The dream's still alive

[djorange1989]

You are completely barking up the wrong tree championing this position, IMO.

We absolutely need to win 2 more, and even then might need to do some additional work in the ACCT.

Anything less is treading dangerous ground.

Yep. 2 Quad one wins are not that impressive, I think we need 2 more of them

 

[Cusefan0307]

I agree with all of that. Yet somehow the ACC has four teams in the rpi top ten which only confirms my belief that that system is completely useless.

Maybe, but the conference is second in KenPom rating overall as well.

 

[MadNY3]

We pissed away a bunch of games. Throw in Wake on the road and Georgia Tech too. I think we need two more +1 in the ACC Tournament.

Nothing anyone can do about that now.

This team is a grinding Frankenstein. We know what it isn’t, so I think we need to (frustrating as it is) enjoy this team for what it is.

And hope we don’t have a bonkers offseason.

 

[bpo57]

Maybe, but the conference is second in KenPom rating overall as well.

That's why I love the tourney. It will all be settled on the court. Where were they ranked with kenpom going into last year's tourney? I honestly don't recall.

 

[Dave85]

We need to score more on offense. And play better on defense.

 

[MikeDamone]

"Have to find a way to win at least two of them" - not necessarily

Today's w and @ L'vlle are more than "decent" - both Q1 wins

So you think 8-10 or worse and we are still in good shape? No way

 

[Dave85]

And hope we don’t have a bonkers offseason.

It's not like Syracuse basketball is known for its never ending drama...uh...scratch that.

 

[Chip]

Our ACC schedule was incredibly forgiving this year. BC, Pitt and Wake x2.

Should have been spotted 6-0 to start the season.

And the league is marginal this year compared to other years.

That's true, and dropping Wake and GT is probably going to haunt us (along with ND, Bonnies, NC State).

But there's one clear cut team at the top, and we had to play them twice too.

There's a lot of micro issues for us fans to yap about, but if JB gets this particular team into the tourney, he should be very proud. It would be one of his best coaching seasons.

 

[iommi]

So you think 8-10 or worse and we are still in good shape? No way

Who thinks that?! I have someone on ignore who has suddenly and inexplicably become belligerent to me in recent weeks. 8-10 and we'd be in a very dicey position.

 

[MSOrange]

That's true, and dropping Wake and GT is probably going to haunt us (along with ND, Bonnies, NC State).

But there's one clear cut team at the top, and we had to play them twice too.

There's a lot of micro issues for us fans to yap about, but if JB gets this particular team into the tourney, he should be very proud. It would be one of his best coaching seasons.

The ND and Ga Tech games are the ones that keep me up at night. All we had to do was play mediocre and not flat out awful and those are wins.

 

[iommi]

Nothing anyone can do about that now.

This team is a grinding Frankenstein. We know what it isn’t, so I think we need to (frustrating as it is) enjoy this team for what it is.

And hope we don’t have a bonkers offseason.

I'm sure our offseason will be eventful. They always are. That said, I'm expecting all of our recruits to be on campus early and that will be a huge plus. The other good thing is we have no helicopter moms who'll take their kids off the grid.

 

[jncuse]

I'll add that anyone who thinks we can finish 8-10 and not go on a run in the ACC Tournament is without a clue.

Depends how you define a run. If it’s two wins we are likely to get in.

At 8-10, the first ACC game is likely a nuisance game that adds no value. But assuming that second win is against a tourney team then we make up for not going 9-9.

At 8-10, with only one tourney win, it’s certaonly not zero chance, buts it’s not close to 50% based on how the bubble is currently trending.

 

[iommi]

Depends how you define a run. If it’s two wins we are likely to get in.

At 8-10, the first ACC game is likely a nuisance game that adds no value. But assuming that second win is against a tourney team then we make up for not going 9-9.

At 8-10, with only one tourney win, it’s certaonly not zero chance, buts it’s not close to 50% based on how the bubble is currently trending.

2 wins would be a run. For us, two wins would be a marathon. I think 10 total reg/post-season ACC wins are what we need, though I wouldn't say 8-10 and 2 wins would be a lock. I do think we'd get in though, because the bubble sucks and we'd be probably be beating a quality team in game 2, as you said.

 

[jncuse]

We pissed away a bunch of games. Throw in Wake on the road and Georgia Tech too. I think we need two more +1 in the ACC Tournament.

