Texas, Oklahoma reach out to the SEC

[Chip]

I'd guess that we'll see most of the Remnant 8 move to the Mountain West and American.

Agree with you both. The biggest scrambling that's probably going on right now is between AAC, MWC, Big 12(8).

Other than that, I'm sure there are a few calls happening to feel out the landscape, but there isn't much sense in doing anything quickly. Public expansion fever aside.

 

[RandomGuy]

I wouldn’t count on any of that happening, but if it does, sure all kinds of things will happen and none of it good for the sport nationally.

Obviously, I could be wrong, but thats where my money is. Makes perfect sense for UT/OU moves when basing it on those terms.

My only hope would be that legislation could save a P5 type arrangement(with parity), but I find it highly unlikely that a Michigan, Texas, Alabama, would want any portion of their revenue going to a private school like SU, BC, etc... I would absolutely bet against that. A P2 with the $$ schools (and $$ only), seems the eventual outcome. "Maybe" the SEC and B10 agree on having a few tomato cans in each division for geographical coverage, but I'm not sure they'll be up for that kind of charity.

 

[syrBossHogg]

FWIW, I peg the year I really started following college football in earnest as 1984. Forgive me, but I was a BC fan back then (grew up in Mass. and my next-door neighbor was the VP of Student Affairs there). This is the conference landscape that year:

1984 College Football Summary | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Check out the 1984 College Football Summary and more about College Football at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

Seven 'major' conferences (SEC, Pac-10, ACC, SWC, Big 8, Big Ten, WAC) all between 8 and 10 schools. Plus there were 21 indies, which were roughly aligned as northeast and southern quasi-conferences, since schools tended to schedule with others in their respective region.

I'm not in any way a guy who pines for the old days, I believe in progress and change. So its with that background that I say that today's landscape kinda sucks in comparison.

Right when NCAA vs Oklahoma case happened

 

[TheCusian]

Why would we, or anyone, HAVE to play them?

We wouldn’t have to, but if they have way more $, I don’t trust any school not to take it

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Just an opinion here, but I think that was the expansion thinking of 10 years ago, get into new states, it would bring more $.

Based on everything you read now, it's all about football content. Do UNC and UVA move the needle enough that when the pot is split 16 ways everyone gets at least as much money? Doesn't seem like it.

This is where VT has an advantage over UVA. I don't think anyone in NC adds anything. Nor does GT. Clemson, FSU, maybe VT, that's about it. Miami has probably been average too long at this point.

I think the SEC played chess and forced everyone else to play checkers.

FB content was always a factor (see Nebraska to the B1G).

Tier 1/2 TV rights will go up based on a great FB brand or shorter supply. Killing off the B12, P12, or ACC cuts the supply of P5 conferences. The SEC hit the double whammy getting FB brands and killing the B12. There are very few brands left outside of the B1G/SEC. Adding UVA/UNC would add Tier 1/2 value if the ACC dies off.

To a lessor extent inventory helps Tier 1/2 as well. ESPN rather be choosing the best game from 10 conference games rather than 5 conference games. There is less chance for a stinker. Also CFB is a regional sport. There is a reason why between two games at the same time, ABC will have the most regional game, while ESPN2 will have the other game. So a conference being in more regions helps. In both of these areas adding SU helps.

Tier 3 TV (conference networks) is about cable subscribers and advertising $. Adding a new market makes both go up. SU helps in both of these areas as well.

Tier 3 streaming is about subscriptions. Here the size and loyalty of your fanbase is important. In general there are more football fans than basketball fans so FB would be #1. For schools like KU, UNC, SU though having large loyal BBall fanbases helps. It closes the gap with FB.

 

[NKR1978]

Let's just hope Wildhack has enough friends at ESPN to get us a soft landing spot when this is all said and done.

 

[Hoo's That]

Right when NCAA vs Oklahoma case happened

Georgia sued the NCAA and won in the Supreme Court as well. The cases were combined and decided at the same time.

