Steph Curry killed our zone

[SWC75]

Baylor switched defenses against us and yet we shot the lights out, too. We win with Frank and we aren't even talking about this.

Anyway the historical SU three point percentage defense is in the Media Guide, (page 165), I took it back to the beginning of the collegiate three pointer, 1986-87. I'll include our percentages, (the first one) which were obtained vs. mostly man for man defenses. To save a bit of key pounding, that season will be "1987", the next year "1988" and so on.

1987 .403 vs. .357 = +46
1988 .378 vs. .371 = +7
1989 .370 vs. .353 = +17
1990 .331 vs. .320 = +11
1991 .353 vs. .320 = +33
1992 .335 vs. .314 = +21
1993 .324 vs. .354 = -30
1994 .306 vs. .328 = -22
1995 .340 vs. .342 = -2
1996 .360 vs. .299 = +61
1997 .365 vs. .296 = +69
1998 .329 vs. .322 = +7
1999 .311 vs. .341 = -30
2000 .354 vs. .326 = +28
2001 .335 vs. .322 = +13
2002 .333 vs. .314 = +19
2003 .344 vs. .303 = +41
2004 .328 vs. .294 = +34
2005 .313 vs. .326 = -13
2006 .339 vs. .342 = -3
2007 .365 vs. .327 = +38
2008 .341 vs. .353 = -12
2009 .345 vs. .295 = +50
2010 .391 vs. .302 = +89
2011 .354 vs. .315 = +39
2012 .349 vs. .315 = +34
2013 .334 vs. .284 = +50
2014 .331 vs. .345 = -14
2015 .301 vs. .315 = -14
2016 .360 vs. .307 = +53
2017 .381 vs. .342 = +39
2018 .318 vs. .318 = even
2019 .333 vs. .329 = +4

Our three point defense was really good from 2009-2013, when it averaged .302. But it was about the same last year as it was in 2011-2012 and the decline this year probably has a lot to do with the Frank Howard situation.

2010 was when we shifted to 100% zone. It doesn't seem to have hurt our three point defense.

For me the big takeaway is that our three point percentage, against mostly man for man defenses has been higher than what we've given up 24 times in 33 seasons. We haven't tended to be a "shoot the lights out" team and most of our opponents have tended to be more dependent on the three pointer than we were.

Our success seems to have varied based on the quality of talent we had on specific teams. Surprise, surprise.

This is a companion to my post on three point defense. These are the numbers since 1986-87 (’1987’):

1987 .529 vs. .448 = +81
1988 .541 vs. .449 = +92
1989 .575 vs. .470 = +105
1990 .571 vs. .449 = +122
1991 .513 vs. .465 = +48
1992 .471 vs. .471 = Even
1993 .520 vs. .459 = +61
1994 .529 vs. .448 = +81
1995 .537 vs. .435 = +102
1996 .502 vs. .459 = +43
1997 .468 vs. .443 = +25
1998 .481 vs. .459 = +22
1999 .507 vs. .409 = +98
2000 .509 vs. .442 = +67
2001 .474 vs. .454 = +20
2002 .493 vs. .450 = +43
2003 .519 vs. .436 = +83
2004 .505 vs. .457 = +48
2005 .543 vs. .431 = +112
2006 .496 vs. .424 = +72
2007 .485 vs. .405 = +80
2008 .533 vs. .468 = +65
2009 .557 vs. .481 = +76
2010 .571 vs. .462 = +109
2011 .527 vs. .444 = +83
2012 .519 vs. .425 = +94
2013 .485 vs. .426 = +59
2014 .477 vs. .455 = +22
2015 .483 vs. .459 = +24
2016 .472 vs. .481 = -9
2017 .512 vs. .455 = +57
2018 .466 vs. .451 = +15
2019 .493 vs. .468 = +35

Generally our best teams have bene the strongest in scoring and stopping the other team within the arc. The zone is designed to push teams outside and make them reliant on jumpers from there which, by nature, are the most erratic skill in the game. We do a pretty good job of that, although the results vary. Two of our best teams in defending the two are 1999, another team which lost an 8-9 game and 2007, an NIT team. But we have certainly slipped in this department in the last few years. The big drop-off has bene on offense. we’ve been under .500 on two point shots in 6 of the last 7 years after being above .500 for 5 years in a row before that and 19 times between 1987-2012. The downturn dates from when JB came back from the London Olympics, (with Mike D’ Antoni), and began running isos and pick and rolls instead of a motion and fast-breaking offense as we had been. It also generally corresponds to when we have had poor offensive centers, save for Rakeem Christmas’s senior year, although the one time we hit .500 of our two pointers was in 2017 when we also had the best three point shooting team we’ve had in that time. .

