ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[Jake]

I'm sure this has been posted at length already, but I'm wondering what you all think would be the best scenario(s) for Cuse if in a few or more years if the ACC is picked apart? Wondering what everyone thinks are the best (and realistic) scenarios for football, for basketball, and for both together.

Think the BIG12 is gathering all the best basketball schools to a degree. If the ACC implodes at some point I think we end up there and they expand their footprint east.

 

[kcsu]

Here is my take.

The ACC has been very active and researched options none of which added value at this point.

ESPN is not in position to make major moves at this point

The GOR is obviously very solid otherwise FSU would have made their move.

The current ACC payout is as good or better than anything other than a full SEC or Big share.

The government is just starting to get involved in potentially shaping college sports in a big way.

All of the recent moves happened as a result of conference media right deals being at the end of their contracts.

Long term I believe that the ACC will merge with the SEC as that the only play left for ESPN. I think ESPN will form a media partnership with a major streaming player to get it done. SU has a chance to make the cut if it can continue to improve its football program and if the basketball program rebounds.

We are most likely looking at a minimum of 5 years before the ACC is on the clock. FSU and possibly Clemson might make a play to raise the money to exit at that point. I don't think that any challenge to the GOR will be successful, and I don't think that Fox and the other media companies involved in any of these deals wants the GOR to be defeated as it completely destroys their contractual security.

Bottom line is we have time on our side. The situation is out of control and the recent implosion of the PAC and the seperation of schools in California , Washington and Oregon will lead to the government getting more involved. I think it was Bees who when all of this mess started said that eventually college sports would end up in 4 super conferences. I believe that will probably happen.

For now, sit back and hope that we continue to strengthen our sports teams and that we have success on the field. Those are the only things we can control at this point. Long term I believe we will be fine.

 

[Bayside44]

The B1G gave USC and UCLA full shares and that is how they destabilized the PAC. O and W had to take what they could get. They would use the same tactic on the ACC.

Yeah and the Arizona schools, Utah, O and W didn't. USC is white whale they caught.

The ACC has a built in safeguard right now, probably a couple since ESPN really doesn't need to pay double to move schools to the SEC.

 

[Cuse181]

Nobody with a brain will want any team from New England, It is the totally dead region for Major college sports. The ACC taking BC was, as I predicted then, a very bad move that could seriously cripple the league. WVU should have been the 12th member. That alone could not have saved us, but it would have made certain we had more football spark and fury in terms of hated rivals - WVU fans hate everybody, and they watch games religiously. New Englanders just ignore BC.

Bc was taken well before WVU was even hinted at as being a potential target for any other conference. They would’ve been a terrible fit for the old ACC

 

[baggerbob]

Got my email from Arizona State this evening that they are going to the Big 12 or the Big 18 or whatever it will become. I was a season ticket holder for women's basketball.

SEC isn’t staying at 20 if Big 10 goes to 24. At this point, there is no one for the SEC to add because of the GORS. SEC is currently boxed in. Waiting for the ACC to get closer to end of life before pouncing on the top brands.

When we hit a recession before the next contracts, the Big money contracts are going to collapse.
The SEC, and Big 10 contracts are up first
, they both could be in for a shock.

 

[qdawgg]

Seems like some have claimed it will be three conferences of twenty four teams each. I’d like to think we would be included in those 72 teams. I’m impressed at how the Big 12 after almost dying twice has rose from the dead yet again. ACC should consider adding Penn State and some Big 12 teams

I think they should add Texas too. Really big tv market.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

So if reports are basically correct O and W are getting ACC type money from the B1G (as are the new Big 12 schools). If that's the case and if that's the going rate why is everyone so worried?

It all depends on how things play out. If no one leaves the ACC in the next 5 years (very very likely) and the next B12 TV contract is crap (good chance), then the ACC can raid the B12 to provide long term stability to all of the current ACC members. Otherwise the B12 will be the #3 longterm and the leftover ACC teams will be the ones scrambling.

 

[orangenauburn]

This is going to force college football into totally restructuring everything. The travel restraints are going to be astronomical. It’s going to look like the NFL. There will be 4-6 different divisions based on regions. There will be one tv contract divided equally amongst all schools. Each tv network will bid on parts of the tv package. School presidents have to wake up and realize the current conference format is not going to work. How is OSU, Michigan, PSU, USC, UCLA, Oregon, etc. going to feel when they all beat each other up and not be eligible for college playoffs? Same thing is going to happen in the SEC. When this happens, say good bye to ND’s independence. The sooner, the better. Just get it done. John Wildhack should be already on this.

