Tourney Week Tracking

[cuse10]

St. Bonaventure had multiple chances to not only tie but clinch a NCAA Tournament spot. Can't ask for a better shot than that. Don't know why Stockard fouled. If you're going to be that aggressive, play him a full 90 feet.

 

[orange79]

Dumb question, but what time is the selection announced?

Selection show is on CBS at 6PM Eastern time

 

[MSOrange]

Gosh Michigan State is having tough luck with injuries this year. Just had a forward go down with an ugly leg injury

 

[JeremyCuse]

Gosh Michigan State is having tough luck with injuries this year. Just had a forward go down with an ugly leg injury

Saw the aftermath but not the injury itself luckily. Looked bad to say the least.

 

[orange79]

Gosh Michigan State is having tough luck with injuries this year. Just had a forward go down with an ugly leg injury

They put an aircast on Ahrens and carted him off. Tough break for MSU. He didn't do a lot of scoring, but he played 20 minutes a game. Hope he can make it back.

 

[JeremyCuse]

They put an aircast on Ahrens and carted him off. Tough break for MSU. He didn't do a lot of scoring, but he played 20 minutes a game. Hope he can make it back.

Believe hes a sr, unfortunately his career seems over.

 

[orange79]

Believe hes a sr, unfortunately his career seems over.

Listed as a RS Junior on MSU's website.

 

[kingtidge]

Jeebus... Belein and Michigan just got jobbed by the zebras.

 

[jncuse]

Decided to put a seed list together. My secret to this list is not too complicated... generally I am only going to move you down or up 1 seed line from where the NET suggests you should go. This is because I suspect they will use the NET more for seeding than usual.

So you will see Buffalo, Wofford, St. Mary's, New Mexico St a little higher than others, and how they would normally be.

This could also be a total whiff, but let's see. These are also not done by bracket. These are not done by region at all.

DELETED - After Mich St win... See below.

 

[Newhouser]

Jeebus... Belein and Michigan just got jobbed by the zebras.

They got jobbed by the way they played the last 2 minutes. Awful on both ends.

 

[kingtidge]

They got jobbed by the way they played the last 2 minutes. Awful on both ends.

Two clutch call and no calls that jobbed them in the final minute.

I suspect belein will be accepting some fines after his presser.

 

[jncuse]

DELETE - Did not realize Michigan St had pulled it out. Changes things.

 

[bpo57]

Decided to put a seed list together. My secret to this list is not too complicated... generally I am only going to move you down or up 1 seed line from where the NET suggests you should go. This is because I suspect they will use the NET more for seeding than usual.

So you will see Buffalo, Wofford, St. Mary's, New Mexico St a little higher than others, and how they would normally be.

This could also be a total whiff, but let's see. These are also not done by bracket. These are not done by region at all.

View attachment 156475

Can I put together a bracket in 15 minutes from scratch...will give it a shot,

Looks good. If your seeds are representative then how loaded is the SEC with 7 of the top 32.

 

[jncuse]

Re-do after Michigan St win

 

[jncuse]

Last 4 In
NC St
Belmont
TCU
St. Johns

Last Out
Arizona St
Temple

 

[Jake]

I think there is the other “elephant in the room” factor. TCU and NC State would bring the FBI storyline to each broadcast. Not sure the NCAA wants that.

Almost never a doubt.

 

[samspann1]

Almost never a doubt.

Good call.

 

[Tom W.]

Well I went 67/68 for 346 points on my quick count on TCW Bracketology. Not bad. Had some seeding troubles this year for sure.
Now let's go ORANGE!

 

[jncuse]

Almost never a doubt.

Please make sure you PM your conspiracy theories to me next year prior to my selections!!

 

[jncuse]

Well I went 67/68 for 346 points on my quick count. Not bad. Had some seeding troubles this year for sure.
Now let's go ORANGE!

I started at 5:10. I had a 340. As per my post, I used NET and then dropped teams one seed (or up) based on personal feeling.

Not nailing the 1 seeds cost me 8 points.
Seemed like my assumption that the committee would be generous to smaller conference schools with Good NET's was ultimately wrong. Should have stuck with what I did in the past.

 

[Tom W.]

Well I went 67/68 for 346 points on my quick count on TCW Bracketology. Not bad. Had some seeding troubles this year for sure.
Now let's go ORANGE!

I started at 5:10. I had a 340. As per my post, I used NET and then dropped teams one seed (or up) based on personal feeling.

Not nailing the 1 seeds cost me 8 points.
Seemed like my assumption that the committee would be generous to smaller conference schools with Good NET's was ultimately wrong. Should have stuck with what I did in the past.

I missed 4 teams by 2 seed lines which hurt. VCU at 8 was surprising. Same with Seton Hall at 10. I took chance with Iowa St at a 4 and VT as a 6 and missed.

Missed Belmont. Had TCU. (Took Belmont out after Oregon's win last night)

 

[jncuse]

TCU is the biggest miss in the history of the Bracket Matrix.

I post the following because I rely heavily on the bracket matrix for my data, which I adjust to keep current. Also consider some of the trends from that (current and prior year) to make some observations and semi-conclusions.

There has never been a team above the 5th last team in that missed the tournament.

History of Teams "In on the Matrix" but left out by the committee;

2018 2nd Last In P12
2018 Last in WCC

2017 None

2016 5th Last in A-10
2016 3rd Last in WCC
2016 2nd Last in MWC

2015 5th Last in MWC
2015 4th Last in AAC

2014 Last in AAC

2013 None

2012 Last In Big East

2011 5th Last in ACC
2011 4th Last in Big 12
2011 Last In WCC

2010 Last in SEC

2009 Last in MWC

Some Facts
14 teams in 10 years were in per the matrix, out per the committee.

The last 8 above the line misses have been from non power conferences (I am including the 2018 P12 because it was basically a high mid major).

The distribution of seeds
6 - Last Team In
2 - 2nd Last team In
1 - 3rd Last team in
2 - 4th last team in
3 - 5th last team in

So of the teams that are 2nd - 5th last team in, 20% have missed the tournament in the last 10 years. But none above that.

But as noted above, things will need to happen for us to fall that low even with a first round loss.

The jinx of the 5th last in continues. Only 1 team missed, and it was 5th last team in.. TCU, who was in on 95% of the brackets.

In the last 11 years, the 2nd to 4th last in on the final matrix get in 89% of the time.
But that 5th last in only gets in 64% of the time, including 3 times the last 5 years.

 

[Chris02M]

I got 2 wrong but deserve partial credit for unc Greensboro was first out because of Oregon win eliminating the spot