Tourney Week Tracking

[jncuse]

There were 57 brackets updated today on the Matrix, and this is focusing on those only. So it will incorporate wins and losses from yesterday.

I have added the 4 teams above us as well, as they are all very close to us (note Iowa loss to Nebraska today.

We moved down from 14th last in to 13th last in with our loss. Even with an opening round loss and bid stealers, it will be hard to move down to 5th last in. But if there is enough bid stealers, and teams below us play well beyond average then it is possible/ (See next post why I have highlighted 5th last in)

One of the interesting entrants into the at large competition is Belmont... initially they come in on 44% of the brackets.

Some interesting first round matchups for some teams that could essentially be play in games:
Indiana vs Ohio St
NC St vs Clemson

* The rankings below do not consider today's results.
So Iowa is probably now somewhere in that range between 13rd and 16th.
Ohio St had a Q1 loss at home... probably around 5th last team in now.
Indiana had a Q3 win at home over Rutgers... probably does not move them much.
Furman lost to UNC Greensboro. That should be enough to drop them out.

The source of much of my data is http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

 

[jncuse]

I post the following because I rely heavily on the bracket matrix for my data, which I adjust to keep current. Also consider some of the trends from that (current and prior year) to make some observations and semi-conclusions.

There has never been a team above the 5th last team in that missed the tournament.

History of Teams "In on the Matrix" but left out by the committee;

2018 2nd Last In P12
2018 Last in WCC

2017 None

2016 5th Last in A-10
2016 3rd Last in WCC
2016 2nd Last in MWC

2015 5th Last in MWC
2015 4th Last in AAC

2014 Last in AAC

2013 None

2012 Last In Big East

2011 5th Last in ACC
2011 4th Last in Big 12
2011 Last In WCC

2010 Last in SEC

2009 Last in MWC

Some Facts
14 teams in 10 years were in per the matrix, out per the committee.

The last 8 above the line misses have been from non power conferences (I am including the 2018 P12 because it was basically a high mid major).

The distribution of seeds
6 - Last Team In
2 - 2nd Last team In
1 - 3rd Last team in
2 - 4th last team in
3 - 5th last team in

So of the teams that are 2nd - 5th last team in, 20% have missed the tournament in the last 10 years. But none above that.

But as noted above, things will need to happen for us to fall that low even with a first round loss.

 

[Chris02M]

that chart has our game on the wrong day as we play wednesday

 

[jncuse]

A key bid stealer game tomorrow.

Wofford
UNC Greensboro

Wofford needs to win this one, as they would very likely get an at large.

 

[NineOneSeven]

You are truly a legend. This should be tacked.

 

[jncuse]

that chart has our game on the wrong day as we play wednesday

Corrected

 

[NineOneSeven]

I know this is said literally every year, but this year it does seem these bubble teams are unusually weak. Is that off base?

 

[Chris02M]

I know this is said literally every year, but this year it does seem these bubble teams are unusually weak. Is that off base?

every since the move to 68

 

[jncuse]

I know this is said literally every year, but this year it does seem these bubble teams are unusually weak. Is that off base?

My opinion, is that mid majors like A-10, MVC, MWC that used be good for 2-3 seeds year have become so diluted. So while the move to 68 is part of it, that also factors into it.

There has only ever been one team that was 4 games below .500 in conference that made the tournament before this year. It's almost impossible not to happen this year. In fact there is likely to be 3 There is no way that all of Oklahoma, TCU, Ohio St and Indiana miss the tournament,

 

[jncuse]

What is your thought Chris?

We have some people who have 100% lock no matter what.

I am in the high likelihood even with a loss (90%+) but would need all to go bad against us (bid stealers, the interpretation of the NET, committee judgment)

We have some who said we are out or likely out with a loss on Wednesday.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Yeah, well, your charts are all fancy, but as for me, I determine things based on how I feel (in a vacuum, mind you) about words like "deserve" and "committee."

