Why and how to retain HCSS

[GoSU96]

I didn't lead any attack. I said that the numbers you were quoting had situational context--namely, that our best QB had played half of the season to that point. Which skewed the numbers.

UVa is awful. What was the time of possession in the 2nd half? We couldn't get stops. Hence, why we couldn't get the ball into the offense's hands.

Huge missed opportunity.

Here's some context, they've gotten worse.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

My problem is with the delusionals who couldn't / can't see what the team's actual problems are.

It's the defense, stupid.

The offensive system under Lester is fine. The QB is much better than what we've had. The OL is subpar, and the general issue is that several key players that we rely upon are frosh, who's inconsistency is a function of inexperience. There aren't systemic issues with the offense, our problems are on the other side of the ball.

We don't know if we have system issues on O yet. Overall I liek what Lester has done and think he is a lot better than McDonald. However the stats say otherwise, especially when Dungey improvising has created quite a bit of our production. Yard per game compared to McDonald last year is down 69 yards per game. Yards per play was 5.72 under McDonald and now is 5.36 per play. We have an experienced OL and experience skill guys. Only Dungey hits the youth issue, but we all would agree that Dunegy has been awesome. So why the dip in production?

 

[K Otto XLIV]

"Figured out the running game"? It was always there, to bad there was moron in charge of the offense.

They won seven games because that team, that roster was perfectly capable of doing so against that schedule. It wasn't a miracle or overachievement.

And how do facts add up hindsight.

They should have beaten Pitt also.

A competent OC likely gets us a W vs PSU as well. If anything that team underachieved.

 

[RF2044]

We don't know if we have system issues on O yet. Overall I liek what Lester has done and think he is a lot better than McDonald. However the stats say otherwise, especially when Dungey improvising has created quite a bit of our production. Yard per game compared to McDonald last year is down 69 yards per game. Yards per play was 5.72 under McDonald and now is 5.36 per play. We have an experienced OL and experience skill guys. Only Dungey hits the youth issue, but we all would agree that Dunegy has been awesome. So why the dip in production?

We have experienced skill guys? Really?

 

[GoSU96]

BS. They lost a ton from the 2012 team. A QB who is cashing NFL paychecks, a 1st round pick LT, and two WRs who were outstanding college players.

That 2013 team started out terribly with two horrific performances to start the season. I attend both the PSU and Northwestern game--I saw both first hand. Brutal. Given that I didn't want to hire Shafer, I thought he was completely overmatched and that we'd made a poor decision hiring him. We also righted the ship and went on to win all but 1 50/50 game that year.

How were 7 wins a "normal outcome" for the circumstances? Indefensible position.

And frankly, given what we've seen since, that first season may have been fools gold.

Indefensible?, teams with a top 35 defense and top 40 run game win 7 games on a routine basis, nothing unusual about that.

Teams transition head coaches and still win, nothing unusual about that either.

 

[RF2044]

Here's some context, they've gotten worse.

Gotten worse relative to what? Last year?

This offense is exponentially better than what we had last year, as evidenced by the scoring numbers. Apparently, you don't understand how historically bad we were last year.

We aren't where we need to be, I'll grant you that. And we've squandered winnable games, which in the big picture are hugely detrimental.

 

[RF2044]

Indefensible?, teams with a top 35 defense and top 40 run game win 7 games on a routine basis, nothing unusual about that.

Teams transition head coaches and still win, nothing unusual about that either.

Its unusual when you turn over an entire coaching staff and all of the relevant principals on offense from the previous year.

But don't let that get in the way of your rhetoric. Your lack of context is astounding.

Now, if you want to argue that since year one the results have plummeted, and that we might be worse off than we were, that might be a winning argument. Whether or not this coaching staff is good enough is squarely questionable at this point.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

We have experienced skill guys? Really?

McFarlane, Morris, Philips, Lewis, Estime, Ishmael all have plenty of experience. None of them are new to being in the O rotation.

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

If im Coyle i would keep Shafer under the following provision.

* The team doesnt quit on him

* The team regardless of W/L continues to make progress.

* Recruiting continues to trend upward and he retains his key recruits in the event we continue to lose this year

* He agrees to review his staff and make adjustments that might be warranted such as the secondary and Oline

* There are no major off field issues.