 

[baggerbob]

FB content was always a factor (see Nebraska to the B1G).

Tier 1/2 TV rights will go up based on a great FB brand or shorter supply. Killing off the B12, P12, or ACC cuts the supply of P5 conferences. The SEC hit the double whammy getting FB brands and killing the B12. There are very few brands left outside of the B1G/SEC. Adding UVA/UNC would add Tier 1/2 value if the ACC dies off.

To a lessor extent inventory helps Tier 1/2 as well. ESPN rather be choosing the best game from 10 conference games rather than 5 conference games. There is less chance for a stinker. Also CFB is a regional sport. There is a reason why between two games at the same time, ABC will have the most regional game, while ESPN2 will have the other game. So a conference being in more regions helps. In both of these areas adding SU helps.

Tier 3 TV (conference networks) is about cable subscribers and advertising $. Adding a new market makes both go up. SU helps in both of these areas as well.

Tier 3 streaming is about subscriptions. Here the size and loyalty of your fanbase is important. In general there are more football fans than basketball fans so FB would be #1. For schools like KU, UNC, SU though having large loyal BBall fanbases helps. It closes the gap with FB.

Let's be honest Syracuse hasn't been relevant in football since McNabb left. We had one or two good years. If ESPN kills off the ACC along with the Big 12. We will be left without a place to go.

 

[Alsacs]

Let's just hope Wildhack has enough friends at ESPN to get us a soft landing spot when this is all said and done.

We don’t know the endgame. That is the issue and Notre Dame basically controls it.
I don’t think we are in good shape because our football program is just so irrelevant nationally.

 

[NKR1978]

Let's be honest Syracuse hasn't been relevant in football since McNabb left. We had one or two good years. If ESPN kills off the ACC along with the Big 12. We will be left without a place to go.

Everyone think Duke and Kansas are guaranteed seats at the table. Exactly how relevant are they in football?

 

[elimunelson]

Let's be honest Syracuse hasn't been relevant in football since McNabb left. We had one or two good years. If ESPN kills off the ACC along with the Big 12. We will be left without a place to go.

 

[Alsacs]

Everyone think Duke and Kentucky are guaranteed seats at the table. Exactly how relevant are they in football?

Kentucky is safe because of geography and history.
Duke is ahead of us because UNC will likely protect them wherever they go.

Syracuse doesn’t have either.

 

[UnknownOrange]

Syracuse, Kentucky, Indiana, Duke, North Carolina, Villanova, and Kansas to create a dominant-basketball-but-not-so-much-football-conference

 

[DoctorBombay]

Did you even read my reply? I stated that it may not be in the best interest of UT & OU to go to the SEC if there is only an eight team playoff. It will be WAY harder for them to get there then staying in the BIG12. Doesn't mean they won't but it is far from over...but of course, I am not on the SEC board as you are.

It’s a done deal, KD. Do you really think they’d let it go this far if it wasn’t?
What we’re seeing now is just the requisite legalese “CYA Dance” by the SEC. I particularly liked the line; “While the SEC has not proactively sought out new members (LOL), we will pursue significant change when there is clear consensus among our members (like A&M), that such participation will further enrich…blah blah blah”.
The shamelessness is breathtaking. But then it always has been for the SEC. And it’s not just them, as any conference/schools would’ve probably done the same thing if it was possible. Money is about to kill the sport of cfb…and we are witnesses.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think some are highly overvaluing UNC's worth. They were in middle of the pack for ACC revenue amongst the public schools in 2019. In fact Virginia beat them.

 

[RandomGuy]

Just an opinion here, but I think that was the expansion thinking of 10 years ago, get into new states, it would bring more $.

Based on everything you read now, it's all about football content. Do UNC and UVA move the needle enough that when the pot is split 16 ways everyone gets at least as much money? Doesn't seem like it.

This is where VT has an advantage over UVA. I don't think anyone in NC adds anything. Nor does GT. Clemson, FSU, maybe VT, that's about it. Miami has probably been average too long at this point.

