post of random thoughts on Red, the returning players, the departed players and generally what to think of the future of this program (I'm intentionally avoiding the JB discussion b/c it is what it is). So with that ...
Looking back
Appreciating Jesse Edwards
I have to believe we won't see either of these guys in orange next season (though I truly hope I'm wrong) so I wanted to just take a minute to appreciate what these guys did this year since I truly believe it will be lost a bit in the disappointment of another mediocre season.
I tend to break Syracuse history into three eras -- the era before I was a fan (let's say pre-86) where I can't really comment with any sort of context, the era from the mid-80s to the early 90s when we not only had an incredible wealth of talent but all the talent stayed for 3-4 years; and everything after 95-96 when we switched to zone full time. You could probably add another era in here for the past 7, 8, 9 seasons when we've struggled but whatever. Anyway, point is, since the start of the 95-96 season we've had exactly three seasons wherein a player averaged a double-double in pts/rbs. The other two were Rick and Carmelo. So Jesse's ~15 ppg and 10.3 rpg is easily one of the most prolific seasons we've had from a big in the past 28 seasons. If you wanted to take it further and go all the way back to 75-76 (48 seasons) the only additional seasons would be three DC seasons and Billy O's junior year. That's the list for nearly 50 years. That's a damn good year.
Not for nothing, the only seasons since 75-76 that are significantly better than Jesse's 2.8 blocks/gm are three Etan seasons (the man was a monster), Darryl Watkins in 05-06 (3.5) and DC in 88-89 (3.3).
I'll always be a bit disappointed b/c I feel like Jesse left a little bit of meat on the bone offensively, but the man had a really, really impressive season.
Appreciating Judah
The further we get away from it the more we'll realize how good freshman year Judah was -- late game struggles aside. Consider: on 12/10, my man was 2 for 16 from three. The rest of the way, he shot 36% from three. The last 12 games of the season, he shot .467 ... and we'll never think of him as a shooter. But that really encapsulates how unique his season was. We've had plenty of players who've improved significantly year over year -- Hak, Damone Brown, Rautins, Rony, Waiters, Fab, etc. -- but Judah got so much better as the year went on. He just kept adding things to his game. He got to the rim and got to the line and got to his spots from day 1. But he became a really strong defensive player (getting skinny to get around screens, living in passing lanes, pressuring the ball), dramatically improved as a facilitator (averaged close to 5 assists/game in conference -- never would have seen that after the first few games of the year), drew an incredible amount of fouls, limited turnovers (pretty close to 2:1 assist/TO ratio). Kid had a fantastic frosh season.
Joe, Symir, JBA
All these guys had limitations to be sure, but worth noting that JBA helped us win a few games early with his defense, energy, and passing; Symir struggled a bit this season but still was a decent option off the bench, and Joe -- despite hurting us at times -- won us a few games with his offense and, in particular, his shooting. There's always going to be a lot of roster turnover and none of these guys was leading us to a title next year, but it's worth pointing out that a ton of experience is walking out the door with all five players. Will be a challenge for Red if we don't hit the portal one or two more times this off-season if all five of these guys are gone and we're trying to figure it out with what is currently on the roster.
Looking ahead
So that brings us to what lies ahead. Start with a couple Red topics and finish with some observations of guys returning.
Red will be under a lot of pressure from Day 1
It goes without saying that this fan base is starved for a winner. That's pressure enough. But add in that this team potentially loses two HUGE pieces in Edwards and Mintz and easily it's third best player (for better or for worse) in Girard and you've got a lot more questions than answers. And, let's not forget, that the first time we lose a game we 'shouldn't' lose or have a 3-game losing streak this board and talk radio will be flooded with folks saying this should have been a national search ... well, that's more fuel. Lastly, if Red does struggle for a year or two and we're not killing it in lax or football, then Wildhack could be on the hot seat as well. All of that feels to me like Red will have to win early and won't have the leeway for a 4- or 5-year plan to get us back on track. I doubt Red minds the pressure but it's at least worth noting.