I think this was a thoughtful post. Unfortunately, I disagree with the premise with which it is pinned upon: we are not making progress. We are a big mess. We can talk about better recruiting all we want, but as Texas/Michigan/USC/pick a school have shown, it is only a single (albeit) piece of a complex picture. From scheme to staff construction to pr to most any other major decision a hfb makes, he has floundered. We are watching a carnival, not a program's resurrection, IMHO.

 

[RF2044]

McFarlane, Morris, Philips, Lewis, Estime, Ishmael all have plenty of experience. None of them are new to being in the O rotation.

Give me a break. We have a true frosh QB and a true frosh RB. McFarlane, Morris are average, which is why they've been supplanted.

Philips is a true soph who hasn't played a ton, and has been injured. When he plays, he appears to be a difference maker. Ishamael is another true soph who is only beginning to scratch the surface.

Here's some perspective: the bulk of our talent on this team is squarely in the underclass group, on both sides of the ball. They'll be the nucleus that turns things around next year, but right now they are inconsistent as hell. This isn't basketball, where incoming frosh turn teams around. Football generally requires a bit of time for young talent to get used to the speed / physical demands of the collegiate game.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Give me a break. We have a true frosh QB and a true frosh RB. McFarlane, Morris are average, which is why they've been supplanted.

Philips is a true soph who hasn't played a ton. Ishamael is another true soph.

The bulk of our talent on this team is squarely in the underclass group, on both sides of the ball. They'll be the nucleus that turns things around next year, but right now they are inconsistent as hell. This isn't basketball, where incoming frosh turn teams around. Football generally requires a bit of time for young talent to get used to the speed / physical demands of the collegiate game.

We have underclassmen but they all played quite a bit last year. These aren't frosh or RS frosh. Philips averaged 5.5 touches per game O last year and played in all but the opener. We have youth but experienced youth on O.

 

[TheCusian]

"Figured out the running game"? It was always there, to bad there was moron in charge of the offense. They won seven games because that team, that roster was perfectly capable of doing so against that schedule. It wasn't a miracle or overachievement. And how do facts add up hindsight. They should have beaten Pitt also.

You need to go back and re-read the thread. You can't use 2013 years stats to prove that they didn't over achieve in 2013. You'd have to rely on what we had coming back from the 2012 team to prove that.

And by any measure we lost all that made the team successful in 2012 on offense save Smith and Pugh (who was also out for the first half of the year).

 

[RF2044]

We have underclassmen but they all played quite a bit last year. These aren't frosh or RS frosh. Philips averaged 5.5 touches per game O last year and played in all but the opener. We have youth but experienced youth on O.

Again, we have a true frosh QB. We have a true frosh RB. We don't have much experience on offense, relative to most other teams in college football Even players like Ishmael / Philips are hugely wet behind the ears--guys who didn't redshirt. Estime is a guy who is a true junior [no redshirt], but he missed 90% of last year.

And those are the principals. Throw in Stickland, another true frosh. We aren't expereinced with the offensive skilled talent at all. We are tremendously young / inexperienced.

 

[RF2044]

You need to go back and re-read the thread. You can't use 2013 years stats to prove that they didn't over achieve in 2013. You'd have to rely on what we had coming back from the 2012 team to prove that.

And by any measure we lost all that made the team successful in 2012 on offense save Smith and Pugh (who was also out for the first half of the year).

Pugh wasn't on the 2013 team, he was a first round pick in the 2013 draft.

 

[TheCusian]

We don't know if we have system issues on O yet. Overall I liek what Lester has done and think he is a lot better than McDonald. However the stats say otherwise, especially when Dungey improvising has created quite a bit of our production. Yard per game compared to McDonald last year is down 69 yards per game. Yards per play was 5.72 under McDonald and now is 5.36 per play. We have an experienced OL and experience skill guys. Only Dungey hits the youth issue, but we all would agree that Dunegy has been awesome. So why the dip in production?

Dungey's not played all 5 games and the defense isn't giving the offense the ball back enough. Too many long drives given up. Wake 1st half, UVa 2nd, CMU whole second half.

