A lot of our games this year JB seems like early in the game he almost wants the other team to take 3's. I think he believes that even if they do make a few (some teams have) as far as he's concerned let em shoot. I think he thinks the percentages are eventually going to even out.
Only if they continue to be hot from 3 he sicks the guards and forwards on them. The zone becomes much more aggressive on the wings and the top of the key. It's worked.
Good observation, bevo. In fact, this has been Boeheim's approach for years. He has said in coaching clinics that he feels when opponents hit contested three-pointers early, it tends to be fool's gold. Opposing teams tend to fall in love with that, which is not a high-percentage shot. The law of averages dictates that they will eventually miss those shots, and we will benefit from that.
He has also said that you cannot play zone if you do not recognize and adjust to great shooters--so true. Duke presents a challenge in that they have several players that can shoot.
I would guess that Boeheim will elect to start out in our "standard" zone to see how Duke attacks it, and then adjust accordingly. That will mean attempting to keep Duke out of the paint, forcing them to take contested three-pointers. Duke hitting a few contested three-pointers early doesn't bother me; if they score in the paint several times early, I will worry, because that is the recipe for foul trouble and more uncontested threes as the game progresses.
If Duke makes a few contested threes early, Coach B will adjust the zone to discourage how they are attacking, whether that be by screening the top of the zone, high-post entry, or by overloading one side of the floor. If that doesn't work, he'll shade defenders to the hot the shooter(s), which should reduce that player's effectiveness. However, that will open us up to more interior attacks.
In the end, the keys defensively, as so often they are against any team, will be to reduce Duke's ability to penetrate (by dribble or pass) and to limit the second-chance opportunities. Either of these will lead to zone collapses, which would allow Duke more "uncontested" three-pointers as we scramble to recover.