ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[kcsu]

There won't be any additions, ESP will not agree to them nor will most, if not all, ACC schools. Let posters have their fun. However, the GOR is too expensive to buyout and there is no incentive for ESPN to let any of the ACC schools go. This has been discussed on this site and at present it will be in excess of a billion dollars to break the GOR, assuming ESPN agrees to allow it.

Even in 2031, there will be too many years left for schools to buy out the GOR. And yet, ESPN will still have no interest in allowing the ACC to collapse. It is more likely that ESPN will be thinking of merging the SEC and ACC than to breaking up the ACC and letting schools go to the B1G and giving up the northeast completely, the markets are too valuable to have no ESPN footprint. As it is the B1G and Big East belong to Fox covering the two profitable sports. It is bad business to simply give a competitor profit generating properties.

Further, no talking heads have done basic math, though ESPN, Fox, and the conferences have. The SEC will have several of big name schools becoming middle of the pack and many middle of the pack fall to losing records, even when they have a 4-game OOC schedule. Saban is not a fool, he knows this, as do the SEC voters, which explains his adamant argument for 4 OOC games in lieu of three. The one extra OOC game provides a little breathing room to prop up a couple more teams. Conference play is a zero sum game, and inflation of records for the middle and bottom must come from outside the conference.

Before arguing with me, do the math and present it here. There is no mathematical possibility that Bama, LSU, UGA, UT, TAMU, OU, UF, Auburn, and Tennessee in which they are all top 25. In fact, at least one will become a loser each year, probably more than one. Nor will all of the former middle of the pack be happy being perpetual losers. No one will care that Ole Miss, MState, USC, Arkansas, Mizzou (east, not Rutgers - inside joke, a Rutgers fan once claimed Rutgers was USC on Saturdays) is in the SEC when they can't win 6 games annually. Only UK and Vandy will remain unscathed because they historically are the SEC bottom feeders of the SEC.

The same is true in the B1G, just different names. Both conferences will either have to split for the biggest names to have annual success that they are accustomed to, or more likely, both expand to include more middle of the pack and a couple bottom feeders to prop up the biggest names.

Again, before you whine and complain in an attempt to convince us that the SEC is all that and a bag of chips, do the math, show your work and prove absolutely that your response will work. As it stands, it won't. By 2031, everyone will understand this point.

Excellent post.

 

[BigNastyJon]

Based upon a couple of decades of experience, I will say that this board is welcoming to fans of other teams--if those visitors are respectful. Knowledgeable is good, too.

I already spend way too much time on SF, can’t imagine perusing other message boards (besides my annual banning from tiger net while chitfaced).

 

[TexanMark]

I already spend way too much time on SF, can’t imagine perusing other message boards (besides my annual banning from tiger net while chitfaced).

TigerNet is a special place. A small taste of wisdom and sanity mixed with Arrogance, Stupidity and Delusion with good ole Yankee Hate all mixed in together

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I know it won't happen but it would be great if we had 3 "conferences" of 30 teams each that had 3 divisions of 10. Then break away into a new FB sub division (90 schools).

So essentially the B16 would be 3 conferences under one umbrella who had an academic alliance and pooled TV monies.

B16 West
Nebraska, USC, UCLA
Plus Washington, Oregon, Cal or Stanford, Utah, Arizona or Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas
Which would be the top assets from the PAC 10 and Big 8.

B16 Central
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State
Which is the original Big 10.

B16 East
Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland
Plus Notre Dame, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, UVA, SU, and one of Duke/BC.
Which is the the old ACC and old Big East.

You play round robin in FB and home/away in BBall. So it is really 3 separate conferences.

The SEC and B12 do the same.

For the playoffs there are 9 "divisions" and those all get an auto bid. Then take another 14 at larges (need to play in). So 23/90 schools make the playoffs.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[WoadBlue]

I really don't like Mac Brown, and he's certainly lost his fastball, but he was a really good coach in his prime. He led UNC to prominence once upon a time, he went 10-4 against my Aggies, he beat OU 7 times, and he won a National Title. He had 4 other top 5 finishes at UT. He's been ranked 5 times as the UNC coach, including 2 top 10s. He went 9-5 last year, which is a whole lot better than Jimbo did at A&M.

