Why Red’s “line change” sub pattern is killing this team

[HyattsCuse]

Agree. Also think if we had any guys - who have played their whole life - have any feel for how to play we wouldn't have 18 turnovers, a majority of which stem from lack of game sense.
Red is our biggest problem no doubt. I'm just not seeing all this high end skill level and basketball talent that others are. We don't know how to play the game.

I hear you. A lot of decision making that leads to careless turnovers. Some of the passes yesterday were lazy. Players definitely need to take some of the responsibility for that.

But the same things happened last year. Last year I thought we just had low IQ players that lacked game sense, but it’s happening again this year with a whole new team (JJ being the only returnee, not counting Donnie because he was hurt last year so hardly played).

So is it lack of game sense or confusion on what to do on the court due to the coaching problem? This year, I am leaning heavily to the latter. I can’t believe our guys are this clueless playing basketball.

 

[gmoney44]

The hockey subbing is crazy but to Reds defense yesterday, his closing lineup lost the game. We had the lead, they had to close it out. Kyle gets overpowered on a board, Donnie turns it over and gets blocked at the rim, George does his insanity. Subbing stinks but our closers blew yesterday's game.

Basketball is a game of runs and red is a run killer for us and a run extender for the opponent. The game shouldn’t have been that close to begin with.

Red is the master at keeping opponents in the game that we should crush. If you let garbage teams hang around you’re going to lose some of them.

 

[jimb]

Red CLEARLY has no sense on how or when to substitute during the game. He seems to have defaulted to some predetermined “line change” sub pattern similar to hockey. He’ll make a wholesale change of 3 or 4 players at the same time, usually at predetermined times in the half. This is absolutely the worst thing he can do. There’s no good outcome from this sub pattern. You either disrupt the flow of a team playing well, and hope the subs maintain that flow. Typically, when we’re playing well this ends up with a drop off in play.

The other end of the coin is waiting too long if the team or players are playing poorly. There’s no ability sub out a bad performing player for another when he sticks to his line change.

He seems to stick to the line change sub patterns for the first 12 minutes of each half. My assumption is that he thinks this is keeping his best players on the floor together for the maximum amount of time while also maximizing their “freshness” (minimum fatigue).

This substitution strategy clearly isn’t working. It tanked today’s game after we got up 9 in the 2nd half. It lead to games being closer than they should after we got up big (Pitt). It will lead to far more losses than wins.

Why he doesn’t make individual substitutions based on who is playing well and who is not is beyond me. It’s like he’s trying to come up with his own method of substitution. It’s an utter failure.

There’s a ton of other things Red is bad at, but he’s astronomically bad at substitutions.

It's insane.. (Definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results).

 

[Scooch]

Mike asked him specifically about this stretch of the first half. Red's answer was mind-boggling. He essentially said he would do it again because "the way we play you we can't play that way for 40 minutes." It was like he didn't understand the premise of the question, which was you had a lead, you took your players out, and you lost the lead instead of adding to it.

It's a preposterous answer because we don't play THAT intense of a defense. SU sure as heck isn't running 40 minutes of hell. Plus, our no-motion offense isn't particularly taxing for 3 or 4 of our guys every time down the floor.

There really seems to be a disconnect between the way Autry wants to play and the way we actually do. If he really thinks our guys are too gassed 8 minutes into the first half because of the way we play D, he's beyond hope.

 

[Cheriehoop]

It shouldn’t matter what we fans think of the substitution pattern, analytics should be telling the staff what is working and what isn’t. It also should be telling them what each player’s strengths and weaknesses are. It’s obvious that the 2nd line doesn’t play together well enough to keep a lead that the starters have, less increase it. There certainly has been enough games, data points to determine when a starter is struggling, what player off the bench should be the best replacement. I would also think that besides analytics all the practices would give the staff the experience and knowledge necessary also. If a starting player is struggling why substitute for almost the entire team or alternately just ignore it ? If starters are doing well, why substitute just for the sake of substituting? What message is that giving to the starters and the bench? Is there anyone who can play the key point guard position effectively if Nait George is struggling, in foul trouble, or injured? Are all the players being conditioned in practice to play hard defensively and offensively for 40 minutes? LGO!

