Who is in / Who is Out? | Syracusefan.com

Who is in / Who is Out?

jncuse

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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Using the bracket matrix as the guide, which teams below the line get in, if any (i.e. NC ST, Belmont, Creighton, Indiana) and who do they replace?

Assuming your answer is none
1) If you were forced to pick one change what would it be?

I currently have Belmont & NC St in over Temple & Arizona St. The committee will show they care about the little guy, by taking out one of the more middle guys.
 

Chris02M

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i have nc state in and am still deciding betwen tcu and unc g and belmont
 

jdubs30

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Personally I think the committee either takes all of UNCG/Belmont/Furman or none of them ...
 

Tom W.

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I posted this in the tourney tracking thread, but here is a chart I just put together of some bubble metrics. Really tough calls to make for the committee tonight.

Screen Shot 2019-03-17 at 1.40.19 PM.png

TCW Bracketology
 

Chris02M

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I posted this in the tourney tracking thread, but here is a chart I just put together of some bubble metrics. Really tough calls to make for the committee tonight.

View attachment 156473
TCW Bracketology


good useful chart . there are some teams easily removable from the chart right away good and bad... texas clemson and indiana and vcu and washington on the good side then its a much tougher choice 5 spots for 10 teams
 

Tom W.

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good useful chart . there are some teams easily removable from the chart right away good and bad... texas clemson and indiana and vcu and washingtonon the good side then its a much tougher choice 5 spots for 10 teams

So many different ways they could go. NC State is close to elimination for me. Just hard to see the committee overlooking that 353 NCSOS.
 

Chris02M

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So many different ways they could go. NC State is close to elimination for me. Just hard to see the committee overlooking that 353 NCSOS.


if all there other metrics didnt say good enough to me id agree. I have my last slot coming down to tcu vs unc greensboro
 

CorduroyG

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So many different ways they could go. NC State is close to elimination for me. Just hard to see the committee overlooking that 353 NCSOS.


yup, i think nc state is out. its much easier to keep a bubble team out if they have a glaring weakness. cant get any more glaring than that non conf sos
 

orange79

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As I said in another thread, we will learn a lot from today's selections. How closely does the committee weigh the NET in seeding? How much do they weigh SOS for inclusion (VCU has the #2 NCSOS and #53 overall, NC St has #353 and #179+ overall)?

The answers to these questions will go a long way towards guessing next year's bracket. We really don't know exactly what they are going to do this year.
 

Orangemen

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if all there other metrics didnt say good enough to me id agree. I have my last slot coming down to tcu vs unc greensboro
UNCG is an interesting case.

No bad losses but a lot of weak opponents.

Not great Q1 record but it's hard to tell from the chart what kind of Q1 games they were.
 

kingtidge

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As I said in another thread, we will learn a lot from today's selections. How closely does the committee weigh the NET in seeding? How much do they weigh SOS for inclusion (VCU has the #2 NCSOS and #53 overall, NC St has #353 and #179+ overall)?

The answers to these questions will go a long way towards guessing next year's bracket. We really don't know exactly what they are going to do this year.

Exactly.

Said last week this year is a new litmus test for seeding and bubble selection with the new NET metrics and quad usage.

Prognosticating based on past committee decisions isn't holding much weight at this point.
 

Obie9

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As I said in another thread, we will learn a lot from today's selections. How closely does the committee weigh the NET in seeding? How much do they weigh SOS for inclusion (VCU has the #2 NCSOS and #53 overall, NC St has #353 and #179+ overall)?

The answers to these questions will go a long way towards guessing next year's bracket. We really don't know exactly what they are going to do this year.

I would tend to agree, but the committee has also been infamous for valuing one thing one year and something else the following year.
 

Ozzie0075

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Washington is an interesting case win a lot games in a major conference that was really down this year. Only beat one team in the field. I still think they get in but are a 10 or 11 seed. If they were a 26-8 mid with 1 good win no way they get in.
 

JaySU22

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I was thinking N.C. st and Belmont could make it but there were bid thieves and there doesn’t seem to be any egregious inclusions in matrix. Maybe I would take ASU out and put Belmont in. NC st is so close that they don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt with their non conf sos.

If the matrix plays out Dicky V will be more apoplectic than usual
 

PoppyHart

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The BM thinks Oregon is a 12. The committee surely thinks they are unequivably better than Washington after the two beat downs in the last 8 days.
 

jncuse

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I think some people are overstating SOS on its own. the SOS is not what kills you, it is what it generally does to your other metrics. And a team like NC St was able to overcome it in those other metrics.

SOS is already baked into NET, RPI (in the past), and inherently part of quadrants.

For a mid major, they will have a bad SOS, But more importantly they don't get Q1/Q2 chances, which limits their ability to compete with the P5 on the main metric (quality wins)

The SOS only matters for a P5 school when they want to use it for punitive reasons, which they have not done for a while.
 
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jncuse

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The BM thinks Oregon is a 12. The committee surely thinks they are unequivably better than Washington after the two beat downs in the last 8 days.

8 days does not equal the season body of work.

Both teams are close however on body of work.
 

orange79

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I think some people are overstating SOS on its own. the SOS is not what kills you, it is what it generally does to your other metrics. And a team like NC St was able to overcome it in those other metrics.

SOS is already baked into NET, RPI (in the past), and inherently part of quadrants.

For a mid major, they will have a bad SOS, But more importantly they don't get Q1/Q2 chances, which limits their ability to compete with the P5 on the main metric (quality wins)

The SOS only matters for a P5 school when they want to use it for punitive reasons, which they have not done for a while.
I agree that SOS is baked in to the ratings. I just think it's awfully hard to ignore that 353 of NC St's. It just jumps off the page at you. :)
 

PoppyHart

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8 days does not equal the season body of work.

Both teams are close however on body of work.

The committee's goal is not to screw over a 4-5 seed just because a team like Oregon took a while to get on track. If they believe they are better than teams on the 8, 9, 10 line, etc... then they need to seed them there. There is no getting around making head to head judgments about who the better team is, and the better team should get the better seed.
 

MikeDamone

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I think some people are overstating SOS on its own. the SOS is not what kills you, it is what it generally does to your other metrics. And a team like NC St was able to overcome it in those other metrics.

SOS is already baked into NET, RPI (in the past), and inherently part of quadrants.

For a mid major, they will have a bad SOS, But more importantly they don't get Q1/Q2 chances, which limits their ability to compete with the P5 on the main metric (quality wins)

The SOS only matters for a P5 school when they want to use it for punitive reasons, which they have not done for a while.
I think NC State highlights that SOS is not baked into the NET enough. Dead last in country non conf SOS but are still 33 in NET. I know NET is heavily efficiency and it makes sense their efficiency numbers should be good with such a putrid SOS.

It's an interesting test case to see if they get in and their seeding to see if the NET can be exploited with a turrible non conf schedule
 

Briancuse

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People are overrating nc state they beat us and auburn and played a garbage schedule.
 

C Bomb

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To the jackrabbit NIT State fan sitting behind me who made the game in Raleigh very uncomfortable for my young children: suck It
 

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