Ugh, I feel dirty now. Thanks a lot.

Mack Brown led UNC back to prominence after nearly killing the program.

Dick Crum was fired after a 5-6 team, which came after a 7 win bowl team. Crum's last team lost 3 games to Top 10 teams. So Mack inherited more than a bit of talent and toughness. But Mack's first UNC team was 1-10, worst in school history. His second was also 1-10. So Mack the Golden Tongued began preaching that Crum left a team with no talent and no heart. I have never trusted him since.

 

[Cusefan69]

Is anyone familiar with how the ESPN/ACC contract "look ins" work and are they set to a specific timeline triggers within the contract?

 

[FrancoPizza]

This thread… just keeps going…

 

[sutomcat]

Is anyone familiar with how the ESPN/ACC contract "look ins" work and are they set to a specific timeline triggers within the contract?

There was apparently a look in with the previous contract that helped get the ACC the final commitment to create the ACCN.

Quotes Swofford saying there was a 5 year and a 10 year (and I would bet a 15 year) look in.

The 5 year happened in 2021. Might have resulted in some modest increase in pay. It makes sense the next is in 2026 and the last in 2031.

I don't think ESPN is going to give the ACC anything great as a result of these. Their revenues are dropping rapidly and they have the league locked in until 2036. Why throw money away for no reason?

Rx for the Next TV Contract Look-In

This blog is about ACC Football - past glory, what went wrong, and how to fix it and get back to the glory days again.

accfootballrx.blogspot.com

 

[FasterCuse]

This thread… just keeps going…

I figure we'll get at least another 10-12 years out of it. Maybe the longest thread in history by the time it's done.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Cusefan69]

There was apparently a look in with the previous contract that helped get the ACC the final commitment to create the ACCN.

Quotes Swofford saying there was a 5 year and a 10 year (and I would bet a 15 year) look in.

The 5 year happened in 2021. Might have resulted in some modest increase in pay. It makes sense the next is in 2026 and the last in 2031.

I don't think ESPN is going to give the ACC anything great as a result of these. Their revenues are dropping rapidly and they have the league locked in until 2036. Why throw money away for no reason?

Rx for the Next TV Contract Look-In

This blog is about ACC Football - past glory, what went wrong, and how to fix it and get back to the glory days again.

accfootballrx.blogspot.com

Thanks for the info Tom. I was just curious as there was an earlier post stating in essence that ESPN was just ignoring those "look ins " and was just curious if anyone understood the mechanics of how that worked. I appreciate the knowledge share.

 

[All4SU]

I figure we'll get at least another 10-12 years out of it. Maybe the longest thread in history by the time it's done.

This thread has and probably will continue to outlive several conferences.

 

[BlazeOrange]

Thanks for the info Tom. I was just curious as there was an earlier post stating in essence that ESPN was just ignoring those "look ins " and was just curious if anyone understood the mechanics of how that worked. I appreciate the knowledge share.

This just came up in the dueling similiar "If ACC breaks up..." thread (maybe these should be combined?).

Wasn't the 2021 look-in basically rendered useless because of Covid?

 

[sutomcat]

This just came up in the dueling similiar "If ACC breaks up..." thread (maybe these should be combined?).

Wasn't the 2021 look-in basically rendered useless because of Covid?

It can't have helped things but I think some have put too much hope that something major will happen as a result of the look ins.

Expecting the ACC will get a significant bump in TV revenue just because a look in comes due seems to me to be unrealistic. Now if the ACC won a couple of NCs in football and started getting ratings equivalent to the best B1G programs, maybe something significant will happen.

But I don't think it is likely.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I do think there is a correlation between home attendance and football value. I think that conferences can look at that and determine how big and how passionate your following is.

I took everyone's avg over the last 4 real years, meaning 2018-2022 and not including 2020.

>100k per game
3 B16
1 SEC
The B16 has the top 3 schools but the SEC has NINE of the next 10.