 

[OrlandoCuse]

It shouldn’t matter what we fans think of the substitution pattern, analytics should be telling the staff what is working and what isn’t. It also should be telling them what each player’s strengths and weaknesses are. It’s obvious that the 2nd line doesn’t play together well enough to keep a lead that the starters have, less increase it. There certainly has been enough games, data points to determine when a starter is struggling what player off the bench should be the best replacement. I would also think that besides analytics all the practices would give the staff the experience and knowledge necessary also. If a starting player is struggling why substitute for almost the entire team or alternately just ignore it ? If starters are doing well, why substitute just for the sake of substituting? What message is that giving to the starters and the bench? Is there anyone who can play the key point guard position effectively if Nait George is struggling, in foul trouble, or injured? Are all the players being conditioned in practice to play hard defensively and offensively for 40 minutes? LGO!

There’s a chart floating around called “the kill shot” that shows college bball teams in a scatter plot. We’re grouped in with the “streakiest” category.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/s/yXWSYZjbYW

Hopefully that link works

 

[Consigliere]

He basically is doing NBA style subbing in the first half. It’s pre planned that Kingz, JJ or Nait and Kyle are going to sit the first dead ball after the under 16. The second half he tends to adjust by who’s playing well. That said those pre planned subs squashed all momentum we had yesterday.

There is absolutely a rationale for it. And Syracuse added advanced biometric monitoring to analyze when a player’s performance is likely to degrade from fatigue and help plan minutes. It also allows the key bench players to get on the court early to help them be ready to contribute later in the game. But doing it all at once with three key starters, especially when those starters are playing well, is tough to defend. And there should be enough evidence of that by this point to make a necessary adjustment.

 

[Scooch]

There is absolutely a rationale for it. And Syracuse added advanced biometric monitoring to analyze when a player’s performance is likely to degrade from fatigue and help plan minutes. It also allows the key bench players to get on the court early to help them be ready to contribute later in the game. But doing it all at once with three key starters, especially when those starters are playing well, is tough to defend. And there should be enough evidence of that by this point to make a necessary adjustment.

This is great info, thanks for sharing!

As someone who has spent his career in data and analytics, there is a blend of art and science that is necessary for optimal decision making. If Red is adhering to a rigid substitution schedule because of broad datasets, that's concerning. Hell, I'll argue that even 18 games into a season we're still dealing with a small sample size.

 

[Orangezoo]

There is absolutely a rationale for it. And Syracuse added advanced biometric monitoring to analyze when a player’s performance is likely to degrade from fatigue and help plan minutes. It also allows the key bench players to get on the court early to help them be ready to contribute later in the game. But doing it all at once with three key starters, especially when those starters are playing well, is tough to defend. And there should be enough evidence of that by this point to make a necessary adjustment.

Right - this goes to adjustments in general and the intersection of analytics, basketball IQ and leadership/player management. Without soundness in the last two items you get a scripted approach and then then deer in the headlights confusion/numbness as to making corrections. We have seen that numbness to adjustments happen a lot under Red. It’s cost him wins for sure and has been the most pronounced this year with the spotlight on him. It’s also resulted in leads fading against weaker opponents when those leads are key for helping things like the NET.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Right - this goes to adjustments in general and the intersection of analytics, basketball IQ and leadership/player management. Without soundness in the last two items you get a scripted approach and then then deer in the headlights confusion/numbness as to making corrections. We have seen that numbness to adjustments happen a lot under Red. It’s cost him wins for sure and has been the most pronounced this year with the spotlight on him. It’s also resulted in leads fading against weaker opponents when those leads are key for helping things like the NET.

Exactly.

