ACC tournament projection v.7.5 | Syracusefan.com

ACC tournament projection v.7.5

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Alsacs

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The last projection
1. Florida State 15-4 ( beat UL x2)
2. Louisville 15-4
3. Virginia 14-5 (beat Duke h2h)
4. Duke 14-5
——— Byes into Quarterfinals
5. Syracuse 10-9
Georgia Tech 10-9 Ineligible for ACCT
6. NC State 9-10 (2-1 vs. ND/CU
7. Notre Dame 9-10 (1-1 vs. NCSU/CU)
8. Clemson 9-10 (1-2 vs. NCSU/ND)
9. Boston College 7-12 (beat VPI x2)
10. Virginia Tech 7-12
——— BYEs into second round
11. North Carolina 6-13 (2-1 vs. Wake/Miami
12. Miami 6-13 ( 1-1 vs. UNC/Wake
13. Wake 6-13 (1-2 vs. UNC/UM)
14, Pittsburgh 6-14

All games are on ESPN, ESPN2 or the ACC Network in Greensboro, NC

First Round Tuesday March 10th

Game 1- #12 seed Miami vs.#13 seed Wake Forest @ 12:00
Game 2 - #11 seed North Carolina vs. #14 seed Pittsburgh @ 2:00


Second Round Wednesday March 11th

Game 4 - #8 seed Clemson vs. #9 seed Boston College @ Noon
Game 5- #5 seed Syracuse vs. Game 1 winner @ 2:30
Game 6 - #7 seed Notre Dame vs. #10 seed Virginia Tech @ 7:00
Game 7- #6 seed NC State vs. Game 2 winner @ 9:30

Quarterfinals Thursday March 12th

Game 8 - #1 seed Florida State vs.Game 4 winner @ Noon
Game 9 - #4 seed Duke vs. Game 5 winner @ 2:30
Game 10 - #2 seed Louisville vs. Game 6 winner @ 7:00
Game 11- #3 seed Virginia vs.Game 7 winner @ 9:30

Semifinals Friday March 13th

Game 11 - Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner @ 7:00
Game 12 - Game 10 winner vs. Game 11 winner @ 9:30

Finals Saturday March 14th

Game 13 - Game 11 winner vs. Game12 winner @ 9:00

Friday
Georgia Tech at Clemson
Wake at NC State

Saturday
Syracuse at Miami
Virginia Tech at Notre Dame
Louisville at Virginia
Boston College at Florida State
North Carolina at Duke

If we win we are the 5 if NC State loses we are pretty locked in to the 5.

The most important games for seeding are Duke-UNC and Louisville-Virginia.
 
Florida State is going to be the 1 seed if they win.
If they lose and UVA/Duke win then the top 4 would come down to a crazy tiebreaker.
1. Florida State 15-5 (3-2 beat UL x2)
2. Virginia 15-5 (3-2 1-1 vs. UL
3. Louisville 15-5 (2-3)
4. Duke 15-5 (1-2)

Duke has had a really easy ACC schedule.
No x2 with any of the other ACC tournament teams except maybe NC State.
 
So if we win or NC State losses, were the 5 seed

5 plays the winner of the 12/13 game

- If we beat Miami, they finish 6-14. If NC State beats Wake, Wake finishes 6-14. This way even if UNC loses to Duke, UNC (who has the tie breaker) would get the 11 seed. Like many have said we want to avoid UNC round 1

I just want to do whatever it is needed to be done to avoid UNC, even if it means losing to Miami!
 
Everything broke correctly for us to finish 5th in the ACC. Hopefully we bring our A game on Saturday and shut down the Miami 3-point shooters -- Lykes and Vasiljevic and Wong and McGusty. Miami shot 12% against GT and 25% against UVA yesterday on 3s. Unfortunately they are due.
 
sugrad68 said:
Everything broke correctly for us to finish 5th in the ACC. Hopefully we bring our A game on Saturday and shut down the Miami 3-point shooters -- Lykes and Vasiljevic and Wong and McGusty. Miami shot 12% against GT and 25% against UVA yesterday on 3s. Unfortunately they are due.
Expand...
They’re last in ACC in 3pt % during conference play (28%) and 243rd nationally (31.8%). I know we said that about UNC too so we’ll see
 
jdubs30 said:
So if we win or NC State losses, were the 5 seed

5 plays the winner of the 12/13 game

- If we beat Miami, they finish 6-14. If NC State beats Wake, Wake finishes 6-14. This way even if UNC loses to Duke, UNC (who has the tie breaker) would get the 11 seed. Like many have said we want to avoid UNC round 1

I just want to do whatever it is needed to be done to avoid UNC, even if it means losing to Miami!
Expand...

