2024 Bracketology

[OrangeXtreme]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/il-s-2024-bracketology-second-look-how-informed-are-we-/63177

4. Syracuse (11-4)
RPI: 5
SOS: 2
Top 5 Wins: Johns Hopkins, Duke
Top 6-10 Wins: Virginia
Top 11-20 Wins: Colgate
Non Top-20 Losses: None

 

[FloridaCuse]

They were supposed to have a 5 year rotation where every ACC school would get to host twice in 10 years.

Covid ended the ACC's plans. They haven't even had an ACCT for several years. This is the 1st year it's being brought back.

We've always joked that it's an annual fundraiser because the ACC has never had enough teams to be considered for an AQ (except for 1-2 years when SU and ND joined and before Maryland left.

Thanks. I remember they were supposed to rotate. I guess until it became time for Syracuse to host.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Stupid question - with a top four NCAA seed seemingly done does SU actually need to do this? Other than for the spirit of competition?

Yes, could be the difference between a 5 seed and the 2 seed.

 

[Powellfan]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/il-s-2024-bracketology-second-look-how-informed-are-we-/63177

4. Syracuse (11-4)
RPI: 5
SOS: 2
Top 5 Wins: Johns Hopkins, Duke
Top 6-10 Wins: Virginia
Top 11-20 Wins: Colgate
Non Top-20 Losses: None

I thought Terry's rational was interesting. Denver's SOS is 12 while Syracuse's is two. If they are that close in terms of resume, I would think that should give SU some sort of bump over Denver. But Terry gives the edge to Denver because of RPI.

• "Denver vs. Syracuse is probably the hardest choice. RPI edge and fewer losses vs. one additional Top 5 win and a better SOS? I shaded RPI because the Committee went straight RPI in last week's rankings release."

In general I would say the other side of the bracket looks a little more manageable, and they would potentially avoid Notre Dame until the championship game, but again, none of these paths are "easy".

 

[fieldystick]

I thought Terry's rational was interesting. Denver's SOS is 12 while Syracuse's is two. If they are that close in terms of resume, I would think that should give SU some sort of bump over Denver. But Terry gives the edge to Denver because of RPI.

• "Denver vs. Syracuse is probably the hardest choice. RPI edge and fewer losses vs. one additional Top 5 win and a better SOS? I shaded RPI because the Committee went straight RPI in last week's rankings release."

In general I would say the other side of the bracket looks a little more manageable, and they would potentially avoid Notre Dame until the championship game, but again, none of these paths are "easy".

A snippet from my DMs with Terry. This is me speaking.

 

[Gettysbrg10]

Definitely gonna be Duke. Everyone prepare for Oneil and Naso part Deux

Agreed.

I can't see Bresci making it to next year - especially if Duffy is heading out? I'm guessing - you guys know more than me. If that does happen it'll be interesting to see what happens with the Petros.

 

[Whitey23]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/il-s-2024-bracketology-second-look-how-informed-are-we-/63177

4. Syracuse (11-4)
RPI: 5
SOS: 2
Top 5 Wins: Johns Hopkins, Duke
Top 6-10 Wins: Virginia
Top 11-20 Wins: Colgate
Non Top-20 Losses: None

#4 is a tough spot! Rather be #6 in that draw i think.

 

[fieldystick]

#4 is a tough spot! Rather be #6 in that draw i think.

You've correctly identified that there is a big mismatch between Denver's metrics and how good most people perceive them to be.

If Denver does win the Big East and does get a top ~5 seed, whichever quadrant of the bracket ends up with Denver, that's going to be the one that people immediately look at and say: "oh, X team (the other seed in that quadrant) has an easy path to the Final Four!"

 

[Powellfan]

Agreed.

I can't see Bresci making it to next year - especially if Duffy is heading out? I'm guessing - you guys know more than me. If that does happen it'll be interesting to see what happens with the Petros.

Sorry, Duffy isn't going anywhere (that I know of at least) - I think you might be referring to my post about him being out. He's hurt with a giant knee brace, so I am guessing he's not playing this weekend. That's all.

No idea what happens with Breschi, but they juts gave him an oddly timed extension. The whole thing is weird (firing and demoting his assistants, waiting so long into the offseason to extend him, only giving him three years when most places I believe give out five year deals), but I don't see them moving on this off season. I think the AD would look pretty silly.

