Tracking the Bracket Matrix throughout the Regular Season | Page 4 | Syracusefan.com

Tracking the Bracket Matrix throughout the Regular Season

pearl31 said:
how is Ok St on 0 brackets in the matrix entering today (yeah they'll probably get on a couple after winning today at WVU, but still)??
but a team like Temple is square on the bubble???
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I thought the same, and just looked at what they did when I posted the above scores from today.

Oklahoma St is getting killed by the RPI which was 107 before this win. Now it is 84, and I suspect they will get some support.

Temple beat Auburn and Clemson on a neutral court tourney earlier in the year. Seemed modest at the time, but is really huge. RPI of 38, with 4 quad one wins, and 7-6 in Quad one and Quad Two. They bear watching.
 
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A blown opportunity by Marquette. Not sure if St. John's is bad or good right now.
 
Olahoma is falling apart -- down 40-23 to Iowa St.

They will fall to 16-8... still a ways from the bubble line.
 
So we need to root for unc, rutgers, asu? What about games like uva/tech or st.bona/richmond regarding our bid? Does it help if bona loses since they're on the bubble too? (Or hurt rpi) Is va tech squarely in?
 
UNC leading NC State late in Raleigh. Could be another good result for us
 
JoeySimz said:
So we need to root for unc, rutgers, asu? What about games like uva/tech or st.bona/richmond regarding our bid? Does it help if bona loses since they're on the bubble too? (Or hurt rpi) Is va tech squarely in?
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Root for the non bolded teams.

For teams that we have beat or played. I think them losing outweighs the other factors but sometimes it is close. For example Virginia Tech is a nice win for us and we would like the win against a tourney team, but at the same time they are the last team in right now and about equal footing with us. if they beat Virginia on the road that is a signature win that puts them well ahead of us.
 
NC State just absolutely has to be a win for us. We're projected to be 20-11 (9-9) and they're projected to be 20-11 (10-8). We're both hovering around those play-in game slots. Our computer ratings are close. We can't compete (as of now) with their elite wins vs. Duke and UNC, so if they beat us on the road, it's going to be extremely hard to make any type of case that we're ahead of them.
 
Eric15 said:
NC State just absolutely has to be a win for us. We're projected to be 20-11 (9-9) and they're projected to be 20-11 (10-8). We're both hovering around those play-in game slots. Our computer ratings are close. We can't compete (as of now) with their elite wins vs. Duke and UNC, so if they beat us on the road, it's going to be extremely hard to make any type of case that we're ahead of them.
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Plus, if you look at our win probabilities, NC State is the game we're second most likely to win the rest of the way, after tomorrow. Getting even to 9 wins without beating NC state would be very difficult; you'd probably be looking at beating UNC/Clemson at home and then @BC, assuming they get Wake tomorrow.
 
Eric15 said:
NC State just absolutely has to be a win for us. We're projected to be 20-11 (9-9) and they're projected to be 20-11 (10-8). We're both hovering around those play-in game slots. Our computer ratings are close. We can't compete (as of now) with their elite wins vs. Duke and UNC, so if they beat us on the road, it's going to be extremely hard to make any type of case that we're ahead of them.
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Those dudes can really score. I think they’re going to get some points on us (no Gottfried anymore) so the offense will need to be as effective as it was against UL. This game worries me, frankly. That Keats knows his stuff unlike Padgett. I think they play some pressure man with smaller, quick guards. Georgia Tech and NCSU don’t really bother most teams but with Frank this could be a problem.
 
So far a good day,

Bubble teams are 0-4 in attempts to get Quad One wins. And Providence crashes with a QUAD 4 LOSS at home,

upload_2018-2-10_17-47-59.png


Providence is still in with 5 Quad One win IMO, but this will being them closer to the middle.
 
SoBeCuse said:
Those dudes can really score. I think they’re going to get some points on us (no Gottfried anymore) so the offense will need to be as effective as it was against UL. This game worries me, frankly. That Keats knows his stuff unlike Padgett. I think they play some pressure man with smaller, quick guards. Georgia Tech and NCSU don’t really bother most teams but with Frank this could be a problem.
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nc st is bad defensively and in rebounding
 
pearl31 said:
nc st is bad defensively and in rebounding
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Well aware. Good, bad, indifferent, it doesn’t matter that much, IMO. If they are going to deploy pressure against Frank then all bets are off. Pitt is bad in those categories too and we had trouble with them barely scoring and somehow were able to escape since they are horrendous. NC St. is much better offensively. Unless they completely lock/seize up against the zone then I expect a real struggle.
 
Briancuse said:
Yup they can score though..yurtseven made maye look like bill Walton today.
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Maye is a great player. He’s a less athletic version of Tyler Lydon so he will stay all four years. If it wasn’t for Bagley he would be ACC POY. Can’t believe he’s only a JR.
 
