Why and how to retain HCSS

[SWC75]

I think the O/P's standards get applied to most programs every year.

Basically we have a talented but young team that has learned how to compete but not how to win. I think the coaches could do more to help them out in that regard.

 

[jekelish]

If im Coyle i would keep Shafer under the following provision.

* The team doesnt quit on him

* The team regardless of W/L continues to make progress.

* Recruiting continues to trend upward and he retains his key recruits in the event we continue to lose this year

* He agrees to review his staff and make adjustments that might be warranted such as the secondary and Oline

* There are no major off field issues.

If the above is met i would provide him with a 2 year extension. The extension would have a low and high end buy out. If he was let go with a less than 5 win season going forward the buyout would be the lower number. 6 wins or greater would earn the higher amount.

At this point with the injuries of last year, Lester being new and showing promise, More youth playing significant roles than at anytime in the history of SU Football, recruiting trending up i believe that unless we have the money to hire a true name coach and staff that we would be making a huge mistake to fire him after this year. The program is heading in the right direction regardless of the W/L results. To fire Shafer now could set us back many years. Next year we will still be very young but we will have the best depth at many key positions that we have had in years. This years recruiting class looks very strong and wih them in the fold combined with this years team growing bigger stronger faster and smarter coupled with another year in the Lester system we should be poised to do very well. At that point it the excuses will no longer exist and Coyle can make a true decision based on HCSS and his staff ability to coach.

One more years guys. That is the right call at this point.

Agree entirely with all of your points.

 

[djorange1989]

Total offense, yards.

They have more offensive TD's than the team did all of last year, which is obviously better, but in the scheme of things, BFD, because last years 18 TD's were the third worst in D-1, better than only by Wake and SMU.

With a true freshman QB(who was replaced by a walk on for a game and a half) I think having more offensive TDs in half a season is actually a BFD. There is plenty of room for offensive improvement but it is clearly better. Our D, while much better yesterday for most of the game, is the reason we aren't 4-2 or 5-1. They haven't made big stops in crunch time since Wake.

 

[djorange1989]

Anytime I hear people use the word "excuse" I know they are not in the business of fair evaluation. And since Coyle is...

The same haters who keep saying they are tired of excuses are the same haters who don't give Shafer credit for 2013. That was a 3 win team that won 6 and then a bowl. Instead they say "we were lucky, Maryland sucked and was injured when we beat them, NC State was too, BC took until the last 6 seconds". Based on the "experts" nationally, Shafer overachieved in 2013, underachieved in 2014 and is on target to achieve what was expected this year(3-4 wins). He makes some bad decisions(like not calling time out late in regulation) but the guy deserves another year. No bowl in 2016 with most of the two deep coming back? Then it is time to make a change.

 

[007]

Maybe it clicks but my guess they end the year in sub 100 in offense, more likely sub 110, and in the 70's on defense.

It's the formula for a 3 win season.

IF Dungey stays healthy, the rankings at the end of the season are going to be better for the O than the D, maybe even a lot better. Not that I think the O is going to be great, or even average (but potentially it could be). I think that, as the season wears on, it is going to become increasingly obvious just how bad this D is. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[tipphill]

Tough loss. A real stinger. We had every significant advantage over UVa with one glaring exception: Mizzell (#4) was the best player on the field and we rarely, if ever stopped him.

If this were baseball, I'd feel like we hit 4 solo homers but lost, 5-4, thanks to a flurry of infield hits, bloopers and walks.

I agree with some of what I have read on this site the last few days, disagree with some other stuff. These opinions are mine and if you disagree, you are likely nuts/wrong, but I respect your thoughts as long as you are not trolling or have an obvious bias.

I don’t love what I saw in the coaching department yesterday, but I am not really ready to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Personally, I just don’t think I am ready to start over again.
New coaching staff. New recruiting contacts/scope. New offense. New defense. Kids leaving, some of which could be upper-tier players. Everyone seems to assume the new HC is going to be better in every facet (staff hires, offense, defense, recruiting, public persona). And more often than not, they don’t hit home runs in all of these areas. Perhaps some, but not others.

Three years in, I see the Shafer administration doing well on offense, defense, special teams and recruiting. Continuity should bear fruit.

Offense
Unlike most here, I really like Lester’s offense. I think we’ve moved the ball better this year than any season dating to McNabb, with the exception of Nassib’s senior season. It’s not perfect, of course. How much of this success is predicated on the presence of Dungey? A lot I suppose, but I think you could say that about a good number of offenses around the nation. We should do better in the red zone. IMHO, we should stretch the field a bit more vertically. I wish we could run the ball between the tackles. To me, the offensive line is sub-par this season and this is hindering our offensive efforts. They’ve been poor despite being a veteran unit.