>90k
5 SEC

>80k
3 SEC
1 ACC
1 B16
The B16 had only one of the last 12 (#4 through #15).

>70k
1 B16
1 Indy
1 SEC

>60k
2 ACC
2 B16
1 P10
1 SEC
The P10 finally shows up, but the B12 is still absent. Every B12 school was under 59k. Surprised that VA Tech was this high.

>50k
5 B12
4 SEC
2 ACC
2 B16
1 P10
The P10 only has 2 above 50k. The B16 surprisingly has only 9 of 16 above 50k. So nearly half the conference is under. The SEC has 15 of 16 above 51,500.

>40k
5 ACC
5 P10
4 B12
4 B16
UCLA was surprisingly in this bracket. They are lucky USC allowed them to tag along. The B16 still has 3 teams under 40k, although every school is above 35k.

>30k
4 AAC
3 B16
3 MWC
2 ACC
2 P10
1 B12
No G5 school is above 36k and ECU is the only G5 school above 34k. There is no one really worth adding. People mention San Diego State to the P10, but they would be next to last in the P10. Is that worth adding? We joke about Rutgers but Maryland is really the worse add. They averaged just under 100 more people than little old Northwestern, just barely escaping last place.

<30k
1 P10
1 SEC
2 ACC
2 B12
+ rest of the G5s
The only P5 under 25k was Duke. There 2021 was a huge outlier though, not sure why. Even dropping that season they are still dead last. We joke about Wake but Duke is even worse. Houston is last in the B12, even behind Kansas. I am sure they will get a big bump, but they will still be small. I am sure that MACtion hurts attendance but even so the highest MAC team is under 20k. UMass and Northern Illinois (surprisingly since decent program) are the only under 10k teams.


AVG by conference
SEC 75,932
B16 63,431 (a 12,501 difference)
ACC 47,004
B12 45,756
P10 43,579

Compared to the B12 and P10, the ACC has more fans, better brands, better markets, and the advantage of being in the East.


For the SEC...
P3 schools above their average: Clemson
Everyone else, including Notre Dame, would lower the SEC avg.

P3 schools in top 75% of the SEC...
ACC: Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State
B12: Iowa State, BYU
P12: Washington
Outside of those ACC schools I have a hard time seeing SEC interest. Maybe BYU. The SEC might just stay at 16 or at best add 2-4 of those ACC schools to get to 18 or 20.

Based on the above I think the SEC will be:
Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, Mizzou, Arkansas
LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Bama, Auburn
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, UGA, Florida
FSU, Clemson, South Carolina, NC State, VA Tech


For the B16...
P3 schools above their average: Clemson, Notre Dame, Washington
Everyone else would lower the avg.


P3 schools in top 75% of the B16...

ACC: Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State, Miami, UNC, Louisville, Pitt
I think Miami and UNC eventually end up in the B16. Outside shot for FSU or Clemson. Not on this list, I think GA Tech (for recruiting), and UVA (to entice UNC) will go as well.

B12: Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Okie State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Baylor
I can't see any of these schools being on the B16's radar. The B16 has looked into Kansas before. Given their BBall and the KC market they seem worthy of a look, but how do you ignore the fact that they avg over 5500 less than the #16 team in the B16?

P12: Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
I think Washington gets a B16 invite. I think Utah and Colorado are long shots at best. Arizona State would be interesting. I think Oregon only gets in as a +1. Not on this list is Stanford and Cal. I do think one of them will get into the B16. Stanford has a great athletics department but it is a smaller school and averages 5k less than Cal. the again they could help entice ND. I would chose Stanford, but Cal > Stanford is possible. Can't see both going.

Based on the above i think the B16 goes to 24 by adding teams in the West and Southeast.
Washington, Stanford, USC, UCLA
Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois
Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana
Notre Dame, Rutgers, Maryland, and one of Pitt/SU/BC
UVA, UNC, GA Tech, Miami


For the ACC...

G5s for interest:
Temple is under 25k but would get a bump in the ACC. So they wouldn't be last. But still how can you justify adding an under 30k avg school?

Army and Navy are small but they do have national appeal, and both would be ahead of Wake and Duke.

