No second round guarantee for Tyus

[Day2]

After next year Tyler Ennis will have 8 million in career earnings. Most people don't make that in a lifetime.

JaMarcus Russell made a lot more than $8 million.

 

[reedny]

My issue was with people who assume Battle will be a good defender and Huerter will not when they tested out as the same athlete at the combine. It makes no sense to me.

You might be right .. I've only seen him play once - against SU - and he could have been nicked up. Frank and Tyus were walking by him. He looked athletic in the work-out photos we saw. And I'm only judging by one game, but it seemed pretty obvious.

 

[Cusefan0307]

JaMarcus Russell made a lot more than $8 million.

So why are we poo pooing busts? Just because they embarrass schools? I thought the object was to make money.

 

[Day2]

So why are we poo pooing busts? Just because they embarrass schools? I thought the object was to make money.

Too much of a straw man for me to respond.

 

[Day2]

well maybe you can say he hasn't lived up to the expectations of the 18th draft pick (many haven't) but to say he's been a bust is completely wrong.

Like I said, semantics. We probably agree on everything but the label.

 

[doc05]

Fair point. But then again, there are numerous ways that he could enhance his profile, none of which are far fetched.

• With better offensive players around him, he might not have to do so much -- so his efficiency rating overall might improve
• With other shooters spacing the floor [and Tyus not having to crank up so many shots at the end of the shot clock], his three point shooting % might improve due to him having more open looks
• With better scorers on the floor, his assist totals might rise, and he could show more capabilities as a play maker
• He'd have another year to improve his ball handling and expand his offensive diversification as a dribble-drive threat
• He could garner publicity being the main cog of a highly rated team poised to make a deep tournament run

Even if his usage / scoring / minutes go down, he could enhance his stock by fine tuning some of the rawer elements of his game [i.e., ball handling, passing, etc.] and improving his overall efficiency.

Frankly, it is criminal that he's rated below some of the other wings in this class [I'll own that opinion], but at least part of that is due to the perception that his offensive production was inflated by him having an unabashed green light. He could change that perception by coming back, not being forced to play 40+ minutes every game, by showing improved shot selection as a function of not being forced to do too much, and by showing that he's a better shooter overall than he's shown.

I understand those points and theoretically it's possible he improves his game and stock. He is the one getting the feedback though, and I think since a lot of scouts really draft on potential, they see what his athleticism is and feel they have enough data already. If he is getting feedback saying staying a year really won't guaranty a first round pick, I could see him staying in the draft. I always think of John Wallace -- his game improved tremendously his senior year. Didn't really help his draft stock much, if at all. Tyus to me just screams one of those good college players who will not transition well at the next level. My guess is scouts have similar thoughts.

 

[Day2]

I understand those points and theoretically it's possible he improves his game and stock. He is the one getting the feedback though, and I think since a lot of scouts really draft on potential, they see what his athleticism is and feel they have enough data already. If he is getting feedback saying staying a year really won't guaranty a first round pick, I could see him staying in the draft. I always think of John Wallace -- his game improved tremendously his senior year. Didn't really help his draft stock much, if at all. Tyus to me just screams one of those good college players who will not transition well at the next level. My guess is scouts have similar thoughts.

Didn't Wallace do poorly in interviews? And was he pulled over before or after the draft?

 

[two3zone]

Didn't Wallace do poorly in interviews? And was he pulled over before or after the draft?

Arrested for disorderly conduct, but not sure if it was before or after the draft.

 

[doc05]

Didn't Wallace do poorly in interviews? And was he pulled over before or after the draft?

Don't recall anything about interviews, but everyone including him was disappointed he went 18 after doing everything he could possibly do as a senior except bring home the trophy. The arrest was never brought up as an issue of why he didn't go higher. He's just one of many examples though. It worked for him for having such a magical season, but he could have left after his junior year and would have been drafted in a similar spot.

 

[Day2]

Don't recall anything about interviews, but everyone including him was disappointed he went 18 after doing everything he could possibly do as a senior except bring home the trophy. The arrest was never brought up as an issue of why he didn't go higher. He's just one of many examples though. It worked for him for having such a magical season, but he could have left after his junior year and would have been drafted in a similar spot.

Oh yeah, definitely disappointing. As was his career, unfortunately. I don't think he regrets coming back, though.

 

[RF2044]

I understand those points and theoretically it's possible he improves his game and stock. He is the one getting the feedback though, and I think since a lot of scouts really draft on potential, they see what his athleticism is and feel they have enough data already. If he is getting feedback saying staying a year really won't guaranty a first round pick, I could see him staying in the draft. I always think of John Wallace -- his game improved tremendously his senior year. Didn't really help his draft stock much, if at all. Tyus to me just screams one of those good college players who will not transition well at the next level. My guess is scouts have similar thoughts.

