ACC Tournament projection 5.0 w/who we want to win this week.

[cuse522]

Here's some help from RPIforecast.com on the value of those wins...

Current RPI: 80 (NCAA site has us at 79, so perhaps all of these will be one spot high)

In a vacuum (aka I removed the GT game to calculate the others, so each one is standing alone):
Beat Georgia Tech: 77
ACCT Win vs. Virginia: 68
ACCT Win vs. Virginia Tech: 69
ACCT Win vs. Miami: 69
ACCT Win vs. Duke: 66

Since they're all about the same, I'll just run the ones below as if we get Virginia every time in the ACCT.

Beat Georgia Tech, Lose to Virginia: 80
Lose to Georgia Tech, Beat Virginia: 81

But, of course that leaves one more game...
Lose to Georgia Tech, Beat Virginia, Lose to UNC: 81 (odd, I thought it would improve our RPI just to play UNC on a neutral floor)

A win over Carolina would take us to 68, then a loss to someone else would drop us back to about 70.

But, if we beat Georgia Tech, beat the first round ACCT opponent (I used UVA), then lose to UNC, we go to 66.

That seems odd to me... That W, W, L is better for our RPI than a combination that includes a win over UNC. How is that possible?

Anyway, our upside appears to be mid 60s, our downside is low 80s in those scenarios...

Also if we lose to GT, stay in the 8/9 game and lose it, we'd go to 96. If we lose to GT, beat BC in the 10/15, then lose to the 7 seed (I stuck with UVA to keep it simple), we'd be at 95. Lose to GT, beat BC, beat the 7 (again UVA), lose to Louisville gives us 81.

So if you think we need to be in the low 80s or better, we must win EITHER against GT, or win an ACCT game on Wednesday.

 

[orangenirvana]

ACC Standings(using my scenario)

6. Syracuse (10 - 8) Defeated Virginia Tech
7. Virginia Tech (10 - 8) lost to Syracuse

Does your scenario involve a flux capacitor and the ability to change the past?

 

[Briancuse]

worst case scenario for SU if they win is UVA loss, VT loss, Miami win. That leaves Miami 6, VT 7, and SU/UVA in the 8/9 game. Any other scenario involving SU winning Saturday I'm fine with.

I want no part of Uva, give me Tech or Miami.

 

[Chris02M]

Does your scenario involve a flux capacitor and the ability to change the past?

Yes

 

[Ish88888]

Pitt at UVA is Noon Saturday, so we'll know by the time SU tips off if there's any hope of escaping 8/9. UVA wins that first game it's over johnny, it's over!

Its funny how people on this board are worried about positioning and matchups when we arent even projected to be in the tourney.

 

[Knicks411]

Its funny how people on this board are worried about positioning and matchups when we arent even projected to be in the tourney.

Doesn't that make it more important?

 

[orange79]

Its funny how people on this board are worried about positioning and matchups when we arent even projected to be in the tourney.

Ummm, 83+% of the 124 brackets tracked by the Bracket Project (which tracks bracket projections on line) have us in.

 

[Ish88888]

Doesn't that make it more important?

What? People are worried about the #9 OR #10 seed, when at best we are in dayton trying to play into the 11 or 12 seed as projected. This team deserves no favors.

 

[Ish88888]

Ummm, 83+% of the 124 brackets tracked by the Bracket Project (which tracks bracket projections on line) have us in.

Both guys, lunardi and palm that normally get it right have us out or play in at the #11 or #12 seed in Dayton. Not interested in these % metric bs things. If we don't win 2 more we will be sweating it. We have done NOTHING away from the dome.

 

[Alsacs]

Everyone is assuming since we are
7-1 at home during conference play we will beat Georgia Tech.

If we don't beat Tech the NCAAT is unlikely happening. Thus by assuming the win as fans we want to find a way to avoid the 8-9 game.

We aren't avoiding the 8-9 game unless Pitt beats UVA and FSU beats Miami.

 

[Alsacs]

Both guys, lunardi and palm that normally get it right have us out or play in at the #11 or #12 seed in Dayton. Not interested in these % metric bs things. If we don't win 2 more we will be sweating it. We have done NOTHING away from the dome.

Lunardi sucks.
The guy has obvious biases that affect his work. How anyone could look at our resume last year with the neutral court wins and win at Duke we shouldn't be in was a moron.

I looked at the resumes and following the committee protocols we weren't close to below the teams he had in.

Lunardi is lucky he was first as he sucks at bracketlogy.

 

[Ish88888]

Lunardi sucks.
The guy has obvious biases that affect his work. How anyone could look at our resume last year with the neutral court wins and win at Duke we shouldn't be in was a moron.

