What I'd like to see (Guards edition)

[billsin01]

How about a little discussion of what we'd like to see from the new guys and returnees on the roster this year. Obviously this would fall into the category of mostly meaning speculation, but might be a good topic. I'll follow up with forwards/bigs at some point as well. But I'll make the attempt here to discuss who we've got and what I'd like to see in a rational way (i.e. JJ isn't likely to pull a senior year Kemba, etc.).

JJ Starling
What I'd like to see: JJ to become a more instinctive player -- a player effectively leverages his athleticism.

JJ's numbers were fine last year -- there's a lot of good players who won't average 13 ppg at a high-major level in their careers. He also did that after coming off a significant injury. But JJ's numbers were a bit hollow. As much as people hated Judah's foul-bating, JJ was the exact opposite. He got to the line just 1.6 times/game in conference play. That's an amazingly low number for a guy who played 34 mpg as a guard. He also dished out just 1.2 assists/game (ACC only) ... yes, yes, I know, that was all Judah's fault, but consider that's half of what Brown dished out. He limited turnovers, which is great, but I feel like part of that was a lack of aggressiveness offensively. Defensively he was nothing short of dreadful. Again, weird considering he's a kid who plays hard and has good size and athleticism. He had about as many steals in ACC play as Taylor, who played 15 mpg less. His ball-handling was OK, but not inspiring.

Add that all up and I'm less concerned this season about JJ taking a jump from 13 ppg to something like 17 or 18 and more concerned with his becoming a player who helps us in all facets of the game. He's almost certainly going to have the ball in his hands more -- so his ball-handling and creation are going to be tested. He's going to play a bunch and we have to be better defensively -- JJ will need to leverage that athleticism and be a factor on this side of the ball. He has to take more chances. Love to see him be more aggressive getting to his midrange. Just think he's got to be a more well-rounded player as he's likely to lead the team in minutes played.

Jaquan Carlos
What I'd like to see: An ability to finish in some crafty ways in traffic

I don't feel like there's a whole lot of question that Carlos can play at this level in some form or fashion. The question seems to be more about whether he'll start and play significant minutes (25-30) or be a rotation guy off the bench. The answer lies in his ability to compensate for his lack of size at this level -- can his quickness give him a chance to hang defensively? Offensively, we know he's a decent, not great shooter. Good ball-handler, experienced at running an offense, and a good passer -- averaged more than 6 assists a game.

But will he be really limited at a scorer at this level? He shot 41% from the floor last year and attempted just 283 FGs overall. Decent number, but not a ton. About 1-1.5 more FG attempts than Q in like 12-13 minutes more per game. His 74 FTs attempted (89%) are a decent number, but not a big number by any means.

So this is a kid who's gotten better every year in college, has a ton of experience, and can obviously play a little bit, but my guess is he'll have a much bigger role if he proves that he's a capable finisher on whatever opportunities he has in transition or in the paint. Might take a bit of time, not unlike John Gillon.

Lucas Taylor
What I'd like to see: A guy who makes an impact with his athleticism on both ends

Taylor is another interesting piece. Hard to know how real the numbers are -- did nothing at Wake for 2 years, transfers down a level and is really productive with a few odd numbers. Usage rate was 25.2%, a pretty high number, and he committed almost 4 fouls/game -- Maliq Brown was at 3.0/game and was far and away the player who committed the most fouls for us last season. So that's a big number for Taylor.

I just thought watching his film that you saw a guy who likes to attack the rim, can get to his pull-up game and can even hound people a bit on the defensive end. Just hard to tell if that will finally translate for him at this level. To me Taylor is a bit of an all or nothing guy -- either the athleticism is real, he's gained confidence and learned how to get himself on the floor and make an impact ... or those numbers and production are a function of the competition level and he could get squeezed out by Cuffe and/or Moore. Tough to tell.

Kyle Cuffe Jr.
What I'd like to see: An in-shape Cuffe after a healthy off-season

Cuffe feels like a guy who has been written off to a large extent and I'm not sure I agree with it. He could well be on the fringes this season if Carlos and Taylor prove key additions and/or Westry/Moore exceed expectations (we'll get to Westry both). But Cuffe, to me, is an interesting one because he clearly has athleticism and swag. The latter quality seems superfluous at times and can even be frustrating, but watching JJ shooting early last season or Justin Taylor on offense all year, you realize it's important for guys to believe they belong and to believe they can make plays. Cuffe has that.

