Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season

[bpo57]

Not that we want to rely on "the eye test" but if anybody has actually watched BYU... that's not a tourney team.

Next year they could be really good if they give even a little bit of effort on defense, though.

That's one reason why I'm bearish on Gonzaga.

 

[jncuse]

I think Lorenzo Romar gave his players the Washington pep talk at a timeout.

"OK kids, you have let your talent do enough. Remember who your coach is. We underachieve here, now go prove it"

 

[OttoinGrotto]

That's one reason why I'm bearish on Gonzaga.

I'm always bearish on Gonzaga.

 

[jncuse]

Not that we want to rely on "the eye test" but if anybody has actually watched BYU... that's not a tourney team.

Next year they could be really good if they give even a little bit of effort on defense, though.

If they beat St. Mary's on a neutral court, they would be 6-6 vs the top 100, including 3 top 50 wins (although one is Vermont), and 2 top 25 wins on road or neutral courts.

Before you say it's just Gonzaga or St. Mary's they are legit top 25 teams under the numerical systems they have decided to trust.

That is definetely a resume that will be considered against some crappy P5 teams or an Illinois St for example.

They have 2 things going against them
1. They do have 3 really bad losses which will work against them... but let's forget there are teams that are in as of now that have 3 bad losses as well.
2. They lost close games on neutral courts to Illinois and USC, so there performance against the rest of the bubble will hurt them.

So if they beat St Mary's I would expect them to still come short, but not by much... and it would have nothing to do with the eye test.

 

[longtimefan]

Would have to see the BE format. Xavier may not be able to get a bad enough loss.

BE bracket is set. X gets DePaul, then Butler if they advance.

 

[jncuse]

Come on Davidson. This would be a real positive result for us. Rhode Island has less good on their resume so any loss is magnified. Can't lose to teams around 100-110 at home.

 

[jncuse]

BE bracket is set. X gets DePaul, then Butler if they advance.

Good - they still have a chance to mess it up. No tourney team seems to be coming in as shaky as them.

 

[jncuse]

Wichita St has pulled away from Missouri St. Up by 14. Sets up the matchup that was expected. A very weak conference this year outside of those 2 teams. The MVC tends to at least have more "decent non tourney" teams, but this year the MVC schedule is much more automatic than the WCC conference for example.

 

[jncuse]

That's one reason why I'm bearish on Gonzaga.

Better not piss on BYU too much. Their neutral court win vs BYU is one of the best things that USC has on its resume,

 

[bpo57]

Better not piss on BYU too much. Their neutral court win vs BYU is one of the best things that USC has on its resume,

I'm pissing on Gonzaga.

 

[bpo57]

RI in OT

 

[bpo57]

Betting window opens in about one hour.

OK OrangeNirvana. You said "no way" would the MVC get two bids. I'll bet you $50, $75, $100 whatever you want to bet (straight up) that the MVC gets two bids, regardless of the outcome of the MVC title game tomorrow. What do you say?

As an aside, watched Palm and Seth Davis on CBSSN about a half hour ago and both said Wichita State was not a sure thing yet to get an invite. Couple of stunods.

 

[jncuse]

I changed my mind on Illinois St. to highly unlikely. They are likely out if they lose tomorrow.

A 19-1 record in the MVC is totally empty this year. 18 of those wins are utter crap. They went 18-0 against 9 teams. 10 of those wins were to teams with an RPI of sub 200, The other 8 were against teams with RPI's between 140-190. Awesome stuff!! I guess you could argue they did better against bad teams than other bubble team. OK maybe other bubble teams go 16-2 or 17-1 against that 18 games of crap.

But the avoiding bad loss argument only goes so far after you look at the OOC. They lost to #230 Murray St, lost to Tulsa, lost to TCU, lost to San Francisco. The glamour wins were against New Mexico and Tulsa at home.

But since its apples and oranges we can look at individual rankings (other than RPI) to try put them over the top. They average around #50. Is that enough to give them the benfit of the doubt - likely not.

 

[bpo57]

Better not piss on BYU too much. Their neutral court win vs BYU is one of the best things that USC has on its resume,

How about the win over UCLA?

 

[bpo57]

I changed my mind on Illinois St. to highly unlikely. They are likely out if they lose tomorrow.

