2025 NCAA Tournament Selection Watch (Bubble + Other)

[jncuse]

And of there 8 Q2 wins, zero are against tourney teams and 3 are against teams with NETs > 100 (NCSU, SU, ND).

SDSU has proven they can beat Houston & Creighton, potential P5 conference tourney champs.

UNC has proven they can beat UCLA.

It's a fair point for San Diego St. They have the quality OOC wins that people often complain about when MWC teams are on the bubble. The Houston win is far better than anything UNC had, and UNC had 7 games at that level to try to get 1 win. That being said Creighton is not stronger than UCLA. Those wins are a wash no matter what Creighton is doing this weekend (#6-#8 seed type teams, UCLA might get seeded higher). The difference between the two in terms of quality really comes down to one big win - Houston.

To be clear I haven't decided that UNC should be in over any of those teams including SD St. Just pointing out that 1-12 as a stand-alone is deceptive as compared to Indiana's 4-13 for example, which had more home win opportunities against more easier opponents. UNC should have been able to win a few more of the 13 no doubt but that is why they are here.

Q2 games will often include SUB 100-135 on the road - same for everybody. Bubble teams tend not to have a clean slate in such matchups. Closer to 60-70%. So 8-0 is still a positive. But of course its less important than Q1 wins.

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[PhatOrange]

This Johnnie's Creighton game is awesome.

 

[sufan59]

This Johnnie's Creighton game is awesome.

It’s like old Big East vs new Big East.

 

[cuseattle]

This Johnnie's Creighton game is awesome.

I like both teams, but St John's looks like those old Louisville Pitino teams - another gear down the stretch.

 

[sufan59]

This is just an epic moment for St John’s. New York.

 

[Toga]

What a relief not being on the bubble.

 

[phreddie]

What a relief not being on the bubble.

Well, to be fair, we haven't been on the bubble for 3 years or so.

 

[PoppyHart]

It's a fair point for San Diego St. They have the quality OOC wins that people often complain about when MWC teams are on the bubble. The Houston win is far better than anything UNC had, and UNC had 7 games at that level to try to get 1 win. That being said Creighton is not stronger than UCLA. Those wins are a wash no matter what Creighton is doing this weekend (#6-#8 seed type teams, UCLA might get seeded higher). The difference between the two in terms of quality really comes down to one big win - Houston.

To be clear I haven't decided that UNC should be in over any of those teams including SD St. Just pointing out that 1-12 as a stand-alone is deceptive as compared to Indiana's 4-13 for example, which had more home win opportunities against more easier opponents. UNC should have been able to win a few more of the 13 no doubt but that is why they are here.

Q2 games will often include SUB 100-135 on the road - same for everybody. Bubble teams tend not to have a clean slate in such matchups. Closer to 60-70%. So 8-0 is still a positive. But of course its less important than Q1 wins.

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Fine re: UCLA and Creighton.

Either way, congrats to UNC for a season of proven failures. Not counting garbage teams that may be 15-16 seeds, there’s one win over a tourney team.

SDSU has (likely) 7 over top-50 Net tourney Houston, Creighton, UNM, CSU, UCSD, BSU x2.

Seems pretty easy to me.

 

[BuffOrange]

I haven't missed Vitale's unc glazing. Congrats on not getting blown out by Duke all 3 times without their best player! Definitely trumps any of these fancy metrics.

 

[jncuse]

Fine re: UCLA and Creighton.

Either way, congrats to UNC for a season of proven failures. Not counting garbage teams that may be 15-16 seeds, there’s one win over a tourney team.

SDSU has (likely) 7 over top-50 Net tourney Houston, Creighton, UNM, CSU, UCSD, BSU x2.

Seems pretty easy to me.

Boise St is not getting in the tournament (or highly unlikely as an at-large).

So its 5 vs 1 or 7 vs 3... if you are going to include Boise St and Colorado St as top level wins, you need to add SMU (top 50) for sure, and arguably Dayton on a neutral court as well.

Its still clearly San Diego St ahead in the quality win regard (and a clear blind spot for UNC) so your point overall holds, but your point is a bit deceptive in showing the magnitude of the difference.

Anyway, as an FYI, I have San Diego St over UNC right now. I'm looking more closely at UNC, Xavier, and Indiana for the final spot, with San Diego St and Texas getting in,

I'll make my final post on UNC later.

 

[jncuse]

I overlooked the Memphis game from early today. They barely survived over a marginal Tulane team 78-77.