Defense
Terrible irony that for the last 5-6 years, our defense is all we’ve often had to hang our hat on. And now that we have a requisite offense and a young & dynamic quarterback (any multiple playmakers), our defense is really struggling. That said, my eyes tell me that I should believe that the prior 5 years can be the norm and this year is an aberration. We have some work to do, but we’ve seen Shafer and Bullough perform at a high level for years at a time.

Special Teams
Much much better this year. We all see that. Not perfect, but it’s been a while since we’ve been this strong in the kicking game. The return game, especially on punts, is above average for the first time since Qadry, Shelby Hill or Jim Turner were on campus (it been a long time). Plugging in a highly regarded kicker, who is currently redshirting, next year won’t hurt things.

Recruiting
It’s going well. Noticeable improvement it would seem, especially in the recruitment of the quarterback position. In the last 5 years, we’ve expanded our scope to the Midwest and Georgia a bit. After years of being nearly shut out, we are again solid in Florida. New Jersey is trending up, granted at a steady pace, and that is okay. And I think we are gaining traction in the Empire State. Having Steven Gregory on staff won’t hurt those efforts in NYC in the coming years. I’d also like to see us to make some hay in Pennsylvania in the coming years. Immediate focus for me would be on the offensive and defensive lines.

Overall
Yesterday was not that good. We needed one stop and had about 4-5 chances to achieve it. Calls inside the 2-yard line were iffy at best. I've seen Shafer grow this year. I've seen him go for it on 4th-and-1 multiple times (yesterday was a bad decision on the risk/reward scale). I've seen fake kicks work a vast majority of the time. I've seen better, but not flawless, clock management.

What I do want to see Shafer and Co. do it go for the jugular. Play to win (cliche). I know this sounds silly, but I feel yesterday, he relished the opportunity to win the game by 7 points or less. Well, I think we had so much going for us that we could have won that game by 10-14 points. Yes, run-run-pass when we had the ball in the 4th quarter. But also, when we were up 7 (late in the 3rd Q) and had the ball first-and-goal on the 9 yard line. Run-run-pass = Field goal. Go for the win Coach. Coach or show these kids how to win, not how to survive. (disclaimer: sometimes run-run-pass works, but I feel like this becomes quite difficult inside the 10 yard line).

Overall
I have no allegiance to Shafer in any way. I do like him enough and respect what he represents, but I don’t love him and am not married to keeping him. I do have a lot a faith in Coyle, so if he does pull the plug, I believe he’ll make a good hire. But if he asked me today, I’d tell him to keep Shafer because I like much of what I am seeing.

i like the youth approach, i think we should extend him and give him funds for competent staff. i question his game day coaching, he (or his coordinators) make a multitude of bonehead decisions, including clock management and redzone offense.i do not have confidence that he is knowlegable enough for the position---but i need to wait another year to to see. this season epitomizes why i dropped my sth ---i am out of show me patience

 

[TheCusian]

The same haters who keep saying they are tired of excuses are the same haters who don't give Shafer credit for 2013. That was a 3 win team that won 6 and then a bowl. Instead they say "we were lucky, Maryland sucked and was injured when we beat them, NC State was too, BC took until the last 6 seconds". Based on the "experts" nationally, Shafer overachieved in 2013, underachieved in 2014 and is on target to achieve what was expected this year(3-4 wins). He makes some bad decisions(like not calling time out late in regulation) but the guy deserves another year. No bowl in 2016 with most of the two deep coming back? Then it is time to make a change.

Exactly. Every game, every season is made up of factors that contribute to wins and losses. Sifting through it all to come to a conclusion on someone's competency is a tough tough job. Starting out by eliminating one set or another by labeling them excuses is silly.

 

[Millhouse]

I think the offense is stupid but coached professionally. Last year's offense was less stupid and run by a total moron. I want a good offense .

Dungey alone makes a big difference and I have to imagine that an excellent candidate would jump at the chance to coach these young guys.

I don't want to wait til it's a total rebuild. I think 5-7 is close enough for them to stay. But 4-8, I say unload them. It's silly that it comes down to one game, really I've already made up mind but getting to 5 delays the inevitable

 

[Millhouse]

Total offense, yards. They have more offensive TD's than the team did all of last year, which is obviously better, but in the scheme of things, BFD, because last years 18 TD's were the third worst in D-1, better than only by Wake and SMU.

Getting lots of points with few yards is luck.

 

[OrangeinBoston]

I can understand keeping Shafer at least for another year. Clearly, he runs the program in the way I would like. He seems to create an atmosphere that players like and he recruits well.

