Tracking the Bracket Matrix throughout the Regular Season

[pearl31]

yep we haven't even started talking about the dreaded conf tourney bid stealers yet - seems like the aac and a10 are always a danger with that (esp this year) - but yeah the big west is definitely a concern, too - need Nevada to win that sucker

oops make that Mountain West

 

[jdubs30]

How far can Oklahoma fall? Are they in danger of being locked out? As long as they beat Iowa St at home they are fine. That would mean they finish the season at 1-9.

They have 6 quad one wins, and if they beat Iowa St at home, they would have no bad losses. Even at 17-14, 7-11 in the B12, that is clearly a formula that would get them in.

jncuse - I love this time of year and you've made this board that much better with your research and data that you post - I'm excited to do it again this year with you.

To me, OU was grossly overseeded when the NCAA gave them a 4, I think we all agree on that piece. But what the NCAA did was give themselves a buffer - so now when OU gets in (they will get in, regardless of what happens down the stretch) - the committee can point back and say "on 2/11 we saw them as a 4 seed, but their issues down the stretch caused them to drop to a 10 seed". They gave us a basis to compare. If OU was not in the top 16 (which they should not have been), the way they're trending would most likely cost them a bubble spot because all we would know is that OU was never in the top 16. But now the committee will have to go back and justify a team dropping essentially 24 spots in 30 days. They gave OU the breathing room they needed because otherwise there'd be no basis for comparsion.


We all know what the NCAA wants. Trae Young (as much as he's struggled) is doing something that has never been done before and to the "casual fan" - the most exciting player in college basketball. The Steph Curry comparsions, the Lebron soundclips, etc. The NCAA would love nothing more than to get this kid in the tournament - he draws a lot of eyeballs. The NCAA needs Trae Young in the tournament. When they made them a 4 seeed last week they were just giving themselves a buffer for Oklahoma's inevitable downfall

 

[pearl31]

jncuse - I love this time of year and you've made this board that much better with your research and data that you post - I'm excited to do it again this year with you.

To me, OU was grossly overseeded when the NCAA gave them a 4, I think we all agree on that piece. But what the NCAA did was give themselves a buffer - so now when OU gets in (they will get in, regardless of what happens down the stretch) - the committee can point back and say "on 2/11 we saw them as a 4 seed, but their issues down the stretch caused them to drop to a 10 seed". They gave us a basis to compare. If OU was not in the top 16 (which they should not have been), the way they're trending would most likely cost them a bubble spot because all we would know is that OU was never in the top 16. But now the committee will have to go back and justify a team dropping essentially 24 spots in 30 days. They gave OU the breathing room they needed because otherwise there'd be no basis for comparsion.


We all know what the NCAA wants. Trae Young (as much as he's struggled) is doing something that has never been done before and to the "casual fan" - the most exciting player in college basketball. The Steph Curry comparsions, the Lebron soundclips, etc. The NCAA would love nothing more than to get this kid in the tournament - he draws a lot of eyeballs. The NCAA needs Trae Young in the tournament. When they made them a 4 seeed last week they were just giving themselves a buffer for Oklahoma's inevitable downfall

good post.
yep, they'll make sure Trae is in the tourney (and prominently featured) come hell or high water. as you say, it's about attracting as many "casual" March Madness fans (viewers, consumers) as possible.

 

[Madbiker]

How far can Oklahoma fall? Are they in danger of being locked out? As long as they beat Iowa St at home they are fine. That would mean they finish the season at 1-9.

They have 6 quad one wins, and if they beat Iowa St at home, they would have no bad losses. Even at 17-14, 7-11 in the B12, that is clearly a formula that would get them in.

The NCAA will want Young in the tourney on TV. They will get in barring outright calamity.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I’m sorry they are 2-8 in their last 10. I can’t remember a team that got in losing 11 out of 14. That’s completely tanking your season.

 

[pearl31]

I’m sorry they are 2-8 in their last 10. I can’t remember a team that got in losing 11 out of 14. That’s completely tanking your season.

#trae

 

[KaiserUEO]

#trae

#bensimmons#flucktrae

 

[jncuse]

I’m sorry they are 2-8 in their last 10. I can’t remember a team that got in losing 11 out of 14. That’s completely tanking your season.

Villanova in the year the BE got 11 teams.

 

[MSOrange]

#bensimmons#flucktrae

Exactly. They didn’t let Ben Simmons in last year when a lot of people thought they would

 

[jncuse]

You can free to think it is a conspiracy if they are in, but count me out of that of view. Beat Iowa St, and they 100% deserve to get in based on prior selectons.

6 Quad One Wins
Zero Quad three or four losses.
Reasonable RPI (mid 50's)

Never seen a resume like that get excluded. B12 teams do however get protected from bad losses as there are very few bad loss opportunities in conference play.

It is nothing like Ben Simmons, because LSU had bad losses and less quality wins.

 

[jncuse]

#bensimmons#flucktrae

Two entirely different resumes.

Assuming Oklahoma continues to stink it up and finishes 1-4 the rest of the way.

Quality Wins / Top 50 Wins* - Oklahoma 6 vs LSU 3
Bad Losses (q3+q4 vs sub 100) = Oklahoma 0 vs LSU 6

Oklahoma may be getting the benefit of the doubt of playing in the B12 this year rather than the SEC from 2 years ago.

 

[jncuse]

The NCAA will want Young in the tourney on TV. They will get in barring outright calamity.