I also saw flashes of a guy who could be a tough defender. Anticipates changes of direction really well, moves his feet, quick hands, and a powerful frame despite on the smaller side. He's always going to be a bit of a tweener and the odds may be against him a bit on this particular roster, but if he is really tough on defense and he can build off of his first healthy season in two years last season, I think there's a chance for him to remain a key piece of our game rotation. I'd be a bit surprised but not shocked if he's able to eat into minutes many of us think are going to the other guards not named JJ Starling.

Chance Westry
What I'd like to see: Good health

Honestly, if Westry is able to practice and get on the floor for a few minutes, that's awesome. Not putting any other expectations on him. I just don't see how we could or how that would be fair. If someone else knows more about the situation and thinks Westry is poised to make a run at an all-acc selection, I'd be thrilled to be wrong, but just tough to make any sort of prediction based on what little we know publicly about what's gone on the past couple years.

Elijah Moore
What I'd like to see: Shooting translating from high school

It's not a given that a great high school shooter is going to just hit the ground running at the next level. I also saw a stat at one point near the end of Moore's senior season that he was shooting like 35-36% from three for the year. So, while I'm not concerned about his potential to be a good player here, I just am not sure it will happen in Year 1 with a lot of names fighting for time at guard.

But, Red said Moore has been playing well and again, a kid with swag who believes he can contribute, can sometimes emerge very quickly. There are other questions that could emerge here -- not sure how well he handles the ball, may need to add some muscle, not sure what his defense looks like -- but I would imagine if Moore is a dynamic offensive presence, he could factor in.

 

[Niastri]

One thing I liked while watching Jaquan Carlos highlights was his decision making.

Even while at Hofstra, he knew he wasn't able to finish under the basket against big men ready to challenge his shot. Often, instead of attempting an acrobatic shot doomed to get blocked, he wouldn't pick up his dribble, continued through the paint and eventually find the teammate who came open during his dribble penetration.

I remember how frustrating it was watching God Shammgod dribble through our defense all game long, even if he didn't shoot it. Carlos reminded me a little of that in some of his highlights. He just kept moving until he could get somebody a shot.

Can he do that at the next level? It's hard to say, but he had a few nice highlights playing against Duke last year. He went for 10 points and 9 assists against them with only 3 turnovers. He missed all 3 of his threes attempted. Then again, it's hard to get excited about stats he put up during a 21 point loss.

If you count the AAC as a major conference, Carlos also had a great game against 25-8 South Florida, getting a double double, 11 and 10 with 2 TO. Hofstra won this game.

Hofstra didn't play many good teams, though. The only other decent basketball teams Hofstra played were 24-5 Princeton (11 and 9, 4 TO) and, I don't know, 20-13 St John's (10 and 4, 3 TO).

Not a lot to go on.

 

[hoopsupstate]

If what I’m seeing and hearing about Carlos is true, we’re lucky to have him. Heady, smart point guards who know HOW and WHEN to get teammates the ball when they’re open are not easy to find today with so many combo guards. The fact that he can put pressure on other guards is something that’s being overlooked. I don’t usually travel a couple of hours to come to an exhibition game, but I’m looking forward to checking out all the new pieces to this team on Saturday. Give me a TEAM that moves the ball and plays unselfishly any day over a team that just pounds the ball and goes isolation. This team has a lot of parts with finally ACC size up front and a bunch of wing players. The toughest part for Red is fitting all these pieces together and balancing playing time. Offensively, I think this team can be pretty good. I hope to see some aggression on defense and having a team attitude to “wanting to“ stop people. Rebounding can only be better this year. It appears we have some physicality and toughness this year. I also want to see some balance in our transition defense and a point guard who’s not the last player back on defense.

 

[stuckinbig11]

Thanks, Steve.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Nice, balanced write-up. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I agree about Cuffe. I think he had his moments last year, and I think he could help us. He and Carlos are kind of similar players; guys who keep the ball moving, PGs on the smaller side, and don't hunt their own shots.

If JJ is as bad defensively, and as unable as a facilitator, and not that great driving the ball to the rim, and doesn't get to the line, then on this team, he won't have to play 35 minutes a game. He'll be lucky to get 25.

Everyone knows I don't think he's nearly as bad a player as the rest of you do. In fact, I think he is going to be the key guy on this team this year.

But let's accept everyone's concerns. If JJ underperforms, where will those extra minutes go? If he's not making threes, then Moore or Taylor will get some of his minutes, whoever is playing best among them.

If we need someone to run half-court offense and JJ isn't getting it done in the minutes that he is the only PG on the court, then Carlos and Cuffe are competing for those minutes, and with Carlos already in the rotation, actually that means that Cuffe, and maybe eventually Westry, will eat into JJ's minutes.