 

[fieldystick]

No idea what happens with Breschi, but they juts gave him an oddly timed extension. The whole thing is weird (firing and demoting his assistants, waiting so long into the offseason to extend him, only giving him three years when most places I believe give out five year deals), but I don't see them moving on this off season. I think the AD would look pretty silly.

Completely off topic, I know:

But letting Brown hire Geoff Collins as the DC in football - I think the AD already does look very silly!

 

[upperdeck]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/il-s-2024-bracketology-second-look-how-informed-are-we-/63177

4. Syracuse (11-4)
RPI: 5
SOS: 2
Top 5 Wins: Johns Hopkins, Duke
Top 6-10 Wins: Virginia
Top 11-20 Wins: Colgate
Non Top-20 Losses: None

In this view.. Cornell rematches to PSU who they lost to, then ND who they lose to, then Syracuse who they beat and the perhaps Denver who they lost to..

Syracuse would play St joes, then rematch to army/JHU , then cornell/ND who they lost to then Duke/Virg?

rematch city.

 

[cuselaxss26]

almost seems like they don’t want syracuse to make it as much as possible lol. The hate continues !

 

[fieldystick]

Stevens:

NCAA Bracketology: No Shockers

Nothing about the seeding should come as a shock, at least as things stand right now.

www.usalacrosse.com

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Cornell

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Towson, Md.

(3) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Virginia vs. Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. Yale
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Towson

Last three included: Penn State, Yale, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: Utah
Moving out: Air Force
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

---

3rd through 7th are straight RPI. I have to admit: I'm a bit surprised he also has Syracuse below Denver. I expected those two to be flipped, but otherwise this is basically what I expected from him.

 

[orange79]

Stevens:

NCAA Bracketology: No Shockers

Nothing about the seeding should come as a shock, at least as things stand right now.

www.usalacrosse.com

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Cornell

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Towson, Md.

(3) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Virginia vs. Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. Yale
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Towson

Last three included: Penn State, Yale, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: Utah
Moving out: Air Force
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

---

Top 7 are straight RPI. I have to admit: I'm a bit surprised he also has Syracuse below Denver. I expected those two to be flipped, but otherwise this is basically what I expected from him.

 

[wgdsr]

Sorry, Duffy isn't going anywhere (that I know of at least) - I think you might be referring to my post about him being out. He's hurt with a giant knee brace, so I am guessing he's not playing this weekend. That's all.

No idea what happens with Breschi, but they juts gave him an oddly timed extension. The whole thing is weird (firing and demoting his assistants, waiting so long into the offseason to extend him, only giving him three years when most places I believe give out five year deals), but I don't see them moving on this off season. I think the AD would look pretty silly.

it wasn't an extension, it was a new contract. shorter than typical for them (5), yes. either the AD or breschi decided they needed new blood at the assistant spots, given that by all indications he's on the clock.

 

[wgdsr]

A snippet from my DMs with Terry. This is me speaking.
View attachment 240406

all fun and games, and thanks for the updates. barring a career day from unc backups, this one will get sorted in 2 saturdays.

 

[Powellfan]

Stevens:

NCAA Bracketology: No Shockers

Nothing about the seeding should come as a shock, at least as things stand right now.

www.usalacrosse.com

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Cornell

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Towson, Md.

(3) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Virginia vs. Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. Yale
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Towson

Last three included: Penn State, Yale, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: Utah
Moving out: Air Force
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

---

3rd through 7th are straight RPI. I have to admit: I'm a bit surprised he also has Syracuse below Denver. I expected those two to be flipped, but otherwise this is basically what I expected from him.

Interesting. Stevens really does not like Syracuse, so not that surprising. I guess the difference between the 4th and 5th seed in this scenario doesn't matter that much, Utah would be going to Denver regardless. Still a bit frustrating, SU would have a win over Hopkins, Stevens seems to be using Denver as a buffer so that SU couldn't argue H2H. Tell me SoS has to count for something here.

Not sure why I am getting this worked up with many games to go. A win against Duke would really go a long way it seems. That said, I think SU would maybe get a boost just by playing Duke, whereas Denver probably isn't going to climb that high with their biggest remaining game a re-match with Georgetown? Again, very confused about how much a loss vs a win counts in the RPI game - though people have been very patient explaining it to me!

