The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[STEVEHOLT]

This is the year where some kind of eye test should matter.

Committee doesn’t watch enough games for the eye test to have legitimacy

 

[Cusefan0307]

I’m going to say something sacrilegious here...

What’s so great about the Big Ten ? They’ve got better top teams than the Acc but they got a soft underbelly

Michigan, Illinois and Iowa have all been beat by that underbelly so therefore those mediocre teams must be good.

 

[walsh2012]

boise has lost their last 5 games you're insane if you think they're in

 

[richmondcuse03]

Committee doesn’t watch enough games for the eye test to have legitimacy

I know but I wish they did...if they can’t swap them out with people who do.

 

[Newhouser]

I’m going to say something sacrilegious here...

What’s so great about the Big Ten ? They’ve got better top teams than the Acc but they got a soft underbelly

I have been thinking about the same thing - caught some of Minnesota vs Northwestern and Dr. Naismith nearly rose from the dead to halt the action.

 

[Newhouser]

I think this year is going to be brand driven and since they have lost 2 of the sports biggest brands in Kentucky and Duke, I think our brand helps immensely.

 

[pearl31]

Packer and Durham just said Syracuse is in.

well damm it's official then

 

[690West]

Do we want utah state or Colorado st. Tonight? My head is spinning. Maybe it’s moot who wins

 

[SU94]

Committee doesn’t watch enough games for the eye test to have legitimacy

My paranoid SU DNA has me wondering if JAB's (cranky, unlikeable, pissy) disposition this year will allow for the Selection Committee, which is made up of 10 HUMANS, to look at each other and say, "let's turn the screws on this SOB ... first team OUT!" Athletic Directors crave control and this would likely earn them a few back slaps from colleagues in the coming months.

There is no one in the sport who did not read about thoughts on the Jalen Johnson and Matt Gutierrez. Then the Bryant game too, although that was so long ago, I doubt many outside of CNY remember. Both found their way to the top line on ESPN's headlines.

I'd love to be wrong.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

My paranoid SU DNA has me wondering if JAB's (cranky, unlikeable, pissy) disposition this year will allow for the Selection Committee, which is made up of 10 HUMANS, to look at each other and say, "let's turn the screws on this SOB ... first team OUT!" Athletic Directors crave control and this would likely earn them a few back slaps from colleagues in the coming months.

There is no one in the sport who did not read about thoughts on the Jalen Johnson and Matt Gutierrez. Then the Bryant game too, although that was so long ago, I doubt many outside of CNY remember. Both found their way to the top line on ESPN's headlines.

I'd love to be wrong.

I’m to the point we are either solidly in ..no play in game .. or were completely out

 

[jdubs30]

My paranoid SU DNA has me wondering if JAB's (cranky, unlikeable, pissy) disposition this year will allow for the Selection Committee, which is made up of 10 HUMANS, to look at each other and say, "let's turn the screws on this SOB ... first team OUT!" Athletic Directors crave control and this would likely earn them a few back slaps from colleagues in the coming months.

There is no one in the sport who did not read about thoughts on the Jalen Johnson and Matt Gutierrez. Then the Bryant game too, although that was so long ago, I doubt many outside of CNY remember. Both found their way to the top line on ESPN's headlines.

I'd love to be wrong.

If anything the fact that there’s no Duke, UK, etc helps us. This all about making money - the committe would rather have a brand like Syracuse in than 3 MWC teams.

the committee is less worried about “screwing over Boeheim” than they are getting the most eyeballs possible on the tournament - and Colorado State doesn’t bring that

 

[Cuseball]

Do we want utah state or Colorado st. Tonight? My head is spinning. Maybe it’s moot who wins

I think winner may get in but Utah State resume is a little weaker. We can survive the Mountain West being a two bid league. Need SD State to win the other semi.

Really important that Ole Miss loses to LSU today. They probably need to win another but we would like them gone.

Houston needs to win the American and not let a mediocre tram like Wichita State, Memphis or SMU steal a bid

Cuse

 

[sutomcat]

Do we want utah state or Colorado st. Tonight? My head is spinning. Maybe it’s moot who wins

I think Colorado State has the better resume. They are in the tournament on most brackets. Utah State is not, but they are just off.

The best case is probably a Colorado State win. That should effectively eliminate Utah State, one of the teams most likely to jump us and take our bid.

If Utah State wins, Colorado moves from 11 seed range to 12 or maybe even out. Utah State would also be in 12 seed range. A loss by Utah State to San Diego State in the final could, best case, result in Colorado State and Utah State getting shunned.

But the Mountain West has been a good league. They had 4 teams in or really close on the bubble (Boise State being the fourth). If Utah State won and lost to San Diego State in the NW final, this could backfire and set things up so Colorado State, Utah State and San Diego State all make the tournament. Too dangerous for me.

I would rather see Colorado State and San Diego State in the MW finals, with both likely in the NCAA tournament.

 

[Orangemen]

Do we want utah state or Colorado st. Tonight? My head is spinning. Maybe it’s moot who wins

Based on bracket matrix and lunardi, Utah state is below us in the pecking order. So I guess that means we want Col St to win.

 

[orangemass]

well damm it's official then

Reved up and ready to roll...

 

[orangemass]

Are there any bid snatchers left? I just like to say it

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

why on earth would you want to face a team whose coach knows our zone like the back of his hand?

lol

 

[walsh2012]

I think this year is going to be brand driven and since they have lost 2 of the sports biggest brands in Kentucky and Duke, I think our brand helps immensely.

I agree. We also travel well which I think will matter to the committee too

 

[Consigliere]

Committee doesn’t watch enough games for the eye test to have legitimacy

Agree during most of the year, but have to think they are watching the bubble teams now if they have any sense of responsibility to their jobs.

 

[walsh2012]

Are there any bid snatchers left? I just like to say it

Georgetown

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I agree. We also travel well which I think will matter to the committee too

Uh...

 

[Tom W.]

As much as I thought I was going to stay out of most of the bubble talk this year, it's just too much fun! Put together a metrics chart over on TCW Bracketology to see where we stand. It is organized based on the bracket matrix rankings and current metrics.

What immediately stands out- our metrics and advanced metrics are good and getting better. Our Q1 wins at 1-7 and Road/Neutral record of 3-8 are not so good. Nine top-100 wins is tied for the most among bubble teams. So, definitely some things going for us, but also some significant drawbacks. Check out full chart and blog link below:

 

[orange79]

Committee doesn’t watch enough games for the eye test to have legitimacy

And you know this...how?

 

[cliftonparksufan]

well damm it's official then

ITS BO TIME!!

 

[STEVEHOLT]

As much as I thought I was going to stay out of most of the bubble talk this year, it's just too much fun! Put together a metrics chart over on TCW Bracketology to see where we stand. It is organized based on the bracket matrix rankings and current metrics.

What immediately stands out- our metrics and advanced metrics are good and getting better. Our Q1 wins at 1-7 and Road/Neutral record of 3-8 are not so good. Nine top-100 wins is tied for the most among bubble teams. So, definitely some things going for us, but also some significant drawbacks. Check out full chart and blog link below:

View attachment 197813

9-9 vs top 100 is pretty dang solid