The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[JDemo]

How exactly is Duke ahead of us





How exactly is Duke ahead of us on the Bubble ? That does not make any sense to me. Is it their 1 point win over Virginia. They are barely over .500

They did beat us which does not help.

 

[nycfan]

How exactly is Duke ahead of us





How exactly is Duke ahead of us on the Bubble ? That does not make any sense to me. Is it their 1 point win over Virginia. They are barely over .500

Never said they were. My post was just a simple question -- if we win Wed and lose a close game Thurs (which would be against either FSU or UVA), could it still be as high as 50/50 that we get in or is that wishful thinking? (since many people say we need 2 wins).

 

[jdubs30]

Never said they were. My post was just a simple question -- if we win Wed and lose a close game Thurs (which would be against either FSU or UVA), could it still be as high as 50/50 that we get in or is that wishful thinking? (since many people say we need 2 wins).

In your scenario I’d say 50/50 is fair but optimistic.. we’d need a lot to go our way in other conferences

 

[Eric15]

In very rough terms based on absolutely nothing scientific, I feel like...
0 ACC wins = 0% chance
1 ACC win = 25%
2 ACC wins = 50%
3 ACC wins = 75%
4 ACC wins = 100%

 

[721Comstock]

In very rough terms based on absolutely nothing scientific, I feel like...
0 ACC wins = 0% chance
1 ACC win = 25%
2 ACC wins = 50%
3 ACC wins = 75%
4 ACC wins = 100%

Nah.

ALL of those odds (sans the 100%) are higher in reality than your expectations.

It’s probably more like (total ACCT wins):
0 = 25%
1 = 60%
2 = 90%
3 = 99%
4 = 100%

That 2nd ACCT win would be a Quad 1 vs a ranked team on a neutral floor.
Not a mortal lock we’re in, but very strong odds.

 

[nycfan]

In very rough terms based on absolutely nothing scientific, I feel like...
0 ACC wins = 0% chance
1 ACC win = 25%
2 ACC wins = 50%
3 ACC wins = 75%
4 ACC wins = 100%

No offense Eric (good name btw), but I don't agree with you as I think you are being too pessimistic. A win against FSU on Thurs would carry a lot of weight and although we might not be in as I suggested, the 50% is too low with 2 wins (not to mention, a win on Wed would come against a respectable team that is also near the bubble; thus, FSU would make it 4 good to great wins in a row).

 

[jdubs30]

In very rough terms based on absolutely nothing scientific, I feel like...
0 ACC wins = 0% chance
1 ACC win = 25%
2 ACC wins = 50%
3 ACC wins = 75%
4 ACC wins = 100%

if we win 2 ACCT games and NC State stays a Q1 win, we’d have 3 Q1 wins ... that would almost definitely put us in

 

[syrBossHogg]

No offense Eric (good name btw), but I don't agree with you as I think you are being too pessimistic. A win against FSU on Thurs would carry a lot of weight and although we might not be in as I suggested, the 50% is too low with 2 wins (not to mention, a win on Wed would come against a respectable team that is also near the bubble; thus, FSU would make it 4 good to great wins in a row).

I agree with you but Eric did say in very rough terms

 

[syrBossHogg]

Mich St down big and Richmond lost. Another good night although Mich St's resume is still a lot better than ours

 

[orange79]

Mich St down big and Richmond lost. Another good night although Mich St's resume is still a lot better than ours

4-8 Q1, while we're 1-6. We're a tad better Q2 (4-1 vs. 4-2). MSU is 2-0 Q3 while we're 7-1.

But SU is 21 places higher than MSU (51 vs. 72).

 

[20plus]

In very rough terms based on absolutely nothing scientific, I feel like...
0 ACC wins = 0% chance
1 ACC win = 25%
2 ACC wins = 50%
3 ACC wins = 75%
4 ACC wins = 100%

Absolutely not if we win two games ,I’d put it at 75 to 85

 

[OmahaCuse]

MSU could end up 8-12 in conference they dont deserve a bid.

 

[Orangezoo]

I think the Big East gets cut down to 3 bids. No Xavier or Seton Hall and I don't think it's that close.

 

[littlereg]

sometimes people take a quality win or two wayyyyy to far. Cool Michigan state got two top 5 wins last week. But what else have they done? Oh yeah only won 6 other games in conference and are sitting right on the border of .500. People will argue back “they won at Duke” wow cool so did Notre Dame. people love to focus on one in these arguments and never the entire scope. A resume and teams chances in the tournament should always be the entire picture.

 

[20plus]

**Umass vs St Louis
**Northern Iowa vs Drake
**Dayton vs VCU
Georgia Tech @ **Wake Forest
Colorado State @ **Nevada
**Duquesne vs St Bonaventure
**Charlotte vs Marshall
**Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky
**Ball State vs Toledo

 

[20plus]

I debated about Loyola Chicago VS Southern Illinois! If they lose the Saluki’s Loyola Chicago would be something to look at.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We are slowly showing up in more brackets now on the matrix. Just 5 teams ahead of us for at large and that was before last night's results.