SoBeCuse said:
Well aware. Good, bad, indifferent, it doesn’t matter that much, IMO. If they are going to deploy pressure against Frank then all bets are off. Pitt is bad in those categories too and we had trouble with them barely scoring and somehow were able to escape since they are horrendous. NC St. is much better offensively. Unless they completely lock/seize up against the zone then I expect a real struggle.
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yep, hear ya - just pointing out they were swiss cheese today and in other games I've watched
 
Updated results for today. Overall a great day for Syracuse despite the Virginia Tech win.

By Ranking

Sat 2:00: 14th last team in Missouri (-5.5) vs Miss St. (Quad Two) - WIN
Sat 2:00: 12th last team in Texas (+5.5) at TCU (Quad One) - LOSS
Sat 4:00: 11th last team in Providence (-9.0) vs Depaul (Quad Four) VERY BAD LOSS
Sat 6:00: 10th last team in Alabama (+2.5) vs Tennessee (Quad One) QUALITY WIN
Sat 8:30: 9th last team in Arkansas (-7) vs Vanderbilt (Quad Three) WIN
Sun 6:00: 8th Last Team in Houston vs Tulane (Quad Three)
Sun 1:00: 7th Last Team in Louisville at Pitt (Quad Three)
Sat 10:15: 6th Last Team in USC (+5.5) at Arizona (Quad One) LOSS
Sat 10:00: 5th Last Team in Washington (+4) at Oregon St (Quad Three) LOSS
Sat 8:00: 4th last team in Kansas St (+1) vs Texas Tech (Quad One) LOSS
Sat 2:00: 3rd last team in NC St (+3.5) vs UNC (Quad One) - LOSS
Sat 7:00: 2nd last team in UCLA (+3.5) at Arizona St (Quad One) LOSS
Sat 6:15: Last team in Virginia Tech (+12) at Virginia (Quad One) HIGH QUALITY WIN
Sat 9:00: First Team out Boise St (-3.5) vs Utah St (Quad Three) LOSS
Sun 1:00: 2nd Team Out Syracuse vs Wake Forest (Quad Three)
Sat 12:00: 3rd team out Marquette (+1.0) at St. John's (Quad One) (LOSS)
Sat 2:00: 4th team out Miss St (+5.5) at Missouri (Quad One) (LOSS)
Sat 12:00: 5th team out Temple at South Florida (Quad Four) (WIN)
Sat 4:00: 6th team out St. Bonaventure (-10.0) vs Richmond (Quad Four) (WIN)
Sat 7:00: 7th last team out Western Kentucky (-15.5) vs Florida International (WIN)
Sat 4:00: 8th team out Nebraska (-10.0) vs Rutgers (Quad Four) WIN
Sat 12:00: 10th team out Maryland (-4.5) vs Northwestern (Quad Three) (WIN)
Sat 4:00: 11th team out LSU (4.5) vs Ole Miss (Quad Three) WIN

Teams from 6th last in to 4th team out
If we concentrate right on the bubble line (6 last teams in / 4 last teams out), the teams that played today went 1-8. That one win was a massive one for Virginia Tech. But the other 6 teams who all had quality win opportunities lost. Their resume may not be much worse, but for only 1 of the 7 teams to capitalize is good news for Syracuse.

In the above group of teams that went 1-8, there was only two teams that played games against poor teams. Those were Washington and Boise St, who both loss quad three games (relatively bad losses). We will be ahead of those two on the matrix if we take care of business tomorrow. Whether the matrix = the committee, no it does not, but it's a decent predictive tool.

The teams from 12th last in to 7th last in
These teams performed OK. Alabama had a good win, but Providence had a really bad loss.

Teams from 5th team out to 10th team out
These teams all won, but none of the wins were quality wins.. all quad 3 and quad 4 wins. This teams were a clear gap behind, and these wins don't change that.
 
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This doesn't help. They can't afford any more slip ups the next 5 games if there is any change for them to be top 30 enetering tourney selection week.

upload_2018-2-11_1-17-48.png
 
Some have raised this before, but the total Quad 1 wins # is a concern. What is really interesting is the lack of top quality opponents we have faced this year. Only Boise St and Western kentucy have played less. We have a pretty empty resume.. sort of like Wake Forest last year,

Texas 5-7
Providence 6-5
Alabama 6-3
Houston 3-2
Arkansas 3-6
Louisville 2-6
USC 2-6
Washington 5-3
NC St 4-7
UCLA 2-4
Kansas St 4-6
Virginia Tech 4-5
------
Boise St 0-3
Syracuse 1-4
Marquette 3-9
Ole Miss 1-6
Temple 4-5
St Bonaventure 3-2
Nebraska 0-6
Western Kentucky 1-2
Maryland 1-8
 
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