Albany Thoughts

[General20]

This was the first game I really watched after being out of town for the first two, so forgive me if I repeat a few things that have already been talked about.

I happened to be changing planes in Atlanta while Syracuse played Manhattan. Amidst rushing from terminal A to terminal B in an attempt to catch my plane, I happened by an airport bar that actually had the game on TV. My traveling partners were upset when I stopped to take a long look. Apparently "Syracuse looks like they are playing Man" is not a good reason to miss your plane. Who knew?

I did end up getting to my own terminal a few minutes early, and caught a few minutes of the game. I came away thinking that Manhattan looked really bad. Boeheim always does things differently when he knows they are going to win, but that game had much more of an exhibition feel than a regular season blow out feel.

Onto the Albany game. I thought our guys phoned it in - especially on defense - and if I wanted to pick them apart I could find a hundred things they did wrong, but I hate any analysis of early season games that does nothing more than identify the few mistakes Syracuse makes and follows it with the sentence "they wont be able to get away with that against Big East teams." Its lazy, it gives little relevant insight, and most experts do it incessantly.

College basketball teams are fluid and always evolving. The mistakes they make now wont be the same mistakes that kill them later in the season. That is why the early season is about (or at least should be about) projecting, and making educated guesses. Breaking down a blow out is an exercise in futility.

Usually when teams are sloppy early in the year it leads to games that are closer than they should be against mid-majors. Its hard to imagine this team playing any mid-major (excluding the usual suspects who are actually very good teams) and the game being competitive. Last year we played a few very close games against mid-major teams, and we were good. This year we are better, and we are much deeper.

That said, depth is overrated. It looks great early in the year to have 10 really good players, because Beoehim would be playing 10 guys whether they were good or not, but the truth is, we can only play 5 at a time, and when things get tough its far more important to have 5 great players who work well as a unit. So, lets forget about depth for a minute and break down our individual players. Who will become a star? Who will play a supporting role?

I feel like, for whatever reason, I have a pretty good handle on this team. Prior to the season I predicted that Christmas would start and Cooney would red shirt. I also predicted that Jardine, Triche, Waiters, Joseph, Fair, Melo and Keita would definitely play. Jones would definitely not play. And Southerland, Christmas, and Carter-Williams would have to impress greatly to earn time on the court. After a few games I think all of those predictions have come true.

So far, Southerland is earning PT with his play. In fact, it is looking like he, Waiters, and Joseph are our three most deadly weapons against set defenses in the half court. If you ask me, scoring efficiently against set defenses is going to determine how far Syracuse goes this year, so Southerland has the potential to become an invaluable player. My prediction is that both his good play and his importance to the team continues. Southerland is finally looking like the high school recruit I got so excited about. The special thing about Southerland is that he shoots from everywhere, and can make it from everywhere. That is much different than most college players (even shooters) who have favorite spots they go to. The fact that Southerland moves all around, the fact that he shoots from everywhere, and the fact that he is 6'8, long, and has an exceptional vertical leap will make it very hard for defenses to keep track of him - add to this the fact that Syracuse never needs Southerland to create his own shot, just make open shots when they are presented to him, and you have a recipe for long term success. Hitting open shots is something Southerland can do all season, against anybody.

All freshmen go in one of two directions when conference play starts. Some improve despite the tougher competition because they were always capable and just needed a month or so to get their sea legs under them. Some fall off, needing more than a year to adapt to the tougher level of play in major college conferences. Because of our depth, neither Christmas nor Carter-Williams are really needed in the rotation. They will only continue to get meaningful playing time if they are the type of freshmen who improve despite the tougher competition. My guess is Carter-Williams is the type of freshman who will improve. He is supremely talented, and the increased competition of the Big East should not be too much for him to handle. Christmas is a little harder to judge. It will all come down to how much he is able to bang around with the big boys. My guess is he consistently improves over the course of the year but never earns a huge amount of minutes.

Jardine has not looked great so far, but to me that signifies nothing. More than any other player on the team Jardine is prone to playing to the level of his competition. I suspect Jardine will be very good by the time Big East play rolls around. Contrary to what many think, Jarine is a very smart basketball player. He knows when to be a facilitator and when to take the offense on his own shoulders. The problem last year was, we struggled too much on offense and Jardine tried to put more of the offense upon himself than he could handle. This year he will not have to do that. My guess is he plays smart, efficient, and within himself . . . at least once the Big East starts.

