ACC tournament projection v.7.5

[Alsacs]

Updated thru Friday
1. Florida State 15-4 (beat UL)
2. Louisville 15-4
3. Virginia 14-5 (beat Duke)
4. Duke 14-5
——BYEs into Quarterfinals
Georgia Tech 11-9 Ineligible for ACCT
5. Syracuse 10-9
6. NC State 10-10
7. Notre Dame 9-10
8. Clemson 9-11
9. Boston College 7-12( beat VPI)
10. Virginia Tech 7-12
——Byes to second round
11. North Carolina 6-13 (beat Miami)
12. Miami 6-13
13. Wake Forest 6-14( beat Pitt)
14. Pittsburgh 6-14

With Clemson losing and NC State winning we will be 5 or 6 seed.
Beat Miami we are the 5 seed.
If we lose and ND wins
5. NC State
6. Syracuse
7. Notre Dame

If we lose and ND lose
Same result.

 

[Alsacs]

To get away from UNC I think we need the 5 seed.
If we get 6 I think it will be UNC vs. Pitt in the 11-14 matchup

 

[Briancuse]

To get away from UNC I think we need the 5 seed.
If we get 6 I think it will be UNC vs. Pitt in the 11-14 matchup

If we we lose to Miami and unc loses to duke we would get Miami again right?

 

[Alsacs]

Miami is playing tomorrow for a first round bye.
If they beat us and BC loses to Florida State or Notre Dame Beats Virginia Tech they get a bye.

They will be motivated.
I want UNC on the other side of our bracket.

 

[Alsacs]

If we we lose to Miami and unc loses to duke we would get Miami again right?

No if we lose Miami would move up to 9 seed if both BC and VPI lose.
If either of them won they would be 10.
If both won then they would be 11 and would get Miami vs. Wake in 11-14 and Pitt-UNC in the 12-13.

 

[pearl31]

it will be UNC vs. Pitt in the 11-14 matchup

they have to beat Duke to get the 11

 

[rocfan44]

When we beat Miami and if UNC loses to Duke. It will be 11- Pitt, 12 - Miami, 13- WF, 14 - UNC. So we would still have a shot at seeing Miami b2b which I would not want.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

When we beat Miami and if UNC loses to Duke. It will be 11- Pitt, 12 - Miami, 13- WF, 14 - UNC. So we would still have a shot at seeing Miami b2b which I would not want.

I don't get this concern about Miami on a neutral. I do understand wanting no part of UNC

 

[rocfan44]

I don't get this concern about Miami on a neutral. I do understand wanting no part of UNC

Playing a team back to back like that allows them plenty of time to make adjustments to what they just saw days ago. I just think it makes it harder for us.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

How did GT go 11-7 against everyone else?

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Playing a team back to back like that allows them plenty of time to make adjustments to what they just saw days ago. I just think it makes it harder for us.

Sure but I take it over UNC.

There is a reason ACCT wins are rare for us. We just want the easiest teams. I think the top 3 could get knocked off before we’d see them and we have a semi final vs a lower seed honestly.

 

[Alsacs]

they have to beat Duke to get the 11

If we beat Miami and Duke beats UNC the bottom 4 will be

11. Pittsburgh 6-14 ( 3-2 vs. UNC/UM/WF)
12. Wake Forest 6-14 (2-2 vs. Pitt/UNC/UM) beat Duke
13. Miami 6-14 ( 2-2 vs. Pitt/UNC/WF
14. North Carolina 6-14( 2-3 vs. WF/UM/Pitt)

So as the 5 seed we would get the winner of WF-Miami.

As long as we win and Duke win.

If we lose I am going to wait for the BC/VPI games as they would affect Miami which work it’s way as high up as 9 seed.

 

[jdubs30]

If we beat Miami and Duke beats UNC the bottom 4 will be

11. Pittsburgh 6-14 ( 3-2 vs. UNC/UM/WF)
12. Wake Forest 6-14 (2-2 vs. Pitt/UNC/UM) beat Duke
13. Miami 6-14 ( 2-2 vs. Pitt/UNC/WF
14. North Carolina 6-14( 2-3 vs. WF/UM/Pitt)

So as the 5 seed we would get the winner of WF-Miami.

As long as we win and Duke win.

If we lose I am going to wait for the BC/VPI games as they would affect Miami which work it’s way as high up as 9 seed.

Simple enough, hopefully it plays out that way

 

[20plus]

What are the scenarios for the top four seeds? Seems interesting because they are all separated by one game or less!

 

[Alsacs]

Not buying UNC will go into Duke and beat them so this is assuming Duke wins.

