Tracking the Bracket Matrix throughout the Regular Season

[MSOrange]

Nebraska losing is really good.
Now we need Purdue to turn this game around in the 2nd half and beat pen st

Purdue playing without 3rd leading scorer Vince Edwards but they still need to get out of this funk and be able to beat Penn State at home.

 

[20Plus]

Nebraska losing is really good.
Now we need Purdue to turn this game around in the 2nd half and beat pen st

Purdue hit a three up four under three minutes

 

[jncuse]

I'm interested in your opinions on two questions:

1. So, is this evidence that the ranking system works? In other words, does it all even out at the end? Or do teams like Kentucky benefit from high preseason rankings more than similar teams without all the preseason hype? (Maybe include OU. Do they benefit from shooting up the rankings and have to lose more than others to even out in the end?)

2. St. Mary's - what gives? Their record is impressive but other than 4 nice wins their entire schedule looks like cream puff city. Not much of a non-conference. Are they getting credit for a weak non-conference and for playing in the not so impressive wcc? Will other bball teams follow suit and schedule weak non-cons ala football?

#1. I would say it all evens out. I would say for a while anyway, the committee has not really cared at all about AP rankings. It comes down to the metrics which favour the P5 schools. Is there a bias for P5 schools. Yes the metrics make it easier for them. But within the P5. I would say no. If anything the last time a big blue got really badly seeded it was Kentucky being underseeded in 2014. There is enough data now to separate teams that you don't need to look at AP rankings for example.

Now are the seeds right? They do generally, with some exceptions, select them in line with metrics. But the metrics are so biased by how a conference does before the end of December, that you might not get the teams or conferences that area playing the best. But really what alternative do they have? By January conferences only play each other, so you can't say which one is actually playing best in February for example when they only play each other.

#2. St. Mary's is one of those teams that is hard to compare. The metrics really favour the P5 schools. St. Mary's simply does not have a chance to do welll in Quad One Wins. But it was raised last year, I think by Poppy Hart, do they deserve the benefit of the doubt. A school like Gonzaga does everything it can to play a good schedule, and St. Mary;s I do not think so.

Ultimately you can compare P5 teams by the numbers. But comparing Syracuse to St. Mary's... its apples and oranges. But when you get to teams like St. Mary's it really is the eye test, "rep", and I suspect they consider power ratings.

I will say that small schools are not selected on RPI. For example if Buffalo has a mid 30's RPI, but loses the MAC, they are not going to get an at-large. Not ranked, no rep, and their power rankings are not that good.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

is there a website that cleanly displays team records by quadrant?

 

[jncuse]

It's amusing to hear the BIG announcer say,,,, ignore the numbers, Penn St and Nebraska are NCAA teams.

Unfortunately that is not the way it works. Your conference sucked prior to December 31, and now they are paying for it.

 

[jncuse]

is there a website that cleanly displays team records by quadrant?

Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live 2017-2018 Men's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com

 

[jncuse]

Sorry Penn St, there are no bonus points for close losses. I guess it will help your KP & BPI ratings but not much else.

 

[Orangezoo]

Whew

 

[jncuse]

Whew

I posted my comment a little early... was worried.

 

[20Plus]

Purdue hit a three up four under three minutes

Purdue without their second best player Edwards survives 76-73

 

[MSOrange]

It's amusing to hear the BIG announcer say,,,, ignore the numbers, Penn St and Nebraska are NCAA teams.

Unfortunately that is not the way it works. Your conference sucked prior to December 31, and now they are paying for it.

Crispin, who was the analyst, is a Penn State grad.

 

[Orangezoo]

Sorry Penn St, there are no bonus points for close losses. I guess it will help your KP & BPI ratings but not much else.

Gotta be honest, from the eye test, Penn St has looked legit. Good ball movement, good size , good shooters. Glad their numbers aren't as strong but overall they look like a very dangerous team that belongs.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

FWIW Penn State lost at home to Minnesota and Wisconsin

 

[pearl31]

From the Warren Nolan site:

Miami 37 RPI, Syracuse 38. Those last four columns on the right (to the left of the colored column) are the records vs Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 teams (left to right).
Tied in the Q1 category, Syracuse with 2 more Q2 wins, Syracuse won head to head.

Broad consensus has Miami safely in as 8-9 seed, Syracuse outside looking in.

Hmmmm

 

[SoBeCuse]

Gotta be honest, from the eye test, Penn St has looked legit. Good ball movement, good size , good shooters. Glad their numbers aren't as strong but overall they look like a very dangerous team that belongs.

Will be interesting this year. Eye test VS data. There will be many instances I think where those areas are so far out of alignment. Something will be applied to separate all these teams outside of pure data. This is a crazy year.