Carlos is going to start, we pretty much know that now. So, whether he plays 20 minutes or 30 depends on (a) how good is JJ at PG, (b) how good is Cuffe at PG, (c) can Westry be a secondary ball handler from the SF spot, like Copeland was, and (d) is Carlos a threat offensively; does the other team have to cover him from three?

There are quite a few unknowns in this group, but I think it's going to come together. You have enough guys who appear to be pretty good, so that a rotation emerges from among them by January, and it won't be a weakness of the team.

 

[billsin01]

One thing I liked while watching Jaquan Carlos highlights was his decision making.

Even while at Hofstra, he knew he wasn't able to finish under the basket against big men ready to challenge his shot. Often, instead of attempting an acrobatic shot doomed to get blocked, he wouldn't pick up his dribble, continued through the paint and eventually find the teammate who came open during his dribble penetration.

I remember how frustrating it was watching God Shammgod dribble through our defense all game long, even if he didn't shoot it. Carlos reminded me a little of that in some of his highlights. He just kept moving until he could get somebody a shot.

Can he do that at the next level? It's hard to say, but he had a few nice highlights playing against Duke last year. He went for 10 points and 9 assists against them with only 3 turnovers. He missed all 3 of his threes attempted. Then again, it's hard to get excited about stats he put up during a 21 point loss.

If you count the AAC as a major conference, Carlos also had a great game against 25-8 South Florida, getting a double double, 11 and 10 with 2 TO. Hofstra won this game.

Hofstra didn't play many good teams, though. The only other decent basketball teams Hofstra played were 24-5 Princeton (11 and 9, 4 TO) and, I don't know, 20-13 St John's (10 and 4, 3 TO).

Not a lot to go on.

I'll give you a like for the Shammgod reference alone. lol. But yeah, I just find it hard to know without seeing it first-hand and how Carlos fits here. Will be interesting to watch.

 

[billsin01]

Nice, balanced write-up. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I agree about Cuffe. I think he had his moments last year, and I think he could help us. He and Carlos are kind of similar players; guys who keep the ball moving, PGs on the smaller side, and don't hunt their own shots.

If JJ is as bad defensively, and as unable as a facilitator, and not that great driving the ball to the rim, and doesn't get to the line, then on this team, he won't have to play 35 minutes a game. He'll be lucky to get 25.

Everyone knows I don't think he's nearly as bad a player as the rest of you do. In fact, I think he is going to be the key guy on this team this year.

But let's accept everyone's concerns. If JJ underperforms, where will those extra minutes go? If he's not making threes, then Moore or Taylor will get some of his minutes, whoever is playing best among them.

If we need someone to run half-court offense and JJ isn't getting it done in the minutes that he is the only PG on the court, then Carlos and Cuffe are competing for those minutes, and with Carlos already in the rotation, actually that means that Cuffe, and maybe eventually Westry, will eat into JJ's minutes.

Carlos is going to start, we pretty much know that now. So, whether he plays 20 minutes or 30 depends on (a) how good is JJ at PG, (b) how good is Cuffe at PG, (c) can Westry be a secondary ball handler from the SF spot, like Copeland was, and (d) is Carlos a threat offensively; does the other team have to cover him from three?

There are quite a few unknowns in this group, but I think it's going to come together. You have enough guys who appear to be pretty good, so that a rotation emerges from among them by January, and it won't be a weakness of the team.

So a couple of things here:

1) Absolutely agree on it being great to have options. I guess what remains to be seen is do we have a bunch of solid, viable options with varying skill sets or does this feel like rearranging deck chairs every time we go to the bench? I'm leaning toward the former -- several viable options -- but I just feel like it's hard to know just yet.

2) I actually thought JJ had a solid year all-in last season. Love his mid-range pick-up game and hope we see him get to that more this season. Last year's team desperately needed guys who could put the ball in the basket and JJ was decent at that most of the season and from 1/16 (at Pitt) to 2/17 at Ga Tech -- he actually averaged 18 ppg. So he did some nice things. I hope that my critique is a bit more nuanced -- I just see him as a guy who needs to leverage that athleticism more. Take those opportunities to drive to the hoop when available, seek out that contact a bit more, make the most of transition opportunities, anticipate and gamble a bit more on defense. Just let that athleticism take over at times. It likely comes with more fouls and turnovers, but if that's the tradeoff for a more dynamic player at both ends, it seems like a good trade.

 

[ar inj]

Great write-ul

 

[SoBristol]

Nice post and good discussion. Will be interesting to revisit this after the 2 exhibitions and Lemoyne, when we have some genuine observations.

