The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[sam]

Are we so sure that Wichita State is in if they lose today? I watched them yesterday and they are awful!

 

[MikeSU02]

Palm has moved us up to the 11 seed playing Colorado as the 6 seed.

we would win that game.

 

[Orangezoo]

Morning everyone- I posted the newest bubble metrics over on TCW Bracketology - Picture below. As most of you are saying, it is starting to feel a lot more comfortable. The bubble is just not very strong.

Obviously, we love the continuing improvement of the Cuse metric ranks, and the 9 top-100 wins ( I know a lot of people ignore that stat, but since I have been really looking at the bubble the last few years, it seems to correlate pretty well with who gets in and who does not). Still have the glaring 1-7 Q1, but no one on the bubble is too terribly impressive there, and our overall 16-9 record is pretty decent.

I also wonder what the usually pretty important NCSOS will mean this year with all of the cancelled games and no fans at games. For instance, a 305 ranking from Drake would normally seem pretty damning, but who knows this year. Same for road/neutral record. It just seems less important than normal, but the committee may see it differently.

Anyways metrics are below, and looking forward to watching all the games on the rooting guide from jdubs30 quoted above.

View attachment 197881

I want Cincy out. Wichita is in, let things roll as Shockers vs Houston and not sweat a miracle from Cincy. Cincy winning it all would be a problem.

 

[CousCuse]

Why not just let in all the teams from the 6 major basketball conferences that are .500 or better in league and overall play? That's 42 teams this year. That would leave 26 for smaller conferences autobids and the rest for at large.

 

[Cuse1055]

Guy over at SI.com has us as first team out. Just have to laugh at what guys like this are looking at/thinking compared to teams like St. Louis and Drake.

 

[Orangezoo]

Why not just let in all the teams from the 6 major basketball conferences that are .500 or better in league and overall play? That's 42 teams this year. That would leave 26 for smaller conferences autobids and the rest for at large.

That's 26 spots for 25 conferences.

 

[Orangezoo]

Guy over at SI.com has us as first team out. Just have to laugh at what guys like this are looking at/thinking compared to teams like St. Louis and Drake.

It's comical. Especially the Louisville being a bye and Colorado St too.

 

[upperdeck]

not sure how Lou is ahead of us on any ones list.. nothing they have done points to it and every computer system has us pretty fair ahead of them.

 

[upperdeck]

can Joe explain why after not playing for 2 days suddenly SU jumps Drake in his own system? did G-town winning help us in his eyes

 

[Orangezoo]

not sure how Lou is ahead of us on any ones list.. nothing they have done points to it and every computer system has us pretty fair ahead of them.

We have better computer numbers across the board (minus Q1 wins) than essentially every one of the bubble teams. We also have a weaker road record but all but 1 of our road losses is Q1.

 

[Tom W.]

Are we so sure that Wichita State is in if they lose today? I watched them yesterday and they are awful!

I want Cincy out. Wichita is in, let things roll as Shockers vs Houston and not sweat a miracle from Cincy. Cincy winning it all would be a problem.

I'm just not quite sold. I mean look at their line here. Is there anything impressive compared to other bubble squads? Two top-100 wins? Ten of their fourteen wins are Q3/Q4. A 73 average among the advanced metrics. It just doesn't seem like a lock, although I do think they are currently in. The SOR is best among bubble teams at 32. But, a loss to NET 119 Cincy and I think they would be sweating.

 

[Orangezoo]

can Joe explain why after not playing for 2 days suddenly SU jumps Drake in his own system? did G-town winning help us in his eyes

He is lazy. Numbers have been looking better for us in just past 3 days so he just uses that.

 

[690West]

Boeheim to be on ESPNU radio on SiriusXM with Dan Dakich, not sure of time, he just teased it

10:00

 

[upperdeck]

He is lazy. Numbers have been looking better for us in just past 3 days so he just uses that.

much like why he doesnt update his brackets in any timely fashion on the web site.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Yeah the ole miss result was great, same with Xavier a couple days ago. But now it’s all about those teams losing. Oregon st is on quite a run.

 

[sutomcat]

I agree with most of what you said but Colorado states profile was better than Utah State !

This Colorado state loses potentially notches them below us and I would rather battle with Utah St. résumé after last nights win then Colorado st. In that scenario could have both those teams below Syracuse in the end! I did not want Colorado State to win!

Palm has both in. Lunardi has Colorado State as the last team out.

I would trust Palm a lot more than Joey. Never trust a man with a bad toupee. Or a good one for that matter.

It looks like we are safety above both and this is immaterial to us. Though either could be a play in opponent for us.

Would people prefer to play in the play in game or just start against what looks like a 6 or a 5 seed?

 

[STEVEHOLT]

If there’s something that is going to knock us out , it’s not the quad one wins issue...

It’s the neutral / road record .

One could argue that since the games are all neutral... when picking amongst similar teams, all flawed mind you... that neutral / road record is likely more predictive of tournament success than your overall performance..

 

[Briancuse]

The Nova system is predicated on elite lead guard play. That guy is done for the season. They are wounded heading into March this season.

Nova is shot. I love jay but if he got to the 2nd weekend it would be a miracle and I think they go down rd 1.

 

[Orangezoo]

If there’s something that is going to knock us out , it’s not the quad one wins issue...

It’s the neutral / road record .

One could argue that since the games are all neutral... when picking amongst similar teams, all flawed mind you... that neutral / road record is likely more predictive of tournament success than your overall performance..

The thing is our road losses- are all Q1 but 1. So it's a little deceiving too.

 

[kcsu]

Palm has both in. Lunardi has Colorado State as the last team out.

I would trust Palm a lot more than Joey. Never trust a man with a bad toupee. Or a good one for that matter.

It looks like we are safety above both and this is immaterial to us. Though either could be a play in opponent for us.

Would people prefer to play in the play in game or just start against what looks like a 6 or a 5 seed?

Less games especially with covid.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

we would win that game.

They have one of those fattish / agile centers (think danya Abrams ) that historically causes us problems

 

[Orangemen]

Guy over at SI.com has us as first team out. Just have to laugh at what guys like this are looking at/thinking compared to teams like St. Louis and Drake.

It seems like every year we get consensus from the bracketologists, then the real bracket comes out and there are selections that make no sense based on what the consensus has been pointing to.

The last 12 teams on the board
(last 4 byes, 4 play ins, and first 4 out), are generally the same, but one we all expect to be out gets a bye, one we expect to get a bye is out, etc.

There will definitely be one or two teams who end up ahead of us that we will all think is crazy. There will be a team or two left out that we will all think makes no sense.

Our odds are looking pretty good right now, but the last 12 can be a snow globe sometimes.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

The thing is our road losses- are all Q1 but 1. So it's a little deceiving too.

But we just didn’t win them .. losing to good teams doesnt differentiate good from bad teams.. because you end up with the same result ..an L

 

[nycfan]

Palm has both in. Lunardi has Colorado State as the last team out.

I would trust Palm a lot more than Joey. Never trust a man with a bad toupee. Or a good one for that matter.

It looks like we are safety above both and this is immaterial to us. Though either could be a play in opponent for us.

Would people prefer to play in the play in game or just start against what looks like a 6 or a 5 seed?

Is this a trick question? I would prefer a 6-game path for the Title over a 7-game path.

 

[Orangezoo]

But we just didn’t win them .. losing to good teams doesnt differentiate good from bad teams.. because you end up with the same result ..an L

Yes but it's all part of why our metrics are so much better. Not looking at one thing and when it sticks out you see why. If we had 3 Q2 road losses we would be sitting in the 60s for Net.