What is the long play in CFB?

[Newhouser]

I've long believed that the end game is that class attendance is voluntary (spelled "forbidden") for the players in an entity outside the NCAA for football, both basketball teams, and possibly baseball/softball. There will be something like 20-32 teams chosen from the bluebloods, and there will be surprises among which schools aren't chosen and which opt out. The remaining schools will be in a situation somewhere between what we have now and FCS, with a number of FBS schools returning to FCS because the money will no longer be there. It will be a mixed bag of which "have-nots" are willing to play the minor-leaguers as OOC games for the money and those who choose never to play teams of non-students.

Some of the teams will be owned by the schools just as the Universities in Mexico City (Pumas) and Nuevo Laredo (Tigres) own teams of non-students in the top league of Mexican soccer and some of them will be owned by private entities who will pay rights fees to the universities to have everything seen on game days now. For the fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and LSU (as examples), what they experience today will be what they seamlessly experience in the future league.

I can't wait for the reporting on the conversations where current Big 10 and SEC members are told that their out.

 

[Hoo's That]

I can't wait for the reporting on the conversations where current Big 10 and SEC members are told that their out.

We already know that Northwestern and Vanderbilt will opt out. Like you said, the fun will be watching the reactions of the uninvited who had already packed their bags. "The Commissioner wants to see you, and bring your playbook."

 

[Cusefan0307]

Based on the board the end game was suppose to happen this offseason.

 

[Cusefan69]

It's also a matter of water access too. The best thing going for the rust belt is proximity to fresh water. I think long term it helps the Big 10 the most (at least the original corridor) and may be a lifeline for western NY too. water rights will be a massive issue over the next 10 to 30 years, especially for data center build outs and cooling projects. Honestly building data centers in Texas right now without some major breakthroughs in cooling technology or water agreements from a northern state is foolish IMO.

One hundred percent agree. Just look also at all the down state water rights issues happening out west from Idaho to Colorado, western Nebraska, Nevada, Arizona and California. In the Northwest they just found a huge aquifer underground roughly the size of Lake Mead. Underground water rights will also be huge .
Sorry all, didn't mean to get off topic, just was thinking climate could have some implications related to football decisions in the not so distant future.

 

[HtownOrange]

The next sequence of contract renewals goes Big10, Big12, Sec and then ACC. My guess is the Big 12 is potentially in for a rude awakening. Fox is not losing control of their main asset the B10. I could see them siphoning off funds that would have been for Big12 to help cover the increase for Big10. Once that happens, a few schools may get absorbed from the Big12 into Sec and B10. ESPN will have to do the same for the SEC, further hurting B12. Behind the scenes negotiations will be happening with ACC schools starting in 2033 and at that point programs will make leaps to B10 and SEC. I think Syracuse gets an invite to one of them because they will help fill area divisions for both B10 and SEC. Funds from dead B12 and ACC will help buffer those SEC and B10 additions. Side note: once southerners see their climate getting hotter and hotter and more volatile, I sincerely believe you will see people moving up north into northern states. It's not happening now but I think we will see it happen 10 years from now. This isn't a political statement, just a science statement by the way.

The north offers a lot of advantages for manufacturing and growing. The big issue is the tax burden of the north v. the south, which I . I am one who does not think the north will die off (which works for the B1G), though I expect the south to continue to grow (which works for the SEC). Both points work for the ACC, or at least key teams in the ACC.

 

[HtownOrange]

We already know that Northwestern and Vanderbilt will opt out. Like you said, the fun will be watching the reactions of the uninvited who had already packed their bags. "The Commissioner wants to see you, and bring your playbook."

If you are right, Rutgers will be the first to go. Northwestern and Vandy likely pack their lockers and go out on their terms, sort of.

 

[HtownOrange]

I've long believed that the end game is that class attendance is voluntary (spelled "forbidden") for the players in an entity outside the NCAA for football, both basketball teams, and possibly baseball/softball. There will be something like 20-32 teams chosen from the bluebloods, and there will be surprises among which schools aren't chosen and which opt out. The remaining schools will be in a situation somewhere between what we have now and FCS, with a number of FBS schools returning to FCS because the money will no longer be there. It will be a mixed bag of which "have-nots" are willing to play the minor-leaguers as OOC games for the money and those who choose never to play teams of non-students.

Some of the teams will be owned by the schools just as the Universities in Mexico City (Pumas) and Nuevo Laredo (Tigres) own teams of non-students in the top league of Mexican soccer and some of them will be owned by private entities who will pay rights fees to the universities to have everything seen on game days now. For the fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and LSU (as examples), what they experience today will be what they seamlessly experience in the future league.

