Tracking the Bracket Matrix throughout the Regular Season

[jncuse]

Zero chance a 14-4 b10 conference record gets left out

Just remember that 14-4 is meaningless by itself. Now usually 14-4 will be quite fruitful for a P5 team in terms of getting quality wins. But not for Nebraska.

I don't have the numbers to confirm, but I would strongly suspect that no P5 team has ever received an at large without a top tier win... in this case a Quad 1 win (before this year a top 50 win).

What will I suspect get them over the top is they have avoid any bad losses (q3 or q4) if they get to that 14-4 mark.

But if you are more comfortable stating zero chance on a number that is not looked at, sure.

 

[jncuse]

Pac12 and the AAC have the relevant games tonight.

10th last in Houston - Thurs vs Cincinnati (Quad 1)
Last in USC - Thurs vs Oregon (Quad 3)
5th Last in UCLA - Thurs vs Oregon St (Quad 3)
3rd last in Washington - Thurs vs Utah (Quad 2)
3rd team out Temple - Thurs at Wichita St (Quad 1)

Temple up 27-19, with 29 minutes to go. Houston down 11 early vs Cincy. How good a team is Cincy? If they win our could an AAC team get a #1 seed.

Later tonight, we need one of those P12 teams to lose a home game. If Washington loses they will be falling out like us.

 

[jncuse]

Another one of those crazy nights (although not all have bubble implications)

#5 Cincy losing at Houston
#6 Purdue tied with lowly Wisconsin
#8 Ohio St losing at Penn St
#19 Wichita St losing at home vs Temple

The one that would sting us the most is the Temple win. If Houston pulls it out they would be in extremely good shape. Penn St would still have some real work to do, but they would be closer to the outer fringes.

EDIT FOR RESULTS:

Houston and Wisconsin do end up pulling off the upset. Houston can have quickly fell back to the back with a loss here and then one bad AAC loss. But this will take them off current bubble range.

Wichita St does hold off Temple.

Penn St up 24 at the half against Ohio St.

So it looks like #5, #6 and #8 lose tonight.

 

[pearl31]

The Temple loss is a good result for us.

 

[MikeDamone]

Just remember that 14-4 is meaningless by itself. Now usually 14-4 will be quite fruitful for a P5 team in terms of getting quality wins. But not for Nebraska.

I don't have the numbers to confirm, but I would strongly suspect that no P5 team has ever received an at large without a top tier win... in this case a Quad 1 win (before this year a top 50 win).

What will I suspect get them over the top is they have avoid any bad losses (q3 or q4) if they get to that 14-4 mark.

But if you are more comfortable stating zero chance on a number that is not looked at, sure.

Zero chance they get left out at 14-4. Zero. You can talk q1, q2, q100. Doesn't matter. They would be in

 

[pearl31]

Zero chance they get left out at 14-4. Zero. You can talk q1, q2, q100. Doesn't matter. They would be in

YOUR BLUSTER SHALL MAKE IT SO

 

[jncuse]

Washington, like us, will be on the outside looking in after tonight. And like us it could be that Hopkins like JB has maxed out what he could get from their team.

Not counting either team out quite yet, I suspect they will both have a hard time getting back in.

 

[jncuse]

Let's go Ducks.

 

[jncuse]

Zero chance they get left out at 14-4. Zero. You can talk q1, q2, q100. Doesn't matter. They would be in

What about 13-5?

 

[20Plus]

View attachment 122657

Let's go Ducks.

It seems USC is higher up obviously then Oregon but how far down is Oregon as this would be a quad one road win ?

 

[20Plus]

It seems USC is higher up obviously then Oregon but how far down is Oregon as this would be a quad one road win ?

I see 74 ken Pom

 

[jncuse]

It seems USC is higher up obviously then Oregon but how far down is Oregon as this would be a quad one road win ?

True enough.. this could be the trigger to get Oregon back on track.

But it looks like Oregon will blow it down the stretch,

 

[jncuse]

Ref trying to be star of the game again. Calls the crucial offensive foul.

 

[jncuse]

Great winning play by USC.

 

[Nicknack]

Hey, jncuse - just wanted to throw out a thanks for the work that you do breaking things down this time of the year. Although, I really wish we didn't have to be concerned with bubble talk! You definitely know your stuff, you showed that particularly the year before last when many doubted what you were saying. Keep up the good work -

 

[MikeDamone]

YOUR BLUSTER SHALL MAKE IT SO

You still think that Wake loss wasn't a bad loss?

 

[MikeDamone]

What about 13-5?

Moving the goalposts

 

[jncuse]

Moving the goalposts

No. Since you are making your assessments purely based on the face value of conference records, and are self admittedly ignoring all other metrics, I am just wondering what is the conference record that you think is likely good enough to get in.

 

[MSOrange]

USC loses a double digit scorer

Trojans' Boatwright (knee) out for season

 

[SoBeCuse]

USC loses a double digit scorer

Trojans' Boatwright (knee) out for season

That’s a big loss.

 

[MikeDamone]

No. Since you are making your assessments purely based on the face value of conference records, and are self admittedly ignoring all other metrics, I am just wondering what is the conference record that you think is likely good enough to get in.

14-4 is good enough

 

[jncuse]

The matrix is now relatively up to date after our loss. Of the 74 brackets, only 3 are prior to the NC ST game

In terms of 74 brackets

Louisville 71
Virginia Tech 69
Kansas St 65
NC St 65 (See impact of big win,,, they were first team out before playing us)
UCLA 62
Texas 60 (Free falling)
USC 44
Baylor 40 (Nowhere last week at this time, and win over Kansas and win at Texas)
-----------------
Washington 35
Syracuse 21
St. Bonaventure 17
Nebraska 9
Temple 8
Boise St 7
Penn St 5
Utah 5


A few new teams on the watch now in Penn St and Utah.

Penn St -
RPI 74,
Quad 1, 2-4 (Two wins over Ohio St)
Quad 2, 2-3.
Non Conf SOS - #250, zero quad 1 and quad 2 OOC wins,
IMO - They have win 2 of their 3 last 3 games (which are all quality games) and get at least 1 quality win in B10 tourney to get in conversation

 

[MSOrange]

Bracketology Bubble Watch: Louisville, Texas and Syracuse have work to do

 

[jncuse]

I am travelling this weekend. So no time for any detailed schedule. The link above is good.

But the few minute synopsis is this. Two conferences dominate the bubble right now — the ACC and the pac 12.

1. Today’s acc games are extremely interesting. All of Syracuse, Louisville, vtech, and nc at could win or lose. Road games are never easy... even at Georgia tech or wake.

2. The pac 12 games seem more one sided. 3 bobble teams should all win home games and one should win on the road in Utah.

3. Texas tech vs Baylor. Baylor is just in . They need to lose this home game as it is a quad one chance.

 

[jncuse]

Cue the new bubble talk in this board for Syracuse. Yes our chances get hurt a fair amount when we lose like Ncst ... but the it’s over dramatics need to stop.