Tracking the Bracket Matrix throughout the Regular Season

[pearl31]

The matrix has been updated. Just note that of the 102 brackets that are out, only 40 were done after our game on Monday, so the overall totals are lagging. We are only in 16% of the older brackets, but we are up to 45% on the new brackets.

Out of 40 New
Virginia Tech 24
Boise St 22
----------------
Syracuse 18
UCLA 10

So we are still tracking as the last team out, but it is almost a coinflip.

so NcSt @ VaTech tonight - who we pulling for?

 

[jncuse]

so NcSt @ VaTech tonight - who we pulling for?

In toss-ups like this based on the new system I am almost going to go with home teams.

Virginia Tech Wins = Quad 2 Win.
NC State wins = Quad 1 Win

 

[jncuse]

The first 2 days of closer tracking of the bubble have not been to the advantage of Syracuse (to keep it simple for now I am looking at the 8 teams on both side).

Note that a quad 3 or quad 4 win is basically irrelevant... except that you avoided a bad loss.

Last night the teams were 4-0.
6th last team in Arkansas wins over South Carolina by 16 (Quad 2)
7th last team in Providence survives at home over Georgetown by 4 (Quad 3)
8th last team in Missouri wins at Ole Miss by 6 (Quad 2)
Last Team in Boise St wins by 2 at New Mexico. They were down 11 at the half. (Quad 3)

Tonight: A few team racked up some high quality road victories tonight.

Winners
4th team out Marquette wins at Seton Hall (Quad 1)
5th team out St. Bonaventure wins over St. Louis (Quad 3)
2nd last team in Virginia Tech wins over NC St (Quad 2)
3rd last team in Kansas St wins at Texas (Quad 1)

Losers
6th team out LSU loses at Florida (Quad 1)
8th team out Georgia loses at Vanderbilt (Quad 2)
4th last team in NC St loses at Virginia Tech (Quad 1)


Eventually these teams will slump, sooner rather than later. Just keep winning.

 

[MSOrange]

NCAA selection chair: Revamped evaluation a 'positive step'

 

[jncuse]

Games for the night.

Western Kentucky is currently the 6th team out. Quad 4 Win opportunity does nothing for them.

SMU is currently the 3rd team out. This is a Quad 1 win opportunity.

UCLA is the second team out. Quad One win Opportunity

 

[jncuse]

Washington is currently the 5th last team in. This is a Quad 2 win.

Happy to see you doing so well so far Mike, but an NIT final four would still be a great accomplishment. Go Ducks.

 

[jncuse]

We are currently the first team out in the latest matrix.

38 of 108. However,
29 of 55 post Louisville
9 of 53 pre Louisville game.

Perhaps we move ahead of Boise St by Wake Forest game.

 

[20Plus]

View attachment 121962

Washington is currently the 5th last team in. This is a Quad 2 win.

Happy to see you doing so well so far Mike, but an NIT final four would still be a great accomplishment. Go Ducks.

This is exactly right

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse, Kansas St, Marquette, now UCLA?

Quite a few quality road wins this week by bubble teams.

 

[jncuse]

A so-so night. Washington losing a level 2 road game was good, as was SMU losing a level 1 road game which they led the majority of the way.

But UCLA got an elite level 1 road win. So they probably jump over us. We will gain a bit on Washington, but a level 2 road loss won't close the gap that much.

 

[jncuse]

FRIDAY - NO GAMES

 

[JoeySimz]

A so-so night. Washington losing a level 2 road game was good, as was SMU losing a level 1 road game which they led the majority of the way.

But UCLA got an elite level 1 road win. So they probably jump over us. We will gain a bit on Washington, but a level 2 road loss won't close the gap that much.

I guess I need to smarten up and not be so naive in rooting for UW if we are competing for a tourney bid. Thanks for maintaining this thread.

 

[jncuse]

We are currently the first team out per the matrix. I would have expected to be in, but Kansas St and Boise St also pulled off road wins after the Louisville game. Also after last nigh, UCLA may be ahead of us after beating Arizona. It's all very tight, and all we can keep doing is winning.

