2025 NCAA Tournament Selection Watch (Bubble + Other)

[jncuse]

I have always done these later in the season, even when Syracuse is out. But I'm pretty sure the second last day of the regular season is the latest I started tracking it. Probably just an indication of my NCAA interest -- that being said it always pick up to some degree come March

Main reason I typically post these is to get some structure for myself or others for what to track / what games to watch the upcoming few days (in particular around the bubble).

Let's start with the matrix - using this as my "consensus" guide. I may make my opinion on a few of these, but I'm not seeding teams myself - not worth my time.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

Current Teams per Conference
SEC - 13 (+1 first 4 out)
B10 - 10 (+1 first 4 out)
B12 - 8
Big East - 5
MWC - 3 (+1 first 4 out)
ACC - 3 (+1 first 4 out)
WCC - 2
One Bids - 24

The split is largely as I expected after tracking OOC performance earlier this year. The SEC did historically good in OOC - way better than even the BE ever did ... ACC did really bad. SEC beat ACC something like 34-4 (I'll verify that later). Big 10 was the second best. Big 12 wasn't much better than BE, but they boosted their NET's on margin.

3 for the ACC was probably the worst case scenario. At end of December I would have expected 4, maybe 5. But what has happened is lack of quality win opportunities due to ACC's OOC, and its easier to get "bad" losses. It will be interesting to see how they treat UNC.

 

[jncuse]

Bubble Busters (Teams that get into the tournament only by winning their conference, and it removes a bubble team)

Last year there was 5 bubble busters -- typically there is 1 maybe 2. It was a crazy tournament week -- and it happened both at the mid-major level (common) and major level (very uncommon) I believe the teams were Oregon, New Mexico, Drake, NC St, UAB

Teams to track the following few weeks

Memphis (AAC) - They are getting in regardless - currently a projected 7 seed. They are 16-2. But North Texas and UAB could still a bid from somebody

VCU (A-10) - Currently projected as a 10 seed, they have good chances of getting in without winning the A-10. The A-10 is a common bubble buster as we have seen ourselves in 2017.

Drake (MVC) UCSan Diego) These are borderline at large teams. I'm not sure either gets an at-large if they lose, especially based on committee precedence, but if Syracuse was a bubble team you just want Drake to lock it up.

Drake is 2-0 in Q1, 3-0 in Q2 ...but a weakish 10-3 in Q3 games. The wins are borderline Q1 (Neutral Vanderbilt, and at Kansas St). Personally I would put them in - I always give these teams the benefit of the doubt.

To me 26-3, and 5-0 in Q1+Q2, no matter the teams means you should get in somewhere.

 

[jncuse]

UC San Diego is another interesting one.
25-4, NET 36
2-1 in Q1 (with road wins at Utah St and San Diego St who are both just in the NCAA tournament)
1 bad loss.
To me they strongly deserve consideration as well.

So I guess one of the storylines this year will be what to make of Drake and UC San Diego if they don't win their conference tournaments.

 

[jncuse]

Games of Note this weekend

Sat 3:45 - 5th last in Ohio St (99 of 103) at Indiana (Q1)
Sat 3:45 - 3rd last in Indiana (98 of 103) vs Ohio St (Q2)
Sat 4:00 - Last in Xavier (42 of 103) vs Providence (Q3)
Sat 6:30 - 3rd Out UNC (18 of 103) vs Duke (Q1)
Sat 8:00 - 2nd last in Oklahoma (84 of 103) at Texas (Q1)
Sat 8:00 - 2nd Out Texas (22 of 103) vs Oklahoma (Q2)
Sat 10:30 - 4th last in San Diego St (98 of 103) vs Nevada (Q3)
Sun 12:30 - 4th Out Nebraska (15 of 103) vs Iowa (Q2)
Inactive - First Out Boise St

 

[jncuse]

I'm not sure if I have ever seen as drastic a change in resume under NET and RPI, as the following two BIG teams. Right in the discussion under NET, clearly out under RPI. Obviously RPI quadrant records are totally irrelevant to the discussion, but you get the side by side from Warren Nolan.
As to the why - I'll try to explain later. Have a theory based on my OOC Tracking and its not gaming but more NET itself -- certainly seems the BIG got some NET benefit this year. And I'm certainly not pushing for RPI either.

