ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[Toga]

Here is my take.

The ACC has been very active and researched options none of which added value at this point.

ESPN is not in position to make major moves at this point

The GOR is obviously very solid otherwise FSU would have made their move.

The current ACC payout is as good or better than anything other than a full SEC or Big share.

The government is just starting to get involved in potentially shaping college sports in a big way.

All of the recent moves happened as a result of conference media right deals being at the end of their contracts.

Long term I believe that the ACC will merge with the SEC as that the only play left for ESPN. I think ESPN will form a media partnership with a major streaming player to get it done. SU has a chance to make the cut if it can continue to improve its football program and if the basketball program rebounds.

We are most likely looking at a minimum of 5 years before the ACC is on the clock. FSU and possibly Clemson might make a play to raise the money to exit at that point. I don't think that any challenge to the GOR will be successful, and I don't think that Fox and the other media companies involved in any of these deals wants the GOR to be defeated as it completely destroys their contractual security.

Bottom line is we have time on our side. The situation is out of control and the recent implosion of the PAC and the seperation of schools in California , Washington and Oregon will lead to the government getting more involved. I think it was Bees who when all of this mess started said that eventually college sports would end up in 4 super conferences. I believe that will probably happen.

For now, sit back and hope that we continue to strengthen our sports teams and that we have success on the field. Those are the only things we can control at this point. Long term I believe we will be fine.

Exactamundo

 

[CuseCactus]

Syracuse’s slow decline in virtually every measurable - academics and athletics - over the last 25 years couldn’t have been less timely.

Rutgers is beating us. Objectively. Their move to the B10 was a stroke of genius and a miracle.

Awful time. Hate that the P12 is gone also - that’s very sad.

 

[Stern]

“Hey Syracuse, you can get in the Big 12 ahead of Pitt, BC etc if you vote to dissolve the ACC…work with us…”

To me, that’s the play. Get someone to help you dissolve the ACC, especially a school that has no sentimental attachment.

That is 100% the play.

If FSU, Clemson, and others want out now to get to the SEC and some others to the Big 10, and need SU's vote to dissolve the league if they can get us a slot to the Big 12 and lock that up in some back room deal, then that is the play for SU. We side with them, instead of being the last man on the Titanic trying to be noble and loyal when nobody else is.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I don't see the point of adding schools to existing territories or 2 schools from the same territory, unless the school is a big brand. I think the B12 will be sorry for doing so in their next TV contract.

Also, the SEC will not want to absorb the ACC. They won't take both FSU and Miami. Maybe not even one. The B18 can always get into Florida anyway so you aren't stopping anything. It doesn't make sense for the SEC to take GA Tech. Out of the 4 Carolina schools, I only see one making cents. In VA, only one. Adding Louisville is not worth it. I don't see adding the three Northern schools, unless Notre Dame comes which is very very unlikely. So the SEC really would only want FSU, Clemson, UNC, and VA Tech. The other 10 make little to no cents.

I think the SEC will have more interest in going West. I think Kansas, Colorado, BYU, Arizona State, San Diego State are all potential candidates.

I could see a P2 of 24 schools each. SU has an outside chance of making that, but it is more likely that we don't get an invite. Personally I rather see SU stay in a rebuilt ACC than join a national 24 team B12. Give me FAU, Duke, Wake, James Madison, Navy/Georgetown, Villanova, Army/St Johns, SU, UConn, BC.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Again… this is all so dumb.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

So if reports are basically correct O and W are getting ACC type money from the B1G (as are the new Big 12 schools). If that's the case and if that's the going rate why is everyone so worried?

I think that is true only for 2024. After that, it sounds like they get full shares.

 

[Jake]

That is 100% the play.

If FSU, Clemson, and others want out now to get to the SEC and some others to the Big 10, and need SU's vote to dissolve the league if they can get us a slot to the Big 12 and lock that up in some back room deal, then that is the play for SU. We side with them, instead of being the last man on the Titanic trying to be noble and loyal when nobody else is.

If a carpetbagger school is the swing vote that kills the ACC, we might have another civil war.

 

[Stern]

It’s simply not clear to me what the end game is here. Does the SEC even have a plan? Does the B1G? How big is big? What’s the point of a conference of 30 teams? It all just seems so arbitrary. What a colossal $#|+ show.