Wallace's stock did not improve because he was a 6-7 interior player who weighed 215 lbs. No more, no less.

 

[Jake]

The exact 18th pick? Usually around 7 points per game.

I should've elaborated more - right after the lottery you either want a foreigner to stash or a rotational guy - he's on his 4th team in 4 years and is a deep bench player.

Ennis 10000% left at the right time - but he's a below average pick for a guy going 15-20

He did, but he almost didn't. My understanding is that Toronto backed of their "guarantee" to draft him a day or so before the draft. His agent scrambled to find another taker. Had to essentially play hard ball with Phoenix and told them they wouldn't have access to one of his clients who was a free agent that Phoenix wanted that year if they didn't take Ennis. Which is why people were scratching their heads when Phoenix took Ennis in the first round even though they were set at PG.

Agents have waaaaay to much power on draft day.

 

[DoctorBombay]

Did winning the national championship boost or hurt Jalen Brunson? Or did the body of work over the course of the season do that?

Any team can win a championship with their best player mia if the team does well.

Obviously it boosted him, but that's not the issue. His overall body of work also included TWO NC's, allowing teams to grade him on other metrics such as leadership and bball IQ. If Nova would've gone out in the 1st or 2nd weekend his four years, I submit Brunson doesn't get a look- even with his good regular season body of work. Being a smallish PG, its his performing well in the Tourney & being part of 2 NC squads, that force GM's to give him a serious look in the draft. Moreso than his overall BOW, IMO.

 

[Waltdods]

Wallace's stock did not improve because he was a 6-7 interior player who weighed 215 lbs. No more, no less.

He had almost literally the best possible senior season someone could have and was drafted probably exactly where he would have been drafted a year before. He also shot 42 percent on a respectable number of threes as a senior after basically not taking them his first three years. Sure, there was a reason he went where he did (tho I will always be convinced it had more to do with his lackadaisical defense than his size or anything about his offensive game - he averaged 14 Ppg one year in the nba), and this reason was always there. But that’s probably true of all these guys, including battle. It’s possible he’ll improve in an unexpected way, possible he’ll regress, and probably most likely he (like JW) will be in the same place a year later.

But JW did everything people say battle needs to do - expanded his game, showed he could shoot, and won on the biggest stage. It did him no good in terms of draft stock.

 

[OrangeDW]

Arrested for disorderly conduct, but not sure if it was before or after the draft.

It was after the draft later in the summer back home in Rochester. Got ticketed for having his music too loud, and then arrested for continuing to play it loudly is the story I remember.

 

[shu 49]

Didn't Wallace do poorly in interviews? And was he pulled over before or after the draft?

I remember that they kinda compared him to Derrick Colemen in his demeanor.

 

[cbcuse3]

Anyone know Isaiah?

 

[RF2044]

He had almost literally the best possible senior season someone could have and was drafted probably exactly where he would have been drafted a year before. He also shot 42 percent on a respectable number of threes as a senior after basically not taking them his first three years. Sure, there was a reason he went where he did (tho I will always be convinced it had more to do with his lackadaisical defense than his size or anything about his offensive game - he averaged 14 Ppg one year in the nba), and this reason was always there. But that’s probably true of all these guys, including battle. It’s possible he’ll improve in an unexpected way, possible he’ll regress, and probably most likely he (like JW) will be in the same place a year later.

But JW did everything people say battle needs to do - expanded his game, showed he could shoot, and won on the biggest stage. It did him no good in terms of draft stock.

Again, why do you think that is? It's because he was too small to be an interior player, which was his game. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Why did coming back not hurt Derrick Coleman's draft stock? You can't just cherry pick examples sans context.

Also, with all due respect to you waltdods (as a great overall poster), what are you're basing your assertion on that his draft stock was the same after his junior year? I'm willing to bet that walls to stop was anywhere close to what it would have been after his junior year? Maybe in the modern NBA and the way things happen in terms of the draft, but I doubt that was the case back in 1996.

 

[rrlbees]

Anyone know Isaiah?

sounds like a team manager type.