Would be amazing if someday we ended up in a division with Pitt, PSU, Maryland, Rutgers, and WVU

But alas, it is more distant than Pluto

 

[sabach]

You’re delusional. Big10 is not adding Syracuse to represent NY. They’ll add additional NY exposure whenever ND joins them as the last school of this entire realignment process. Syracuse will not get an invite to BIG, SEC or Big12.

There is the problem. For a while, I figured we would be looking at 4 conferences of 16 (Bees model) with the ACC being one of them and SU in. If we go to 3 conferences of 20 with the ACC not being one of them, we are out in part because schools we would have been ahead of (UCF for example) got secured in the Big 12 before the ACC imploded and we needed to move.

 

[qdawgg]

So if reports are basically correct O and W are getting ACC type money from the B1G (as are the new Big 12 schools). If that's the case and if that's the going rate why is everyone so worried?

And the question is, when the B10 product is diluted and kind of sucks……. even more. When all these schools are supposed to get a full share, do they bring/add that much value?

 

[Bayside44]

It all depends on how things play out. If no one leaves the ACC in the next 5 years (very very likely) and the next B12 TV contract is crap (good chance), then the ACC can raid the B12 to provide long term stability to all of the current ACC members. Otherwise the B12 will be the #3 longterm and the leftover ACC teams will be the ones scrambling.

Also, if the next Big 12 media deal underwhelms, and the ACC's is fine, that just might be that and these weeds of growth would stop.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

College football really ruined the landscape of college athletics. Luckily, I've long since graduated from SU because my appetite for watching this stuff has a decreased substantially over the years. If I want to watch professional like sports, I'll watch the pros do it, not some kids who have a fraction of the skill while pretending to be amateurs.

We never had these issues when the NCAA controlled all the TV money, and everyone got the same slice of the pie.

Conferences made geographic sense, and teams rarely moved.

The Big 10 had 10 teams.
The Pac 10 had 10 teams.
The SEC had 10 teams.
The Big 8 had 8.
The SWC had 9.
The ACC had 8.

And there were plenty of Eastern and Southern Indies to fill out bowl matchups every January.

Then somebody found a loophole where a 12 team conference could hold a lucrative CCG and sell the rights to a network.

The SEC grabbed Arkansas and South Carolina to get to 12.
The Big 8 nabbed 4 Texas schools to become the Bevo12.
The Big11 took Nebraska to get their 12.
The ACC added FSU to get to 9, and eventually got to 12.
The PAC was late to the party in reaching 12.
Even the MAC has 12.

Where does it end?
16 teams?
18 teams?
Will we see 20 team conferences? The SEC Basketball Tournament will take two weeks now.

We're headed for one massive 72 team conference, divided up into 8 divisions of 8-10 teams each. Which is almost where we started 50 years ago.

 

[Orangefizz]

Adding NY, Mass, VA, and NC would look awful good on that Big 10 map.

FIFY adding VA, NC, GA, FL would look awful good on that Big 10 map

 

[Scotch]

There is the problem. For a while, I figured we would be looking at 4 conferences of 16 with the ACC being one of them and SU in. If we go to 3 conferences of 20 with the ACC not being one of them, we are out in part because schools we would have been ahead of (UCF for example) got secured in the Big 12 before the ACC imploded and we needed to move.

I hear you but if more valuable schools are available conferences find a way to add them. There aren’t a limited number of spots, there is just a point where schools stop adding value.

 

[baggerbob]

Nobody with a brain will want any team from New England, It is the totally dead region for Major college sports. The ACC taking BC was, as I predicted then, a very bad move that could seriously cripple the league. WVU should have been the 12th member. That alone could not have saved us, but it would have made certain we had more football spark and fury in terms of hated rivals - WVU fans hate everybody, and they watch games religiously. New Englanders just ignore BC.

Actually West Virginia had better rivalries with Pitt and Syracuse.
Boston College had the Flutie years, but Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia were most of the time much better.