We likely don’t need one in the ACC tourney IF that first game is against a tourney level team. If that first game was a bad loss, then we are likely to be in similar positions as 2016 and 2018. A few weeks ago I would have said 9-9 is fine, even with a first round bad loss, but rihjt now the tracking I have done shows the bubble is playing well. That could change.

I don’t use absolutes at this point of year like some other do . It’s pretty silly thing to do given all the moving parts. There is a range and trends make things likely, unlikely but going definitive route is silly. Not that you fully did that above.

 

[jncuse]

It’s still a weak bubble but right now it’s getting a little less weak.

 

[iommi]

We likely don’t need one in the ACC tourney IF that first game is against a tourney level team. If that first game was a bad loss, then we are likely to be in similar positions as 2016 and 2018. A few weeks ago I would have said 9-9 is fine, even with a first round bad loss, but rihjt now the tracking I have done shows the bubble is playing well. That could change.

I don’t use absolutes at this point of year like some other do . It’s pretty silly thing to do given all the moving parts. There is a range and trends make things likely, unlikely but going definitive route is silly. Not that you fully did that above.

I agree with you. I just wouldn't feel good at 9-9 and then a loss, no matter whom we lose to. Besides that, we just really need to win a freakin' ACC Tourney game.

 

[jncuse]

You are completely barking up the wrong tree championing this position, IMO.

We absolutely need to win 2 more, and even then might need to do some additional work in the ACCT.

Anything less is treading dangerous ground.

We do not absolutely need to win 2 more. But then we need to win 2 games in the ACC, to be more likely than not.

I think to feel relatively good, we need 2 more quality wins somehow and avoid a bad loss in the acc.

 

[MikeDamone]

Who thinks that?! I have someone on ignore who has suddenly and inexplicably become belligerent to me in recent weeks. 8-10 and we'd be in a very dicey position.

RF posted that we needed to win 2 of the final 4.

Pearl31 responded:

"Have to find a way to win at least two of them" - not necessarily

Today's w and @ L'vlle are more than "decent" - both Q1 wins

 

[orangenauburn]

1road
1home
1 tournament

Your in

 

[iommi]

RF posted that we needed to win 2 of the final 4.

Pearl31 responded:

"Have to find a way to win at least two of them" - not necessarily

Today's w and @ L'vlle are more than "decent" - both Q1 wins

Thanks, Mike, but I still am not buying those Cheap Trick tickets.

 

[jncuse]

Moving parts are the mystery right now.

In 2015 we kept on losing at the end of the season. With every loss the usual suspects like kaiser would count us out, but the bubble was not squeezing us. We lost our last 3 must wins games and still got in.

In 2017 the board in general felt very good after beating duke. You can check my posts I said 50% because there is too much bad that we could not control. and when we lost to tech and Miami, the rest of the bubble played well including in the NCAA tourney and we got squeezed out. Many called us in even if we did not win any games other than Duke.

Point is — if the season plays out like 2015 some of the lower predictions we have now would be enough... but in 2017 it would be the opposite.

 

[jncuse]

So you think 8-10 or worse and we are still in good shape? No way

He never said we are in good shape at 8-10. I think he meant that we are not out there and that there is atoll a hard, but not unreasonable scenario to get back on track.

 

[pearl31]

You are completely barking up the wrong tree championing this position, IMO.

We absolutely need to win 2 more, and even then might need to do some additional work in the ACCT.

Anything less is treading dangerous ground.

lol barking up the wrong tree.
What if we win at Duke and nothing else?
(answer: we would likely be in)

Point is - there are still MANY scenarios possible and alot of those don't even involve our team. Just look at the past week. Most around here were moaning the season was over after the NcSt game.

You might consider making less declarative statements on things that are in a constant state of flux and will change 100 more times in the coming 2 weeks. There is no magic definitive number of wins.

 

[jncuse]

1road
1home
1 tournament

Your in

That’s the safe number if you want to make a call now.

But less than that, not much less will probavly be enough. And that would be 2 more quality wins, regular or post. By quality I don’t mean beating wake or tech on a neutral court in round 2 of acc.

 

[pearl31]

RF posted that we needed to win 2 of the final 4.

Pearl31 responded:

"Have to find a way to win at least two of them" - not necessarily

Today's w and @ L'vlle are more than "decent" - both Q1 wins

#clownshow