In the scenario you mentioned, wouldn't there be a 4 way tie with UNC, Wake, Miami & Pitt? I believe Pitt would win the tiebreaker and get the 11 seed, right? UNC would be the 12, etc.
 
ApexSUFan said:
In the scenario you mentioned, wouldn't there be a 4 way tie with UNC, Wake, Miami & Pitt? I believe Pitt would win the tiebreaker and get the 11 seed, right? UNC would be the 12, etc.
Expand...
You’re correct...my fault
 
Alsacs said:
Duke has had a really easy ACC schedule.
No x2 with any of the other ACC tournament teams except maybe NC State.
Expand...
Yep. Cherie linked this in the Conference Stats thread. It's the conference SOS. Duke in last, according to this site.

1583417662581.png
 
ApexSUFan said:
In the scenario you mentioned, wouldn't there be a 4 way tie with UNC, Wake, Miami & Pitt? I believe Pitt would win the tiebreaker and get the 11 seed, right? UNC would be the 12, etc.
Expand...

I don't think this is exactly right. I believe you are correct about the four way tie, however it would go to a "mini conference" tiebreaker.

UNC (2-3)
v Wake 1-1
v Miami 1-0
v Pitt 0-2

Wake (2-2)
v UNC 1-1
v Miami 0-1
v Pitt 1-0

Miami (2-2)
v UNC 0-1
v Wake 1-0
v Pitt 1-1

Pitt (3-2)
v UNC 2-0
v Wake 0-1
v Miami 1-1

11 Pitt
Miami/Wake tied at 2-2 but Miami beat Wake
12 Miami
13 Wake
14 UNC
 
Cuse4403 said:
I don't think this is exactly right. I believe you are correct about the four way tie, however it would go to a "mini conference" tiebreaker.

UNC (2-3)
v Wake 1-1
v Miami 1-0
v Pitt 0-2

Wake (2-2)
v UNC 1-1
v Miami 0-1
v Pitt 1-0

Miami (2-2)
v UNC 0-1
v Wake 1-0
v Pitt 1-1

Pitt (3-2)
v UNC 2-0
v Wake 0-1
v Miami 1-1

11 Pitt
Miami/Wake tied at 2-2 but Miami beat Wake
12 Miami
13 Wake
14 UNC
Expand...

Even better... this would be the best case scenario. Thanks for keeping me honest!
 
Fairly certain we have the 5 right?

Amazing to even type that. 5 seed with 9 losses in the ACC and not close to in the tournament!
 
jdubs30 said:
They’re last in ACC in 3pt % during conference play (28%) and 243rd nationally (31.8%). I know we said that about UNC too so we’ll see
Expand...
Lykes likely wearing a mask, if he plays at all. so we've got that going for us. Which is nice

I know JB doesn't like the advanced zone breakdown stats, and who the numbers say is at fault. A better measure is who gets subbed after missing an assignment. By my count, against BC it was Buddy twice and Joe once. Hopefully the scolding worked cause all they've got to do is guard the line tomorrow and they win.
 
UnderHisOwnPower said:
Lykes likely wearing a mask, if he plays at all. so we've got that going for us. Which is nice

I know JB doesn't like the advanced zone breakdown stats, and who the numbers say is at fault. A better measure is who gets subbed after missing an assignment. By my count, against BC it was Buddy twice and Joe once. Hopefully the scolding worked cause all they've got to do is guard the line tomorrow and they win.
Expand...

Wow, I hope you're right. But Va went into Miami with a 6 game win streak and ranked. But was only favored by 2.5 and barely escaped with a 2 point win. The line will be close to a pick and I think we better bring our A game. A lot of things have happened to get us onto the 5 seed line, let's hope we dont blow it by laying an egg. At least it's a road game;)
 
ORRange said:
Wow, I hope you're right. But Va went into Miami with a 6 game win streak and ranked. But was only favored by 2.5 and barely escaped with a 2 point win. The line will be close to a pick and I think we better bring our A game. A lot of things have happened to get us onto the 5 seed line, let's hope we dont blow it by laying an egg. At least it's a road game;)
Expand...
Virginia plays the slowest tempo in college basketball.
They won't be a big favorite on the road against any P5 team.

Virginia's playing style makes it stupid for them to lay a lot of points. Their previous road game they barely won at Virginia Tech. Miami-Syracuse is going to be a tough game but UVA plays ugly against almost everyone.

They held Duke 10 points lower than their previous lowest scoring game.
 
