Syracuse vs the spread. Some results.

[cliftonparksufan]

I don't bet, but I do follow the spreads because I love to look at the numbers and try and figure out what Vegas is thinking. For the season Cuse is 15-14 vs the spread including 0-4 in the last four games. In addition Syracuse is 12-15-2 vs the over including only going over only 4 out of the last 14 games. However Cuse has beat the over 2 out of the last three games due to the number really coming down.

When we played Louisville on the road, we were three point favorites. Since then we have won four straight (including their game) and they have lost 3 of 5. Since we are going to play at home on Saturday, we should be favored by eight or nine, which is a pretty big number.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/syracuse

Now looking at Kentucky, they are 11-16 vs the spread. At one point during the season they did not cover in 13 of 14 games. But then right after that, they covered in 7 of 8 games. Also Kentucky for the season is 10-16 vs the over and in a recent game vs Mississippi State they had a push vs the spread and a push vs the over. I would guess that is very uncommon.

So what does this all mean. Since I don't bet it doesn't mean too much, but since I like numbers I find it interested to follow. I do work with some guys who do bet though and I just laugh at them.
I guess looking at all this, I would find it very hard to win money on a consistent basis. No matter how good teams like Syracuse and Kentucky are, the results seem to be all over the board.

 

[All4SU]

I don't know much, but I know one thing for certain: Las Vegas is smarter than I am.

 

[Meatball56]

Lines are determined by the gamblers and how they bet. Vegas establishes lines based on the perception of what spread they think will create a 50/50 split in bets (so they can earn their 10%). A lot of gamblers (especially a novice) will hammer the favorites and highly ranked teams regardless of the spread, so the action will drive those lines up and make them worse against the spread. Sometimes it's just about timing and what line you manage to lock in at.

 

[BuffOrange]

Lines are determined by the gamblers and how they bet. Vegas establishes lines based on the perception of what spread they think will create a 50/50 split in bets (so they can earn their 10%). A lot of gamblers (especially a novice) will hammer the favorites and highly ranked teams regardless of the spread, so the action will drive those lines up and make them worse against the spread. Sometimes it's just about timing and what line you manage to lock in at.

If this were true you could make $ pretty easily hammering the underdog in every game. [Hint: it's not].

 

[cliftonparksufan]

If this were true you could make $ pretty easily hammering the underdog in every game. [Hint: it's not].

I'm sure there are studies out there that shows which bets are the best for all sports. Seems like college basketball would be very difficult to win money but I am sure the same for every sport. I've been betting horse racing for 40 years and I think I would have more control there to win money than to bet on a college basketball game.

 

[upperdeck]

Two Words "money Line!!!"

 

[ORRange]

Play the unranked favorite at home vs. the ranked underdog. Like Cinc. and Vandy this week.

 

[690West]

Or just wait for certain "5 star super locks" that come strollin by every so often...

 

[Meatball56]

Or just wait for certain "5 star super locks" that come strollin by every so often...

Yeah you were late on the draw last time. Though SD State last night and Michigan tonight... I'm on a heater!

 

[690West]

Yeah you were late on the draw last time. Though SD State last night and Michigan tonight... I'm on a heater!

Well done!

 

[JohnCuse44]

Learn how to trade to stock market. Many more ways to make money and better odds too.

 

[ROCorange]

I think I remember reading on here during the 09-10 season that cuse was the best team in the country against the spread. Something called the "Sweat Index"...? Anyone else remember this?

 

[PoppyHart]

Yep, if you were disciplined and could hold off on the games with double digit spreads and just bet the money line, you'd probably have about 20-30x your initial investment over the last few years.

Two Words "money Line!!!"