 

[kcsu]

Again, we have a true frosh QB. We have a true frosh RB. We don't have much experience on offense, relative to most other teams in college football Even players like Ishmael / Philips are hugely wet behind the ears--guys who didn't redshirt. Estime is a guy who is a true junior [no redshirt], but he missed 90% of last year.

And those are the principals. Throw in Stickland, another true frosh. We aren't expereinced with the offensive skilled talent at all. We are tremendously young / inexperienced.

And they have had to learn a new O as well

 

[TheCusian]

Indefensible?, teams with a top 35 defense and top 40 run game win 7 games on a routine basis, nothing unusual about that. Teams transition head coaches and still win, nothing unusual about that either.

You didn't know that in August 2012. Going into the season - you predicted that?! First year in the ACC with a new OC, HC, QB, and 2 starting WR's?

Cmon.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Dungey's not played all 5 games and the defense isn't giving the offense the ball back enough. Too many long drives given up. Wake 1st half, UVa 2nd, CMU whole second half.

Yards per play takes away any D factor. Dungey being out vs CMU & LSU is a fair point. Which is why I said we cannot tell yet if the O system is good enough yet.

 

[GoSU96]

Gotten worse relative to what? Last year?

This offense is exponentially better than what we had last year, as evidenced by the scoring numbers. Apparently, you don't understand how historically bad we were last year.

We aren't where we need to be, I'll grant you that.

Relative to three weeks ago when I said they were going to win six games playing at the level they were, and still are.

I don't understand how bad they were last year? Yeah, completely unaware.

 

[TheCusian]

I think this was a thoughtful post. Unfortunately, I disagree with the premise with which it is pinned upon: we are not making progress. We are a big mess. We can talk about better recruiting all we want, but as Texas/Michigan/USC/pick a school have shown, it is only a single (albeit) piece of a complex picture. From scheme to staff construction to pr to most any other major decision a hfb makes, he has floundered. We are watching a carnival, not a program's resurrection, IMHO.

Progress = the freshman playing

We are inexperienced. Coaches have helped and hindered that at different times - but we should rightly assume our offense and defense will get better. Soon enough to get us to a bowl? Looking unlikely.

 

[RF2044]

If im Coyle i would keep Shafer under the following provision.

* The team doesnt quit on him

* The team regardless of W/L continues to make progress.

* Recruiting continues to trend upward and he retains his key recruits in the event we continue to lose this year

* He agrees to review his staff and make adjustments that might be warranted such as the secondary and Oline

* There are no major off field issues.

If the above is met i would provide him with a 2 year extension. The extension would have a low and high end buy out. If he was let go with a less than 5 win season going forward the buyout would be the lower number. 6 wins or greater would earn the higher amount.

At this point with the injuries of last year, Lester being new and showing promise, More youth playing significant roles than at anytime in the history of SU Football, recruiting trending up i believe that unless we have the money to hire a true name coach and staff that we would be making a huge mistake to fire him after this year. The program is heading in the right direction regardless of the W/L results. To fire Shafer now could set us back many years. Next year we will still be very young but we will have the best depth at many key positions that we have had in years. This years recruiting class looks very strong and wih them in the fold combined with this years team growing bigger stronger faster and smarter coupled with another year in the Lester system we should be poised to do very well. At that point it the excuses will no longer exist and Coyle can make a true decision based on HCSS and his staff ability to coach.

One more years guys. That is the right call at this point.

This is a really interesting OP. Question: what would be the line in the sand where Shafer has to go? If we only go 3-9 again?

Full disclosure: I like Shafer. I think his personality by and large would jazz up the fan base, if we could ever get things turned around. I really like what he and his ACs are doing on the recruiting trail, and it is obvious that they are bringing in higher caliber athletes / playmakers than the previous staffs were able to do. Not knocking those previous staffs, but we'd been on a steady decline post-McNabb. So it all comes down to whether or not we give Shafer a little more time to see if the young talent begins to excel, IMO.