It’s one thing to HAVE the analytics (they do)

It’s another thing to UNDERSTAND the analytics (probably, but they may not fully understand them)

It’s another thing to know how to APPLY the analytics (I can tell they don’t)

 

[atlanticuse]

Think Alex Kline AI Analytics has a hand in this?
Smart people make adjustments when things aren’t working.
Red… hasn’t.

Like: we’ve lost to Hofstra and BC, and got blown out by Iowa state.
Last year we got murdered in the second half.

 

[JonB]

It shouldn’t matter what we fans think of the substitution pattern, analytics should be telling the staff what is working and what isn’t. It also should be telling them what each player’s strengths and weaknesses are. It’s obvious that the 2nd line doesn’t play together well enough to keep a lead that the starters have, less increase it. There certainly has been enough games, data points to determine when a starter is struggling, what player off the bench should be the best replacement. I would also think that besides analytics all the practices would give the staff the experience and knowledge necessary also. If a starting player is struggling why substitute for almost the entire team or alternately just ignore it ? If starters are doing well, why substitute just for the sake of substituting? What message is that giving to the starters and the bench? Is there anyone who can play the key point guard position effectively if Nait George is struggling, in foul trouble, or injured? Are all the players being conditioned in practice to play hard defensively and offensively for 40 minutes? LGO!

I don’t think they have much analytics this year. That guy went to the New York Knicks. I think that might actually be the problem. I also heard a reporter mentioned the analytics of I think it was Sadiq White, and Autry dismissed it, saying “ahhh he’s playing fine”. Ok great, but I think what we are seeing is the difference in a coach who was a players coach and a guy JB who would just straight up say this guy sucks. He needs to get better. He’s not ready! If I had another player, he wouldn’t play a minute!

 

[Jake]

Just saw the Mike Waters article. He essentially frames that story in a manner that suggests it’s poor coaching. When you’ve turned Mike Waters…

And let’s be honest, it is all so shocking to Syracuse fans because we spent the past 25 years (at least) being told “20 year old kids don’t get tired”. JB played guys until their tongues dragged. One of my favorite quotes from him goes back to the late 80s. Derrick Coleman got hurt in a game and JB left him out there. He response gave a great insight into his philosophy. It was something like “50 percent of Derrick Coleman is better than 100 percent of Derek Brower”.

We’ve gone from one extreme to the other. I suspect the answer is somewhere in between. That first substitution group is clearly scripted. I don’t think I recall JB sending three guys in at once ever. It certainly was a rarity.

But this all goes back to my #1 complaint. Red refuses to use the bench as a teaching tool. Guys get designated minutes regardless of performance. I understand it’s tough in a world where guys on the bench are getting paid, but everyone is happier winning.

 

[SU94]

Red CLEARLY has no sense on how or when to substitute during the game. He seems to have defaulted to some predetermined “line change” sub pattern similar to hockey. He’ll make a wholesale change of 3 or 4 players at the same time, usually at predetermined times in the half. This is absolutely the worst thing he can do. There’s no good outcome from this sub pattern. You either disrupt the flow of a team playing well, and hope the subs maintain that flow. Typically, when we’re playing well this ends up with a drop off in play.

The other end of the coin is waiting too long if the team or players are playing poorly. There’s no ability sub out a bad performing player for another when he sticks to his line change.

He seems to stick to the line change sub patterns for the first 12 minutes of each half. My assumption is that he thinks this is keeping his best players on the floor together for the maximum amount of time while also maximizing their “freshness” (minimum fatigue).

This substitution strategy clearly isn’t working. It tanked today’s game after we got up 9 in the 2nd half. It lead to games being closer than they should after we got up big (Pitt). It will lead to far more losses than wins.

Why he doesn’t make individual substitutions based on who is playing well and who is not is beyond me. It’s like he’s trying to come up with his own method of substitution. It’s an utter failure.

There’s a ton of other things Red is bad at, but he’s astronomically bad at substitutions.

Is not this the same SU MBB board where everyone starts divvying out allocated minutes during the summer? I mean, we’ve all seen the lists.

George 31
Kings 28
Starling 24
Sadiq 22 (5 start did not come to sit)

Those type of lists.