How creative will Red and the staff get over the next several seasons?
So we all know JB, by his own admission, wasn't an eternal spring of youthful energy and we can surmise from our recruiting and on-court results the past five or six years in particular (you could go back 9 years, honestly), that this had a negative impact on the program. But with the transfer portal creating unprecedented player movement, NIL stuff, $$$ pouring into the SEC and B1G hoops programs, etc., a more robust and attractive G League option, the world of college hoops is unrecognizable from even, I don't know, 5 years ago? I've seen a lot of people talk about roster management and I agree, that's a big part of things. But I'm not sure these coaches will have the luxury of putting together rosters with an eye toward 2 or 3 years down the road. Barring changes in NIL/transfer stuff, I really think there will be significant roster turnover every single season. The staffs that are the most creative in blending traditional recruiting, spreading around NIL money, and hammering the transfer portal are going to be the most successful. Are you better off landing two big-time freshman or two big transfers? How do you manage NIL stuff? How much do you bother trying to develop talent vs. giving it a year and moving in a different direction if it doesn't work out? Don't know the answers to those questions but it will be interesting to watch.
Zone or man? Up-tempo?
We all have questions on the style we're likely to play but I really think the answers are more simple than we sometimes think. Good talent, for one, helps a lot of stuff, at least if the players are bought in. Secondly -- good m2m defenses often have a ton of zone principles (switching, blitzing pick-and-roles, secondary and tertiary slides, good communication). There are some teams that play a pretty true man, but most teams look more like a version of an old john cheney amoeba zone these days than they do a m2m team like we used to play in the 80s and 90s. Offensively, I hope we see more sets but honestly improved movement -- player and ball -- would be such a welcome change. Watching UConn was painful, but I give them credit -- very little ball-stopping, constant player movement, good, crisp execution. They weren't running a lot of complicated or exciting stuff, but they were constantly moving, playing together, and executing really well. I honestly believe if we are moving the ball better and getting better player movement on offense and playing a defense that dictates a bit more of the action defensively, that alone could make us more dangerous next year.
Back with a part II with some thoughts on returning players tomorrow-ish.
Looking back
Appreciating Jesse Edwards
I have to believe we won't see either of these guys in orange next season (though I truly hope I'm wrong) so I wanted to just take a minute to appreciate what these guys did this year since I truly believe it will be lost a bit in the disappointment of another mediocre season.
I tend to break Syracuse history into three eras -- the era before I was a fan (let's say pre-86) where I can't really comment with any sort of context, the era from the mid-80s to the early 90s when we not only had an incredible wealth of talent but all the talent stayed for 3-4 years; and everything after 95-96 when we switched to zone full time. You could probably add another era in here for the past 7, 8, 9 seasons when we've struggled but whatever. Anyway, point is, since the start of the 95-96 season we've had exactly three seasons wherein a player averaged a double-double in pts/rbs. The other two were Rick and Carmelo. So Jesse's ~15 ppg and 10.3 rpg is easily one of the most prolific seasons we've had from a big in the past 28 seasons. If you wanted to take it further and go all the way back to 75-76 (48 seasons) the only additional seasons would be three DC seasons and Billy O's junior year. That's the list for nearly 50 years. That's a damn good year.
Not for nothing, the only seasons since 75-76 that are significantly better than Jesse's 2.8 blocks/gm are three Etan seasons (the man was a monster), Darryl Watkins in 05-06 (3.5) and DC in 88-89 (3.3).
I'll always be a bit disappointed b/c I feel like Jesse left a little bit of meat on the bone offensively, but the man had a really, really impressive season.