Memphis is under 32k, and are a bit too West.

USF is the 3rd best G5 in attendance. But I only see them being added to replace FSU or Miami.

UConn is under 19k. How can you justify adding them? Even if they doubled their attendance they would still be 14th in the ACC.

B12s of interest:
WV is above the ACC's avg. But how do you entice them to leave the B12? And will the ACC snob schools allow them?

UCF would lower the ACC avg, but IMO they are worth adding. But again how do you get them to leave?

Cincy would be well below the ACC avg. It would be hard to justify.

P10 for the ACC:
I think Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, and Arizona would only hurt the ACC. Stanford is the only poor attendance school the ACC should consider. The other 5 schools are all worthy. But what makes them go the the ACC and leave the rest behind?


P10 for the B12:
Colorado and Arizona are often rumored as B12 candidates. If both went to the B12 it would actually widen the gap between the ACC avg and the B12 avg.


For the P10...
SMU was mentioned as an expansion candidate, but how can you justify adding a school that avg'd less than 23k?

 

[Chris02M]

It can't have helped things but I think some have put too much hope that something major will happen as a result of the look ins.

Expecting the ACC will get a significant bump in TV revenue just because a look in comes due seems to me to be unrealistic. Now if the ACC won a couple of NCs in football and started getting ratings equivalent to the best B1G programs, maybe something significant will happen.

But I don't think it is likely.

Or if ND did the unthinkable

 

[sutomcat]

Or if ND did the unthinkable

That would be nice but I think it is about as likely as Penn State leaving the B1G to join the ACC.

I would not hold my breath on either one happening.

 

[shantydaze]

There are two (maybe three) contracts that would be useful for all of the media and message board talking heads: the ACC Constitution and Bylaws (not sure if this is one or two contracts) and the contract between the ACC and ESPN. Without either of the contracts, we are all just flailing in the wind about dissolution and the look in periods.

I will say two things with a relatively high amount of confidence. One, any mention of North Carolina laws as to adding conference members or dissolution of the conference as a whole is wrong. These "laws" only apply if not modified by the ACC Constitution and Bylaws and I would be astounded if this was not the case.

The second issue has to do with the look-ins. I highly doubt the look ins did not have some benchmarks attached to them. Otherwise, the look-ins would be an illusory clause to the contract.

Both of the above are based on the assumption that the ACC's and conference members' lawyers are not idiots.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[WoadBlue]

I do think there is a correlation between home attendance and football value. I think that conferences can look at that and determine how big and how passionate your following is.

I took everyone's avg over the last 4 real years, meaning 2018-2022 and not including 2020.

>100k per game
3 B16
1 SEC
The B16 has the top 3 schools but the SEC has NINE of the next 10.

>90k
5 SEC

>80k
3 SEC
1 ACC
1 B16
The B16 had only one of the last 12 (#4 through #15).

>70k
1 B16
1 Indy
1 SEC

>60k
2 ACC
2 B16
1 P10
1 SEC
The P10 finally shows up, but the B12 is still absent. Every B12 school was under 59k. Surprised that VA Tech was this high.

>50k
5 B12
4 SEC
2 ACC
2 B16
1 P10
The P10 only has 2 above 50k. The B16 surprisingly has only 9 of 16 above 50k. So nearly half the conference is under. The SEC has 15 of 16 above 51,500.

>40k
5 ACC
5 P10
4 B12
4 B16
UCLA was surprisingly in this bracket. They are lucky USC allowed them to tag along. The B16 still has 3 teams under 40k, although every school is above 35k.

>30k
4 AAC
3 B16
3 MWC
2 ACC
2 P10
1 B12
No G5 school is above 36k and ECU is the only G5 school above 34k. There is no one really worth adding. People mention San Diego State to the P10, but they would be next to last in the P10. Is that worth adding? We joke about Rutgers but Maryland is really the worse add. They averaged just under 100 more people than little old Northwestern, just barely escaping last place.