I still stick with the 9-9 ACC record as a target. At one point I had mentioned that 8-10 could possibly put us right on the bubble line entering the NCAA tourney, but I have weakened on that position.

 

[jncuse]

This weekend's schedule (12 Last in, First 8 Out)

Note - There are a few teams on the last outside of the parameters (12 & 8) because this schedule was prepared before the latest matrix. I kept the teams that are not on that group on the schedule anyway, but the rankings are updated.

By Time
Sat 12:00: 10th team out Maryland (-4.5) vs Northwestern (Quad Three) WIN
Sat 12:00: 3rd team out Marquette (+1.0) at St. John's (Quad One) LOSS
Sat 12:00: 5th team out Temple at South Florida (Quad Four) WIN
Sat 2:00: 12th last team in Texas (+5.5) at TCU (Quad One) LOSS
Sat 2:00: 3rd last team in NC St (+3.5) vs UNC (Quad One) LOSS
Sat 2:00: 14th last team in Missouri (-5.5) vs Fourth Team out Miss St. (Quad Two for Missouri, Quad One for Miss St) (WIN / LOSS)
Sat 4:00: 8th team out Nebraska (-10.0) vs Rutgers (Quad Four) WIN
Sat 4:00: 10th team out LSU (4.5) vs Ole Miss (Quad Three) WIN
Sat 4:00: 11th team in Providence (-9.0) vs Depaul (Quad Four) REALLY BAD LOSS
Sat 4:00: 6th team out St. Bonaventure (-10.0) vs Richmond (Quad Four)
Sat 6:00: 10th last team in Alabama (+2.5) vs Tennessee (Quad One)
Sat 6:15: Last team in Virginia Tech (+12) at Virginia (Quad One)
Sat 7:00: 2nd last team in UCLA (+3.5) at Arizona St (Quad One)
Sat 7:00: 7th last team out Western Kentucky (-15.5) vs Florida International (Quad Four)
Sat 8:00: 4th last team in Kansas St (+1) vs Texas Tech (Quad One)
Sat 8:30: 9th last team in Arkansas (-7) vs Vanderbilt (Quad Three)
Sat 9:00: First Team out in Boise St (-3.5) at Utah St (Quad Three)
Sat 10:00: 5th Last Team in Washington (+4) at Oregon St (Quad Three)
Sat 10:15: 6th Last Team in USC (+5.5) at Arizona (Quad One)
Sun 1:00: 7th Last Team in Louisville at Pitt (Quad Three)
Sun 1:00: Last Team Out Syracuse vs Wake Forest (Quad Three)
Sun 6:00: 9th Last Team in Houston vs Tulane (Quad Three)

By Ranking

Sat 2:00: 14th last team in Missouri (-5.5) vs Miss St. (Quad Two) - WIN
Sat 2:00: 12th last team in Texas (+5.5) at TCU (Quad One) - LOSS
Sat 4:00: 11th last team in Providence (-9.0) vs Depaul (Quad Four) BAD LOSS
Sat 6:00: 10th last team in Alabama (+2.5) vs Tennessee (Quad One)
Sat 8:30: 9th last team in Arkansas (-7) vs Vanderbilt (Quad Three)
Sun 6:00: 8th Last Team in Houston vs Tulane (Quad Three)
Sun 1:00: 7th Last Team in Louisville at Pitt (Quad Three)
Sat 10:15: 6th Last Team in USC (+5.5) at Arizona (Quad One)
Sat 10:00: 5th Last Team in Washington (+4) at Oregon St (Quad Three)
Sat 8:00: 4th last team in Kansas St (+1) vs Texas Tech (Quad One)
Sat 2:00: 3rd last team in NC St (+3.5) vs UNC (Quad One) - LOSS
Sat 7:00: 2nd last team in UCLA (+3.5) at Arizona St (Quad One)
Sat 6:15: Last team in Virginia Tech (+12) at Virginia (Quad One)
Sat 9:00: First Team out Boise St (-3.5) vs Utah St (Quad Three)
Sun 1:00: 2nd Team Out Syracuse vs Wake Forest (Quad Three)
Sat 12:00: 3rd team out Marquette (+1.0) at St. John's (Quad One) (LOSS)
Sat 2:00: 4th team out Miss St (+5.5) at Missouri (Quad One) (LOSS)
Sat 12:00: 5th team out Temple at South Florida (Quad Four) (WIN)
Sat 4:00: 6th team out St. Bonaventure (-10.0) vs Richmond (Quad Four)
Sat 7:00: 7th last team out Western Kentucky (-15.5) vs Florida International (Quad Four)
Sat 4:00: 8th team out Nebraska (-10.0) vs Rutgers (Quad Four) WIN
Sat 12:00: 10th team out Maryland (-4.5) vs Northwestern (Quad Three) (WIN)
Sat 4:00: 11th team out LSU (4.5) vs Ole Miss (Quad Three) WIN

