what happens with the IVY Srs is the big question..
When they first suspended the season (IVY was the first to do so), I beleive they said they were going to apply for a waiver to get the extra year back. Not sure if they will change their minds. I beleive the Patriot League is the same as the IVY (I never realized this) in that they don't allow red-shirts, so they are an additional conference to watch.
This really helps schools with graduate programs, and really hurts the programs that don't. As you can see by the first wave of guys who entered the portal, they all came from smaller schools. So many factors at play, but I do wonder what schools will benefit from an influx of transfers. Schools like Hobart, Colgate, etc won't be able to offer classes to guys who may want to play there for an extra year. It might be that only schools in the Big 10/ACC/Big East are able to take advantage, but again, they'll have big rosters already with an extra freshmen class on the way. I guess it all depends on the players in question.
Take Griffin Brown for instance, very good player for Colgate - what would his market be? Not a superstar player, but he can certainly perform at a high level. Since every school theoretically gets all returning starters back, he'd be limited to the schools that would "lose" a guy who is a starter but decides he is done with school, for whatever reason. How many guys will that be? Hard to say - if you weren't on a very good team maybe you decide to move on. If you were though, and feel like there is unfinished business (and there are a lot of teams who last year could have said they had a shot at the trophy), I sense you might want to come back. Furthermore, even if a starter does move on, you have to hope the team doesn't have a player already on the roster that the coach has penciled in already. Maybe there are more coaches out there in need of a quick fix than I think. So in the end, you need a school that offers a masters program, they need to have an open spot, and the coach has to be willing to bring on a guy for one year only. Plus you are competing with a bunch of other players in the exact same situation.
A bunch of DIII players entered the portal as well, I have to imagine D-I will be their only option if they were on track to graduate. Maybe schools like Rutgers, Michigan and Big East, CAA teams that take advantage. I feel like the Ivy/ACC and top Big 10 teams won't really partake much in the transfer market, but I certainly could be wrong.
The real wild card of course is the underclassmen who thought they were going to compete for spots next year. For players at SU who redshirted this past year, have to imagine they won't want to redshirt again. Maybe they like SU so much they decide its worth staying, but a group will want to move on. Maybe the smaller schools like Colgate and Hobart refill their ranks with kids like this, but without graduate programs, I think they'd have to be okay with guys who are okay doing an undergrad degree in five years instead of four. I know kids do this, I just don't know how many. But again, they are put at a disadvantage. Again, it seems like though lower performing Big 10/Big East/CAA teams take advantage. The Patriot League could be a wild card.
More ramblings but I do feel bad for the incoming freshmen, they will most likely miss their senior year of high school and then have to sit on the bench for another year. Coaches will have to get creative to keep everyone happy. It might not be possible, but since they signed their NLI, they might be "stuck". The transfer market might just ramp up all over again next summer as well with disaffected kids who didn't like sitting on the bench.
Would be nice to have a sense of how much the 12.5 scholarship allotment was going to the senior class this year. The school might not have to fork over that much more money to the senior class, if they weren't getting that much to begin with. Impossible to know however without the numbers in front of us.