On the flipside, this current staff doesn't appear to be on the same level as their predecessors in terms of game planning. Game coaching might also be a net loss [hard to say, I questioned Marrone's in game coaching capabilities, but the game planning differential is stark and noteworthy]. Marrone didn't have nearly the What blowout losses that Shafer has had. And we probably don't lose yesterday with Marrone at the helm. :noidea:

I want this staff to succeed--I honestly do. But at some point, you have to question whether they are good enough. I think they can be. Maybe it is just a matter of making a few AC coaching changes to have things pop. I'm fairly well convinced that we're going to see an uptick in play next year, when we return an experienced QB and 7-9 starters on both sides of the ball. So in the main, the future looks promising. But are we wasting time?

Curious to hear your response, KCSU.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

You didn't know that in August 2012. Going into the season - you predicted that?! First year in the ACC with a new OC, HC, QB, and 2 starting WR's?

Cmon.

FSU, Clemson, GA Tech were good teams. We should have lost to them. Although we probably shouldn't have lost as bad. Wake, Tulane, NC State, Wagner were all bad football teams. We should have beaten all of them. Penn State, Pitt, BC, Northwestern, MD were all mediocre teams. We should have split against them. We were a 7-6 team that year. In terms of Ws & Ls we were where we belonged. The O however wasn't where it should have been nor the lack of competitiveness vs the good teams. Shafer deserved a C+ IMO.

 

[TheCusian]

Yards per play takes away any D factor. Dungey being out vs CMU & LSU is a fair point. Which is why I said we cannot tell yet if the O system is good enough yet.

That's your dip in production on the macro level, comparing the two seasons 5 games in.

2nd half of CMU - awful sub QB
1st half of LSU - awful sub QB
1st half of Wake - 1st start of ED career, understandably slow (play calling is conservative)
1st half of USF - 1st road start for ED, coming off injury (play calling conservative)
2nd half of UVa - don't know, laid an egg ... Maybe conservative holding onto lead play calling? First real What half IMO

 

[K Otto XLIV]

This is a really interesting OP. Question: what would be the line in the sand where Shafer has to go? If we only go 3-9 again?

Full disclosure: I like Shafer. I think his personality by and large would jazz up the fan base, if we could ever get things turned around. I really like what he and his ACs are doing on the recruiting trail, and it is obvious that they are bringing in higher caliber athletes / playmakers than the previous staffs were able to do. Not knocking those previous staffs, but we'd been on a steady decline post-McNabb. So it all comes down to whether or not we give Shafer a little more time to see if the young talent begins to excel, IMO.

On the flipside, this current staff doesn't appear to be on the same level as their predecessors in terms of game planning. Game coaching might also be a net loss [hard to say, I questioned Marrone's in game coaching capabilities, but the game planning differential is stark and noteworthy]. Marrone didn't have nearly the What blowout losses that Shafer has had. And we probably don't lose yesterday with Marrone at the helm. :noidea:

I want this staff to succeed--I honestly do. But at some point, you have to question whether they are good enough. I think they can be. Maybe it is just a matter of making a few AC coaching changes to have things pop. I'm fairly well convinced that we're going to see an uptick in play next year, when we return an experienced QB and 7-9 starters on both sides of the ball. So in the main, the future looks promising. But are we wasting time?

Curious to hear your response, KCSU.

Good post. Anything under 5-7 IMO and Coyle needs to at the very least force changes to the staff. There are a lot of questionable assistants IMO. But this is Shafer's band and he is loyal. Would he be willing to do a Beamer and clean house?

My biggest concern is the game planning. It feels like we are out coached too often, even against poor HCs. SU will never have a talent advantage vs its peers. So we need the coaching to get something out of nothing. Shafer hasn't shown the ability to do that yet.

 

[TheCusian]

FSU, Clemson, GA Tech were good teams. We should have lost to them. Although we probably shouldn't have lost as bad. Wake, Tulane, NC State, Wagner were all bad football teams. We should have beaten all of them. Penn State, Pitt, BC, Northwestern, MD were all mediocre teams. We should have split against them. We were a 7-6 team that year. In terms of Ws & Ls we were where we belonged. The O however wasn't where it should have been nor the lack of competitiveness vs the good teams. Shafer deserved a C+ IMO.

I remember. NC State had the better hire and better talent - before the season and before the game we were not favored. Wake had that stud WR and we were supposed to lose to them too. Northwestern was ranked and we were on the road starting cowboy Joe.

We didn't have a competent QB until the BC game.