I think the SEC played chess and forced everyone else to play checkers.

UNC,FSU,MIA. Managed at least 1 game with 3 million viewers, and others with 2 million. (Without Clemson/ND) VT to a lesser extent.

Other than that, the ACC has nothing.

 

[NKR1978]

Kentucky is safe because of geography and history.
Duke is ahead of us because UNC will likely protect them wherever they go.

Syracuse doesn’t have either.

I meant Kansas. I have to edit that.

 

[OburgOrange]

Turkey Hill > Stewarts

NO!

 

[elimunelson]

Kentucky is safe because of geography and history.
Duke is ahead of us because UNC will likely protect them wherever they go.

Syracuse doesn’t have either.

If it's all about money and protecting yourself not sure why UNC is protecting Duke, a private school. There wouldn't be any political leverage play here. If anything UNC would be asked to protect NC State.

Of course it's all nonsense because the scenarios you are laying out are the nuclear doomsday ones that probably cascade if 15 things happen before hand.

 

[richmondcuse03]

Have the arm chair legal experts on GOR admitted they were wrong yet? Statement says schools want to leave following expiration of GOR in 2025. That seems to be a big point that is helpful to ACC no?

 

[CuseCactus]

The SEC footprint is reveling in all of this. It’s almost like a big FU to the North - let them cling to their football. Maybe the whole footprint should secede. I’d be totally fine with that.

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

its the amount of time of the games... it used to be 3 hours then 330 and now 4 not including getting from your seat to your car and traffic

This is a not small detail. We worry so much about speeding up baseball but this is a problem. Too many penalties, too many stoppages, letting TV dictate game flow (red jacket guy from hell)...

 

[Whitey23]

Have the arm chair legal experts on GOR admitted they were wrong yet? Statement says schools want to leave following expiration of GOR in 2025. That seems to be a big point that is helpful to ACC no?

They're going to have the lawyers start negotiating an earlier exit now.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

For the ACC in particular, there are multiple questions. Is there a rush to add right now? As one source told me, "It begins and ends with Notre Dame." ND is not changing its mind right now. So what does that mean? Any addition needs to bring $ value. West Virginia came out with all the reasons it wants in.

This is not a surprise. In 2011, after Pitt and Syracuse left for the ACC and it appeared the Big East was on the verge of falling apart, then-AD Oliver Luck told me he and then-president Jim Clements devised a plan. Clements would work ACC prez for information on realignment; Luck would work ADs They thought the ACC would be the most logical spot to land, considering its location and all the former Big East schools in the conference.

They didn't stop there - they also made calls to the SEC and Big 12. When it became clear the Big 12 had reciprocal interest, they went all in, beating out Louisville for what they believed was their life raft out to safety. But now here we are again and West Virginia is looking for the stability it sought a decade ago.

Will the ACC listen this time? WVU has tremendous tradition. (Clements is now at Clemson). But back to the financial value. Does WVU move the needle? Not on its own. Now for the second part in all of this: The ACC protecting its own teams.

Realignment this time is different than it was a decade ago. With all ACC schools tied in to a grant of rights through 2036, the league feels confident it will not get poached, at least right away. The Pac-12, Big 12 and Big Ten do not have a GOR that goes that long.

But everything is negotiable, right? If this sets off a chain reaction like 2011, where all schools are looking for escape routes to stability and financial gold, then GOR may not matter. The bottom line is there are too many unknowns to accurately predict how this will play out.

Super conferences, 32-team leagues, conference partnerships - nothing should be off the table for discussion. When Phillips met with his coaches last week, he described all the recent changes as an opportunity to "reimagine college football"

He was not even referring to realignment, but it fits. Those words are more appropriate than ever, as administrators work to navigate where they stand in a rapidly changing landscape that may or may not all end up under the NCAA umbrella.

 

[Toga]

The end all will be 2 power conference's, about 20 teams each. Can't see anyplace for anyone from the east except PSU and Pitt in that scenario.

If so, I ain't watching that sh it.