 

[tbonezone]

A snippet from my DMs with Terry. This is me speaking.
View attachment 240406

well examine the losses. SU has 3 losses in OT (terps #4 ,army #5, big red #12) and a 2 goal loss to #1 ND . DUKE lost to #17 Penn by 2 goals , #5 CUSE by 6 and #1 irish by 3.
SYRACUSE by far has the better losses. (i know it hurts to brag about losses but it's true )

 

[nyclax]

i would much rather be the 4 or 5 seed if it means a matchup with denver in the quarters instead of hop or uva. the number doesnt matter much. the matchups do. i would be happy with this bracket as a cuse fan...

 

[FloridaCuse]

Interesting. Stevens really does not like Syracuse, so not that surprising. I guess the difference between the 4th and 5th seed in this scenario doesn't matter that much, Utah would be going to Denver regardless. Still a bit frustrating, SU would have a win over Hopkins, Stevens seems to be using Denver as a buffer so that SU couldn't argue H2H. Tell me SoS has to count for something here.

Not sure why I am getting this worked up with many games to go. A win against Duke would really go a long way it seems. That said, I think SU would maybe get a boost just by playing Duke, whereas Denver probably isn't going to climb that high with their biggest remaining game a re-match with Georgetown? Again, very confused about how much a loss vs a win counts in the RPI game - though people have been very patient explaining it to me!

Good analysis. Thanks. I agree. Except it is too early to get worked up over any projected seedings. My view is as long as we get a home game (and aren't paired against Bryant) it really doesn't matter a lot. All games will be hard and we'll have to play our best to beat the best. I agree re Patrick Stevens. Unusual for him to downgrade SU, especially given that he wrote for the P-S for a year, but he's been doing it all season. (Maybe he doesn't like Gary.) Who knows what the RPI is going to be a week from Sunday. Denver will be hurt by playing Marquette (RPI #53) and its presumably 2 Big East Tournament games, whereas we probably aren't hurt much even if we lose our next game to a high RPI ACC team. So we likely could end up ahead of Denver in the RPI. GO ORANGE! SIX wins to go!

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Interesting. Stevens really does not like Syracuse, so not that surprising. I guess the difference between the 4th and 5th seed in this scenario doesn't matter that much, Utah would be going to Denver regardless. Still a bit frustrating, SU would have a win over Hopkins, Stevens seems to be using Denver as a buffer so that SU couldn't argue H2H. Tell me SoS has to count for something here.

Not sure why I am getting this worked up with many games to go. A win against Duke would really go a long way it seems. That said, I think SU would maybe get a boost just by playing Duke, whereas Denver probably isn't going to climb that high with their biggest remaining game a re-match with Georgetown? Again, very confused about how much a loss vs a win counts in the RPI game - though people have been very patient explaining it to me!

Oddly enough, Stevens used to work for the Post-Standard years ago, and he was the LAX beat writer.

Somebody should tell him that Desko is gone.

 

[fieldystick]

well examine the losses. SU has 3 losses in OT (terps #4 ,army #5, big red #12) and a 2 goal loss to #1 ND . DUKE lost to #17 Penn by 2 goals , #5 CUSE by 6 and #1 irish by 3.
SYRACUSE by far has the better losses. (i know it hurts to brag about losses but it's true )

Margin doesn’t matter.

Syracuse and Duke have comparable losses per criteria.

 

[tbonezone]

it's one pipe from victory versus 6 goals . it should matter ! if you recall they waived off a potential game winner on a questionable crease call (he was pushed) as well. we've hung to the finish (and extra time) with everybody.

 

[fieldystick]

it's one pipe from victory versus 6 goals . it should matter ! if you recall they waived off a potential game winner on a questionable crease call (he was pushed) as well. we've hung to the finish (and extra time) with everybody.

And this is why you were last team in in 2021 instead of the ~6 seed you should have been. The one season that used this horsecrap methodology. Want to go back?

 

[JeremyCuse]

Stevens:

NCAA Bracketology: No Shockers

Nothing about the seeding should come as a shock, at least as things stand right now.

www.usalacrosse.com

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Cornell

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Towson, Md.

(3) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Virginia vs. Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. Yale
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Towson

Last three included: Penn State, Yale, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: Utah
Moving out: Air Force
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)

---

3rd through 7th are straight RPI. I have to admit: I'm a bit surprised he also has Syracuse below Denver. I expected those two to be flipped, but otherwise this is basically what I expected from him.

5??? The hell, he realized SU beat Hopkins right and has 3 top 5 wins way more then Denvers 1?