 

[jdubs30]

Rooting Guide:

AAC:

Root for: Houston, Cincinnati, UCF
Root against: Temple, Memphis

A10:

Root for: VCU

B12:

Root for: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State
Root against: Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU

Big East:

Root for: Villanova, Marquette
Root against: Everyone else

B10:

Root for: MSU, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland
Root against: Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska

Big West:

Root against: UC Irvine

MAC:

Root for: Buffalo
Root against: Toledo

Mountain West:

Root for: Nevada
Root Against: Utah State

PAC12:

Root for : Washington
Root against: Arizona State

SEC:

Root for: Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State
Root against: Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama

Southern:

Root for: Wofford

WCC:

Root for: Gonzaga
Root against: St Mary’s

 

[jncuse]

Good guide for the first game... I think if some of those teams win their first game, they become teams to cheer for. For example Arizona St, so teams are not all in on Washington winning the PAC-10.

Similar would be Seton Hall or Utah St.

 

[jdubs30]

Good guide for the first game... I think if some of those teams win their first game, they become teams to cheer for. For example Arizona St, so teams are not all in on Washington winning the PAC-10.

Similar would be Seton Hall or Utah St.

Agreed, I’ll try to update daily

 

[bpo57]

I wander over to espn.com to look at Lunardi's latest projections. He hasn't updated since Friday. Lazy bum.

 

[jncuse]

Agreed, I’ll try to update daily

The PAC-12 seems primed for an outsider. Washington is stumbling, but has played too well not to get an at large.

 

[orange79]

I wander over to espn.com to look at Lunardi's latest projections. He hasn't updated since Friday. Lazy bum.

Well, it was the weekend.

 

[Chris02M]

What is your thought Chris?

We have some people who have 100% lock no matter what.

I am in the high likelihood even with a loss (90%+) but would need all to go bad against us (bid stealers, the interpretation of the NET, committee judgment)

We have some who said we are out or likely out with a loss on Wednesday.

the duke win will get us in regardless of outcome on wednesday

 

[bpo57]

The PAC-12 seems primed for an outsider. Washington is stumbling, but has played too well not to get an at large.

A little bit reminiscent of ASU last year tho they were leaking even more oil down the stretch, finishing 8-10 in a very bad league. Yet they got in cuz they had a couple of good wins three months prior. And SU was the beneficiary.

 

[jdubs30]

The PAC-12 seems primed for an outsider. Washington is stumbling, but has played too well not to get an at large.

I barely put a “root for” for the PAC12. My only reasoning is they may be closest for an at large so it’s probably safest to root for them. But if they lose their first tournament game they might be out.

Our best bet is in the PAC12 is hope one of Washington/ASU lose their first game, and the other wins the whole thing

 

[pearl31]

the duke win will get us in regardless of outcome on wednesday

(+ road record, + SOS ranking...)

 

[Newhouser]

we win Wednesday we are 8/9. Lose and we are the last 10.

 

[bpo57]

UNC is showing up as a #1 seed in many brackets. They're a good team but very fortunate in that they played Duke twice without Zion in there. Duke is not nearly the same team without the big guy.

 

[jdubs30]

UNC is showing up as a #1 seed in many brackets. They're a good team but very fortunate in that they played Duke twice without Zion in there. Duke is not nearly the same team without the big guy.

They’ll most likely meet Friday with Zion

 

[Nicknack]

Rooting Guide:

AAC:

Root for: Houston, Cincinnati, UCF
Root against: Temple, Memphis

A10:

Root for: VCU

B12:

Root for: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State
Root against: Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU

Big East:

Root for: Villanova, Marquette
Root against: Everyone else

B10:

Root for: MSU, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland
Root against: Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska

Big West:

Root against: UC Irvine

MAC:

Root for: Buffalo
Root against: Toledo

Mountain West:

Root for: Nevada
Root Against: Utah State

PAC12:

Root for : Washington
Root against: Arizona State

SEC:

Root for: Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State
Root against: Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama

Southern:

Root for: Wofford

WCC:

Root for: Gonzaga
Root against: St Mary’s

Thanks for all your work, Dubs. This is really helpful for someone who is too lazy to do it themselves, like me! Refreshing to see people (like jncuse and many others) contribute in a positive way instead of the trend with some here who like to dwell on everything negative.