Joseph has improved in shooting dramatically every year he has been here, and I see no reason why that will not continue. His ability to Dominate the game from behind the arc as well as around the basket will lift him from a good player to a very good player.

For this team to be elite they need one of either Triche or Waiters to become an elite player. If either makes the leap we will have another star to take some of the load of Joseph and put Jardine in the facilitator role he is most suited for. Right now Waiters is looking like a guy who has made "the jump." He is quite simply the most physically talented player on our team. He now gets it defensively. My only concern is how he reacts to being the focal point of opposing defenses, because that is going to happen sooner rather than later.

I live in Syracuse, and I am a fan of Brandon Triche. I've noticed on this board that a lot of people think those two things go together. Personally, I couldn't care less that Triche comes from Syracuse. I like him because he is a technically proficient basketball player, and I have always believed (and continue to) that if you do things the right way and work hard enough you will see success. So far this season, much like last season, what we have seen out of Triche is a guy who does everything right and takes all the right shots, but just can't seem to get those shots to drop. Its way too early to write him off, but that is certainly a trend I dont like. I continue to believe that everything will come together for him sooner or later, I just hope that it happens this year.

Melo and Keita are both pretty good right now. They will both continue to improve as the season progresses, but Melo will improve more. He will improve more, because he has more physical talent and because he has more to learn. My guess is that by the end of the year Melo has a hammer lock on the center minutes played.

In the airport I talked to a guy who was complaining that Fair doesn't start. When I got home I checked out a box score and saw that Fair played more minutes than anybody else on the team. Making a big deal out of who starts and who does not is something I just dont get. Fair does a lot of things really well, but he will not score a ton of points. He is going to be a great role player for us, and will play starters minutes unless Southerland steals them. Right now its seems like Southerland will have more of an impact on Fair's minutes than anything else. But no matter what happens Fair will see the court a lot.

Overall I see a team lead by Joseph and Waiters, with Triche and Jardine in facilitators roles (those two and Carter-Williams will have a very interesting battle for PT as the year progresses). Southerland sees the court when it matters most spreading the D, and Melo controls the paint. Our depth helps us, but will not in itself do a lot of good in the tournament.

We are good enough defensively and in transition to win it all right now. We are not good enough offensively in half court sets. If that changes we can and should start thinking final 4.

 

[stuckinbig11]

Ideally, everyone will continue to play well and none of them will complain about minutes because they are more into winning.

 

[jordoo]

I hope you are correct about Scoop. I agree that he is most likely to play to the level of his competition.

 

[BlueCurtain]

This team will be comfortable against teams that prefer a faster tempo. On the other hand they will look "exposed" against teams that slow the tempo and take the entire shot clock. That's when efficiency in the half court becomes critical. If JB makes a concerted effort to keep the tempo fast and force turnovers (read: switching to m2m occasionally and pressing proactively) they can minimize the reliance on half court scoring.

 

[newmexicuse]

Nice post, I agree on almost all that you said. The one exception is your comment on CJ not scoring a ton. CJ can score more if he need to do so, but he is such a smart, unselfish player that he will only take good shots & not force anything. However, when you see those games when it seems like nobody's shot is falling, don't be surprise to see CJ somehow end up with his 15 to 18 points.

 

[orangefan13]

Agree Blue I hate talking about who takes the big shot in a close game. Why make the game close in the first place.

 

[EastCoast2]

some good insight

 

[General20]

This team will be comfortable against teams that prefer a faster tempo. On the other hand they will look "exposed" against teams that slow the tempo and take the entire shot clock. That's when efficiency in the half court becomes critical. If JB makes a concerted effort to keep the tempo fast and force turnovers (read: switching to m2m occasionally and pressing proactively) they can minimize the reliance on half court scoring.

I just dont think you can ever eliminate the need to score in half court over a 6 game tournament against the best teams. Over the past 10 years we have seen teams win it playing a fast tempo, a slow tempo, man D, zone D, press, just about everything you can imagine, but we have never seen a team win it all without scoring efficiently in half court sets.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Nice post. I do think the team depth will have an impact because it gives JB greater flexibility in employing different defenses. We can press now depending on who's on the court , it's been a long time since we've had that in our arsenal and been effective. Since some of the players who are currently better in the press aren't projected as starters - we shouldn't have to ever slow down the tempo because of fatigue or saving one's energy. Hopefully if we improve in our half-court sets, we won't have to use the press as much to dictate tempo or get us going.