 

[Sherman20]

Would have been the perfect year to add another 16 play-in games.
Play all 20 teams on Play-in Tuesday. They keep saying last 8 out. Just add 16 more teams and line them up with the 3-4 seeds. So simple. Let people be happy.

Then get a Wednesday recovery day

I agree. I’m surprised they didn’t expand the tournament this season due to Covid. I’ve long been opposed to tourney expansion because I didn’t want to dilute the product. But I’ve now changed my mind on this. There’s just so much parity and talent dispersal throughout the game and with players leaving early for pro careers, teams are closer than ever these days. Those last 8-10 teams and their resumes are always so closely aligned and hard to choose from, and this year it seems there are even more in there. The Bonnies should make it and they’re way down the line. I want to see the major conferences get bids and the mid majors as well. I just think it’s high time we expand the tourney and allowed more teams into the big dance. I don’t know what the number is, but this would be the year to start experimenting.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

good write up from Jerry Palm on today's games of interest

Bracketology Bubble Watch: Michigan State falls short of getting signature victory vs. Michigan

The Spartans get another shot at the Wolverines and a big win which would solidify its spot in the NCAA Tournament

www.cbssports.com

 

[Knicks411]

if we win 2 ACCT games and NC State stays a Q1 win, we’d have 3 Q1 wins ... that would almost definitely put us in

It's a bit of a moving target, but wouldn't it be the be 2 Q1 wins? Right now we have NC State (they're #64, so they probably stay top 75). The second ACCT win, against either FSU or UVA, is for sure a Q1. But the first ACC game probably won't be? Duek is 58 right now. State won't be a Q1 on a neutral. Am I missing an obvious one?

 

[Alsacs]

It's a bit of a moving target, but wouldn't it be the be 2 Q1 wins? Right now we have NC State (they're #64, so they probably stay top 75). The second ACCT win, against either FSU or UVA, is for sure a Q1. But the first ACC game probably won't be? Duek is 58 right now. State won't be a Q1 on a neutral. Am I missing an obvious one?

Quad one wins

It’s 1-30 at home wins.
31-50 at neutral site
51-75 on the road.

So only our road win would be a quad 1 win. It’s a solid win at home to be fairS

 

[DCUNITED13]

**Umass vs St Louis
**Northern Iowa vs Drake
**Dayton vs VCU
Georgia Tech @ **Wake Forest
Colorado State @ **Nevada
**Duquesne vs St Bonaventure
**Charlotte vs Marshall
**Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky
**Ball State vs Toledo

Wow, 9 Team Parley Bet. Wonder what that pay out if we bid on what SU needs. LOL Money Line only.

 

[upperdeck]

Net rankings are just another dumb metric.. SBU if we played them we would be pissed it we lost but thats a quad 1 win same for Colgate or LIC or Wisc.

And why not change home and away this yr when so many games crowd made no difference in so many games..

Worst part is we didnt get to play many of those top 75 games on the road because so many teams struggled..

At the beginning of the yr who thought MSU would not be a quad 1 win..

 

[sutomcat]

MSU suffered a devastating loss to Michigan and will get pounded by them again to end their season. They have no business being in the conversation and the next loss to UM should shut up anyone who thinks otherwise.

I feel bad for Drake. They have lost their 2 best players to injury now. They are unlikely to win their tournament and I can’t see them getting an at large bid either.

Xavier finished their season with a game at Marquette. Xavier missed 7 out of 8 games in the middle of the season due to COVID and has been a bad team since. Just lost to PC and Georgetown. They are likely ot lose to Marquette as well.

If Duke loses to UNC, they should be dead to everyone as well.

Lots of promising things happening to teams we are competing with for bids. If results keep happening in our favor, as expected, I like our chances to get a bid assuming we get one more win.

That would be a really nice achievement for this team for this season.

 

[Alsacs]

MSU suffered a devastating loss to Michigan and will get pounded by them again to end their season. They have no business being in the conversation and the next loss to UM should shut up anyone who thinks otherwise.

I feel bad for Drake. They have lost their 2 best players to injury now. They are unlikely to win their tournament and I can’t see them getting an at large bid either.

Xavier finished their season with a game at Marquette. Xavier missed 7 out of 8 games in the middle of the season due to COVID and has been a bad team since. Just lost to PC and Georgetown. They are likely ot lose to Marquette as well.

If Duke loses to UNC, they should be dead to everyone as well.

Lots of promising things happening to teams we are competing with for bids. If results keep happening in our favor, as expected, I like our chances to get a bid assuming we get one more win.

That would be a really nice achievement for this team for this season.

Michigan State has 3 better wins than our best win.
@ Duke, Illinois, Ohio State are better than anything we have.

How you say they have no business being in the conservation when our best 3 wins are Virginia Tech, Clemson and @ NC State.
If we played Michigan State’s schedule i don’t think we are even at .500.

The Big Ten is a lot better than the ACC this season.
It’s not even close.