Appreciating Judah
The further we get away from it the more we'll realize how good freshman year Judah was -- late game struggles aside. Consider: on 12/10, my man was 2 for 16 from three. The rest of the way, he shot 36% from three. The last 12 games of the season, he shot .467 ... and we'll never think of him as a shooter. But that really encapsulates how unique his season was. We've had plenty of players who've improved significantly year over year -- Hak, Damone Brown, Rautins, Rony, Waiters, Fab, etc. -- but Judah got so much better as the year went on. He just kept adding things to his game. He got to the rim and got to the line and got to his spots from day 1. But he became a really strong defensive player (getting skinny to get around screens, living in passing lanes, pressuring the ball), dramatically improved as a facilitator (averaged close to 5 assists/game in conference -- never would have seen that after the first few games of the year), drew an incredible amount of fouls, limited turnovers (pretty close to 2:1 assist/TO ratio). Kid had a fantastic frosh season.
Joe, Symir, JBA
All these guys had limitations to be sure, but worth noting that JBA helped us win a few games early with his defense, energy, and passing; Symir struggled a bit this season but still was a decent option off the bench, and Joe -- despite hurting us at times -- won us a few games with his offense and, in particular, his shooting. There's always going to be a lot of roster turnover and none of these guys was leading us to a title next year, but it's worth pointing out that a ton of experience is walking out the door with all five players. Will be a challenge for Red if we don't hit the portal one or two more times this off-season if all five of these guys are gone and we're trying to figure it out with what is currently on the roster.
Looking ahead
So that brings us to what lies ahead. Start with a couple Red topics and finish with some observations of guys returning.
Red will be under a lot of pressure from Day 1
It goes without saying that this fan base is starved for a winner. That's pressure enough. But add in that this team potentially loses two HUGE pieces in Edwards and Mintz and easily it's third best player (for better or for worse) in Girard and you've got a lot more questions than answers. And, let's not forget, that the first time we lose a game we 'shouldn't' lose or have a 3-game losing streak this board and talk radio will be flooded with folks saying this should have been a national search ... well, that's more fuel. Lastly, if Red does struggle for a year or two and we're not killing it in lax or football, then Wildhack could be on the hot seat as well. All of that feels to me like Red will have to win early and won't have the leeway for a 4- or 5-year plan to get us back on track. I doubt Red minds the pressure but it's at least worth noting.
How creative will Red and the staff get over the next several seasons?
So we all know JB, by his own admission, wasn't an eternal spring of youthful energy and we can surmise from our recruiting and on-court results the past five or six years in particular (you could go back 9 years, honestly), that this had a negative impact on the program. But with the transfer portal creating unprecedented player movement, NIL stuff, $$$ pouring into the SEC and B1G hoops programs, etc., a more robust and attractive G League option, the world of college hoops is unrecognizable from even, I don't know, 5 years ago? I've seen a lot of people talk about roster management and I agree, that's a big part of things. But I'm not sure these coaches will have the luxury of putting together rosters with an eye toward 2 or 3 years down the road. Barring changes in NIL/transfer stuff, I really think there will be significant roster turnover every single season. The staffs that are the most creative in blending traditional recruiting, spreading around NIL money, and hammering the transfer portal are going to be the most successful. Are you better off landing two big-time freshman or two big transfers? How do you manage NIL stuff? How much do you bother trying to develop talent vs. giving it a year and moving in a different direction if it doesn't work out? Don't know the answers to those questions but it will be interesting to watch.
Zone or man? Up-tempo?
We all have questions on the style we're likely to play but I really think the answers are more simple than we sometimes think. Good talent, for one, helps a lot of stuff, at least if the players are bought in. Secondly -- good m2m defenses often have a ton of zone principles (switching, blitzing pick-and-roles, secondary and tertiary slides, good communication). There are some teams that play a pretty true man, but most teams look more like a version of an old john cheney amoeba zone these days than they do a m2m team like we used to play in the 80s and 90s. Offensively, I hope we see more sets but honestly improved movement -- player and ball -- would be such a welcome change. Watching UConn was painful, but I give them credit -- very little ball-stopping, constant player movement, good, crisp execution. They weren't running a lot of complicated or exciting stuff, but they were constantly moving, playing together, and executing really well. I honestly believe if we are moving the ball better and getting better player movement on offense and playing a defense that dictates a bit more of the action defensively, that alone could make us more dangerous next year.
Back with a part II with some thoughts on returning players tomorrow-ish.