Florida State, Virginia, Duke win
1. Florida State 16-4
2. Virginia 15-5 ( 3-2 mini tiebreaker)
3. Louisville 15-5 (2-3 mini tiebreaker
4. Duke 15-5 (1-2 mini tiebreaker)

Floride State, Louisville, Duke win
1. Florida State 16-4 beat UL x2
2. Louisville 16-4
3. Duke 15-5
4. Virginia 14-6

Florida State loses, Virginia, Duke win
1. Florida State 15-5 (3-2 mini tiebreaker beat ULx2
2. Virginia 15-5 (3-2 mini tiebreaker)
3. Louisville 15-5 (2-3 mini tiebreaker)
4. Duke 15-5 (1-2 mini tiebreaker)

Florida State loses, Louisville, Duke win
1. Louisville 16-4
2. Duke 15-5 beat FSU
3. Florida State 15-5
4. Virginia 14-6

Only scenario FSU isn’t the one seed.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

A 9 seed having 12-13 losses is awful. The 1 seed having 5 losses wouldn’t be good. Tge 5 seed being barely over .500 isn’t good. But the 15 having 6 losses is pretty good.

So the top is weak, the bottom strong, and the middle non existent.

 

[blust2i3d4]

A 9 seed having 12-13 losses is awful. The 1 seed having 5 losses wouldn’t be good. Tge 5 seed being barely over .500 isn’t good. But the 15 having 6 losses is pretty good.

So the top is weak, the bottom strong, and the middle non existent.

If UNC played B1G this year, they would finish top 5 in B1G.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Everything broke correctly for us to finish 5th in the ACC. Hopefully we bring our A game on Saturday and shut down the Miami 3-point shooters -- Lykes and Vasiljevic and Wong and McGusty. Miami shot 12% against GT and 25% against UVA yesterday on 3s. Unfortunately they are due.

They don’t get open looks against those two teams. They will get open looks against any zone. SU just needs to push them off their spots and make them uncomfortable. This is another game where a win puts us in good shape, but we’ve seen this movie before and they never turn out well.

 

[jdubs30]

If UNC played B1G this year, they would finish top 5 in B1G.

So you think a team that will most likely finish 11th in a conference that will send 4 (or 5) teams to the tournament, would have finished top 5 in a conference that will send at least 8 teams?

interesting

 

[orange79]

Playing a team back to back like that allows them plenty of time to make adjustments to what they just saw days ago. I just think it makes it harder for us.

So, your post got me thinking. I went back and looked at the records in the JB era (76-77 season through present). I knew there were several times this has happened, but I wanted to see the record. The results were a bit eye-opening.

It has happened 5 times that we have closed the regular season with an opponent and the faced them in the very next game in the conference tournament.

The surprising thing is that we are 5-0 in the conference tournament rematch, while being 2-3 in the previous game. The results are below. I'm not sure if this supports your theory or not (small sample size, one bounce the other way and we're 3-2 in the final regular season game, etc.). But I thought it was interesting.

Year	Team	Final Game​	Conf Tourney​
80-81	St. John's	L​	W​
82-83	G'town	L​	W​
91-92	Nova	L​	W​
92-93	Pitt	W​	W​
95-96	ND	W​	W​

 

[Alsacs]

If UNC played B1G this year, they would finish top 5 in B1G.

Not sure I agree Ohio State a middle tier Big Ten team went into Chapel Hill with Cole Anthony on the team and pounded UNC.

 

[NineOneSeven]

If UNC played B1G this year, they would finish top 5 in B1G.

Now this is an interesting take

 

[nycfan]

So, your post got me thinking. I went back and looked at the records in the JB era (76-77 season through present). I knew there were several times this has happened, but I wanted to see the record. The results were a bit eye-opening.

It has happened 5 times that we have closed the regular season with an opponent and the faced them in the very next game in the conference tournament.

The surprising thing is that we are 5-0 in the conference tournament rematch, while being 2-3 in the previous game. The results are below. I'm not sure if this supports your theory or not (small sample size, one bounce the other way and we're 3-2 in the final regular season game, etc.). But I thought it was interesting.

Year	Team	Final Game​	Conf Tourney​
80-81	St. John's	L​	W​
82-83	G'town	L​	W​
91-92	Nova	L​	W​
92-93	Pitt	W​	W​
95-96	ND	W​	W​

Nice work J--I like the trend! And I am definitely also in the "avoid UNC" camp, even if it means playing Miami again right away. I also would love to see UVA lose, so that we get them in the quarters in the 4/5 game. If it plays out that way, there could be potential for a nice run next weekend.

 

[Knicks411]

Now this is an interesting take

It is definitely a take!

 

[littlereg]

Not sure I agree Ohio State a middle tier Big Ten team went into Chapel Hill with Cole Anthony on the team and pounded UNC.

While I agree with your statement, that Ohio State team plays based on the way the wind is blowing lol they’re so consistently insconsistent it’s insane.