Data was posted awhile back, and here is the helicopter view summary. About 70% of replacement coaches over a multi-decade period of time, replacing successful predecessors at high major programs fail to perform to the level of their predecessor.
Please note -- that is not the predecessor at their best, just where the program is when the entrenched head coach steps down.
Now, think about how that applies to where we are. We've averaged 13.85 losses over an eight year span. We had a losing record last season, and could be staring down the barrel of another challenging season. We've failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament twice in that 8 years span, and probably wouldn't a third time if the college season hadn't gotten cancelled due to COVID in 2020.
And from that "norm," we have a 70% chance of the replacement not performing up to that level.
Which is why it would be insane to hand the keys over to a completely unproven commodity like Red or GMac, that no other team has been interested in hiring.
A much more strategic approach would be to do everything we need to do to maximize our chances of being in the ~30% who DO exceed the level of performance when they take over, and don't fail. We don't have time to "see what anyone can do" -- we've already declined.