The only calamity that would justify them being out would be if they lost to Iowa St at home, and went 0-4 the rest of the way.

Otherwise they will get in because the numbers showed they deserved to get in. Of course the NCAA will be happy about that.

 

[Knicks411]

Don’t get why everyone’s assuming we lose to UNC and Duke, but beat BC and Clemson. If anything this season has shown you there’s no script to getting wins. The entire board thought we were losing at Louisville and Miami.

Yeah, I think @BC is really sneaky, and I can see why people are overlooking it, since if you use RPI, we're playing 4, 5, and 7 in our other 3 games. But BC is going to be tough, I feel somewhat confident we can get 1 of the 3 between UNC, Clemson, and Duke (since 2 of them are at home) but we could easily trip up on the road.

Exactly. They didn’t let Ben Simmons in last year when a lot of people thought they would

Don't forget Steph Curry.

 

[MSOrange]

Yeah, I think @BC is really sneaky, and I can see why people are overlooking it, since if you use RPI, we're playing 4, 5, and 7 in our other 3 games. But BC is going to be tough, I feel somewhat confident we can get 1 of the 3 between UNC, Clemson, and Duke (since 2 of them are at home) but we could easily trip up on the road.




Don't forget Steph Curry.

You lost me with the Steph Curry reference? Davidson won their conference tourney so they had to be in that year.

 

[Knicks411]

You lost me with the Steph Curry reference? Davidson won their conference tourney so they had to be in that year.

The year after their run, he was still there, they were a bubble team, a lot of people thought no way the committee would keep them out after the run they went on in 2008.

 

[MSOrange]

The year after their run, he was still there, they were a bubble team, a lot of people thought no way the committee would keep them out after the run they went on in 2008.

Good call. I forgot he was a junior during their big year. I think the bottom line is there is evidence they evaluate teams on merit and not if they have a great player to spike ratings and I think despite their best efforts to blow it, OU gets in based on their quad 1 wins

 

[jncuse]

In arguing for Trae Young and Oklahoma despite going 1-9, I am sensing the P12 effect from 2016 for the B12 in 2018.

Everything worked out really well "RPI wise" for the P12 as a whole that year, and it was easy for teams to rack up quality wins in conference and hard to get bad losses. It makes it very hard for a B12 team that did well OOC to fall out of the picture.

And that may mean several Bi12 teams are overseeded come March.

 

[JoeySimz]

I'm interested in your opinions on two questions:

1. So, is this evidence that the ranking system works? In other words, does it all even out at the end? Or do teams like Kentucky benefit from high preseason rankings more than similar teams without all the preseason hype? (Maybe include OU. Do they benefit from shooting up the rankings and have to lose more than others to even out in the end?)

2. St. Mary's - what gives? Their record is impressive but other than 4 nice wins their entire schedule looks like cream puff city. Not much of a non-conference. Are they getting credit for a weak non-conference and for playing in the not so impressive wcc? Will other bball teams follow suit and schedule weak non-cons ala football?

 

[jncuse]

Hey, jncuse - just wanted to throw out a thanks for the work that you do breaking things down this time of the year. Although, I really wish we didn't have to be concerned with bubble talk! You definitely know your stuff, you showed that particularly the year before last when many doubted what you were saying. Keep up the good work -

Thanks NickNack.

Years ago, I was a person to make brackets each week. Now I just prefer gathering and sharing information from what I think are fairly good resources and tools, and making some projections as well. I think it probably provides more info than just creating a bracket

 

[jncuse]

I'm interested in your opinions on two questions:

1. So, is this evidence that the ranking system works? In other words, does it all even out at the end? Or do teams like Kentucky benefit from high preseason rankings more than similar teams without all the preseason hype? (Maybe include OU. Do they benefit from shooting up the rankings and have to lose more than others to even out in the end?)

2. St. Mary's - what gives? Their record is impressive but other than 4 nice wins their entire schedule looks like cream puff city. Not much of a non-conference. Are they getting credit for a weak non-conference and for playing in the not so impressive wcc? Will other bball teams follow suit and schedule weak non-cons ala football?

2 very good questions. I want to update a few other things first, but will get back to this.

 

[jncuse]

This is probably the best result. Houston is now deemed an 8.1 seed on the matrix. They are pulling away with a seed at this point and we will soon talking about lock for them rather than bubble. Probably better to sting a team that is hanging below the line Temple

 

[jncuse]

Well this is a good result for us. This one will really sting Nebraska.

They were on track to have a good record, but empty on the good side and 100% clean on the bad side. Now they have a bad loss, which will really hurt them optically.

 

[jncuse]

The bracket matrix has 30 brackets updated today. Where do we now stand? With all the teams winning this week, some other teams that we have not seen on the outskirts of the bubble are now coming back.

(out of 30)
St. Mary's 28
Virginia Tech 28
Miami 27
Providence 27
Texas 27
NC St 27
Kansas St 25
UCLA 24
St Bonaventure 23
Baylor 22
Syracuse 17
------In/out Line------------
Louisville 16
USC 13
Washington 5
Nebraska 3
Penn St 3
LSU 2
Marquette 2
Western Kentucky 2
Temple 2
Boise St 2

Interesting to see that Louisville is now seen as the team that might be out. Washington also seemed to be the team hit with everybody else getting quad one wins around them.

 

[jncuse]

I think this is the first time all year that Palm has Syracuse in. (albeit last one in)

 

[pearl31]

Nebraska losing is really good.
Now we need Purdue to turn this game around in the 2nd half and beat pen st