But, to stay on, he has to agree to:

1. Dump non-performing assistants - OL coaches, Secondary coach. And, maybe somebody can explain what Bullough is doing. I would really appreciate it, because I really don't understand. Some progress, but the jury is out on Lester - better play calling in general but poor results in the second half. And if he ever tries that nonsense call on the goal line again, that's grounds for immediate dismissal. Give the damn ball to Fredricks - he knows where the damn goal line is.

2. He has to agree to go Juco to get immediate help in the secondary, DT, and perhaps OL.

 

[orange79]

I can understand keeping Shafer at least for another year. Clearly, he runs the program in the way I would like. He seems to create an atmosphere that players like and he recruits well.

But, to stay on, he has to agree to:

1. Dump non-performing assistants - OL coaches, Secondary coach. And, maybe somebody can explain what Bullough is doing. I would really appreciate it, because I really don't understand. Some progress, but the jury is out on Lester - better play calling in general but poor results in the second half. And if he ever tries that nonsense call on the goal line again, that's grounds for immediate dismissal. Give the damn ball to Fredricks - he knows where the damn goal line is.

2. He has to agree to go Juco to get immediate help in the secondary, DT, and perhaps OL.

The JUCO's would need to agree to come here. It's not a one-way street. If we're looking at someone, other schools are looking at them too. Sure, you can ask him to try going JUCO, but you can't hold him responsible for them choosing to go elsewhere, or not qualifying.

 

[OrangeinBoston]

The JUCO's would need to agree to come here. It's not a one-way street. If we're looking at someone, other schools are looking at them too. Sure, you can ask him to try going JUCO, but you can't hold him responsible for them choosing to go elsewhere, or not qualifying.

Of course, but the promise of immediate playing time should be in Shafer's quiver.

 

[orange79]

Of course, but the promise of immediate playing time should be in Shafer's quiver.

Agreed, absolutely.

 

[GoSU96]

The same haters who keep saying they are tired of excuses are the same haters who don't give Shafer credit for 2013. That was a 3 win team that won 6 and then a bowl. Instead they say "we were lucky, Maryland sucked and was injured when we beat them, NC State was too, BC took until the last 6 seconds". Based on the "experts" nationally, Shafer overachieved in 2013, underachieved in 2014 and is on target to achieve what was expected this year(3-4 wins). He makes some bad decisions(like not calling time out late in regulation) but the guy deserves another year. No bowl in 2016 with most of the two deep coming back? Then it is time to make a change.

Why was the 2013 team a three win team?

 

[GoSU96]

With a true freshman QB(who was replaced by a walk on for a game and a half) I think having more offensive TDs in half a season is actually a BFD. There is plenty of room for offensive improvement but it is clearly better. Our D, while much better yesterday for most of the game, is the reason we aren't 4-2 or 5-1. They haven't made big stops in crunch time since Wake.

It's not that big deal, it's what should be expected given the schedule to date.

And I said it was better, but then again it couldn't get much worse than last year for overall offense.

Last years team had 4 less rushing and passing TD's than the 2008 team did in Grobs last year, truly horrific.

I've said I like what Lester is trying to do, but it's not productive right now. Yeah they make plays, which is great, but it's not executing.

If you have a top notch defense you can base your offense around a freelancing QB, but that is not sustainable here. I'd like to see Dungey distribute the ball and run the offense and make something out of nothing once in a while, not a constant dose of it.

I think he'll be very good, but he's not McNabb or Vick. I'd rather see more Nassib in his game.

 

[TheCusian]

Why was the 2013 team a three win team?

Losing the entire offensive staff save a WR coach, a QB to the NFL, top two targets to graduation, your three top offensive recruits, a brutal OOC, and a new conference.

Also a first time HC.

 

[GoSU96]

Getting lots of points with few yards is luck.

It's not really that many points. Kid can make plays, without a doubt.

But do it within the context of a well executing offense and the pieces are there. I like what Lester is trying to do. Liked the zero TE set with Lewis on the wing along with Phillips or Strickland. But for that stuff to work plays have to be quick.

 

[RF2044]

He should get next year.

This season was always 12 scrimmages.

My problem is with the delusionals who couldn't/can't see where this team is right now.

Without a major improvement this team was never going to win 6 games and they have gotten worse in the easier half of the schedule.

Maybe it clicks but my guess they end the year in sub 100 in offense, more likely sub 110, and in the 70's on defense.

It's the formula for a 3 win season.

Stop playing to win and "4th quarter games" and get some reps. Run you offense and get kids reps on defense.

It might be a youth movement season but the future in not now, it's next year.