I looked at the resumes and following the committee protocols we weren't close to below the teams he had in.

Lunardi is likely he was first as he sucks at bracketlogy.

I don't like him either, but last year, cuse getting in was his only miss. He is pretty accurate.

 

[Alsacs]

I don't like him either, but last year, cuse getting in was his only miss. He is pretty accurate.

He missed 3.
He lets his biases affect him. Myself and Jncuse could do better if we spent the time do it.

Look at SOS/quality wins/ non conference schedule.

 

[Ish88888]

He missed 3.
He lets his biases affect him. Myself and Jncuse could do better if we spent the time do it.

Look at SOS/quality wins/ non conference schedule.

Not sure we can boast SOS. we have hung out in the dome playing the cornells of the world till January for years. Yes, i like the wisky game this year but we sucked against yhe johnnies, GT, and uconn. All bad teams.

 

[Alsacs]

Not sure we can boast SOS. we have hung out in the dome playing the cornells of the world till January for years. Yes, i like the wisky game this year but we sucked against yhe johnnies, GT, and uconn. All bad teams.

Look at the bubble. It is ridiculously weak. If the selections were 64 we would be screwed. With 4 extra spots and brand cache we have we are on the bubble.

Teams like Providence, Rhode Island, Vandy, Clemson, TCU are on the bubble.

We have wins over Duke, Virginia, Florida State these wins are great.

Beat Tech and we might be in.

 

[dasher]

Look at the bubble. It is ridiculously weak. If the selections were 64 we would be screwed. With 4 extra spots and brand cache we have we are on the bubble.

Teams like Providence, Rhode Island, Vandy, Clemson, TCU are on the bubble.

We have wins over Duke, Virginia, Florida State these wins are great.

Beat Tech and we might be in.

Lunardi has us as a 10 seed. FWIW which isn't much

 

[orange79]

Look at the bubble. It is ridiculously weak. If the selections were 64 we would be screwed. With 4 extra spots and brand cache we have we are on the bubble.

Teams like Providence, Rhode Island, Vandy, Clemson, TCU are on the bubble.

We have wins over Duke, Virginia, Florida State these wins are great.

Beat Tech and we might be in.

Agreed. I would say the odds are 60-40 we are are in with a win over GT and no others. Much higher if we win a game in the ACCT.

 

[Alsacs]

Lunardi has us as a 10 seed. FWIW which isn't much

I think he is hedging because of being wrong on us so much.

I don't see us that strongly in. Beat GT and win the first ACCT game and we will be a 10 seed.

 

[jdubs30]

Both guys, lunardi and palm that normally get it right have us out or play in at the #11 or #12 seed in Dayton. Not interested in these % metric bs things. If we don't win 2 more we will be sweating it. We have done NOTHING away from the dome.

Palm is an idiot.

Also, credit to jncuse for this - but over the last 7 years, the BracketMatrix has missed 11 TOTAL teams; that's 1.5 teams a year. That has nothing to do with "% metric bs" - you're looking at 2 guys who aren't any better than anyone else in the field but since they are on CBS and ESPN - people just assume they are the best.

Fact is, if come Selection Sunday BracketMatrix has us in field, chances are we will be.

 

[Knicks411]

What? People are worried about the #9 OR #10 seed, when at best we are in dayton trying to play into the 11 or 12 seed as projected. This team deserves no favors.

This is all about the acc tournament.

 

[Ish88888]

Look at the bubble. It is ridiculously weak. If the selections were 64 we would be screwed. With 4 extra spots and brand cache we have we are on the bubble.

Teams like Providence, Rhode Island, Vandy, Clemson, TCU are on the bubble.

We have wins over Duke, Virginia, Florida State these wins are great.

Beat Tech and we might be in.

I get it. But, we have 3 great wins at home, and after that we are a neurotic, inconsistent team at best.

 

[Ish88888]

This is all about the acc tournament.

Agree, think with a GT win along with 1 ACCT win, we should be ok.

 

[pearl31]

Both guys, lunardi and palm that normally get it right have us out or play in at the #11 or #12 seed in Dayton. Not interested in these % metric bs things. If we don't win 2 more we will be sweating it. We have done NOTHING away from the dome.

you should consider not posting about tourney-related stuff anymore

 

[Ish88888]

you should consider not posting about tourney-related stuff anymore

Ok, pro, so your argument as to how we are CURRENTLY in?

 

[Knicks411]

It's possible that we can both be currently in the field (for whatever that means, which is nothing) and still have work to do. If the last 6 or 8 teams in the field lost out, they wouldn't be in the field.