The SEC 100% has a plan, but the schools they want are in the ACC, so they gotta wait this out some till those ACC schools are free. Do you think FSU is doing all of this talking without having a landing spot in their back pocket?

And having two mega conferences of 20, 24, 26 or however many schools it ends up being in the end, gives those 2 conferences the power to BREAK AWAY from the NCAA. Have their own rules, not worry about NIL in Congress BS, hold their own March Madness tournament and not share money with the MAC and every rinky-dink conference. Cut TV deals that would be only second to the NFL in all of major sports. Not have to share money and revenue with small schools which they look down upon. Or be forced to invite them into a football playoff and give them a cut.

That is the end game. And it will be here before we know it. This is just the next round of Musical Chairs and it is currently taking place, don't get caught without a chair.

 

[Dinkyspond]

Clemson isn’t going to B10 over SEC, same with FSU. Those are both cultural fits for the SEC, including Vtech. Also the B10 is the biggest conference right now. They’re not going to add even more schools than the SEC would add. They might have diluted themselves already.

I think "cultural fits" has been thrown out the door just like geographic rivalries have been jettisoned.

 

[Nick44]

Syracuse’s slow decline in virtually every measurable - academics and athletics - over the last 25 years couldn’t have been less timely.

Rutgers is beating us. Objectively. Their move to the B10 was a stroke of genius and a miracle.

Awful time. Hate that the P12 is gone also - that’s very sad.

It wasn’t a stroke of genius. At the time, BIG had last pick and ended up with Rutgers. Rutgers would’ve jumped into the sinking Titanic if it had the offer. Snooki is no genius.

Syracuse, Pitt had already been selected by ACC. BIG wasn’t going to take a couch burning institution like WVU or a school that doesn’t believe in academics like Louisville.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Nobody with a brain will want any team from New England, It is the totally dead region for Major college sports. The ACC taking BC was, as I predicted then, a very bad move that could seriously cripple the league. WVU should have been the 12th member. That alone could not have saved us, but it would have made certain we had more football spark and fury in terms of hated rivals - WVU fans hate everybody, and they watch games religiously. New Englanders just ignore BC.

BC dominated this trash league in football for 6-7 years. They won 10 games every year until Clemson got good.

UNC and Miami being perennial frauds and always losing 6 games is what crippled the league.

 

[Chris02M]

I don't see the point of adding schools to existing territories or 2 schools from the same territory, unless the school is a big brand. I think the B12 will be sorry for doing so in their next TV contract.

Also, the SEC will not want to absorb the ACC. They won't take both FSU and Miami. Maybe not even one. The B18 can always get into Florida anyway so you aren't stopping anything. It doesn't make sense for the SEC to take GA Tech. Out of the 4 Carolina schools, I only see one making cents. In VA, only one. Adding Louisville is not worth it. I don't see adding the three Northern schools, unless Notre Dame comes which is very very unlikely. So the SEC really would only want FSU, Clemson, UNC, and VA Tech. The other 10 make little to no cents.

I think the SEC will have more interest in going West. I think Kansas, Colorado, BYU, Arizona State, San Diego State are all potential candidates.

I could see a P2 of 24 schools each. SU has an outside chance of making that, but it is more likely that we don't get an invite. Personally I rather see SU stay in a rebuilt ACC than join a national 24 team B12. Give me FAU, Duke, Wake, James Madison, Navy/Georgetown, Villanova, Army/St Johns, SU, UConn, BC.

that wont pay the bills

 

[qdawgg]

It’s simply not clear to me what the end game is here. Does the SEC even have a plan? Does the B1G? How big is big? What’s the point of a conference of 30 teams? It all just seems so arbitrary. What a colossal $#|+ show.

My personal opinions on all of this. The SEC has a plan, they’ve been very strategic in all of this. They haven’t added teams like Rutgers, MD or Washington that add no real value to the league other than being punching bags for the conference.

I think the B10 has a preoccupation with the SEC. They want to grow in size and be “the” league in CFB. I said that a long time ago in the conference realignment type threads. Picking teams off in the west just solidifies that thought for me even more. They can’t beat the SEC in championship games typically but they can try to outmuscle them in sheer conference size. Everyone laughs at B10 for adding MD and Rutgers, even B10 fans. But the conference did it anyway. Diluting their product. That’s why I think their expansion is largely because of their insecurity with the SEC.