You've been consistent in this theory of the end game. Though I am not convinced, it is a viable option. How do you see the above happening with regards to Title IX, NIL, etc.?

And for fun, the bonus question:

Who are your surprises to stay academically focused and who gets invited to the fantasy college sports league?

I would not be surprised if Michigan stays with the academics, likewise; UCLA, Northwestern (as if they have a choice), USC, Vandy (of course). I think Georgia, TAMU and UT have to think about it but stay with the money.

If this does happen, there may remain enough money for a solid league with traditional student athletes to warrant separate coverage. Also, if this happens, none of them should play the fantasy college sports league.

 

[HtownOrange]

One hundred percent agree. Just look also at all the down state water rights issues happening out west from Idaho to Colorado, western Nebraska, Nevada, Arizona and California. In the Northwest they just found a huge aquifer underground roughly the size of Lake Mead. Underground water rights will also be huge .
Sorry all, didn't mean to get off topic, just was thinking climate could have some implications related to football decisions in the not so distant future.

You are right to look to the future, shipping is a huge matter in manufacture. Also, distance is a matter. The plains are great for growing but if it weren't for rivers, shipping the grains and meats would be very, very expensive.

As you note the mountains and west are hurting for water. Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, all have water issues. Their climates are not suitable for the growth they have seen and water will always remain a problem.

The south can be hot and miserable, though I prefer it over the cold winters.

California can fix their water issues if they want to. NIMBY sucks but it must go for the sake of the people. I have little sympathy for California, as long as they elect imbeciles who neglect their duties they get what they deserve. This isn't a left/right issue as everyone needs water, there are plenty of good ... and bad ... people on both sides of the proverbial aisle just not enough good yet to fix the issues. The wild fires are about to correct that matter.

 

[Hoo's That]

You've been consistent in this theory of the end game. Though I am not convinced, it is a viable option. How do you see the above happening with regards to Title IX, NIL, etc.?

And for fun, the bonus question:

Who are your surprises to stay academically focused and who gets invited to the fantasy college sports league?

I would not be surprised if Michigan stays with the academics, likewise; UCLA, Northwestern (as if they have a choice), USC, Vandy (of course). I think Georgia, TAMU and UT have to think about it but stay with the money.

If this does happen, there may remain enough money for a solid league with traditional student athletes to warrant separate coverage. Also, if this happens, none of them should play the fantasy college sports league.

If they go the private ownership route, they immediately make huge strides toward Title IX compliance because, at last count, 85 scholarships and 100+ roster spots go off the athletic department books. That would probably hold up even if the schools retain ownership because it would become a corporate entity similar to the companies schools set up to license the use of their patents.

The biggest academic-route surprise? Easy. Notre Dame. What Notre Dame is today is the legacy of Father Hesburgh. To go the semi-pro route would be an insult/slight/bad reflection on his legacy. There are posts on their hard-core fan site (NDNation) that make me believe even their fans who would like to go semi-pro acknowledge that they won't. There will be an unpredictable number of schools who are forced to be in the academic group, even though they want to be in the semi-pro group, because they'll determine the financing isn't there.

I think TV money will be there. Less than now, but more than before it took off, because the number and location of those left behind will have appeal. I've said this before, which 3:30 Week 10 game would people rather watch, 3-6 Texas v. 2-7 Alabama or 8-1 Pitt v. 9-0 Ga Tech?

In all of this reshuffling, no one will be voted out because it takes too many votes. Going the semi-pro route probably gives them the out they need because "We don't play NCAA football anymore."
B1G departees - Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon for sure. Nebraska will want to subject to money, Iowa and Minnesota will want to but the money probably won't be there. Illinois and Indiana pretty much already know they won't have the money. Purdue and Northwestern are in the academic group from the get-go. Rutgers and Maryland? They had better start making nice to the folks from whence they came.

SEC departees - Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas, aTm, Oklahoma, and Tennessee for sure. Ole Miss is 90%+ probable. Kentucky will want to, but putting the money together will be the determining factor. Arkansas will be in the same boat (maybe Jerry Jones leaves them a lot). Mississippi State, Missouri and South Carolina won't be asked, and Vanderbilt may already be sounding out members for their new conference.

 

[HtownOrange]

If they go the private ownership route, they immediately make huge strides toward Title IX compliance because, at last count, 85 scholarships and 100+ roster spots go off the athletic department books. That would probably hold up even if the schools retain ownership because it would become a corporate entity similar to the companies schools set up to license the use of their patents.