They are playing UAB tomorrow and will be around a 6 point favourite. If they lose they should get in, but with a KP around 50, they might be looking at a spot in Dayton.

VCU also won their game 62-55.

 

[jncuse]

Colorado St beat Boise St this afternoon.
Boise St still has a small hope of being selected as an at-large but its unlikely in my view at this point. Just the numbers game, and they probably are not helped by having 4 MWC teams already in that 10-12 range.

 

[jncuse]

VCU won earlier today 62-55 over Lasalle.

They will be around 7 point favourites tomorrow against George Mason. I am sure the committee wants VCU to win this one, just to avoid having to discuss them against the P5 teams on the bubble. They are uncertain as an at-large to me. I'll discuss them if they lose, but let's see what happens before wasting any of my time which ido anyway.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I overlooked the Memphis game from early today. They barely survived over a marginal Tulane team 78-77.

They are playing UAB tomorrow and will be around a 6 point favourite. If they lose they should get in, but with a KP around 50, they might be looking at a spot in Dayton.

VCU also won their game 62-55.

Aren’t they ranked….

 

[jncuse]

Here was the consensus per the matrix entering today

(out of 89)
San Diego St 80
Boise St 68 (or as low as 20)
Indiana 66
----------------
Texas 41
Xavier 34
UNC 21

** The Boise St number is a little unreliable as a number of those were based on Boise St being the auto-bid from the MWC. 20 people entering today had Colorado St and Boise St in.

I have settled on San Diego St being in. They have the huge win that Xavier and UNC don't have. Indiana has a huge win but was 4-13 in Q1. San Diego is ahead of those 3, and only 3 can miss.

I'm not as big on Indiana as the consensus.

 

[jncuse]

Personally, if I'm trying to guess what the committee will do, it comes down to following
- San Diego St is in.

5 teams- 2 spots
Texas
Indiana
UNC
Xavier
Boise St

I'm leaving Boise St there, but I don't think they will get it. Historically MWC falls short of consensus.
So it might be a 4 for 2 analysis right now.

 

[jncuse]

Aren’t they ranked….

They will get in. But based on what Ar-Inj heard from Gavitt today, their is speculation that committee is using quality of records to determine the who, but is using predictive metrics more for then seeding the teams (KP is #52).

So for getting in they are OK if they lose.
But for seeding they might get dinged if we interpreted Gavitt correctly.

 

[cuseattle]

I'm leaving Boise St there, but I don't think they will get it. Historically MWC falls short of consensus.
So it might be a 4 for 2 analysis right now.

It's like you're playing a game of chess against yourself.

 

[PoppyHart]

Personally, if I'm trying to guess what the committee will do, it comes down to following
- San Diego St is in.

5 teams- 2 spots
Texas
Indiana
UNC
Xavier
Boise St

I'm leaving Boise St there, but I don't think they will get it. Historically MWC falls short of consensus.
So it might be a 4 for 2 analysis right now.

If the NCAA is making a “statement” about the SEC’s dominance, it makes sense to give Texas the ultimate tiebreaker if it comes down to them vs another P5 team.

 

[jncuse]

If the NCAA is making a “statement” about the SEC’s dominance, it makes sense to give Texas the ultimate tiebreaker if it comes down to them vs another P5 team.

Strongly leaning towards Texas at this point, and its not just because of the SEC factor. Those other 3 contenders lack the quality wins.. well Indiana some but 4-13 vs 7-10.

Just at a high level quad look, with no scrubbing,

Team/ Q1/ Q1+Q2/ Bad Losses
Texas 7-10/ 10-15 /0
Indiana 4-13/ 9-13/0
Xavier 1-9 / 10-11 / 0
UNC 1-12 / 9-12 / 1 bad loss

Q2 Texas is really bad compared to others 3-5, 5-0, 8-2, 8-0. That is their big wart on their resume.
So then we need to add Q1+Q2 to see if big difference in my mind.

If you add Q1+Q2, Texas, Indiana and UNC all have similar winning % (40%, 41%, 43%), but to break that tie you have to go to the one who did best in the highest quality.

Xavier is the only with a clear big lead in Q1+Q2 (48% vs 40%), but against its just 1 Q1 win... or at best 3 if you want to slide in home wins against UConn and Creighton based on scrubbing the sides of the quads.

 

[jncuse]

UC San Diego wins the Big West. They will likely be a very tough #12 seed.

Personally if they had loss and it was my choice I would give them a bid over middling P5 schools.
But the committee would never have made that choice.