 

[kcsu]

Interesting side note. Greg and JW are good acquaintances. Greg has a home on Skaneateles Lake and knows JB very well. Greg is very smart, and I believe would make a great leader for a 4-league super conference.

 

[Orangefizz]

Think the BIG12 is gathering all the best basketball schools to a degree. If the ACC implodes at some point I think we end up there and they expand their footprint east.

Yes, I agree. The big 12 will look east for their next round of expansion. I’m just concerned Syracuse will be in the running for one of the last spots if they end at 20 teams because Pitt and Louisville are certainly ahead of us.

Then there is Virginia Tech in NC State if they don’t go to the SEC. They would also be ahead of us.

Duke and Georgia tech if they don’t go to the big 10. They will also be ahead of us.

It’s entirely possible, we end up back in the big east and part of a modified AAC conference for football. It all really depends on how large the Big Ten, SEC, and big 12 want to get.

If I’m being honest, the only ACC teams we are ahead of as far as super conference desirability is Boston College and Wake Forest

 

[NYCCuse826]

 

[qdawgg]

I hear you. If this turns into B1G vs. SEC I’ll just watch the NFL, and I don’t think we’re alone.

I think people get hung up on the numbers for the championship game too. “Well look how many people tune in to that even though they hate all the conference realignment”. That’s great, it’s like Black Friday for a retail store. You need that good day but it doesn’t pay the bills the rest of the year. I think there’s lots of people who could start tuning out as rivalries/game matchups they used to get excited for don’t exist. That leaves you with the die-hards.

 

[sabach]

Yes, I agree. The big 12 will look east for their next round of expansion. I’m just concerned Syracuse will be in the running for one of the last spots if they end at 20 teams because Pitt and Louisville are certainly ahead of us.

Then there is Virginia Tech in NC State if they don’t go to the SEC. They would also be ahead of us.

Duke and Georgia tech if they don’t go to the big 10. They will also be ahead of us.

It’s entirely possible, we end up back in the big east and part of a modified AAC conference for football. It all really depends on how large the Big Ten, SEC, and big 12 want to get.

This is correct. If those 3 conferences stop adding before SU gets in, it might be the ACC GOR that actually kills us. It kept the ACC intact while other schools got in the SEC, BIG 10 AND BIG 12, and then when the ACC imploded there were no longer enough open chairs in the Big 3 conferences. Schools like UCF gets in and we are on the outside.

 

[AZOrange]

He’s right this conference does kick ass

Seems like a conf of also rans

 

[SU91]

B10 would take UNC, UVA, Fla st, Clemson, GT. Maybe Cuse, BC, Duke. We blew AAU.

SEC would take UNC, UVA. Maybe Pitt.

B12 would any of the above but not Cuse, BC. Probably not Duke. They’re most likely to pick over the dead carcass after B10/SEC feed, so that means NCst, VT, Louisville

 

[qdawgg]

B10 would take UNC, UVA, Fla st, Clemson, GT. Maybe Cuse, BC, Duke. We blew AAU.

SEC would take UNC, UVA. Maybe Pitt.

B12 would any of the above but not Cuse, BC. Probably not Duke. They’re most likely to pick over the dead carcass after B10/SEC feed, so that means NCst, VT, Louisville

Clemson isn’t going to B10 over SEC, same with FSU. Those are both cultural fits for the SEC, including Vtech. Also the B10 is the biggest conference right now. They’re not going to add even more schools than the SEC would add. They might have diluted themselves already.

 

[Jake]

FSU’s next move is to convince enough teams to leave the ACC to dissolve the league.

The end of the PAC started the consolidation. The key players right now for FSU aren’t the teams guaranteed a seat at the table like UNC etc…it will be figuring out which swing votes like Syracuse are gonna get nervous and want a seat in the Big 12. FSU needs to work the Big 12 leadership.

“Hey Syracuse, you can get in the Big 12 ahead of Pitt, BC etc if you vote to dissolve the ACC…work with us…”

To me, that’s the play. Get someone to help you dissolve the ACC, especially a school that has no sentimental attachment.

 

[All4SU]

It’s simply not clear to me what the end game is here. Does the SEC even have a plan? Does the B1G? How big is big? What’s the point of a conference of 30 teams? It all just seems so arbitrary. What a colossal $#|+ show.