Ohio St - 5th last team in

Nebraska - 4th team out.

 

[kirbivore]

With Syracuse out the teams I'll be rooting for are St. John's and anyone vs. Duke and storz. I know most you would spit on Lunardi's grave but his bracket today has St. John's as the #3 seed in Houston's region. That's a dream draw.

 

[jncuse]

Games of Note this weekend

Sat 3:45 - 5th last in Ohio St (99 of 103) at Indiana (Q1)
Sat 3:45 - 3rd last in Indiana (98 of 103) vs Ohio St (Q2)
Sat 4:00 - Last in Xavier (42 of 103) vs Providence (Q3)
Sat 6:30 - 3rd Out UNC (18 of 103) vs Duke (Q1)
Sat 8:00 - 2nd last in Oklahoma (84 of 103) at Texas (Q1)
Sat 8:00 - 2nd Out Texas (22 of 103) vs Oklahoma (Q2)
Sat 10:30 - 4th last in San Diego St (98 of 103) vs Nevada (Q3)
Sun 12:30 - 4th Out Nebraska (15 of 103) vs Iowa (Q2)
Inactive - First Out Boise St

Indiana beat Ohio St in a big game for both.
Texas lost at home to Oklahoma. Big loss for them.

But Texas has the prototypical SEC resume... 6-12 in conference, but 5 out of those games count as Q1, 14 of their SEC games were Q1, all 18 were Q1 or Q2. Nothing bad in terms of Q3, but then again they only had 2 such games.

 

[jncuse]

With Syracuse out the teams I'll be rooting for are St. John's and anyone vs. Duke and storz. I know most you would spit on Lunardi's grave but his bracket today has St. John's as the #3 seed in Houston's region. That's a dream draw.

Matrix has them as team #8... so they are on the fringe of #2 or #2.

If they do end up as a #2 seed, they are almost guaranteed to be with an SEC team as there #1... that is because they will keep the 4 SEC teams on the top 2 seed lines in different regions.

 

[jncuse]

Drake wins the MVC, so one potential bubble buster is averted.
That being said, when on the bubble, the MVC regular season champ typically gets left out -- like Indiana St last year.

IMO, Drake had a much stronger resume than Indiana St but the matrix didn't see it that way.

So the next one to watch for in this "group" is UC San Diego.

 

[jncuse]

Nebraska is out -- totally imploded down the stretch with 5 losses in a row to fall from 17-9 to 17-14. Worst yet 3 of those losses were against non-tourney teams, and two of those 3 games were at home.

They fall to 7-13, and won't even qualify for the BIG tournament.

They were probably a team around an 8 seed before this stretch (give or take a seed), and now are probably going to be a 3 seed in the NIT or something.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Drake wins the MVC, so one potential bubble buster is averted.
That being said, when on the bubble, the MVC regular season champ typically gets left out -- like Indiana St last year.

IMO, Drake had a much stronger resume than Indiana St but the matrix didn't see it that way.

So the next one to watch for in this "group" is UC San Diego.

Thanks for doing this every year. Have always looked forward to it. Fully understand why this is version 1.0.

Drake is an interesting program. 4th Bid in 5 seasons. Very jealous. And most of their squad were D2 kids last year. Great things going on there.

 

[kirbivore]

Drake wins the MVC, so one potential bubble buster is averted.
That being said, when on the bubble, the MVC regular season champ typically gets left out -- like Indiana St last year.

IMO, Drake had a much stronger resume than Indiana St but the matrix didn't see it that way.

So the next one to watch for in this "group" is UC San Diego.

Yup. Like I said in another thread don't leave it in the hands of a committee that'd rather put in a 12th place SEC team.

 

[jncuse]

Yup. Like I said in another thread don't leave it in the hands of a committee that'd rather put in a 12th place SEC team.

I feel the 10th BIG team is a bigger issue this year than the 12th SEC team.

But I agree they will always go with Q1 wins which is inherently biased for or against some.