The biggest academic-route surprise? Easy. Notre Dame. What Notre Dame is today is the legacy of Father Hesburgh. To go the semi-pro route would be an insult/slight/bad reflection on his legacy. There are posts on their hard-core fan site (NDNation) that make me believe even their fans who would like to go semi-pro acknowledge that they won't. There will be an unpredictable number of schools who are forced to be in the academic group, even though they want to be in the semi-pro group, because they'll determine the financing isn't there.

I think TV money will be there. Less than now, but more than before it took off, because the number and location of those left behind will have appeal. I've said this before, which 3:30 Week 10 game would people rather watch, 3-6 Texas v. 2-7 Alabama or 8-1 Pitt v. 9-0 Ga Tech?

In all of this reshuffling, no one will be voted out because it takes too many votes. Going the semi-pro route probably gives them the out they need because "We don't play NCAA football anymore."
B1G departees - Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon for sure. Nebraska will want to subject to money, Iowa and Minnesota will want to but the money probably won't be there. Illinois and Indiana pretty much already know they won't have the money. Purdue and Northwestern are in the academic group from the get-go. Rutgers and Maryland? They had better start making nice to the folks from whence they came.

SEC departees - Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas, aTm, Oklahoma, and Tennessee for sure. Ole Miss is 90%+ probable. Kentucky will want to, but putting the money together will be the determining factor. Arkansas will be in the same boat (maybe Jerry Jones leaves them a lot). Mississippi State, Missouri and South Carolina won't be asked, and Vanderbilt may already be sounding out members for their new conference.

Thanks for the response.

I add to your point of watching 3-6 Texas v. 2-7 Alabama, many fans will simply reject the super league. It's fake, they have the NFL, and they are true to their schools, which heavily outnumber the super league.

I am a bit surprised you have Michigan in the super league as I read elsewhere that their alumni were solidly in the academic camp. That was a year or two ago and may have been old at that time.

I am suspect that Alabama and Auburn make the jump. Though neither is an academic powerhouse, it seems that with such a limited number, Alabama would be the sole representative from a smaller state. Texas and TAMU can be justified as Texas has a large population, likewise UCLA and USC. Possibly Florida and FSU or Miami, but not all three.

Anyway, enough speculation from me. I remain skeptic of this working, though you may be right on the legal point of Title IX not applying to a separately owned for-profit entity, especially if there is no academic requirement for the players.

Again, thanks. This is a viable option in spite of my skepticism.

 

[Hoo's That]

{snip}

Again, thanks. This is a viable option in spite of my skepticism.

I have less than zero idea of whether any of it will work, but I'm certain as can be they'll try.

 

[HtownOrange]

I have less than zero idea of whether any of it will work, but I'm certain as can be they'll try.

Money, big money is at stake, I agree. And there will be many other ideas pursued.

 

[Newhouser]

If they go the private ownership route, they immediately make huge strides toward Title IX compliance because, at last count, 85 scholarships and 100+ roster spots go off the athletic department books. That would probably hold up even if the schools retain ownership because it would become a corporate entity similar to the companies schools set up to license the use of their patents.

The biggest academic-route surprise? Easy. Notre Dame. What Notre Dame is today is the legacy of Father Hesburgh. To go the semi-pro route would be an insult/slight/bad reflection on his legacy. There are posts on their hard-core fan site (NDNation) that make me believe even their fans who would like to go semi-pro acknowledge that they won't. There will be an unpredictable number of schools who are forced to be in the academic group, even though they want to be in the semi-pro group, because they'll determine the financing isn't there.

I think TV money will be there. Less than now, but more than before it took off, because the number and location of those left behind will have appeal. I've said this before, which 3:30 Week 10 game would people rather watch, 3-6 Texas v. 2-7 Alabama or 8-1 Pitt v. 9-0 Ga Tech?

In all of this reshuffling, no one will be voted out because it takes too many votes. Going the semi-pro route probably gives them the out they need because "We don't play NCAA football anymore."
B1G departees - Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon for sure. Nebraska will want to subject to money, Iowa and Minnesota will want to but the money probably won't be there. Illinois and Indiana pretty much already know they won't have the money. Purdue and Northwestern are in the academic group from the get-go. Rutgers and Maryland? They had better start making nice to the folks from whence they came.

SEC departees - Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas, aTm, Oklahoma, and Tennessee for sure. Ole Miss is 90%+ probable. Kentucky will want to, but putting the money together will be the determining factor. Arkansas will be in the same boat (maybe Jerry Jones leaves them a lot). Mississippi State, Missouri and South Carolina won't be asked, and Vanderbilt may already be sounding out members for their new conference.

I think South Carolina and Arkansas can find the money.
Otherwise great stuff.