With the composition of the team this year, in contrast to what we had in 23-24, the guards should be getting the ball to the post and the PF - to make plays for and assist the bigs. And of course getting the ball to Bell, our one elite shooter. We expect Carlos to be good at that - which of the other guards can? We aren’t going to be a guard dominated dribble drive team.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Nice post and good discussion. Will be interesting to revisit this after the 2 exhibitions and Lemoyne, when we have some genuine observations.

With the composition of the team this year, in contrast to what we had in 23-24, the guards should be getting the ball to the post and the PF - to make plays for and assist the bigs. And of course getting the ball to Bell, our one elite shooter. We expect Carlos to be good at that - which of the other guards can? We aren’t going to be a guard dominated dribble drive team.

I think Bell's percentage from 3 is going to come down a bit this year, because defenses will be more focused on stopping him, and he hasn't really shown that he can make a one-or-two dribble move to create space for his shot yet.

While he is a terrific shooter, don't sleep on Moore, Freeman, Petar or JJ. I think they all are going to be pretty viable shooters from three - good enough that other teams are going to have to cover them at the line.

And that should create a lot of space for the low post guys inside. This team has a lot of the right parts. I'm very excited for this season. I finally feel like we have the chance to be a legit Top 25 team again this season.

 

[SoBristol]

I think Bell's percentage from 3 is going to come down a bit this year, because defenses will be more focused on stopping him, and he hasn't really shown that he can make a one-or-two dribble move to create space for his shot yet.

While he is a terrific shooter, don't sleep on Moore, Freeman, Petar or JJ. I think they all are going to be pretty viable shooters from three - good enough that other teams are going to have to cover them at the line.

And that should create a lot of space for the low post guys inside. This team has a lot of the right parts. I'm very excited for this season. I finally feel like we have the chance to be a legit Top 25 team again this season.

I was focusing more on which guards could feed Freeman and Lampkin than on which can supplement Bell from the 3 point line.

I expect Bell will expand his skills - make some dribble moves to shoot or even finish. Actually, I expect Bell, Lucas Taylor and Cuffe to make nice year over year improvements - the first two getting stronger and Cuffe getting into better shape. We will have to see how Red works Taylor and Cuffe into the rotation. Red has said Moore is good and will play.

 

[billsin01]

I was focusing more on which guards could feed Freeman and Lampkin than on which can supplement Bell from the 3 point line.

I expect Bell will expand his skills - make some dribble moves to shoot or even finish. Actually, I expect Bell, Lucas Taylor and Cuffe to make nice year over year improvements - the first two getting stronger and Cuffe getting into better shape. We will have to see how Red works Taylor and Cuffe into the rotation. Red has said Moore is good and will play.

I think Bell's has genuine ability to go from 'shooter' to 'scorer' this year. I'm not sure it's in the way we think of that type of player most often -- i.e. putting the ball on the deck and creating regularly. But if they can get him moving off-ball, coming off screens, lurking on the baseline some, getting out in transition ... I think he can already score on more than just threes. That pump-fake, one-dribble pullup; that turnaround on the baseline, a few different ways to score on the break. Feel like those are in his game, just a matter of tapping into them more regularly and movement off-ball is the big key there.

Now, that said, what Bell does outside of shooting and scoring remains to be seen. Not sure it's worth holding your breath over his becoming an above-average defender or rebounder. Not sure he'll be much of a passer. But any improvement in those areas would be welcome, particularly on a team that may have a lot of guys competing for mins. If Bell wants to be at +/- 30 mpg, he is going to have to broaden that offensive game and do a little more to become a well-rounded shooter. It's not so much that his shooting isn't valuable -- it obviously is -- but if we believe the reports that Taylor and Cuffe could be factors and that Moore will be, then things get very crowded in general with guys like Starling, Carlos, Freeman, Davis and Lampkin already being penciled in for real minutes and a guy like Majstorovic potentially playing as well.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Waiting for your next two installments!

 

[SmilinBob]

I was focusing more on which guards could feed Freeman and Lampkin than on which can supplement Bell from the 3 point line.

I expect Bell will expand his skills - make some dribble moves to shoot or even finish. Actually, I expect Bell, Lucas Taylor and Cuffe to make nice year over year improvements - the first two getting stronger and Cuffe getting into better shape. We will have to see how Red works Taylor and Cuffe into the rotation. Red has said Moore is good and will play.

Regarding Bell. I'm curious on how much he's going to move to get open. Last year he spotted up and really didn't move much but this year I'm thinking he's going to move more and with a good PG they will find him.

For Cuffe, maybe Red would go 3 guard with him, JJ and one of the PG's on occasion due to Cuffes athleticism to cover a 3?

