The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version | Page 57 | Syracusefan.com

The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

well they to have the bracket done already, probably several variations too.
Right...but to just nonchalantly declare that we’re in is madness. I love the blind optimism. But there are so many people that think they’re fake reporters. No bracket is final.
 
Right...but to just nonchalantly declare that we’re in is madness. I love the blind optimism. But there are so many people that think they’re fake reporters. No bracket is final.
it wouldnt surprise me though that in reality we are above Lou or Witchita and some others and thus the 11 line and safe no matter what the 3-4 bid stealers do..
 
Another example of just how much better our resume’ is and just how “safe” we should be especially looking at the historical comparisons. And yes I know every season is different and historical comparisons don’t really matter, but it is interesting to see.
I’m more worried about avoiding a play-in game than I am about making the field right now.
 
it wouldnt surprise me though that in reality we are above Lou or Witchita and some others and thus the 11 line and safe no matter what the 3-4 bid stealers do..
Definitely possible and hopefully accurate! Point I was getting at was this guy passing along news that we’re in like he knows something. Not from Donna Ditota, not Mike Waters, but guy on Facebook
 
My thoughts...

The Ole Miss loss to LSU was the most important result for us. If they won the SEC conference, they would have jumped us for sure and maybe knocked us out.

The Utah State win is a concern. They were already in on some brackets and I suspect they are very close to us. If they lose to San Diego State, even though that would not be a bad loss, i think we will surely end up ahead of them. But if they win, yes, they could jump ahead of us. On the flip side, it is conceivable we could pass Colorado State now and that might well happen.

Georgetown is a concern. Creighton is getting in no matter what, so if the Hoyas win, someone in the field today loses their spot. Oregon State is, I think, the other school that we have to be worried about. Same situation. Ironic that 2 schools with prominent SU alums on the coaching staff could play big roles in eliminating Syracuse from the tournament.

Let’s focus now on the MAC tournament. 1 seed Toledo was quietly upset yesterday. I haven’t seen them seeded higher than 13, can’t imagine they have a shot at an at large bid, so that result is okay for us. It is actually good for us, in that Buffalo beat Akron, and only needs to play 5 seed Ohio now to win the MAC.

Our nuclear winter scenario is that

1) Utah State upsets San Diego State
2) Georgetown upsets Creighton
3) Oregon State upsets Oregon

We are in real danger if 3 teams penciled in the field today lose their spots this weekend. But even if that happens, we would have a win over the Big East champion and a win over the MAC champion. Those OOC wins are a big differentiator for us, I think, and would get us in over someone like Colorado State. But it would bring us perilously close to being dropped from the field.

Gotta root for MCW’s brother to get Creighton a win over our favorite old rival from the BE. Go San Diego State. I think Colorado beat USC so we want them to take out Oregon State.

Fun to have a stake in all those great games being played this weekend, Grateful college basketball is back and we are in the mix for a bid.

Lastly, as you watch the Colorado-Oregon State game, here is a nice article on the Thompson family to review. Ethan is a very good player (and like his dad, apparently a great person and student). Stevie Jr graduated last season and now Ethan is a senior. This is the end of the line for them.

mostly agree but add to your "nuclear" scenario-
AAC: Memphis beating Houston today, Cinci beating Wichita today, Cinci over Memphis in final tomorrow - in that scenario it's conceivable ALL FOUR of those teams get in.

really really really need Houston to beat Memphis today - this game just became as big as any bubble-related game for us this year
 
I'm just not quite sold. I mean look at their line here. Is there anything impressive compared to other bubble squads? Two top-100 wins? Ten of their fourteen wins are Q3/Q4. A 73 average among the advanced metrics. It just doesn't seem like a lock, although I do think they are currently in. The SOR is best among bubble teams at 32. But, a loss to NET 119 Cincy and I think they would be sweating.

View attachment 197884
Wow. No team on the bubble is close to our average. Utah St is the closest and they're almost 5 points behind us. I'm definitely a Colorado and Houston fan today. Like Pearl said we need Cincinnati to not win their tourney.
 
Got to root for Houston to beat Memphis, Creighton to beat Georgetown, and Colorado to beat Oregon State. Results thus far have been favorable to us. Need some more help today.
 
We made the sweet 16 in 2018.
Our conference record was 8-10.
That was the year I was shocked we made it in. If we hadn't been selected that year, I was okay with it.
 
That was the year I was shocked we made it in. If we hadn't been selected that year, I was okay with it.
Conference records aren’t fair unless they’re true round robins. If they aren’t true round robins in the committee has to look at the schedules in depth to see if a team played the stronger teams on the road or at home conference strength of schedule matters. Unless it’s a true round robin then you play everyone at home and on the road and the records tell you Or which teams you played two times and which teams he played one time.
 
Got to root for Houston to beat Memphis, Creighton to beat Georgetown, and Colorado to beat Oregon State. Results thus far have been favorable to us. Need some more help today.
I hear ya, but humor me, how could we be out if all three of those games above go the wrong way? I believe you just need it spelled out
 
Creighton and Colorado are 9 point favorites.
I could see one of them losing but odds suggest neither will.
 
I hear ya, but humor me, how could we be out if all three of those games above go the wrong way? I believe you just need it spelled out
No one knows what the selection committee is thinking. Who knows were we really stand? If Georgetown, Memphis, or OSU win, that knocks a team on the bubble out of the tournament because the team they beat, whether it be Colorado, Houston, or Creighton, are already in.
 
My Top 5 wishes right now...

1. We get in (obviously) but avoid the PIG
2. Kadary gets healthy enough to be more like himself - we need him
3. Buddy doesn't get cold with all this time off
4. Boeheim decides to use the bench sooner in the NCAA tourney (probably just a dream)
5. We avoid COVID
 
Lunardi’s latest has SU as the 43rd overall team.

BE3FBCED-A10C-4F73-8601-2F6E60A1CBF1.jpeg
 
I go thru this bubble curve and I make us an 8 right now. still better than UNC/Clem/VT in the ACC at this point. ahead of SB/UCLA/rutgers too
 
I go thru this bubble curve and I make us an 8 right now. still better than UNC/Clem/VT in the ACC at this point. ahead of SB/UCLA/rutgers too
Rutgers beat us and have better wins they are ahead of us.
Clemson beat Alabama and Purdue and finished close to even with us:
Carolina has a better resume as well.

We should be in without first four though.
 
It would be cool if Colgate was in the same 4 team first weekend bracket as us and potentially we could play them second round.
 

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