The SEC up to this point is the best conference in CFB. They don’t need to make any rash moves the way some of the B10 moves have felt like, to me anyway. BUT with the moves this week, I think they may begin to look at options. ACC and SEC are tied to ESPN. All 3 groups have a lot to lose, especially ESPN and the ACC.

As I said yesterday. When I look at the new map of where the B10 schools are across the country and visualize the B12. If I’m the SEC, it’s clear the B10’s next move is moving into SEC “territory”. Maybe not for 10 years but if I’m the SEC, I’m starting to make plans to prevent the B10 from doing that.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

I don’t even want Syracuse to get an invite to the mega leagues. I just want hoops in the Big East and them to let FB play in the also ran conference.

 

[qdawgg]

I think that is true only for 2024. After that, it sounds like they get full shares.

No, they aren’t getting full shares affer 2024.

 

[Chris02M]

I think that is true only for 2024. After that, it sounds like they get full shares.

thats not accurate, they get around 30 mil in 24 then an additional 1 mil per year until the next contract, though they can borrow against future dollars i think

 

[qdawgg]

I think "cultural fits" has been thrown out the door just like geographic rivalries have been jettisoned.

That is true but not when the money is about equal between the SEC and B10. All other deals have been a result of leaving for far more money. Clemson isn’t going to choose the SEC over the B10 for money, it’s about the same. Clemson will pick the SEC for geography and cultural fit because they can. Rutgers didn’t have that choice.

 

[Sherman20]

It would be hilarious if somehow the Big 10 makes a western flank work financially when the ACC had that option all along and just sat idle.

Me and a few others have been arguing for a west coast expansion to the ACC for months but many dismissed the idea and our concerns about the Big 12 outflanking the ACC as the third best conference. Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, Arizona, ASU and Utah made a ton of sense. Now the Big 10 outplays us and pounces on adding UW and UO (for now) and the sorry Big 12 outflanks the ACC again. The ACC leadership and school presidents are a bunch of fools and have been behind the 8-ball for over a year.

 

[Stern]

My personal opinions on all of this. The SEC has a plan, they’ve been very strategic in all of this. They haven’t added teams like Rutgers, MD or Washington that add no real value to the league other than being punching bags for the conference.

I think the B10 has a preoccupation with the SEC. They want to grow in size and be “the” league in CFB. I said that a long time ago in the conference realignment type threads. Picking teams off in the west just solidifies that thought for me even more. They can’t beat the SEC in championship games typically but they can try to outmuscle them in sheer conference size. Everyone laughs at B10 for adding MD and Rutgers, even B10 fans. But the conference did it anyway. Diluting their product. That’s why I think their expansion is largely because of their insecurity with the SEC.

The SEC up to this point is the best conference in CFB. They don’t need to make any rash moves the way some of the B10 moves have felt like, to me anyway. BUT with the moves this week, I think they may begin to look at options. ACC and SEC are tied to ESPN. All 3 groups have a lot to lose, especially ESPN and the ACC.

As I said yesterday. When I look at the new map of where the B10 schools are across the country and visualize the B12. If I’m the SEC, it’s clear the B10’s next move is moving into SEC “territory”. Maybe not for 10 years but if I’m the SEC, I’m starting to make plans to prevent the B10 from doing that.

The Big 10's issue is they have this primetime deal with NBC now for a long time, and none of the traditional BIG 10 schools want to play night games. Also, they have to pay FOX back $40 mill because they promised the BIG 10 Championship game in 2026 to NBC but FOX had that game locked up and Fox was like, you gave away our game, reimburse us and pay us that money. So, the Big 10 lost money there they weren't prepared for. So the NBC/FOX/CBS relationship wasn't well thought out and it has been a bumpy road.

So adding the teams from the West Coast solves the Big 10's NBC problem moving forward with night games and makes one of their media partners very happy. They aren't just randomly adding teams; there is a method to their madness.

From ESPN: "Multiple sources told ESPN there's been pushback from a number of schools, including Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, to play those late-November night games under the new contract. That leaves Petitti to figure out how to uphold a deal for hundreds of millions of dollars for primetime games without cooperation from some of the league's marquee teams for part of the regular season's most important month.