 

[manleyzoo]

Everybody talks endlessly about draft stock, draft position, which round, how much money, blah, blah. That's nowhere near the point, as Boeheim has pointed out a number of times. After the first 10-11 picks, it's not where you get picked, it's if you have opportunities with the team that picks you. If there's possibilities for you with the team that picks you, no matter what the round, you might get a chance or two to stick around. His point is there's a fair amount of luck involved. Grant is a perfect case in point. Philly had playing time available. Most NBA teams don't. As for the money and you'll have more than most ppl make in a lifetime, blah, blah, that's BS. It goes just about as fast as you get it. The best thing about getting a second contract is players have blown all the money from the first.

 

[Waltdods]

Again, why do you think that is? It's because he was too small to be an interior player, which was his game. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Why did coming back not hurt Derrick Coleman's draft stock? You can't just cherry pick examples sans context.

Also, with all due respect to you waltdods (as a great overall poster), what are you're basing your assertion on that his draft stock was the same after his junior year? I'm willing to bet that walls to stop was anywhere close to what it would have been after his junior year? Maybe in the modern NBA and the way things happen in terms of the draft, but I doubt that was the case back in 1996.

It’s obviously hard to find draft predictions from 1995 but my recollection was that he was slotted as a mid to late first round pick after his junior year. Here’s one (far from perfect) contemporaneous article saying the same thing: ON THE MARK WALLACE STORY ONE FOR BOOK

I don’t think Coleman was hurt by staying a year but I don’t think he was helped much either. (And 1990 was a different time for underclassmen.)

And that’s really my point, which is essentially the same point you make in your first paragraph: by the time they’ve played a couple years, the nba has a pretty good idea of who these guys are. Just continuing on your development curve isn’t going to improve your stock. The most likely outcome is that the player is in the same spot after another year as he was before. Could be worse, could be better, but I would argue that ex ante the very strong expectation should be that you’ll be exactly the same.

I do think that if you are currently a borderline nba player (which battle probably is), you might want the variance. That’s where battle might be - I don’t think the odds are good that he’ll improve his position by coming back, but the odds aren’t zero, and if you’re looking at going undrafted or to a non guaranteed slot, it might be worth the gamble.

 

[Waltdods]

Everybody talks endlessly about draft stock, draft position, which round, how much money, blah, blah. That's nowhere near the point, as Boeheim has pointed out a number of times. After the first 10-11 picks, it's not where you get picked, it's if you have opportunities with the team that picks you. If there's possibilities for you with the team that picks you, no matter what the round, you might get a chance or two to stick around. His point is there's a fair amount of luck involved. Grant is a perfect case in point. Philly had playing time available. Most NBA teams don't. As for the money and you'll have more than most ppl make in a lifetime, blah, blah, that's BS. It goes just about as fast as you get it. The best thing about getting a second contract is players have blown all the money from the first.

Boeheim is not a very good source on these things. He wants his players to stay and is very good at finding reasons they should. (Here, for example, is JB arguing that both Ennis and grant made the wrong decision, positions i think even the most anti-NBAers on this board have been hesitant to advance: Boeheim's agenda rings hollow)

It’s true there is a ton of luck involved. But that doesn’t mean the process is random. You want to be a higher pick because 1) you get more money, (2) your chances of a guaranteed contract are higher, 3) the team has invested more in you. Things can go wrong or right in any slot. But you’d rather things go wrong after you’ve banked a couple million than before. Saying “well, there’s a lot of luck involved” is true of basically everything in life; it’s not a reason to avoid trying to make the best decision possible.

 

[orangepassion]

Who's Tyus Battle?
Isaiah Freedman@isaiahfreedman3
https://twitter.com/isaiahfreedman3/status/1001591240880631808
My personal belief is that Tyus Battle leaves for the draft. But I spoke to someone who knows someone close to Battle who believes he returns to school. Basically, nobody knows anything
6:28 PM - May 29, 2018

• https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1001591240880631808

 

[manleyzoo]

I read the SBNation piece when it came out. Who's a better source on this than Boeheim? Agents, GMs, scouts? History says you can't believe anything they tell you. Boeheim has been around NBA players in, what is it, three Olympics. I'd think he'd have a pretty good idea from the players' perspective of how things actually work.

"The disappointing part is, NBA teams really don't even want the draft picks after the first 15 (picks). They would rather trade them. Give 'em away, whatever. Because they don't want that guy, they've got too many guys and don't want to give that guy guaranteed money. So, you'll find a lot of NBA teams trade those picks."

He's right.

C'mon, players don't bank the money. If they did, 60% or more wouldn't be broke after five years in the league.

 

[orangenauburn]

Ultimately I believe it comes down to where Tyus, his dad, and his agent feel they can get This drafted (team, not draft position) that will determine if he stays or goes. If he can get drafted in San Antonio in 2nd, that may be more enticing then Philly or Milwaukee 2nd round