My problem is with the delusionals who couldn't / can't see what the team's actual problems are.

It's the defense, stupid.

The offensive system under Lester is fine. The QB is much better than what we've had. The OL is subpar, and the general issue is that several key players that we rely upon are frosh, who's inconsistency is a function of inexperience. There aren't systemic issues with the offense, our problems are on the other side of the ball.

 

[TheCusian]

It's not really that many points. Kid can make plays, without a doubt. But do it within the context of a well executing offense and the pieces are there. I like what Lester is trying to do. Liked the zero TE set with Lewis on the wing along with Phillips or Strickland. But for that stuff to work plays have to be quick.

Yep. I want to look up our 2 minute offense/coming from behind O vs our normal O.

Seems like when we go faster we slice up teams. Dungey's good enough, let's take the reigns off.

 

[GoSU96]

Losing the entire offensive staff save a WR coach, a QB to the NFL, top two targets to graduation, your three top offensive recruits, a brutal OOC, and a new conference.

Also a first time HC.

It was a 7 win PSU team with a true freshmen QB and a 5 win Northwestern team as the hard part with an awful Tulane team and Wagner, how is that brutal?

They had the 33rd ranked defense and 37th ranked rushing attack. 7 wins was a normal outcome for the level of performance that year.

This whole starting from scratch/left with nothing stuff is such garbage.

 

[TheCusian]

It was a 7 win PSU team with a true freshmen QB and a 5 win Northwestern team as the hard part with an awful Tulane team and Wagner, how is that brutal? They had the 33rd ranked defense and 37th ranked rushing attack. 7 wins was a normal outcome for the level of performance that year. This whole starting from scratch/left with nothing stuff is such garbage.

Hindsight. Northwestern was ranked and on the road. PSU was an "away" game too - and no one was picking us outside of this board. Most had us finishing last in in our division.

Our offense was putrid before we figured out the running game half way through the season.

 

[RF2044]

It was a 7 win PSU team with a true freshmen QB and a 5 win Northwestern team as the hard part with an awful Tulane team and Wagner, how is that brutal?

They had the 33rd ranked defense and 37th ranked rushing attack. 7 wins was a normal outcome for the level of performance that year.

This whole starting from scratch/left with nothing stuff is such garbage.

BS. They lost a ton from the 2012 team. A QB who is cashing NFL paychecks, a 1st round pick LT, and two WRs who were outstanding college players.

That 2013 team started out terribly with two horrific performances to start the season. I attend both the PSU and Northwestern game--I saw both first hand. Brutal. Given that I didn't want to hire Shafer, I thought he was completely overmatched and that we'd made a poor decision hiring him. We also righted the ship and went on to win all but 1 50/50 game that year.

How were 7 wins a "normal outcome" for the circumstances? Indefensible position.

And frankly, given what we've seen since, that first season may have been fools gold.

 

[GoSU96]

My problem is with the delusionals who couldn't / can't see what the team's actual problems are.

It's the defense, stupid.

The offensive system under Lester is fine. The QB is much better than what we've had. The OL is subpar, and the general issue is that several key players that we rely upon are frosh, who's inconsistency is a function of inexperience. There aren't systemic issues with the offense, our problems are on the other side of the ball.

Where did I say the offense Lester is trying to run is the problem?

When I posted that this team was not going to get to six wins unless there was major improvement in the level of performance you led the attack.

BTW, the defense didn't hold the offense to 3 points in the second half. UVA is awful.

 

[RF2044]

Where did I say the offense Lester is trying to run is the problem?

When I posted that this team was not going to get to six wins unless there was major improvement in the level of performance you led the attack.

BTW, the defense didn't hold the offense to 3 points in the second half. UVA is awful.

I didn't lead any attack. I said that the numbers you were quoting had situational context--namely, that our best QB had played half of the season to that point. Which skewed the numbers.

UVa is awful. What was the time of possession in the 2nd half? We couldn't get stops. Hence, why we couldn't get the ball into the offense's hands.

Huge missed opportunity. We left 10 points on the floor in the first half, and got screwed by a bad fumble call that led to a defensive score. If any of those things don't occur, we're having a different conversation today. But they didn't, so we aren't.

 

[GoSU96]

Hindsight. Northwestern was ranked and on the road. PSU was an "away" game too - and no one was picking us outside of this board. Most had us finishing last in in our division.

Our offense was putrid before we figured out the running game half way through the season.

"Figured out the running game"? It was always there, to bad there was moron in charge of the offense.

They won seven games because that team, that roster was perfectly capable of doing so against that schedule. It wasn't a miracle or overachievement.

And how do facts add up hindsight.

They should have beaten Pitt also.