What is the long play in CFB?

[Newhouser]

I've long believed that the end game is that class attendance is voluntary (spelled "forbidden") for the players in an entity outside the NCAA for football, both basketball teams, and possibly baseball/softball. There will be something like 20-32 teams chosen from the bluebloods, and there will be surprises among which schools aren't chosen and which opt out. The remaining schools will be in a situation somewhere between what we have now and FCS, with a number of FBS schools returning to FCS because the money will no longer be there. It will be a mixed bag of which "have-nots" are willing to play the minor-leaguers as OOC games for the money and those who choose never to play teams of non-students.

Some of the teams will be owned by the schools just as the Universities in Mexico City (Pumas) and Nuevo Laredo (Tigres) own teams of non-students in the top league of Mexican soccer and some of them will be owned by private entities who will pay rights fees to the universities to have everything seen on game days now. For the fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and LSU (as examples), what they experience today will be what they seamlessly experience in the future league.

I can't wait for the reporting on the conversations where current Big 10 and SEC members are told that their out.

 

[Hoo's That]

I can't wait for the reporting on the conversations where current Big 10 and SEC members are told that their out.

We already know that Northwestern and Vanderbilt will opt out. Like you said, the fun will be watching the reactions of the uninvited who had already packed their bags. "The Commissioner wants to see you, and bring your playbook."

 

[Cusefan0307]

Based on the board the end game was suppose to happen this offseason.

 

[Cusefan69]

It's also a matter of water access too. The best thing going for the rust belt is proximity to fresh water. I think long term it helps the Big 10 the most (at least the original corridor) and may be a lifeline for western NY too. water rights will be a massive issue over the next 10 to 30 years, especially for data center build outs and cooling projects. Honestly building data centers in Texas right now without some major breakthroughs in cooling technology or water agreements from a northern state is foolish IMO.

One hundred percent agree. Just look also at all the down state water rights issues happening out west from Idaho to Colorado, western Nebraska, Nevada, Arizona and California. In the Northwest they just found a huge aquifer underground roughly the size of Lake Mead. Underground water rights will also be huge .
Sorry all, didn't mean to get off topic, just was thinking climate could have some implications related to football decisions in the not so distant future.

 

[HtownOrange]

The next sequence of contract renewals goes Big10, Big12, Sec and then ACC. My guess is the Big 12 is potentially in for a rude awakening. Fox is not losing control of their main asset the B10. I could see them siphoning off funds that would have been for Big12 to help cover the increase for Big10. Once that happens, a few schools may get absorbed from the Big12 into Sec and B10. ESPN will have to do the same for the SEC, further hurting B12. Behind the scenes negotiations will be happening with ACC schools starting in 2033 and at that point programs will make leaps to B10 and SEC. I think Syracuse gets an invite to one of them because they will help fill area divisions for both B10 and SEC. Funds from dead B12 and ACC will help buffer those SEC and B10 additions. Side note: once southerners see their climate getting hotter and hotter and more volatile, I sincerely believe you will see people moving up north into northern states. It's not happening now but I think we will see it happen 10 years from now. This isn't a political statement, just a science statement by the way.

The north offers a lot of advantages for manufacturing and growing. The big issue is the tax burden of the north v. the south, which I . I am one who does not think the north will die off (which works for the B1G), though I expect the south to continue to grow (which works for the SEC). Both points work for the ACC, or at least key teams in the ACC.

 

[HtownOrange]

We already know that Northwestern and Vanderbilt will opt out. Like you said, the fun will be watching the reactions of the uninvited who had already packed their bags. "The Commissioner wants to see you, and bring your playbook."

If you are right, Rutgers will be the first to go. Northwestern and Vandy likely pack their lockers and go out on their terms, sort of.

 

[HtownOrange]

I've long believed that the end game is that class attendance is voluntary (spelled "forbidden") for the players in an entity outside the NCAA for football, both basketball teams, and possibly baseball/softball. There will be something like 20-32 teams chosen from the bluebloods, and there will be surprises among which schools aren't chosen and which opt out. The remaining schools will be in a situation somewhere between what we have now and FCS, with a number of FBS schools returning to FCS because the money will no longer be there. It will be a mixed bag of which "have-nots" are willing to play the minor-leaguers as OOC games for the money and those who choose never to play teams of non-students.

Some of the teams will be owned by the schools just as the Universities in Mexico City (Pumas) and Nuevo Laredo (Tigres) own teams of non-students in the top league of Mexican soccer and some of them will be owned by private entities who will pay rights fees to the universities to have everything seen on game days now. For the fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and LSU (as examples), what they experience today will be what they seamlessly experience in the future league.

You've been consistent in this theory of the end game. Though I am not convinced, it is a viable option. How do you see the above happening with regards to Title IX, NIL, etc.?

And for fun, the bonus question:

Who are your surprises to stay academically focused and who gets invited to the fantasy college sports league?

I would not be surprised if Michigan stays with the academics, likewise; UCLA, Northwestern (as if they have a choice), USC, Vandy (of course). I think Georgia, TAMU and UT have to think about it but stay with the money.

If this does happen, there may remain enough money for a solid league with traditional student athletes to warrant separate coverage. Also, if this happens, none of them should play the fantasy college sports league.

 

[HtownOrange]

One hundred percent agree. Just look also at all the down state water rights issues happening out west from Idaho to Colorado, western Nebraska, Nevada, Arizona and California. In the Northwest they just found a huge aquifer underground roughly the size of Lake Mead. Underground water rights will also be huge .
Sorry all, didn't mean to get off topic, just was thinking climate could have some implications related to football decisions in the not so distant future.

You are right to look to the future, shipping is a huge matter in manufacture. Also, distance is a matter. The plains are great for growing but if it weren't for rivers, shipping the grains and meats would be very, very expensive.

As you note the mountains and west are hurting for water. Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, all have water issues. Their climates are not suitable for the growth they have seen and water will always remain a problem.

The south can be hot and miserable, though I prefer it over the cold winters.

California can fix their water issues if they want to. NIMBY sucks but it must go for the sake of the people. I have little sympathy for California, as long as they elect imbeciles who neglect their duties they get what they deserve. This isn't a left/right issue as everyone needs water, there are plenty of good ... and bad ... people on both sides of the proverbial aisle just not enough good yet to fix the issues. The wild fires are about to correct that matter.