 

[CiceroSwamp]

This was the first game I really watched after being out of town for the first two, so forgive me if I repeat a few things that have already been talked about.

I happened to be changing planes in Atlanta while Syracuse played Manhattan. Amidst rushing from terminal A to terminal B in an attempt to catch my plane, I happened by an airport bar that actually had the game on TV. My traveling partners were upset when I stopped to take a long look. Apparently "Syracuse looks like they are playing Man" is not a good reason to miss your plane. Who knew?

I did end up getting to my own terminal a few minutes early, and caught a few minutes of the game. I came away thinking that Manhattan looked really bad. Boeheim always does things differently when he knows they are going to win, but that game had much more of an exhibition feel than a regular season blow out feel.

Onto the Albany game. I thought our guys phoned it in - especially on defense - and if I wanted to pick them apart I could find a hundred things they did wrong, but I hate any analysis of early season games that does nothing more than identify the few mistakes Syracuse makes and follows it with the sentence "they wont be able to get away with that against Big East teams." Its lazy, it gives little relevant insight, and most experts do it incessantly.

College basketball teams are fluid and always evolving. The mistakes they make now wont be the same mistakes that kill them later in the season. That is why the early season is about (or at least should be about) projecting, and making educated guesses. Breaking down a blow out is an exercise in futility.

Usually when teams are sloppy early in the year it leads to games that are closer than they should be against mid-majors. Its hard to imagine this team playing any mid-major (excluding the usual suspects who are actually very good teams) and the game being competitive. Last year we played a few very close games against mid-major teams, and we were good. This year we are better, and we are much deeper.

That said, depth is overrated. It looks great early in the year to have 10 really good players, because Beoehim would be playing 10 guys whether they were good or not, but the truth is, we can only play 5 at a time, and when things get tough its far more important to have 5 great players who work well as a unit. So, lets forget about depth for a minute and break down our individual players. Who will become a star? Who will play a supporting role?

I feel like, for whatever reason, I have a pretty good handle on this team. Prior to the season I predicted that Christmas would start and Cooney would red shirt. I also predicted that Jardine, Triche, Waiters, Joseph, Fair, Melo and Keita would definitely play. Jones would definitely not play. And Southerland, Christmas, and Carter-Williams would have to impress greatly to earn time on the court. After a few games I think all of those predictions have come true.

So far, Southerland is earning PT with his play. In fact, it is looking like he, Waiters, and Joseph are our three most deadly weapons against set defenses in the half court. If you ask me, scoring efficiently against set defenses is going to determine how far Syracuse goes this year, so Southerland has the potential to become an invaluable player. My prediction is that both his good play and his importance to the team continues. Southerland is finally looking like the high school recruit I got so excited about. The special thing about Southerland is that he shoots from everywhere, and can make it from everywhere. That is much different than most college players (even shooters) who have favorite spots they go to. The fact that Southerland moves all around, the fact that he shoots from everywhere, and the fact that he is 6'8, long, and has an exceptional vertical leap will make it very hard for defenses to keep track of him - add to this the fact that Syracuse never needs Southerland to create his own shot, just make open shots when they are presented to him, and you have a recipe for long term success. Hitting open shots is something Southerland can do all season, against anybody.

All freshmen go in one of two directions when conference play starts. Some improve despite the tougher competition because they were always capable and just needed a month or so to get their sea legs under them. Some fall off, needing more than a year to adapt to the tougher level of play in major college conferences. Because of our depth, neither Christmas nor Carter-Williams are really needed in the rotation. They will only continue to get meaningful playing time if they are the type of freshmen who improve despite the tougher competition. My guess is Carter-Williams is the type of freshman who will improve. He is supremely talented, and the increased competition of the Big East should not be too much for him to handle. Christmas is a little harder to judge. It will all come down to how much he is able to bang around with the big boys. My guess is he consistently improves over the course of the year but never earns a huge amount of minutes.

Jardine has not looked great so far, but to me that signifies nothing. More than any other player on the team Jardine is prone to playing to the level of his competition. I suspect Jardine will be very good by the time Big East play rolls around. Contrary to what many think, Jarine is a very smart basketball player. He knows when to be a facilitator and when to take the offense on his own shoulders. The problem last year was, we struggled too much on offense and Jardine tried to put more of the offense upon himself than he could handle. This year he will not have to do that. My guess is he plays smart, efficient, and within himself . . . at least once the Big East starts.