But yeah I think Penn St is pretty good as well. If they can beat Michigan coming up then they should be fine for a bid. They swept OSU and have a win against Nebraska. Speaking of OSU...Chris Holtmann has done a GREAT job. Who would’ve thought with that impromptu Matta firing that OSU would be playing like this. I hope Wildhack has some Gene Smith in him.

 

[SoBeCuse]

From the Warren Nolan site:
View attachment 122937

Miami 37 RPI, Syracuse 38. Those last four columns on the right (to the left of the colored column) are the records vs Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 teams (left to right).
Tied in the Q1 category, Syracuse with 2 more Q2 wins, Syracuse won head to head.

Broad consensus has Miami safely in as 8-9 seed, Syracuse outside looking in.

Hmmmm

Good work! If both teams stumble at the end and Louisville too then all three are out, IMO.

 

[Orangezoo]

FWIW Penn State lost at home to Minnesota and Wisconsin

Yeah they were seemingly dead in the water then got hot and were playing great basketball much like we saw tonight.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Yeah they were seemingly dead in the water then got hot and were playing great basketball much like we saw tonight.

cool, but the whole resume is what matters. as cuse found out last year.

thank goodness we don't have a 33 point home loss to st johns on the resume this year.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

From the Warren Nolan site:
View attachment 122937

Miami 37 RPI, Syracuse 38. Those last four columns on the right (to the left of the colored column) are the records vs Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 teams (left to right).
Tied in the Q1 category, Syracuse with 2 more Q2 wins, Syracuse won head to head.

Broad consensus has Miami safely in as 8-9 seed, Syracuse outside looking in.

Hmmmm

Those 3 extra quad 4 wins must be putting them over the top I guess.

 

[pearl31]

Those 3 extra quad 4 wins must be putting them over the top I guess.

lol maybe...
really, though, I think it shows a laziness by the bracketologists out there or inability to keep up with what's really happening in the now - they're still regarding Miami as the Miami of mid January... hopefully the committee doesn't partake in the same laziness

 

[20Plus]

Good work! If both teams stumble at the end and Louisville too then all three are out, IMO.

Yes but there has to be somebody to take their place that deserves the line below of those teams it’s pretty weak pretty fast

 

[JoeySimz]

#1. I would say it all evens out. I would say for a while anyway, the committee has not really cared at all about AP rankings. It comes down to the metrics which favour the P5 schools. Is there a bias for P5 schools. Yes the metrics make it easier for them. But within the P5. I would say no. If anything the last time a big blue got really badly seeded it was Kentucky being underseeded in 2014. There is enough data now to separate teams that you don't need to look at AP rankings for example.

Now are the seeds right? They do generally, with some exceptions, select them in line with metrics. But the metrics are so biased by how a conference does before the end of December, that you might not get the teams or conferences that area playing the best. But really what alternative do they have? By January conferences only play each other, so you can't say which one is actually playing best in February for example when they only play each other.

#2. St. Mary's is one of those teams that is hard to compare. The metrics really favour the P5 schools. St. Mary's simply does not have a chance to do welll in Quad One Wins. But it was raised last year, I think by Poppy Hart, do they deserve the benefit of the doubt. A school like Gonzaga does everything it can to play a good schedule, and St. Mary;s I do not think so.

Ultimately you can compare P5 teams by the numbers. But comparing Syracuse to St. Mary's... its apples and oranges. But when you get to teams like St. Mary's it really is the eye test, "rep", and I suspect they consider power ratings.

I will say that small schools are not selected on RPI. For example if Buffalo has a mid 30's RPI, but loses the MAC, they are not going to get an at-large. Not ranked, no rep, and their power rankings are not that good.

Thanks for the thorough response and for taking the time! I really appreciate it as well as all of your other updates! I agree about Gonzaga and St. Mary's. It will be interesting to see what kind of seed they get compared to some P5 teams.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Yes but there has to be somebody to take their place that deserves the line below of those teams it’s pretty weak pretty fast

For sure. RPI isn’t everything as well. They look at tons of metrics including all the efficiency numbers as well.

 

[Orangezoo]

cool, but the whole resume is what matters. as cuse found out last year.

thank goodness we don't have a 33 point home loss to st johns on the resume this year.

Easy there.. not waiving any blue and white Pom poms. If you watched their last 6 games and saw how well they played and then watched us struggle through a number of games offensively it would be easy to make a case based on the eye test. As I noted above already, lucky for us there is a lot more to it.

 

[jncuse]

Good point re, Miami Pearl.

But there are a decent amount on the matrix starting to analyze them more appropriately.

3 of the 30 in today have them out.
10 of the 30 have them on the 11 line.