<30k
1 P10
1 SEC
2 ACC
2 B12
+ rest of the G5s
The only P5 under 25k was Duke. There 2021 was a huge outlier though, not sure why. Even dropping that season they are still dead last. We joke about Wake but Duke is even worse. Houston is last in the B12, even behind Kansas. I am sure they will get a big bump, but they will still be small. I am sure that MACtion hurts attendance but even so the highest MAC team is under 20k. UMass and Northern Illinois (surprisingly since decent program) are the only under 10k teams.


AVG by conference
SEC 75,932
B16 63,431 (a 12,501 difference)
ACC 47,004
B12 45,756
P10 43,579

Compared to the B12 and P10, the ACC has more fans, better brands, better markets, and the advantage of being in the East.


For the SEC...
P3 schools above their average: Clemson
Everyone else, including Notre Dame, would lower the SEC avg.

P3 schools in top 75% of the SEC...
ACC: Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State
B12: Iowa State, BYU
P12: Washington
Outside of those ACC schools I have a hard time seeing SEC interest. Maybe BYU. The SEC might just stay at 16 or at best add 2-4 of those ACC schools to get to 18 or 20.

Based on the above I think the SEC will be:
Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, Mizzou, Arkansas
LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Bama, Auburn
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, UGA, Florida
FSU, Clemson, South Carolina, NC State, VA Tech


For the B16...
P3 schools above their average: Clemson, Notre Dame, Washington
Everyone else would lower the avg.


P3 schools in top 75% of the B16...

ACC: Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State, Miami, UNC, Louisville, Pitt
I think Miami and UNC eventually end up in the B16. Outside shot for FSU or Clemson. Not on this list, I think GA Tech (for recruiting), and UVA (to entice UNC) will go as well.

B12: Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Okie State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Baylor
I can't see any of these schools being on the B16's radar. The B16 has looked into Kansas before. Given their BBall and the KC market they seem worthy of a look, but how do you ignore the fact that they avg over 5500 less than the #16 team in the B16?

P12: Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
I think Washington gets a B16 invite. I think Utah and Colorado are long shots at best. Arizona State would be interesting. I think Oregon only gets in as a +1. Not on this list is Stanford and Cal. I do think one of them will get into the B16. Stanford has a great athletics department but it is a smaller school and averages 5k less than Cal. the again they could help entice ND. I would chose Stanford, but Cal > Stanford is possible. Can't see both going.

Based on the above i think the B16 goes to 24 by adding teams in the West and Southeast.
Washington, Stanford, USC, UCLA
Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois
Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana
Notre Dame, Rutgers, Maryland, and one of Pitt/SU/BC
UVA, UNC, GA Tech, Miami


For the ACC...

G5s for interest:
Temple is under 25k but would get a bump in the ACC. So they wouldn't be last. But still how can you justify adding an under 30k avg school?

Army and Navy are small but they do have national appeal, and both would be ahead of Wake and Duke.

Memphis is under 32k, and are a bit too West.

USF is the 3rd best G5 in attendance. But I only see them being added to replace FSU or Miami.

UConn is under 19k. How can you justify adding them? Even if they doubled their attendance they would still be 14th in the ACC.

B12s of interest:
WV is above the ACC's avg. But how do you entice them to leave the B12? And will the ACC snob schools allow them?

UCF would lower the ACC avg, but IMO they are worth adding. But again how do you get them to leave?

Cincy would be well below the ACC avg. It would be hard to justify.

P10 for the ACC:
I think Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, and Arizona would only hurt the ACC. Stanford is the only poor attendance school the ACC should consider. The other 5 schools are all worthy. But what makes them go the the ACC and leave the rest behind?


P10 for the B12:
Colorado and Arizona are often rumored as B12 candidates. If both went to the B12 it would actually widen the gap between the ACC avg and the B12 avg.


For the P10...
SMU was mentioned as an expansion candidate, but how can you justify adding a school that avg'd less than 23k?

There is a very strong correlation between a league's average attendance and that league's consistent TV viewing audience. And the networks pay for those TV viewers. That means that you are gambling foolishly when you add schools with poor attendance. That is the reason I was screaming HELL NO! about the ACC adding BC. WE already had Wake and Dook; adding BC was like daring the football goods to teach us a lesson.