Joseph has improved in shooting dramatically every year he has been here, and I see no reason why that will not continue. His ability to Dominate the game from behind the arc as well as around the basket will lift him from a good player to a very good player.

For this team to be elite they need one of either Triche or Waiters to become an elite player. If either makes the leap we will have another star to take some of the load of Joseph and put Jardine in the facilitator role he is most suited for. Right now Waiters is looking like a guy who has made "the jump." He is quite simply the most physically talented player on our team. He now gets it defensively. My only concern is how he reacts to being the focal point of opposing defenses, because that is going to happen sooner rather than later.

I live in Syracuse, and I am a fan of Brandon Triche. I've noticed on this board that a lot of people think those two things go together. Personally, I couldn't care less that Triche comes from Syracuse. I like him because he is a technically proficient basketball player, and I have always believed (and continue to) that if you do things the right way and work hard enough you will see success. So far this season, much like last season, what we have seen out of Triche is a guy who does everything right and takes all the right shots, but just can't seem to get those shots to drop. Its way too early to write him off, but that is certainly a trend I dont like. I continue to believe that everything will come together for him sooner or later, I just hope that it happens this year.

Melo and Keita are both pretty good right now. They will both continue to improve as the season progresses, but Melo will improve more. He will improve more, because he has more physical talent and because he has more to learn. My guess is that by the end of the year Melo has a hammer lock on the center minutes played.

In the airport I talked to a guy who was complaining that Fair doesn't start. When I got home I checked out a box score and saw that Fair played more minutes than anybody else on the team. Making a big deal out of who starts and who does not is something I just dont get. Fair does a lot of things really well, but he will not score a ton of points. He is going to be a great role player for us, and will play starters minutes unless Southerland steals them. Right now its seems like Southerland will have more of an impact on Fair's minutes than anything else. But no matter what happens Fair will see the court a lot.

Overall I see a team lead by Joseph and Waiters, with Triche and Jardine in facilitators roles (those two and Carter-Williams will have a very interesting battle for PT as the year progresses). Southerland sees the court when it matters most spreading the D, and Melo controls the paint. Our depth helps us, but will not in itself do a lot of good in the tournament.

We are good enough defensively and in transition to win it all right now. We are not good enough offensively in half court sets. If that changes we can and should start thinking final 4.

I agreed with everything except i will need to see more of Southerland playing well before i can consider it a possibility that he will be on the court over CJ and Joseph at crunch time at forward

 

[BlueCurtain]

Southerland will look great one game and score 0 points the next. Not convinced he's going to bring it every game. He's too finesse. When the team needs to close out defensive possessions, he doesn't have that "want to".

 

[jimsonjunction]

Nice post. I do think the team depth will have an impact because it gives JB greater flexibility in employing different defenses. We can press now depending on who's on the court , it's been a long time since we've had that in our arsenal and been effective. Since some of the players who are currently better in the press aren't projected as starters - we shouldn't have to ever slow down the tempo because of fatigue or saving one's energy. Hopefully if we improve in our half-court sets, we won't have to use the press as much to dictate tempo or get us going.

One thing I haven't seen as much in the early games is trapping. Boeheim is probably waiting to use it more and I think our length and depth will make it deadly. Carter-Williams trapping in the corner with guys like Southerland, Fair and Joseph looming to pick off the pass and start the break? Yes, please.

 

[OttoMets]

...

Hey, why'd you steal my thoughts and post them under your name?

I kid. Nice post. I don't quite agree on one of the ten players, or that we're ready defensively yet. But we're playing better than I thought we'd be at this point, so that's very encouraging. And our guys are talking and emphasizing defense in a way that suggests the appreciate the necessity of it.

Were I to hazard a guess, I'd say that Carter-Williams will prove himself unready come Big East time - maybe have a wild 20-point night against Providence or someone, but spend more time on the bench against the good teams than some would like. He'll be a good player, but it'll take some time. As you said, though, just a guess.

Right now, the puzzle pieces seem to fit better than they ever did last season.

 

[OttoMets]

Southerland will look great one game and score 0 points the next. Not convinced he's going to bring it every game. He's too finesse. When the team needs to close out defensive possessions, he doesn't have that "want to".

I think he's gone from not having that "want to" (for two years) to now not always exercising that "want to" (a couple defensive possessions in which he gave up a three last night, probably more to come).

His play is encouraging; he's a finesse guy, but he's shown more defensive tenacity and desire on the boards in these three games than in the entirety of his first two seasons. I'd say he's moving in the right direction.