 

[pearl31]

yeoman's work, jn

 

[SoBeCuse]

yeoman's work, jn

No doubt!

 

[Dave85]

yeoman's work, jn

He's da man!

 

[orange79]

After last night's games:

SU RPI 37

Q1 wins = 2
Q2 wins = 3
Q3 wins = 6
Q4 wins = 5

Q1 losses = 4
Q2 losses = 3
Q3 losses = 1
Q4 losses = 0

 

[Knicks411]

The most amazing thing for me is seeing after one week, St Johns is now a quad one team. (74 in RPI). My presumption would be if Marquette beat them, they'd fall out of the top 75 and become a quad 2 win. But still

 

[jncuse]

The most amazing thing for me is seeing after one week, St Johns is now a quad one team. (74 in RPI). My presumption would be if Marquette beat them, they'd fall out of the top 75 and become a quad 2 win. But still

It surprised me as well. Their SOS is really strong at #4. You are correct they would drop out.

But it makes me wonder -- the fact that a #74 road win is so highly valued now, will they still emphasize road wins as much as before, or will they diminish that since the quad records are now diminished or enhanced based on where you are winning. Basically, this new quad could be "doubling" the value of winning on the road.

 

[Knicks411]

It surprised me as well. Their SOS is really strong at #4. You are correct they would drop out.

But it makes me wonder -- the fact that a #74 road win is so highly valued now, will they still emphasize road wins as much as before, or will they diminish that since the quad records are now diminished or enhanced based on where you are winning. Basically, this new quad could be "doubling" the value of winning on the road.

That's a good question; I would think they would need to probably slightly diminish the value of a road win. I wonder if they've thought that through. I sometimes feel like the fans who do this stuff for fun sometimes put more thought into stuff like that then the people who matter

 

[jncuse]

Note - there was a more recent matrix that came out this morning. I touched up the rankings and added 2 games to the list... one is already done (Temple), and Texas is playing now. Also Miss St has picked up a bit on the outside after beating Bama this week. They are now the 4th team out, and are playing a QUAD ONE game at Missouri.

The schedules have been updated.

What is interesting today is the concentration of quad one games around the bubble line. Of the 9 teams closest to the bubble line other than us, 7 are playing quad one games this weekend. We may not gain much on them if they lose, but we certainly don't want them to get a bump from winning either.

 

[jncuse]

Matrix Standings before Today's Game -- as older data has went away, we are now much tighter to the teams that are in, yet we fell to second team out as UCLA won.

(Out of 78)
USC 63
Washington 62
Kansas St 60
NC St 54
UCLA 52
Virginia Tech 50
------------
Boise St 47
Syracuse 45

 

[pearl31]

how is Ok St on 0 brackets in the matrix entering today (yeah they'll probably get on a couple after winning today at WVU, but still)??
but a team like Temple is square on the bubble???

 

[jncuse]

Oklahoma St was not on the list of 8 teams out before today. This is their 4th Quad one Win, but their RPI is 84 (it was 107 before today). If they keep winning a couple quality games, they could be the "RPI" outlier this year on the bubble,

Win by Maryland, but as the 10th team out, they need something bigger than this to give them a big jump.

A meh victory for the 5th last team out. How is the team even being considered. Record is not great overall or in the AAC? They beat Auburn and Clemson in OOC play, which at the time looked like nothing special, but are now major neutral court victories.