 

[CuseCPT]

This is a companion to my post on three point defense. These are the numbers since 1986-87 (’1987’):

1987 .529 vs. .448 = +81
1988 .541 vs. .449 = +92
1989 .575 vs. .470 = +105
1990 .571 vs. .449 = +122
1991 .513 vs. .465 = +48
1992 .471 vs. .471 = Even
1993 .520 vs. .459 = +61
1994 .529 vs. .448 = +81
1995 .537 vs. .435 = +102
1996 .502 vs. .459 = +43
1997 .468 vs. .443 = +25
1998 .481 vs. .459 = +22
1999 .507 vs. .409 = +98
2000 .509 vs. .442 = +67
2001 .474 vs. .454 = +20
2002 .493 vs. .450 = +43
2003 .519 vs. .436 = +83
2004 .505 vs. .457 = +48
2005 .543 vs. .431 = +112
2006 .496 vs. .424 = +72
2007 .485 vs. .405 = +80
2008 .533 vs. .468 = +65
2009 .557 vs. .481 = +76
2010 .571 vs. .462 = +109
2011 .527 vs. .444 = +83
2012 .519 vs. .425 = +94
2013 .485 vs. .426 = +59
2014 .477 vs. .455 = +22
2015 .483 vs. .459 = +24
2016 .472 vs. .481 = -9
2017 .512 vs. .455 = +57
2018 .466 vs. .451 = +15
2019 .493 vs. .468 = +35

Generally our best teams have bene the strongest in scoring and stopping the other team within the arc. The zone is designed to push teams outside and make them reliant on jumpers from there which, by nature, are the most erratic skill in the game. We do a pretty good job of that, although the results vary. Two of our best teams in defending the two are 1999, another team which lost an 8-9 game and 2007, an NIT team. But we have certainly slipped in this department in the last few years. The big drop-off has bene on offense. we’ve been under .500 on two point shots in 6 of the last 7 years after being above .500 for 5 years in a row before that and 19 times between 1987-2012. The downturn dates from when JB came back from the London Olympics, (with Mike D’ Antoni), and began running isos and pick and rolls instead of a motion and fast-breaking offense as we had been. It also generally corresponds to when we have had poor offensive centers, save for Rakeem Christmas’s senior year, although the one time we hit .500 of our two pointers was in 2017 when we also had the best three point shooting team we’ve had in that time. .

Season stats don't tell the full story because basketball is played and judged one game at a time.

Most of the people on this board seem make arguments to solve the question of which defense is better, man-to-man or zone? But that isn't really the questions. The question people ask, and get shouted down for asking, is this. Is the zone the best defense to play at this particular time in this particular game?

The frustration is from the perception that JB also looks at basketball on the basis of season season stats. When a coach plays one defense exclusively unless they are getting blown out one could be forgiven for getting the impression that JB is going to play zone because most of the time it's going to work. If it doesn't? There's always next game. Our backup defense, the full court press, has been effective but it seems to only get deployed in emergencies and it doesn't mesh well with a short bench philosophy since it both tiring and prone to fouling.

 

[SWC75]

Season stats don't tell the full story because basketball is played and judged one game at a time.

Most of the people on this board seem make arguments to solve the question of which defense is better, man-to-man or zone? But that isn't really the questions. The question people ask, and get shouted down for asking, is this. Is the zone the best defense to play at this particular time in this particular game?

The frustration is from the perception that JB also looks at basketball on the basis of season season stats. When a coach plays one defense exclusively unless they are getting blown out one could be forgiven for getting the impression that JB is going to play zone because most of the time it's going to work. If it doesn't? There's always next game. Our backup defense, the full court press, has been effective but it seems to only get deployed in emergencies and it doesn't mesh well with a short bench philosophy since it both tiring and prone to fouling.

People insist the zone is always the same defense for every opponent. JB has always insisted that he can adjust his defense to the opponent and situation. You might want to call into his show next year and debate him on the subject. The results could be interesting.

 

[CuseCPT]

People insist the zone is always the same defense for every opponent. JB has always insisted that he can adjust his defense to the opponent and situation. You might want to call into his show next year and debate him on the subject. The results could be interesting.

I have no doubt that there are a myriad of little adjustments JB can, and does, make to his zone during the game and between games based on opponent. On some nights, none of them work. On those nights we all know the result. They shot the ball really well, tonight. Our defense was good, they just hit tough shots. He was really dialed in tonight. They shot the lights out.

I'm good on calling in. Jimmy's reply would be his usual "when you have YOUR team, you can try that", and he'd be right. It is his team until he decides to hang it up, whenever that may be.

 

[two3zone]

It’s just so bizarre. There are people who love the zone and they’re generally JB loyalists. There are people who hate the zone and they generally don’t actually look into the math. But both sides miss the point: it’s about the offense for SU...not the defense.

And I don’t love the zone, but I can see the equation.

44cuse

I love the zone, but I also love the idea of switching to man or playing close to a guy that's torching us and recruiting offensive players who can learn it rather than getting the Brissett's and Frank Howard's of the world.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Last year we held 4 teams well below their three point percentage in the tournament. One year and one tournament game later Steph Curry has killed our zone.

Hooooooooooooot taaaaaaaaaaaakes