A 19-1 record in the MVC is totally empty this year. 18 of those wins are utter crap. They went 18-0 against 9 teams. 10 of those wins were to teams with an RPI of sub 200, The other 8 were against teams with RPI's between 140-190. Awesome stuff!! I guess you could argue they did better against bad teams than other bubble team. OK maybe other bubble teams go 16-2 or 17-1 against that 18 games of crap.

But the avoiding bad loss argument only goes so far after you look at the OOC. They lost to #230 Murray St, lost to Tulsa, lost to TCU, lost to San Francisco. The glamour wins were against New Mexico and Tulsa at home.

But since its apples and oranges we can look at individual rankings (other than RPI) to try put them over the top. They average around #50. Is that enough to give them the benfit of the doubt - likely not.

Then take me up on the bet I offered OrangeNirvana.

 

[jncuse]

OT - yikes. Washington hanging around,

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[bpo57]

Better not piss on BYU too much. Their neutral court win vs BYU is one of the best things that USC has on its resume,

Win over SMU wasn't too bad either.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[jncuse]

How about the win over UCLA?

One good win does not make a resume.

What about Indiana beating Kansas on a neutral floor and UNC.
What about Vanderbilt winning vs Florida (twice)?
What about Tennessee winning vs Kentucky?
What about Kansas St at Baylor?
What about Georgia Tech vs North Carolina?

What has USC done that much more than all of those teams?

EDIT - Yes, forgot about SMU. That is key.

 

[bpo57]

Rhody with the win in OT 73-70.

 

[bpo57]

One good win does not make a resume.

What about Indiana beating Kansas on a neutral floor and UNC.
What about Vanderbilt winning vs Florida (twice)?
What about Tennessee winning vs Kentucky?
What about Kansas St at Baylor?
What about Georgia Tech vs North Carolina?

What has USC done that much more than all of those teams?

EDIT - Yes, forgot about SMU. That is key.

USC won 74-58. They'll play UW again in the first round of the P-12. Assuming they win that game they would then play UCLA. A loss there would put them at 24-9 for the season. Three quality wins against UCLA, SMU and BYU and 13-0 OOC. Of their nine losses five would be against a trio that are three of the best teams in the country. Two other losses were one-pointers against Cal and ASU. With all of the flotsam and jetsam on the bubble it would strike me as very odd that that resume isn't good enough for an invite.

 

[bpo57]

This is not a bet off. Being willing to bet on something does not mean your comment makes any sense. Your counter argument is always to bet on it,

Year after year, it's the same thing. You make an argument that makes no sense and then you want to bet on it. And every year it's the same. I am right in the end. Whether it's bubble teams or seedings you make your own rules with total disregard. It's annoying to me and gets me upset.

Last year I avoided it by cutting you off around March and placing you on ignore which I will do again. There is a history here and maybe its more me at this point.

I do give you credit one year for wanting to pay me off on a bet that I never actually knew that I had committed too in the first place as I don't do internet bets. And I declined your offer to pay me. You are a man of your word, and I can't take that away from you. So in real life you may be a great person that would be a loyal and good friend. But on the internet I don't mesh with you. Maybe you mesh well with others so please feel free to interact with others on this and other threads.

You need to read your post here again. Maybe a few times. I understand your passion for NCAA hoops, many of us here have the same passion. But you are wayyy too quick to be mortally offended when some folks (not just me) disagree with you. You need to lighten up and not take this or yourself so seriously.

 

[bpo57]

This is not a bet off. Being willing to bet on something does not mean your comment makes any sense. Your counter argument is always to bet on it,

Year after year, it's the same thing. You make an argument that makes no sense and then you want to bet on it. And every year it's the same. I am right in the end. Whether it's bubble teams or seedings you make your own rules with total disregard. It's annoying to me and gets me upset.

Last year I avoided it by cutting you off around March and placing you on ignore which I will do again. There is a history here and maybe its more me at this point.

I do give you credit one year for wanting to pay me off on a bet that I never actually knew that I had committed too in the first place as I don't do internet bets. And I declined your offer to pay me. You are a man of your word, and I can't take that away from you. So in real life you may be a great person that would be a loyal and good friend. But on the internet I don't mesh with you. Maybe you mesh well with others so please feel free to interact with others on this and other threads.

And thanks for permitting me to interact with others on this thread.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Saturday's biggest winners (so far): Seton Hall, Syracuse, Vandy, Wake Forest. Biggest losers: Georgia Tech, Cal, Georgia. Status quo: Xavier, Rhode Island, K-State.