If I am mistaken, just set me straight.

 

[tbonezone]

i don't see the issue talent wise. other than souare where's the major talent drop off from the bench to the starters ? if the issue is the bench guys are not prepared to enter the game at full speed then that's not on the coach it's on the players. and any bench dude will tell you they gonna practice harder and follow the game closer when they know they're going to see the floor early and not ride the pine all game. and the asst coaches need to be in every subs ear as soon they exit the court explaining what needs to improve and not just chomping gum .

 

[justgold315]

Red refuses to use the bench as a teaching tool

People are blaming George and Donnie for bad turnovers, but Red should have pulled Donnie immediately after the first cross court pass through 4 defenders. Even if he was out 30 secs, Donnie has to learn he can't do that, especially give that occurred a second time in the second half. George should have sat a few times after boneheaded turnovers as well.

 

[2B20Again]

Red CLEARLY has no sense on how or when to substitute during the game. He seems to have defaulted to some predetermined “line change” sub pattern similar to hockey. He’ll make a wholesale change of 3 or 4 players at the same time, usually at predetermined times in the half. Makes too much sense. If your starting 5 are yourThis is absolutely the worst thing he can do. There’s no good outcome from this sub pattern. You either disrupt the flow of a team playing well, and hope the subs maintain that flow. Typically, when we’re playing well this ends up with a drop off in play.

The other end of the coin is waiting too long if the team or players are playing poorly. There’s no ability sub out a bad performing player for another when he sticks to his line change.

He seems to stick to the line change sub patterns for the first 12 minutes of each half. My assumption is that he thinks this is keeping his best players on the floor together for the maximum amount of time while also maximizing their “freshness” (minimum fatigue).

This substitution strategy clearly isn’t working. It tanked today’s game after we got up 9 in the 2nd half. It lead to games being closer than they should after we got up big (Pitt). It will lead to far more losses than wins.

Why he doesn’t make individual substitutions based on who is playing well and who is not is beyond me. It’s like he’s trying to come up with his own method of substitution. It’s an utter failure.

There’s a ton of other things Red is bad at, but he’s astronomically bad at substitutions.

makes no sense. If you best 5 are starting, get a feel for the flow and how each player is playing. Then sub as needed for players who are struggling or are off their game, or if they are winded. Only reason for the hockey line change is to get minutes for reserve so they hang around because they are getting minutes. Bad strategy. JB like him or not tried to have his best players on the court at all times. Love him or hate him. He won a lot of games. I know it’s a different time but basket is same height, court is the same length and with. Just play the players playing well. Out

 

[2B20Again]

People are blaming George and Donnie for bad turnovers, but Red should have pulled Donnie immediately after the first cross court pass through 4 defenders. Even if he was out 30 secs, Donnie has to learn he can't do that, especially give that occurred a second time in the second half. George should have sat a few times after boneheaded turnovers as well.

. 100%

 

[Sdot]

If I was coaching this team from Virginia tech to end of season I’d play the 5 best until they got in foul trouble or asked to be subbed. Tired of seeing our best player that game get subbed out and then come back streaky.

 

[Chip]

Even the manager at McDonalds knows that you stagger everyone's lunch breaks. You don't send the whole crew to the break room at the same time.

Are you running the one on Erie Blvd over towards LeMoyne? Always felt that was a tight ship, as far as Mickey D's go.

 

[tbonezone]

makes no sense. If you best 5 are starting, get a feel for the flow and how each player is playing. Then sub as needed for players who are struggling or are off their game, or if they are winded. Only reason for the hockey line change is to get minutes for reserve so they hang around because they are getting minutes. Bad strategy. JB like him or not tried to have his best players on the court at all times. Love him or hate him. He won a lot of games. I know it’s a different time but basket is same height, court is the same length and with. Just play the players playing well. Out

your argument as stated implies that our players don't get winded and that actual game experience doesn't make next years players better . (we're losing our core) also implies that the bench players can't contribute . all false premises.