Athletic departments and coaches around the Big Ten say they were surprised November night games would be part of the deal. They weren't asked for permission to play them prior to the deal or informed of the change ahead of the deal, according to sources. At the same time, NBC wasn't aware until well after the initial contract was signed this summer that these big-brand schools had historic tolerances that were part of the prior television arrangements and would resist being available.

"NBC was surprised, and I was surprised," said Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel. "We had not discussed, and I had not discussed with anyone in the league to change the tolerances we had agreed upon years ago."

Within the industry, though, there was an expectation that, considering the scope of the deal, all schools would play in prime time.
"The fault here is with the administrators on campus," said another industry source. "How did the presidents, chancellors and athletic directors not know this? The universities all signed off on the deal."

While this is being worked through, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State recently agreed to concessions to make short-term sacrifices to help the league make up for some lost revenue from the NBC deal."

 

[MadNY3]

Wildhack will be in his seventies when ACC GOR is up. Basically, like getting Boeheim in his seventies. He's already a dinosaur from the Era of cable tv.

If you think we are completely fine for over a decade due to GOR, I wish you well.

 

[CousCuse]

Syracuse has a long history with the Big 10 institutionally and in athletics. And, every time a Big 10 team comes to the dome for basketball or football, the game is a huge event and the games have often been barn burners. Also when Syracuse plays at a Big 10 school they send a lot of fans. The Big 10 people know this. Syracuse is a solid fit for the Big 10, academically, athletically and geographically. If given similar resources, Syracuse can compete with the large state schools and has in the past even without them.

 

[UnknownOrange]

The tweets from Oregon/Washington softball players really sucks. The Olympic sports get crushed in all of this.

The only thing that makes sense for Syracuse if the ACC starts getting dissolved is the Big 10.

 

[Nick44]

I don’t even want Syracuse to get an invite to the mega leagues. I just want hoops in the Big East and them to let FB play in the also ran conference.

They already made that decision 40 years ago when they followed the Big East and the leaders of that conference bet on basketball. Fast forward to today, the football program is not great and basketball is in transition at best?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

that wont pay the bills

1. Of course it will. That conference will make more money than we did 10 years ago. We can figure out how to run an AD on that.

2. The national B12 will not make a significant amount more, and our programs will be stuck as mediocre. It is still a loser conference. I rather take a little less money, be a lot more competitive, and play like minded schools in a Northeastern centric conference.

 

[sutomcat]

When we hit a recession before the next contracts, the Big money contracts are going to collapse.
The SEC, and Big 10 contracts are up first
, they both could be in for a shock.

The economy was a huge factor when the ACC signed a contract around 2010. The economy was bad, and espn made a low ball offer.

There really was no other competition back then and the ACC, desperate for cash, signed it. As they fell behind other conferences whose contracts expired at better times, the ACC kept extended their bad deal to get small increases that ensured they would get paid under market prices all the way to 2036.

I don’t know what the economy will look like when the next round of contracts is negotiated. Imho, regardless of the economy, the next round of contracts for college sports are going to be significantly less lucrative.

Cord cutting reduces income for espn and fox. For a long time, these companies were making a lot of money from people who had no interest in their content. Every day more people cut the cord and these companies lose more revenue.

Then there are the ‘me too’ movements for the athletes. Instatransfer and NIL will imho drive a significant number of fans from college sports. All the nonsensical realignment activity will also inevitably take its toll on viewership.

Espn is switching to a streaming model. That will be theor primary source of revenue by the time the next round of contracts comes up.

How many cord cutters will sign up for espn as a separate service? What will the impact be on espn’s bottom line? You know it will hurt or espn would have done this a long time ago.

How will cutting a significant number of current P5 schools and regions out from representation in espn affect the number of people who subscribe to espn?

I think it is inevitable that all these factors will drive down the offers conferences get tue next time around. Significantly. I think s lot of schools will be shocked by what they find.

As will the conferences.

Note that Oregon and Washington are getting half shares to join the B1G. Fox/NBC would not pay full price for these two very very good athletic programs lees that a year after the B1G announced their new contracts.

If TV revenue drops by 50%, does it still make sense for conferences like the B1G to send Olympic teams all over the country? Would this drive contraction? Another round of realignment to get conference ms better aligned georgraohically to lessen travel costs and travel time and impact on athletes?

A man can hope.