Looks like we’ll end the regular season 16-15, 10-10. Hope for better, but that’s what I see. Then just win a game in the ACC tourney to preserve the streak.
So what you're saying is you expect us to:
Lose @ VT, @ ND, vs. Duke, @ UNC
Win vs. BC, vs. GT, vs. Miami
Maybe flip @ UNC for vs. Miami, but 1-1 split on those.
That's probably realistic.
Looking at the losses, here's what I see as odds:
@ VT - 40-60 - Though KenPom thinks we are 29% to win, I think it's closer to 40% and maybe 45%. They've beaten exactly one team better than SU according to KenPom - vs. ND. Close to a coin flip.
@ ND - 40-60 - I think this is probably a tougher game than VT, but I think we matchup a bit better with them. At least historically we have. Looking at results, they're on a good run - also beat Kentucky. I think they're closer to in than out, regardless of what the pundits think.
vs. Duke - 20-80 - Not a good matchup, but home court and a raucous atmosphere could turn the tide. Likeliest of losses.
@ UNC - 30-70 - We will need to shoot extremely well, but UNC's defense isn't very good. Ours is much worse, but they are ranked 242nd in 3-pt. FG% defense. We are a 7-9 point underdog, but not impossible.
If we can get 2 of the 4 in question without Duke, that'd put us at 18-13 overall, 12-8 in league. No signature wins, but some pretty good mid-tier wins against like schools.
With a Duke win - same record, and a signature win. Playing much better at the end of the year. I would say that's enough to be on the bubble.
Long way of saying, we have a chance but it's still not great, even if we win the games we should and even win a couple on the road that we'll be underdogs for. Need some help too.
If we somehow go 6-1 down the stretch with the one loss being Duke, we're at 19-12, 13-7 in ACC, and I do believe that would be enough to be on the bubble too. Need some help there also, and likely still 2 ACCT wins.