 

[IthacaMatt]

It has taken NFL 60 yrs to get to a league with 30+ Teams. Even then the teams have come and gone.

If you go to even a 48 team CFB 75% of the people will lose interest over night. It becomes like college Lax or hockey where small pockets care. It will take a long time to get that back.

Relegation doesnt work becauase schedules matter to people too much. Unless you throw that out the window over night will people be happy that one year then are playing OSU/Mich/Ore and next yr they are playing Toledo/App st?

And what happens to those teams money wise when all the Donors leave instantly to a big school?

Soccer doesnt have 40-50 team leagues and without that the sport wont work.

How many SU fans will support the team for 40K of fans in league 6 while the work back up? Its one thing to support a team to win 10 games and a dream season. Quite another knowing even going 12-0 it will be 5 yrs before they play an important game again?

Great post!

 

[IthacaMatt]

You are right to look to the future, shipping is a huge matter in manufacture. Also, distance is a matter. The plains are great for growing but if it weren't for rivers, shipping the grains and meats would be very, very expensive.

As you note the mountains and west are hurting for water. Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, all have water issues. Their climates are not suitable for the growth they have seen and water will always remain a problem.

The south can be hot and miserable, though I prefer it over the cold winters.

California can fix their water issues if they want to. NIMBY sucks but it must go for the sake of the people. I have little sympathy for California, as long as they elect imbeciles who neglect their duties they get what they deserve. This isn't a left/right issue as everyone needs water, there are plenty of good ... and bad ... people on both sides of the proverbial aisle just not enough good yet to fix the issues. The wild fires are about to correct that matter.

They have to stop farming in the desert. And they shouldn't be allowed to have lawns West of Texas.

 

[HtownOrange]

They have to stop farming in the desert. And they shouldn't be allowed to have lawns West of Texas.

Arizona did such in the 1990s. Existing lawns were grandfathered, all new lawns must be desert landscape and if an existing law was converted to desert landscape they could not convert back to lawns. Golf courses are excepted but most use a lot of desert landscape except where grass is necessary. Your concept works. Can't speak to the rest of the desert states.

 

[HtownOrange]

I think South Carolina and Arkansas can find the money.
Otherwise great stuff.

If so, would that push Clemson out of the select few?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The answer is that there is no long play/end game. Too many factions want too many different things. People would need to concede power for anything to actually happen.

It will never happen but IMO the solution that would satisfy the most people would be a promotion/relegation system. Pretty much everyone gets a little bit of what they want, while no one is really completely happy.

I don't think any other solution could work. There are too many obstacles to overcome.

 

[upperdeck]

Relegation wont work in a short season game,

even in Soccer your budget is decided by attendance/league money etc

But the soccer teams are not trying to create revenue for 20 other sports.

Just for SU, If we went down a level and our Best OPP became West Mich our attendance would cut in half or more. Our TV revenue would go down by 2/3. We would not have a team or other sports.

 

[longtimefan]

Based on the board the end game was suppose to happen this offseason.

That was FSU's dream scenario. First it was going to happen before July 1, then some time in August.

Now I expect they're just hoping to extort the ACC for an undeserved lion's share of the projected revenues.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Relegation wont work in a short season game,

even in Soccer your budget is decided by attendance/league money etc

But the soccer teams are not trying to create revenue for 20 other sports.

Just for SU, If we went down a level and our Best OPP became West Mich our attendance would cut in half or more. Our TV revenue would go down by 2/3. We would not have a team or other sports.

If non P4 schools can figure out how to budget olympic sports with no TV revenue, so can SU. Heck 25 years ago this TV money didn't exist. Did we have sports in the 90s?

 

[upperdeck]

Sure. But costs have changed. We didnt have IPF, and multiple practice sites and travel budgets and coaching costs and more coaches.

In the old old day schools played sports at a loss.

What did JB make in 1990 compared to an avg nice paying job? 100K vs 30K? now its 3-5 Million vs 60K?

 

[orange79]

If non P4 schools can figure out how to budget olympic sports with no TV revenue, so can SU. Heck 25 years ago this TV money didn't exist. Did we have sports in the 90s?

Well, most non-P4 schools schedule buy-games with P4 schools (FB and BB). This, in large part, funds their AD for the year.

 

[upperdeck]

If the model changes I would wonder if the OC game changed as well

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Well, most non-P4 schools schedule buy-games with P4 schools (FB and BB). This, in large part, funds their AD for the year.

Under the majority of end game scenarios those games likely will no longer exist. So will non FB sports be cut at the non Power schools?

Every end game scenario has negatives somewhere. The best option will be what provides the most benefits overall while also having the least negative impact overall.