It's going to be an interesting year to see how Red plugs and plays.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Regarding Bell. I'm curious on how much he's going to move to get open. Last year he spotted up and really didn't move much but this year I'm thinking he's going to move more and with a good PG they will find him.

For Cuffe, maybe Red would go 3 guard with him, JJ and one of the PG's on occasion due to Cuffes athleticism to cover a 3?

It's going to be an interesting year to see how Red plugs and plays.

That's a key with Bell, good observation. If he moves more without the ball, runs off some screens, he'll be open more.

As for Cuffe & JJ, I think that's a good combination, and then you match them with a wing who can dribble and shoot the three - could be Moore, Lucas Taylor or ???

 

[Niastri]

That's a key with Bell, good observation. If he moves more without the ball, runs off some screens, he'll be open more.

As for Cuffe & JJ, I think that's a good combination, and then you match them with a wing who can dribble and shoot the three - could be Moore, Lucas Taylor or ???

On the note of "Bell should run off screens more" to get open... Last year he had little guys like Brown and Taylor setting his screens. This year he'll have Lampkin, McLeod, Davis and Freeman setting his screens.

He'll be open more this year.

 

[IthacaMatt]

On the note of "Bell should run off screens more" to get open... Last year he had little guys like Brown and Taylor setting his screens. This year he'll have Lampkin, McLeod, Davis and Freeman setting his screens.

He'll be open more

To be honest, it took Red a couple months to get them to start running some motion in the half court. Bell wasn't running off picks at all until about February.

 

[billsin01]

To be honest, it took Red a couple months to get them to start running some motion in the half court. Bell wasn't running off picks at all until about February.

Yeah, I agree with this assessment. You also have to set up a screen and time your run. Bell is a kid who camped out and shot threes most of his career. At least, that’s my assumption based on how he’s played for two years and from watching my fair share of AAU hoops.

I don’t think the other parts of basketball come as naturally when that’s your foundation. Hope to see significant improvement there, not only from Bell, but from Red and co., in terms of designed movement. It did look better in feb. So I have to assume we’ll see more of that.

 

[tptcuse]

On the note of "Bell should run off screens more" to get open... Last year he had little guys like Brown and Taylor setting his screens. This year he'll have Lampkin, McLeod, Davis and Freeman setting his screens.

He'll be open more this year.

And from the ACC media day interview, Bell worked on shooting off screens a ton in the offseason.

 

[General20]

I'll be the contrary viewpoint here. I think Bell should continue to just hang out behind the 3 point line and shoot standstill jumpshots.

I understand it would be amazing if he could become like Steph Curry and continue to shoot 43% from 3 while also running defenses ragged, but it's really hard to do that, and not many people can efficiently.

Why fix something that isn't broken? I think Bell can lead the team in scoring and be an all conference player just shooting the shots he did last year because teams are going to have to cover him with smaller guys who he is really good at shooting over, and because this team will be better at getting him the ball when he should have it.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I'll be the contrary viewpoint here. I think Bell should continue to just hang out behind the 3 point line and shoot standstill jumpshots.

I understand it would be amazing if he could become like Steph Curry and continue to shoot 43% from 3 while also running defenses ragged, but it's really hard to do that, and not many people can efficiently.

Why fix something that isn't broken? I think Bell can lead the team in scoring and be an all conference player just shooting the shots he did last year because teams are going to have to cover him with smaller guys who he is really good at shooting over, and because this team will be better at getting him the ball when he should have it.

Because he's going to face more defensive attention this year.
When somebody is closing out on him, he has to be able to take a dribble or two to lose the defender and then get off his shot.

He doesn't have to run all over like Steph Curry because he's not a guard. He just needs to have a quick short move to create space. Like guys using a jab step when they are closely guarded out by the 3 point line.

 

[billsin01]

I'll be the contrary viewpoint here. I think Bell should continue to just hang out behind the 3 point line and shoot standstill jumpshots.

I understand it would be amazing if he could become like Steph Curry and continue to shoot 43% from 3 while also running defenses ragged, but it's really hard to do that, and not many people can efficiently.

Why fix something that isn't broken? I think Bell can lead the team in scoring and be an all conference player just shooting the shots he did last year because teams are going to have to cover him with smaller guys who he is really good at shooting over, and because this team will be better at getting him the ball when he should have it.

Fair points. My thought is he’s going to draw attention. A little movement would help free things up for others. Also think he could broaden his range of scoring plays — work that baseline a little, one-dribble pull-up, run the floor in transition.

I mean he’s clearly a shooter above all else, but I think he could genuinely be a pretty good scorer in general. Like a not quite as well-rounded shumpert