ORRange said:
Wow, I hope you're right. But Va went into Miami with a 6 game win streak and ranked. But was only favored by 2.5 and barely escaped with a 2 point win. The line will be close to a pick and I think we better bring our A game. A lot of things have happened to get us onto the 5 seed line, let's hope we dont blow it by laying an egg. At least it's a road game;)
Expand...
Even without Lykes, their leading scorer, if he sits it doesn't mean some random dude won't go off for 8 3s on their Sr night. and while they have a horrible record, they've had the toughest ACC schedule. No doubt the boys have to ball, but this is a game they should win with him, easily without him.
 
Alsacs said:
Virginia plays the slowest tempo in college basketball.
They won't be a big favorite on the road against any P5 team.

Virginia's playing style makes it stupid for them to lay a lot of points. Their previous road game they barely won at Virginia Tech. Miami-Syracuse is going to be a tough game but UVA plays ugly against almost everyone.

They held Duke 10 points lower than their previous lowest scoring game.
Expand...
Tempo had nothing to do with the closeness of the score vs. Da U. Our slump of horrendous shooting in conference games nearly lost it for us. It's one thing to take 20 seconds to shoot and actually score (like last year) and it's quite another to take 20 seconds to shoot and clank the rim. Fortunately for us, once Lykes got injured, their shooting wasn't much better.
 
So if WF loses tonight and Cuse wins tomorrow, they’d be locked into the 5 seed and avoid UNC right?
 
Hoo's That said:
Tempo had nothing to do with the closeness of the score vs. Da U. Our slump of horrendous shooting in conference games nearly lost it for us. It's one thing to take 20 seconds to shoot and actually score (like last year) and it's quite another to take 20 seconds to shoot and clank the rim. Fortunately for us, once Lykes got injured, their shooting wasn't much better.
Expand...

I think I saw the game was 9-9 after 13 minutes, and Huff scored the first 17 points for you, then didn't score again. Just some remarkable occurrences that happen in Tony's brand of basketball. He distills it down to very little margin for error.
 
If Georgia Tech wins tonight it means we will be the 5 or 6.
We would finish second in a 3rd way tie with Notre Dame and NC State.

If NC State loses tonight we can't finish below 6th either.

Bad news is we can finish 8th.
If ND, NC State, Clemson all win and we lose to Miami
It would go
5. Notre Dame 4-2
6. Clemson 3-3 2-1 mini tiebreaker beat Florida State
7. NC State 3-3 2-1 mini tiebreaker
8. Syracuse 3-3 1-2 mini tiebreaker

We would play Miami in the 8-9 game unless UNC beat Duke then it would be UNC.

Meaning we need an upset or to win to avoid the 8-9 game.
 
What do we need to happen to avoid UNC and then avoid Duke? I would rather not have to face those teams in Greensboro in this tournament. All the tiebreakers can be too challenging to figure out.

Who do we need to root for tonight and then tomorrow?
 
To guarantee to avoid UNC and Duke requires

Louisville beat Virginia
Duke beats UNC
Puts 1. Florida State
2. Louisville
3. Duke
4. Virginia

then if we beat Miami. NC State beats Wake, Notre Dame beats Virginia Tech and we get
5. Syracuse
6. NC State 2-1 vs. ND/CU
7. Notre Dame 1-1 NCSU/CU
8. Clemson
9. Boston College
10. Virginia Tech

11. Pittsburgh
12. Miami
13. Wake Forest
14. North Carolina

So Both Duke and UNC would be on the other side of the bracket.

If you want this.
You want Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, NC State, Notre Dame to win.

If Virginia beat Louisville then Duke would be the 4 seed and you would want Syracuse to lose to Miami to avoid the 5 seed.
 
Alsacs said:
To guarantee to avoid UNC and Duke requires

Louisville beat Virginia
Duke beats UNC
Puts 1. Florida State
2. Louisville
3. Duke
4. Virginia

then if we beat Miami. NC State beats Wake, Notre Dame beats Virginia Tech and we get
5. Syracuse
6. NC State 2-1 vs. ND/CU
7. Notre Dame 1-1 NCSU/CU
8. Clemson
9. Boston College
10. Virginia Tech

11. Pittsburgh
12. Miami
13. Wake Forest
14. North Carolina

So Both Duke and UNC would be on the other side of the bracket.

If you want this.
You want Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, NC State, Notre Dame to win.

If Virginia beat Louisville then Duke would be the 4 seed and you would want Syracuse to lose to Miami to avoid the 5 seed.
Expand...
The OP should be paying you for running the scenarios, Al. Nice job
 
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