Obviously WVU would be less than thrilled about the ACC if FSU and/or Clemson and/or UNC and/or VT were leaving. But surely WVU would make its fans much happier by plating ACC schools. WVU fans live in nice numbers in PA, OH, MD, VA, NC, and even GA and FL. They would help sell out tickets all over the ACC (except Boston).

What I doubt is that ESPN would pay much beyond what we now get per team to just add WVU to have 15 football members and 16 for hoops. I believe ESPN would more likely suggest that WVU could be a replacement for Wake or BC, and that trade might be worth something.

USF is more intriguing now that it (A) has AAU status and (B) is building an on-campus football stadium. All those USF alums could see ACC membership as ideal for the university's rise in academic stature and respond with a huge increase in fan support for the Bulls.

I am not ready to accept that the BT and SEC get to destroy CFB by creating a duopoly in terms of money. I think the ACC can survive at full strength, but it may take becoming cut throat. That's what happens when you allow Gordon Gekkos to take over college sports.

 

[Toga]

I do think there is a correlation between home attendance and football value. I think that conferences can look at that and determine how big and how passionate your following is.

I took everyone's avg over the last 4 real years, meaning 2018-2022 and not including 2020.

>100k per game
3 B16
1 SEC
The B16 has the top 3 schools but the SEC has NINE of the next 10.

>90k
5 SEC

>80k
3 SEC
1 ACC
1 B16
The B16 had only one of the last 12 (#4 through #15).

>70k
1 B16
1 Indy
1 SEC

>60k
2 ACC
2 B16
1 P10
1 SEC
The P10 finally shows up, but the B12 is still absent. Every B12 school was under 59k. Surprised that VA Tech was this high.

>50k
5 B12
4 SEC
2 ACC
2 B16
1 P10
The P10 only has 2 above 50k. The B16 surprisingly has only 9 of 16 above 50k. So nearly half the conference is under. The SEC has 15 of 16 above 51,500.

>40k
5 ACC
5 P10
4 B12
4 B16
UCLA was surprisingly in this bracket. They are lucky USC allowed them to tag along. The B16 still has 3 teams under 40k, although every school is above 35k.

>30k
4 AAC
3 B16
3 MWC
2 ACC
2 P10
1 B12
No G5 school is above 36k and ECU is the only G5 school above 34k. There is no one really worth adding. People mention San Diego State to the P10, but they would be next to last in the P10. Is that worth adding? We joke about Rutgers but Maryland is really the worse add. They averaged just under 100 more people than little old Northwestern, just barely escaping last place.

<30k
1 P10
1 SEC
2 ACC
2 B12
+ rest of the G5s
The only P5 under 25k was Duke. There 2021 was a huge outlier though, not sure why. Even dropping that season they are still dead last. We joke about Wake but Duke is even worse. Houston is last in the B12, even behind Kansas. I am sure they will get a big bump, but they will still be small. I am sure that MACtion hurts attendance but even so the highest MAC team is under 20k. UMass and Northern Illinois (surprisingly since decent program) are the only under 10k teams.


AVG by conference
SEC 75,932
B16 63,431 (a 12,501 difference)
ACC 47,004
B12 45,756
P10 43,579

Compared to the B12 and P10, the ACC has more fans, better brands, better markets, and the advantage of being in the East.


For the SEC...
P3 schools above their average: Clemson
Everyone else, including Notre Dame, would lower the SEC avg.

P3 schools in top 75% of the SEC...
ACC: Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State
B12: Iowa State, BYU
P12: Washington
Outside of those ACC schools I have a hard time seeing SEC interest. Maybe BYU. The SEC might just stay at 16 or at best add 2-4 of those ACC schools to get to 18 or 20.

Based on the above I think the SEC will be:
Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, Mizzou, Arkansas
LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Bama, Auburn
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, UGA, Florida
FSU, Clemson, South Carolina, NC State, VA Tech


For the B16...
P3 schools above their average: Clemson, Notre Dame, Washington
Everyone else would lower the avg.