 

[85SUAlum]

Got it. Thanks for the clarification. I think we agree. Basically I think what's being said on this Board is "He has no clue what he's doing". Unfortunately. We saw it last year. But last year I stopped watching after the loss to Gtown in mid-December. Didn't watch another game. Don't know what I'm going to do now. Often I watch with the audio off because I can't stand listening to the announcers when we're losing and not playing well. Did anyone really think we were going to win when it went to OT? I didn't.

I've developed a watching strategy now where I'll wait until the game is over and then, if they win, I'll watch the replay recorded on YouTubeTV or the ESPN replay. Saves me a lot of stress and is much better for my blood pressure. Sometimes I'll follow along with the ESPN gamecast. I've made the mistake a couple of times tuning in in the 2nd half thinking they were cruising to an easy win only to watch them blow a big lead and have it come down to a tense final couple minutes. No more of that - no watching until the result is final. Even then when I know the result, it's still a bit stressful watching them blow a lead.

 

[tptcuse]

I've developed a watching strategy now where I'll wait until the game is over and then, if they win, I'll watch the replay recorded on YouTubeTV or the ESPN replay. Saves me a lot of stress and is much better for my blood pressure. Sometimes I'll follow along with the ESPN gamecast. I've made the mistake a couple of times tuning in in the 2nd half thinking they were cruising to an easy win only to watch them blow a big lead and have it come down to a tense final couple minutes. No more of that - no watching until the result is final. Even then when I know the result, it's still a bit stressful watching them blow a lead.

I get it but that just makes me sad to read.

 

[CardiacCuse]

It shouldn’t matter what we fans think of the substitution pattern, analytics should be telling the staff what is working and what isn’t. It also should be telling them what each player’s strengths and weaknesses are. It’s obvious that the 2nd line doesn’t play together well enough to keep a lead that the starters have, less increase it. There certainly has been enough games, data points to determine when a starter is struggling, what player off the bench should be the best replacement. I would also think that besides analytics all the practices would give the staff the experience and knowledge necessary also. If a starting player is struggling why substitute for almost the entire team or alternately just ignore it ? If starters are doing well, why substitute just for the sake of substituting? What message is that giving to the starters and the bench? Is there anyone who can play the key point guard position effectively if Nait George is struggling, in foul trouble, or injured? Are all the players being conditioned in practice to play hard defensively and offensively for 40 minutes? LGO!

one of the big problems with this is all of the guys want to be the star. they wont say it in public interviews but deep down they all want it. its a good thing.

kiyan for example wants to be the star of the team. so in his mind....it has to be possible

red's subbing style kills the dream for everyone that isnt jj or donnie

betsey went 3 of 3 from 3 early in a recent game and barely got a shot the rest of the game

theres no rhyme or reason

the subbing patterns need to send a message to the bench players - hey, if you play really well - youre going to get more minutes!!!!

thats not what red does. if a bench player kills it in the first half he often doesnt get much chance the rest of the game.

players need to know - hey my coach is paying attention - he gets it...he knows if im playing well, hes gonna keep me out there...

its the opposite under red. performance doesnt determine minute/usage that much - it does a little but not near as much as it could

as is, it acts as a dampener of player motivation - and weve seen the bench players basically all get worse as the season has gone on

i mean if youre a bench player and you know your role is pretty much locked in - say youre a 2 guard behind jj or a PF behind donnie...theres literally nothing you can do to get a bigger role...which again kills motivation

 

[Orangezoo]

I've developed a watching strategy now where I'll wait until the game is over and then, if they win, I'll watch the replay recorded on YouTubeTV or the ESPN replay. Saves me a lot of stress and is much better for my blood pressure. Sometimes I'll follow along with the ESPN gamecast. I've made the mistake a couple of times tuning in in the 2nd half thinking they were cruising to an easy win only to watch them blow a big lead and have it come down to a tense final couple minutes. No more of that - no watching until the result is final. Even then when I know the result, it's still a bit stressful watching them blow a lead.

Admittedly I did the same a lot this year at least more than ever before.