P3 schools in top 75% of the B16...

ACC: Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State, Miami, UNC, Louisville, Pitt
I think Miami and UNC eventually end up in the B16. Outside shot for FSU or Clemson. Not on this list, I think GA Tech (for recruiting), and UVA (to entice UNC) will go as well.

B12: Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Okie State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Baylor
I can't see any of these schools being on the B16's radar. The B16 has looked into Kansas before. Given their BBall and the KC market they seem worthy of a look, but how do you ignore the fact that they avg over 5500 less than the #16 team in the B16?

P12: Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
I think Washington gets a B16 invite. I think Utah and Colorado are long shots at best. Arizona State would be interesting. I think Oregon only gets in as a +1. Not on this list is Stanford and Cal. I do think one of them will get into the B16. Stanford has a great athletics department but it is a smaller school and averages 5k less than Cal. the again they could help entice ND. I would chose Stanford, but Cal > Stanford is possible. Can't see both going.

Based on the above i think the B16 goes to 24 by adding teams in the West and Southeast.
Washington, Stanford, USC, UCLA
Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois
Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana
Notre Dame, Rutgers, Maryland, and one of Pitt/SU/BC
UVA, UNC, GA Tech, Miami


For the ACC...

G5s for interest:
Temple is under 25k but would get a bump in the ACC. So they wouldn't be last. But still how can you justify adding an under 30k avg school?

Army and Navy are small but they do have national appeal, and both would be ahead of Wake and Duke.

Memphis is under 32k, and are a bit too West.

USF is the 3rd best G5 in attendance. But I only see them being added to replace FSU or Miami.

UConn is under 19k. How can you justify adding them? Even if they doubled their attendance they would still be 14th in the ACC.

B12s of interest:
WV is above the ACC's avg. But how do you entice them to leave the B12? And will the ACC snob schools allow them?

UCF would lower the ACC avg, but IMO they are worth adding. But again how do you get them to leave?

Cincy would be well below the ACC avg. It would be hard to justify.

P10 for the ACC:
I think Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, and Arizona would only hurt the ACC. Stanford is the only poor attendance school the ACC should consider. The other 5 schools are all worthy. But what makes them go the the ACC and leave the rest behind?


P10 for the B12:
Colorado and Arizona are often rumored as B12 candidates. If both went to the B12 it would actually widen the gap between the ACC avg and the B12 avg.


For the P10...
SMU was mentioned as an expansion candidate, but how can you justify adding a school that avg'd less than 23k?

Holy crap

 

[HtownOrange]

There are two (maybe three) contracts that would be useful for all of the media and message board talking heads: the ACC Constitution and Bylaws (not sure if this is one or two contracts) and the contract between the ACC and ESPN. Without either of the contracts, we are all just flailing in the wind about dissolution and the look in periods.

I will say two things with a relatively high amount of confidence. One, any mention of North Carolina laws as to adding conference members or dissolution of the conference as a whole is wrong. These "laws" only apply if not modified by the ACC Constitution and Bylaws and I would be astounded if this was not the case.

The second issue has to do with the look-ins. I highly doubt the look ins did not have some benchmarks attached to them. Otherwise, the look-ins would be an illusory clause to the contract.

Both of the above are based on the assumption that the ACC's and conference members' lawyers are not idiots.

...third, if there was an easy way out, it would have been exercised by now.

 

[kcsu]

...third, if there was an easy way out, it would have been exercised by now.

There is no out. The ACC is and will remain in 3rd place. When we renegotiate in 10 years the gap will close. ESPN isn't going to allow the league to fail. It will do enough to keep them complaining but stable.

 

[HtownOrange]

There is no out. The ACC is and will remain in 3rd place. When we renegotiate in 10 years the gap will close. ESPN isn't going to allow the league to fail. It will do enough to keep them complaining but stable.

I think the same way. After 10 years of several of the SEC and B1G power teams realizing they cannot rack up enough wins to be big dogs anymore, we may see the conferences split again.

I hope (more like wish) that the conferences would get together and make one agreement like the pros and then go to regional conferences but that is not likely to happen for a few decades.